Monday, July 19, 2021

Save Your Tears -- Back To The 80s -- July 19, 2021





I've only seen this phenomenon a couple of times -- at 1:01 when Ariana Grande appears from behind the curtains. 

Along that same note, watching the audience in masks reminds me of one of the best Rod Serling Twilight Zone episodes ever, "The Eye of the Beholder. " 

And then there's this, one billion views and counting.


Are Lana Del Rey and Ariana Grande friends? 

Lana and Ariana have both publicly supported each other multiple times. Lana revealed in interviews that she listens to Ariana's music before performing and revealed that she and Ariana were friends and would text each other. She also praised Ariana's vocal technique. From fandom.

Google: Ariana Grande, Lana Del Rey, Abel, Weeknd.  

From wiki, "Save Your Tears":

"Save Your Tears" is a song by Canadian singer the Weeknd for his fourth studio album After Hours (2020). 
The Weeknd wrote and produced the song with producers Max Martin and Oscar Holter, with Belly and Jason Quenneville receiving additional writing credits. The record was met with universal acclaim.

"Save Your Tears" reached the top five in thirty countries. 
The song was released as the album's fourth and final single on August 9, 2020 in Europe, and impacted US radio on November 24, 2020. 
It was the official theme song of WrestleMania 37. 
A remix of the song by Oneohtrix Point Never was officially released alongside the deluxe edition of its parent album on March 23, 2020. 
A second remix of the song, a collaboration with American singer Ariana Grande, was released on April 22, 2021, reaching number one on the Billboard Hot 100, becoming both artists' sixth number one single. This also made After Hours the first album since Drake's Scorpion in 2018 to have three singles from the same album reach number one. 
"Save Your Tears" spent 2 weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100.

Trying To Explain Covid-19 Hospitalization Rates -- July 19, 2021

Breaking: Canada will allow fully vaccinated US citizens into Canada on August 9, 2021, and those from the rest of the world on September 7, 2021.

*******************************
Now, Back To Hospitalization Rates

For the grandchildren, statistics. 

Link here

Folks are making it too difficult. This is a great example of why a good teacher can make such a positive impact. A good teacher is someone who can explain something in simple terms.



My hunch: Brian Williams and the NY Times editorial staff could figure that out based on the following:

One New Permit; Twelve Permits Renewed; The Day After -- Oil Plummets In Price Following Agreement By OPEC+ To Increase Production -- July 19, 2021

South Korea: will re-start three nuclear reactors to meet seasonal energy need. Link here.  

*************************
Back to the Bakken

MDU press release, link here. I believe this project may have been "fast-tracked" with the assistance of North Dakota's senators and congressman.

BISMARCK, N.D., July 19, 2021 -- WBI Energy, Inc., a subsidiary of MDU Resources Group, Inc., began construction this week on the North Bakken Expansion project in northwestern North Dakota.

This natural gas pipeline expansion will have capacity to transport 250 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from the Bakken Formation. WBI Energy received a notice to proceed on July 8 from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, allowing construction to commence.

"WBI Energy transports more than 50% of the natural gas produced from the Bakken. This project will bring WBI's total pipeline system capacity to more than 2.4 billion cubic feet per day while reducing natural gas flaring in the region by allowing producers to move more gas to market. Producers have reinforced their need for this additional capacity by committing to long-term transportation contracts with WBI," said David L. Goodin, president and CEO of MDU Resources. "We appreciate the support from state and federal officials who helped elevate the significance of this project for both its environmental and economic benefits."

The North Bakken Expansion project includes construction of approximately 63 miles of 24-inch natural gas pipeline and 30 miles of 12-inch natural gas pipeline, as well as a new compressor station and additional associated infrastructure. It is estimated to cost $260 million and, during peak construction, is expected to employ up to 450 people. WBI Energy expects to have the pipeline in service by the end of the year.

Active rigs:

$66.42
7/19/202107/19/202007/19/201907/19/201807/19/2017
Active Rigs2311556859

One new permit, #38431:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a permit for another Lindley well to be sited in NENE 7-153-90; Sanish oil field;
    • the well will be sited 268' FNL and 614' FEL

Twelve permits renewed:

  • Bruin (10): ten Fort Berthold permits, all in section 19-148-94, Dunn County
  • Resource Energy: a Beetle permit in Divide County;
  • EOG: a Burke permit in Mountrail County

Keystone XL - Lite -- Flipping The Capline -- July 19, 2021

An answer to the Keystone XL that was killed? Remember, the whole purpose of the Keystone XL pipeline (and other pipelines from the north, flowing south) was to bring heavier oil from Canada to the US refineries along the Texas-Louisiana gulf coast to "balance out" all that light WTI oil arriving at refineries configured to handle heavier oil.

Re-posting from earlier this morning:

RBN Energy: the St James crude oil hub readies for Capline-related changes, part 3. Archived.

In just a few months, heavy crude from Western Canada will start flowing south on the Capline pipeline from the Patoka, IL, hub to the one at St. James, LA. 
While the initial volumes will be modest, Capline’s long-awaited reversal will provide Louisiana refineries and export terminals with easier, lower-cost access to oil sands and other Alberta production. 
Flipping the pipeline’s direction of flow also means more changes for the St. James storage and distribution hub — one of the U.S.’s largest — which has already seen more than its share of evolution during the Shale Era. Today, we continue our Capline/St. James blog series with a look at St. James’s terminals and pipelines, the Louisiana refineries they supply, and the changes coming with the Capline reversal.

The obvious question is this: how does western Canadian oil sands oil get to Patoka. From RBN Energy (archived here; not-accessible to readers): 

There are five pipelines flowing into Patoka with a combined capacity of just over 2 MMb/d:

  • MPLX’s 454-Mb/d Woodpat Pipeline, which receives crude oil from two upstream pipelines — MPLX’s 360-Mb/d Ozark Pipeline from Cushing and Enbridge’s 145-Mb/d Platte Pipeline from Casper and Guernsey, WY. The Platte Pipeline transports heavy Western Canadian crude fed into it by the Express Pipeline as well as light crude produced in the Bakken, the Powder River Basin, and the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin.
  • TC Energy’s 590-Mb/d Keystone Pipeline — not to be confused with the company’s now-dead Keystone XL — which runs from Hardisty, AB, to Steele City, NE; from there, one spur of the pipeline heads east to Wood River and Patoka and the other heads to the Cushing hub, where it connects to TC Energy’s Marketlink Pipeline to the Gulf Coast.
  • The 570-Mb/d Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which runs from the Bakken to Patoka and which is co-owned by Energy Transfer (with a ~36% share), Enbridge (with ~28%), Phillips 66 (with 25%), MPLX (with ~9%), and ExxonMobil (with ~2%). DAPL is part of the Bakken Pipeline System, which also includes the 742-mile Energy Transfer Crude Oil Pipeline (ETCOP; mustard line) from Patoka to Nederland, TX. (Our most recent review of DAPL was Don’t Wanna Lose You in February, 2021.)
  • Enbridge and MPLX’s 300-Mb/d Southern Access Extension Pipeline, a 168-mile connector between Flanagan, IL, and Patoka that receives Western Canadian crude oil from Enbridge’s 900-Mb/d Southern Access Pipeline (light purple line), which is part of Enbridge’s 2.9-MMb/d Mainline system. (Enbridge holds a 65% ownership interest in Southern Access Extension and MPLX holds 35%.)
  • ExxonMobil and Enbridge’s 100-Mb/d Mustang Pipeline, which runs from Lockport, IL (a suburb of Chicago) to Patoka. (ExxonMobil has a 70% stake in Mustang and Enbridge has a 30% stake.)

A CLR Dvirnak Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- July 19, 2021

The well:

  • 20807, 831, CLR, Dvirnak 3-7H, Jim Creek, Bakken, t12/11; cum 454K 3/20; see this post; cum 496K 5/21; 

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2021312746273510724523403173
BAKKEN4-202130274328041142437139760
BAKKEN3-2021313124299713334792434330
BAKKEN2-202128275028981089360232250
BAKKEN1-2021312997291213083731329517
BAKKEN12-202021192919759452601228545
BAKKEN11-20203031823188144948454326114
BAKKEN10-202031350935151655575653370
BAKKEN9-202030381638531742584554410
BAKKEN8-202031377138851668517747580
BAKKEN7-20203042333725179547504099250
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202031371440621648523348220
BAKKEN4-20202838163801179151324656102

Is Mass Transit Dead? Other Than Airlines, Of Course, And Perhaps Light Rail Along The Northeast Corridor -- July 19, 2021

Link here.

This story is no longer a story. 

Anyone with an open mind can see it.

Here in north Texas the light rail from Ft Worth to DFW -- designed to bring DFW employees who live in Ft Worth to work -- runs practically empty. The system is only a couple of years old; the cars are sleek and brand new; it runs very, very quietly. I was pretty sure it wasn't going to work but if it served a need, then I certainly was not against it. But it certainly appears it's a debacle.

From Powerline today, a similar story (at the link above). 

I would argue the US Postal Service and Amtrak are necessary national assets and needed to be financed as such. Light rail in communities across the country? Not so much. 

From the linked article:

Where I live, the Twin Cities metro area, transit ridership peaked 100 years ago and has progressively declined ever since. Nevertheless, liberal planners have spent billions on light-rail trains that hardly anyone rides. And here, as nationally, transit ridership has fallen off a cliff post-covid. So why are vast amounts of money still being pumped into obsolete mass transit schemes?

Demands for more subsidies, however, are a dead end for transit. We have already reached the point where the main constituencies for transit subsidies are union transit workers and transit contractors, not transit riders. At some point, people are going to realize that hardly anyone outside of New York City needs transit anymore, and taxpayers and voters will demand an end to those subsidies.

And, then again, we have the Proterra story

*********************************************
Beautiful Sight

Yesterday, late afternoon. 90+ degrees. Somewhat cloudy. Five hundred units in this apartment. One large pool and one smaller pool. This is the smaller pool and I had it all to myself. 

OPEC Basket -- For The Archives -- Last Posted Price Before The OPEC+ - UAE July, 2021, Crash -- July 19, 2021

For the archives, link here.

Last posted price was Thursday, July 15, 2021.

Overnight, Sunday, July 18, 2021 - Monday, July 19, 2021, Brent crashed after OPEC+ forced to agree to an increase in production beginning next year. 

From Tsvetana Paraskova, "oil prices crash after OPEC+ reaches deal to ease cuts." 

Oil prices dropped by 5 percent early on Monday, with WTI Crude slipping to $67 per barrel, after OPEC+ decided on Sunday it would start returning 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.

5.8 million / 400,000 = 14.5 months.

Is Anyone Even Paying Attention? July 19, 2021

The way folks are talking about "the delta variant" would make one think it's the most dangerous virus out there since ... well, at least since the "alpha variant." 

This is the most recent data. Of course, most people don't believe the numbers for myriad reasons. 

From yesterday, states ranked by "new deaths" reported. Of the 57 US states, only seven reported any deaths due to Covid in the previous twenty-four hours. 

The states with the largest outbreaks right now and of most interest, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, none of them were on the list. 

California reported one Covid-related death. New Jersey, three. Texas and New York each reported nine Covid-related deaths.

And over this, folks are talking about whether another lockdown is necessary.

Saudi Arabia Update -- Sudden Decision To Cancel Motiva Expansion Plans -- July 19, 2021

This chart simply amazes me: link here. Story here by Charles Kennedy.

How can a country make such a huge mistake -- they could not have seen the global lockdown coming, but that much oil that fast, under any circumstances? What were they possibly thinking?

But look what else amazes me: Saudi Arabia is only exporting five million bbls/day. Five million bbls? Is that what the Permian and Bakken are producing each day? 

And then this from earlier this month -- Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves are plummeting.

Saudi Arabia foreign change reserves, link here. I think this is an all-time low in modern history.



I still think Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo. 

Even though the new production quotas don't go into effect until next year, Saudi Arabia knew exactly what would happen if OPEC+ voted to increase production ... and Saudi Arabia was exactly correct.

Overnight, Brent went from $76 to $69
. Perhaps a bit of hyperbole, but not much.

Saudi can't make it on $70-oil, much less Brent with a "6-handle."

Saudi is in panic mode.

One sign of panic mode is corroborated by evidence of flip-flopping overnight on long term strategy.

Some months ago, part of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia made huge announcements about turning to value-added industries, like refining and petrochemical. At one time, Saudi was going to be the world's leader in solar energy; that plan was also scrapped years ago.

Now, again, Saudi Arabia flip-flops again, in panic mode.

An exclusive in today's WSJ: Saudi-owned Motiva suspends $6.6 billion petrochemical expansion. In other words, Saudi can't even manage a $7-billion expansion for the first/second biggest economy in the world, the US. What was Saudi's rationale?

Saudi Aramco is putting the expansion on hold as it shifts capital-spending focus to oil, natural gas fields. 

And look what's mentioned in the lede at the article:

Saudi-owned Motiva Enterprises LLC suspended a $6.6 billion plan to add petrochemical facilities to its refining operations in Port Arthur, Texas, according to people familiar with the matter.

The decision to halt the project—which had envisioned the creation of the biggest refining and petrochemical operation in the U.S.—comes as Aramco dials back its diversification plans and refocuses on its core business of pumping oil and natural gas, according to the people.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Aramco had slowed the petrochemical project amid a review last year of investments at home and abroad. The review followed financial pressure from lower oil prices and a heavy dividend burden that Aramco took on when it went public in 2019.

Wow, how many times have we talked about that heavy dividend burden?

That dividend: $75 billion annually

$6.6 billion / $75 billion = 8.8%.

The article continues:

The state-run company now plans to invest almost all of its $35 billion capital expenditure budget this year toward boosting oil and natural-gas production, according to people familiar with those plans. Aramco said last year it was working to increase its oil production capacity by one million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day.

Five years ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to unshackle the economy from oil exports by 2020. But as the world’s top crude exporter seeks to maintain growth and generate jobs, the kingdom is redoubling its commitment to hydrocarbons. Amid moves by governments, investors and other oil companies to transition away from fossil fuels and the greenhouse gases they emit, Saudi Arabia is betting that the world will need its crude for the foreseeable future.

State-run Aramco took full ownership of Motiva and its Port Arthur refinery in 2017 from joint-venture partner Royal Dutch Shell PLC. Shell took some of the U.S. company’s other assets as part of the deal. At the time, the company was pushing to expand its global refining and petrochemical business as a way of locking in buyers of its crude and controlling more of the value chain of its oil.

Under Saudi ownership, Motiva bought a separate Port Arthur petrochemical plant in 2019. A few months earlier, it had filed for approval to spend $6.6 billion to build two new petrochemical plants in addition to its existing 630,000-barrels-a-day Port Arthur refinery. That plan is now shelved, the people said.

Now, back to this graphic posted earlier today:

So, the high point for Saudi Arabia is around 11.8 million boepd and now they are scrapping a $6.6 billion expansion project to try to move production from "12 million boepd" to 13 million boepd. 

The state-run company now plans to invest almost all of its $35 billion capital expenditure budget this year toward boosting oil and natural-gas production, according to people familiar with those plans.  

Aramco said last year it was working to increase its oil production capacity by one million barrels a day to 13 million barrels a day

Saudi Aramco's annual dividend is more than twice its annual CAPEX. 

One more graphic from today's social media.


My hunch: China filled its SRP with inexpensive oil and will now quit buying new oil until prices come down again. We always talk about "swing producer." No one ever talks about "swing consumer." 

China is in the driver's seat as far as "swing consumer" goes. They simply switch to coal when oil and natural gas become too expensive.

Inflation? This Should Help -- WTI Drops Below $70 -- July 19, 2021

Inflation? This should help --

  • WTI below $70
  • ten-year treasury: yield below 1.200%
  • apparently lumber has plummeted in price -- needs to be fact-checked

Look closely at this scary-looking chart, and look at it from the view of a retired couple, on Medicare, in their 70s, with no children living at home, and no children in college. Link here.

Monday Morning -- Holy Mackerel: When BLM Basketball Used To Report 17 Million+ Viewers, Finals Fifth Game Coming In Under 7 Million -- July 19, 2021

Ten-year treasury: 1.190%. Inexplicable. No one seems to understand this. 

Chips: chip shortage reaches smartphone makers. Link to The WSJ

Shipments are slowing and customers are seeing their first significant price increases in years. Some companies have had to scale back production and delay new releases. All this has halted what had been a strong start to the year.

Smartphone makers, for much of the year, avoided the parts disruptions faced in the auto, personal computer and home-appliance industries. Phone manufacturers purchase key parts roughly a half a year in advance, but now those stockpiles have shrunk.

The chip supply struggles aren’t distributed evenly across the smartphone industry. Apple Inc., which accounts for about a sixth of the 1.3 billion smartphones sold annually, has stayed out of trouble given its supply-chain clout, according to industry analysts, as have most of Samsung’s premium devices. But that still leaves more than 80% of the smartphone industry reeling for parts.

Headline: US Olympic female gymnast tests positive.

  • doesn't mention: the affected gymnast was an alternate
  • asymptomatic
  • in Athletes Village in Tokyo

Citi's Prestige card: link here --

  • Citi has stopped taking applications for its $495-a-year Prestige card;
  • will not cut off / close current Prestige accounts
  • will encourage alternate products including the no-annual-fee Citi Custom Cash Card
  • many banks have tried to match the success of AmEx in the world of premium credit cards, which take years to become profitable for a bank. While it’s the world’s largest credit-card issuer, Citigroup isn’t known for its premium products, posing another challenge in attracting customers and persuading them to spend hundreds of dollars in annual fees year after year
  • Citigroup’s move comes as banks ramp up efforts to lure affluent customers to their cards as they travel and dine out again with the Covid-19 pandemic easing.
  • earlier this month, AmEx revamped its popular Platinum card, adding new perks tied to private jet access and hotel stays and upping the annual fee to $695.

Market:

  • DISH / ATT: enter into 10-year deal;
  • Pepsico: on a day the market is down 500+ points; down 2%; Pepsico is up $1.38. up 0.93%; trading at $157.34
  • Moderna: up $13.08; up 4.38%; trading at $298.97;
  • Amgen: up $1.59; up 0.64%; trading at $249.83

Covid lockdowns: "single biggest public health mistake, possibly of all history." -- US News, June 25, 2021. Link here

Anas: I have mixed thoughts about Anas Alhajji. Can't quite figure him out. Seems insecure. He regularly needs to point out how prescient his tweets have been. Link to his tweet today.

  • energy demand will continue to increase
  • we need all sources of energy
  • peak oil demand or not, oil will play a significant role for centuries to come;
  • do not fool yourself: there is nothing sustainable. All solar and wind projects have a maximum of 25 - 30 year life span.

Olympics: is it just me or does it seem that there's not a lot of pre-Olympic marketing. One wonders how many folks in the US actually realize the "Opening Ceremonies" are scheduled for later this week? Harmed by:

  • all that anticipatory excitement delayed for over a year;
  • no one sure if it was even going to "happen" this year
  • the "Lebron James" effect: professional athletes' comments hurting "amateurs";
  • superspreaders in Athletes' Village

BLM Finals: "The Bucks beating the Suns in game five of the NBA Finals does not get great TV ratings."
link here (warning: there are more ads on this page than there is reporting; pitiful):

The Milwaukee Bucks beating the Phoenix Suns in game five of the NBA Finals didn’t put up monster TV ratings.

According to TVSeriesFinale.com, the Bucks beating the Suns and taking a 3-2 lead in the series averaged 6.35 million viewers on ABC in the early data.

Due to it being a live sporting event, the final number for the game will rise once more data rolls in, but it’s still not great.

As I’ve said many times, the NBA used to get huge ratings in the NBA Finals. Just a few years ago, the numbers were north of 17 million viewers without any issue.

From the BLM Finals link above:


Global Petroleum Production -- July 19, 2021

Easy: to convert "quads" to boe

In the very, very small print at the EIA link below: 

More petroleum and natural gas was produced in the United States than in any other country during 2020 (a trend that began in 20214), despite year-on-year declines from the record-high production in 2019.

Timeline:

  • 2000: Bakken boom began in Montana
  • 2007: Bakken boom began in North Dakota
  • 2010: Bakken hitting its stride
  • 2014 - 2016: Saudi opens the tops to try to crush US shale
  • 2020: OPEC+ voluntarily cuts back
  • 2022: OPEC+ will increase quotas by 400K/month every month until back to pre-cut quotas.

Today:

From August 21, 2021:

 

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; Data Not Yet Posted -- July 19, 2021

WTI: drops below $70.

  • inflation? What inflation?
  • reminder: Jim Cramer called the top in oil last week, WTI at $72

Ten-year treasury: 1.190%. Inexplicable.

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$69.44
7/19/202107/19/202007/19/201907/19/201807/19/2017
Active Rigs2311556859

Two wells coming off the confidential list:

Monday, July 19, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:

  • None.
Sunday, July 18, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:
  • 37479, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1E TFH, Elidah, no production data; not reported at NDIC yet today;
Saturday, July 17, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 186 for the year; not reported at NDIC yet today;
  • 35560, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-95-31-30-20MBH, McGregor, producing,

RBN Energy: the St James crude oil hub readies for Capline-related changes, part 3. Archived.

In just a few months, heavy crude from Western Canada will start flowing south on the Capline pipeline from the Patoka, IL, hub to the one at St. James, LA. 
While the initial volumes will be modest, Capline’s long-awaited reversal will provide Louisiana refineries and export terminals with easier, lower-cost access to oil sands and other Alberta production. 
Flipping the pipeline’s direction of flow also means more changes for the St. James storage and distribution hub — one of the U.S.’s largest — which has already seen more than its share of evolution during the Shale Era. Today, we continue our Capline/St. James blog series with a look at St. James’s terminals and pipelines, the Louisiana refineries they supply, and the changes coming with the Capline reversal.