Saturday, July 2, 2011

Barron's: Get Ready for $150 Oil -- Again

Link here. (Requires a subscription but headline, first two paragraphs are the crux of the story. The good news -- not until next spring.

The U.S. economy is never completely ready for higher oil prices, which is one reason they take a nasty economic toll when they arrive. But readiness can be enhanced by awareness of the likely outlook for petroleum prices–and the outlook today is relatively grim, although probably not disastrous.

Despite the recent 20% decline from April highs, new highs on crude, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel and gasoline seem likely over the next 12 months. Following some further easing over the summer, the second leg of the long-term bull market in petroleum–the first occurred in 2007-08–probably will begin this fall.
So, we'll see. We seem to get these headlines / stories about every six months or so.

A big "thank you" to anonymous for alerting me to the link.

Front Page Story in LA TImes: Minot Flooding -- Residents' Resolve and Resiliance

Link here.
In Minot, endurance without complaint— the latter largely regarded here as unseemly and without much utility — is almost a matter of religion.

Planted in the remote North Dakota prairie in 1886 when the builders of the Great Northern Railroad set up their winter encampment, this city of 41,000 has always been a place of taciturn men and capable women.
Out on the farm, a pickup with a dead battery must be started in winds of 60 miles an hour at minus 25 degrees, because there's no one else to take an ailing aunt to the doctor.
People pull together. All but about 200 of those flooded out of their homes have found places to live with families and friends. "It's just part of the fabric of life up here," said SuAnne Drawz, who is hosting three evacuated families at her home on South Hill. "It's just what you do. It's the way we were raised."
Others have noted the same thing: the shelters are not being used except by a very small number. 

Rigs On Site By County -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA -- A Snapshot

Every once in awhile folks ask how many rigs in each county in North Dakota. The number, of course, changes, but in the big scheme of things, doesn't change a whole lot. This is a snapshot, taken from the GIS map server at the NDIC website, July 2, 2011.

Not exact numbers for the counties with double digit number of rigs, but pretty close.
  • Billings County: 4 rigs
  • Bottineau County: 2 rigs
  • Burke County: 3 rigs 
  • Divide County: 9 rigs
  • Dunn County: 29 rigs (about)
  • Golden Valley County: 1 rig
  • McKenzie County: 40 rigs (about)
  • Mountrail Country: 38 rigs (about)
  • Stark County: 2 rigs
  • Ward County: 1 rig
  • Williams County: 39 rigs (about)

North Dakota Makes The Top Ten List -- Among the Top Global Locations for Oil and Gas Investment Opportunities

Link here.
Eight U.S. states made the top 10 list of most attractive jurisdictions worldwide for oil and gas investment, according to Calgary-based Fraser Institute's Fifth Annual Global Petroleum Survey.

Mississippi, Ohio, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, Alabama and North Dakota made the top 10 of the All-Inclusive Composite Index; the Netherlands sector of the North Sea and Hungary also are among the top 10, the global policy think-tank reported.

Only Mississippi, Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama ranked in the top 10 in the 2010 survey, and were also among the top 10 in 2009.
For North Dakota to have made the list is quite impressive -- these are not just among the US states but ALL geographical locations worldwide. Here are the top ten:
  • Mississippi
  • Ohio
  • Kansas
  • Oklahoma
  • Texas 
  • West Virginia
  • Netherlands -- North Sea (the windmill capital of the world)
  • Alabama
  • Hungary -- shale gas?
  • North Dakota -- yea!
It's hard to believe Ohio, Kansas and Alabama beat out North Dakota. It would be interesting to know more about what these three states are doing.

Among the least attractive:
The least attractive countries for investment include Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Democratic Republic (Kinshasa), Iraq, Libya and Russia.
I guess a war drops you out of the running -- but even a war (Libya) is not as bad as Russia. Hmmm. 

The Gulf of Mexico plummeted from 11th place last year to 60th place this year, following the leak, then the moratorium, and now the permitorium. 

Based on his public comments, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar is probably hoping to move the Gulf to the top ten this next year. Or not.

Another region that dropped significantly was north shore Alaska. Who woulda thought?