Closing The Loop On Buffett On Paramount -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46920BUFFET.

Tag: Paramount, PARA, TSM.

Is it just me or does it seem Buffett is having a string of bad luck: SNOW, TSM, PARA.

I don't recall if it was in a series of e-mails in a sidebar conversation or if I talked about it on the blog. But it was my belief that Buffett was making a mistake when he began acquiring Paramount.  Things started to fall apart a couple of months ago when it was revealed he was starting to sell off his position. Today, more bad news for Paramount. Tag: Skydance.

 I occasionally track Buffett here.

WTI At $87; Two New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; Grayson Mill With Several Dry Holes -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46919B.

War! Oil surges! Iran to attack Israel?

Enbridge: wins approval to commence service on Louisiana Venice natgas pipe project. Link here.

The Venice extension was designed to supply gas to Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana, which is under construction and expected to enter service between 2024 and 2026.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $86.92 ... let's call it $87!

Two new permits, #40642 and #40643:

• Operators: MRO, Enerplus
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County); Eagle Nest (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Six permits renewed:

• Kraken: three Turbodiesel and three Apollo permits, Big Stone, Williams County;

Permit reinstatement:

• 40362, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 10TFH,

Dry hole:

• 40421, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 XW 1H,
• 40431, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 7H,
• 40423, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 8H,

Oh-Oh -- Here We Go -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46918B.

Pay attention to Lousiana Light Sweet -- some see LLS as a proxy for Bakken (also light sweet). Difference of course is proximity to refiners.

Permian: existing wells break even at $37.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Tickers at the close:

• CVX: up slightly; pretty much flat
• DVN: down 23 cents;
• MPC: up $1.32;
• EPD: down 12 cents;

Market spooked by one of the Fed presidents saying "what's wrong with higher for longer?"

Two Views -- Same Data -- Different Interpretations -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46917ARCHIVES.

The market the past year:

Bankruptcy rates:

US oil exports:

Another perspective:

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Meanwhile At Trader Joe's

"4-buck Chuck." Based on the empty shelf to the right, it does appear former President Trump is correct with regard to broken supply chains.

I don't know if my wife has ever visited Trader Joe's! LOL. I'm sure she has, but if so, it's been a long time. Me? I probably haven't been to Trader Joe's in the past two years, maybe even perhaps not since before Covid.

What a pleasant visit today. I didn't buy any wine but a must-try seasoning:

Just in time for summer.

Demographics -- The Southern Surge -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46917ECONOMY.

Updates

April 7, 2024, link here:

The daily march of migrants across the Southern border has been a political curse for President Joe Biden. But for the economy, it may have turned out to be a blessing.

By adding millions of new workers to the labor market, the immigration surge has lifted payrolls and growth, and potentially helped keep a lid on consumer prices, according to recent research. Capitol Hill’s budgeteers also think it stands to reduce the deficit in the coming years.

In an analysis published earlier this week, Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden White House economist, found that the post-pandemic pickup in immigration accounted for at least one-fifth of the increase in U.S. gross domestic product since the end of 2019. Though it wasn’t the only factor, the boost from migrants helped explain why the American economy has bounced back much more strongly than those of other developed countries, he argued.

This is so incredible. I first talked about this in a post on July 23, 2022, almost two years ago.  

In the [2024 - 2009 = ] fifteen years since I've been blogging, I've done four deep-dives of which I'm most proud:

• Netflix: "the next big thing"
• Devon: best operator in the Permian
• Nvidia: I pivoted from energy to semiconductor chips
• the Southern Surge: the $7 trillion gift

Original Post

That southern surge. The $7 trillion gift. Link here.

The linked Barron's story.

The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 children per woman.

It is expected to level out this year at 1.70 births per woman, and remain there through 2054.

Demographics and aging trends could create significant headwinds for economic growth, as aging populations historically have experienced declines in work, productivity, and spending. But the news isn’t all bad, says Matthias Doepke, an economics professor ... with a title so long it won't fit on two lines.....

The future isn’t written in stone, he notes, while the experience of other countries in similar straits should offer the U.S. a road map to maximizing opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.

Doepke has spent much of his career studying how political and cultural changes affect economic development, with a focus on how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility choices. He recently spoke with Barron’s about the impact of demographic changes on the labor market, and the so-called demographic dividend.

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Reposting From Last Month

It started here.

Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.

From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").

The $7-trillion gift.

Link here.

Those states that best manage the new immigrants will do best.

The Break-Even For Existing Oil Wells In The Permian — $37 — Source — April 4, 2024

Locator: 46916WTI.

Too Important To Be Buried -- Re-Posting -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46914JOBS.

Jobs, Carl Q, link here:

Jobs, Liz Sonders, link here:

EVs: A Tidal Change In The Offing? April 4, 2024

Locator: 46913EVS.

Just an hour or so ago, I suggested that the "Tesla-delivery" story may have been a watershed moment in the history of EVs -- see the re-post below. Now this, perhaps the most successful auto manufacturer in the US, link here or direct to CNBC:

 

Tides of change: LinkedIn -- Ramachandran S.

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Re-posting

Locator: 46910B.

Tesla: perhaps the biggest story this year. Is the EV house of cards about to fall? The Tesla story is bigger than just Tesla. Its #1 competitor won't hit its stride for at least two years and will sell its cars at a loss when it does. US EV makers tend not to operate that way. 

From CNBC:

From Barron's:

Hertz: post-mortem, Carl Q. Link here. Or direct to Bloomberg.

Looking For Another Great Day In North Texas -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46912B.

For my extended family member: if looking to sell 10% of your AAPL for BRK-B, this might be a good day. This note is for a single individual. Not a recommendation.  

Personal investing: add to my position in VZ today, again. No recommendation; see disclaimers. When I first started investing, advice from one of the best investors ever, my dad: look for companies at "6, 6, 6."  The best I can do these days is "$40, 15, 6%."

Home ownership: baton passed to millennials. I thought the meme was millennials were interested in travel, destinations, services, not home ownership . Link here.

Jobs, Liz Sonders, link here:

Trans Mountain: link here.

Amazon packaging: link here.

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Eating At Home

I can't even imagine what this would have cost in high-end restaurant. 

Caprese salad, baby octopus, salmon, fresh baby spinach, green beans, rice.

I now prefer Ponzu for salmon, rather than traditional soy sauce. And -- wow -- recently discovered nori komi furikake on rice -- easily available, either at Walmart or online at Amazon.

US Economy -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46911B.

Jobs, Carl Q, link here:

Jobs, Liz Sonders, link here:

Reality: time to get a grip. Link here. Are you better off than you were four years ago -- you know, the lockdown, Covid-19, the mandated vaccines, etc., and now this:

Automobile repossessions: on the other hand, bad news with regard to cars. Link here. But there are stories everywhere.

Millennials are increasingly seeing their cars face repossession, with calls to attorneys regarding the topic reaching levels not seen since the pandemic. Amid economic pressures from sticky inflation, increasing layoff announcements, and escalating living costs, the Millennial demographic is particularly vulnerable

Financial distress signals are loud and clear as individuals struggle to navigate the challenges posed by an economy that's squeezing their wallets and threatening their mobility.

Thursday -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46910B.

Tesla: perhaps the biggest story this year. Is the EV house of cards about to fall? The Tesla story is bigger than just Tesla. Its #1 competitor won't hit its stride for at least two years and will sell its cars at a loss when it does. US EV makers tend not to operate that way. 

From CNBC:

From Barron's:

Hertz: post-mortem, Carl Q. Link here. Or direct to Bloomberg.

Futures: bull market moves again today? Pre-market:

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Back to the Bakken

 WTI: $85.40.

Friday, April 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter, 205 for the year
37571, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 6-7H,

Thursday, April 4, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 203 for the year
36083, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-10,

RBN Energy: Uinta Basin waxy crude on a roll as gas takeaway constraints are dealt with.

The Uinta Basin in northeastern Utah, which may be the quirkiest production area in the Lower 48, is firing on all cylinders. Production of the basin’s unique waxy crude is at an all-time high, the natural gas takeaway constraints that had threatened to limit growth are being resolved, and demand for waxy crude is on the rise. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll provide an update on the Uinta, where the crude looks and feels like shoe polish and is trucked and railed — not piped — to market.