Thursday, April 4, 2024

Closing The Loop On Buffett On Paramount -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46920BUFFET.

Tag: Paramount, PARA, TSM.

Is it just me or does it seem Buffett is having a string of bad luck: SNOW, TSM, PARA.

I don't recall if it was in a series of e-mails in a sidebar conversation or if I talked about it on the blog. But it was my belief that Buffett was making a mistake when he began acquiring Paramount.  Things started to fall apart a couple of months ago when it was revealed he was starting to sell off his position. Today, more bad news for Paramount. Tag: Skydance.

 I occasionally track Buffett here.

WTI At $87; Two New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; Grayson Mill With Several Dry Holes -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46919B.

War! Oil surges! Iran to attack Israel?

Enbridge: wins approval to commence service on Louisiana Venice natgas pipe project. Link here.

The Venice extension was designed to supply gas to Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines LNG export plant in Louisiana, which is under construction and expected to enter service between 2024 and 2026.
December 15, 2024: Plaquemines up and running. Link here.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $86.92 ... let's call it $87!

Two new permits, #40642 and #40643:

  • Operators: MRO, Enerplus
  • Field: Bailey (Dunn County); Eagle Nest (McKenzie)
  • Comments:

Six permits renewed:

  • Kraken: three Turbodiesel and three Apollo permits, Big Stone, Williams County;

Permit reinstatement:

  • 40362, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 10TFH,

Dry hole:

  • 40421, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 XW 1H,
  • 40431, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 7H,
  • 40423, Grayson Mill, Scott 13-24 8H,

Oh-Oh -- Here We Go -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46918B.

Pay attention to Lousiana Light Sweet -- some see LLS as a proxy for Bakken (also light sweet). Difference of course is proximity to refiners.

Permian: existing wells break even at $37.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Tickers at the close:

  • CVX: up slightly; pretty much flat
  • DVN: down 23 cents;
  • MPC: up $1.32;
  • EPD: down 12 cents;

Market spooked by one of the Fed presidents saying "what's wrong with higher for longer?"

Two Views -- Same Data -- Different Interpretations -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46917ARCHIVES.

The market the past year:

Bankruptcy rates:

US oil exports:

Another perspective:

******************************
Meanwhile At Trader Joe's

"4-buck Chuck." Based on the empty shelf to the right, it does appear former President Trump is correct with regard to broken supply chains.


I don't know if my wife has ever visited Trader Joe's! LOL. I'm sure she has, but if so, it's been a long time. Me? I probably haven't been to Trader Joe's in the past two years, maybe even perhaps not since before Covid.

What a pleasant visit today. I didn't buy any wine but a must-try seasoning:

Just in time for summer.

Demographics -- The Southern Surge -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46917ECONOMY.

Updates

April 7, 2024, link here:

The daily march of migrants across the Southern border has been a political curse for President Joe Biden. But for the economy, it may have turned out to be a blessing.

By adding millions of new workers to the labor market, the immigration surge has lifted payrolls and growth, and potentially helped keep a lid on consumer prices, according to recent research. Capitol Hill’s budgeteers also think it stands to reduce the deficit in the coming years.

In an analysis published earlier this week, Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden White House economist, found that the post-pandemic pickup in immigration accounted for at least one-fifth of the increase in U.S. gross domestic product since the end of 2019. Though it wasn’t the only factor, the boost from migrants helped explain why the American economy has bounced back much more strongly than those of other developed countries, he argued.

This is so incredible. I first talked about this in a post on July 23, 2022, almost two years ago.  

In the [2024 - 2009 = ] fifteen years since I've been blogging, I've done four deep-dives of which I'm most proud:

  • Netflix: "the next big thing"
  • Devon: best operator in the Permian
  • Nvidia: I pivoted from energy to semiconductor chips
  • the Southern Surge: the $7 trillion gift

Original Post

That southern surge. The $7 trillion gift. Link here.


The linked Barron's story.

The U.S. fertility rate peaked in 2007 at 2.12 children per woman.
It is expected to level out this year at 1.70 births per woman, and remain there through 2054.
Demographics and aging trends could create significant headwinds for economic growth, as aging populations historically have experienced declines in work, productivity, and spending. But the news isn’t all bad, says Matthias Doepke, an economics professor ... with a title so long it won't fit on two lines.....
The future isn’t written in stone, he notes, while the experience of other countries in similar straits should offer the U.S. a road map to maximizing opportunities and avoiding pitfalls.
Doepke has spent much of his career studying how political and cultural changes affect economic development, with a focus on how macroeconomic conditions influence fertility choices. He recently spoke with Barron’s about the impact of demographic changes on the labor market, and the so-called demographic dividend.

**************************
Reposting From Last Month

It started here.

Locator: 46813IMMIGRATION.

From a while ago, link here. Note how far Biden moved the unemployment rate to a better number over the last three years (his first year numbers were "Trump's numbers").

The $7-trillion gift.


Link here.



Those states that best manage the new immigrants will do best.

The Break-Even For Existing Oil Wells In The Permian — $37 — Source — April 4, 2024

Locator: 46916WTI.

Locator: 46567ARCHIVES.

Wow, the content just doesn't quit. 

Every night my wife and I watch an old series from 6:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. or thereabouts. Some years ago it was Perry Mason, then Columbo, then Monk (our all-time favorite -- we went through the series twice), then a lot of Psych. But we're up against a wall. She still has many favorite shows but none that we both like. But tonight, of all things, I ran into a "new" series. I just watched the first episode. I think my wife will love it. We'll watch tomorrow night. White Collar.

The point? There is no point. Except that the content available these days is incredible.

**********************
CRISPR

Link here.

Transfuion-dependent beta thalassemia.

The U.S. health regulator has approved Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR Therapeutics’ gene therapy to treat a rare blood disorder requiring regular blood transfusions, in patients 12 years and older, Vertex said on Tuesday.

The decision earns the therapy, branded as Casgevy, the second U.S. approval after it was greenlighted in December for sickle cell disease, another inherited blood disorder.

The approval by the Food and Drug Administration comes more than two months ahead of its expected action date of March 30.

Casgevy, which requires administration through authorized treatment centers with experience in stem cell transplantation, would be made available early this year at a list price of $2.2 million in the United States for both the approved indications, Vertex said in an email response.
*************************

Ralph Waldo Emerson -- Reflections -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46879READING.

I've just started reading The Annotated Emerson

Again, the 19th century.

Like Billy Wilder and Alfred Hitchcock who spanned almost exactly one century, the 20th century, and, Goethe, half of one, half of the next, 18th to 19th, RWE spanned almost exactly the 19th century, born born, 1803; died, 1882.

If the US infancy was the 18th century, its adolescence was the 19th century. Adulthood, the 20th century.

RWE was able to look back on the infancy of the US with just enough time between the birth of the nation and his own coming of age. Living almost his entire life in Concord, MA, he probably reflected on the Revolutionary War and what it meant his entire life. 

In retirement, May and I were so fortunate to have lived in the Boston area for four years. The longer I'm away from Boston, the more I yearn for it.

During the week we were with the two older granddaughters 24/7, but most weekends we had free. There were a couple of exceptions: swimming tournaments in Salem-Peabody area, and soccer in the Belmont area.

But our weekend destinations:
Concord-Lexington (think Revolutionary War, Henry David Thoreau)
Rockport-Gloucester (think lobster, Motif No 1)


Cape Cod -- the far tip, Provincetown and Chatham at the elbow

In those days, we did a lot of driving, a lot of walking, a lot of shopping, a lot of art museums, a lot of everything. Today, if I were to return, for a week's vacation, on a daily basis:

  • I would drive to the day's destination, let's say, Concord
  • park and then walk for one hour, perhaps the cemetery, perhaps the local wine shop; and,
  • then, find a place in a local coffee shop to read, journal, and blog until noon;
  • a long, leisurely lunch -- mostly just a croissant and an Old Fashioned
  • then, back to that local coffee shop
  • a light dinner -- probably lobster bisque;
  • a walk around town, an hour on a park bench, reading
  • and then, more blogging

***************************
The Annotated Emerson

a

Anti-Vaxxing -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46915ARCHIVES.

Tech, from Reuters today:

 ************************
Richard Dawkins

Too little, too late. In fact, I think he's greatly confused. Why not Jewish?

**************************
Anti-Vaxxing Update

No one knows the truth any more, but my worldview / myth / meme is that RFK, Jr is an anti-vaxxer. 

I think RFK, Jr, is a poster-candidate for anti-vaxxing along with Tucker Carlson, et al.

Link here for the AP take

Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. rose to prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic because of his strident opposition to vaccines. Yet, he insists he’s not anti-vaccine. He has associated with influential people on the far right – including Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Michael Flynn – to raise his profile. Yet, he portrays himself as a true Democrat inheriting the mantle of the Kennedy family.

As he challenges President Joe Biden, the stories he tells on the campaign trail about himself, his life’s work and what he stands for are often the opposite of what his record actually shows.

Though Kennedy’s primary challenge to a sitting president is widely considered a longshot, he’s been sucking up media attention due to his famous name and the possibility that his run could weaken Biden ahead of what is expected to be a close general election in 2024. He’s drawn praise from Republican presidential candidates like Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Meanwhile, Trump supporters, including his longtime ally Roger Stone, have ginned up interest by floating a Trump-Kennedy unity ticket.

So, now we have Fox News blaming the current measles epidemic in Florida (and soon, US) on migrants.

No.

Too Important To Be Buried -- Re-Posting -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46914JOBS.

Jobs, Carl Q, link here:

Jobs, Liz Sonders, link here:

EVs: A Tidal Change In The Offing? April 4, 2024

Locator: 46913EVS.

Just an hour or so ago, I suggested that the "Tesla-delivery" story may have been a watershed moment in the history of EVs -- see the re-post below. Now this, perhaps the most successful auto manufacturer in the US, link here or direct to CNBC:

 

Tides of change: LinkedIn -- Ramachandran S.

*********************************
Re-posting

Locator: 46910B.

Tesla: perhaps the biggest story this year. Is the EV house of cards about to fall? The Tesla story is bigger than just Tesla. Its #1 competitor won't hit its stride for at least two years and will sell its cars at a loss when it does. US EV makers tend not to operate that way. 

From CNBC:

From Barron's:

Hertz: post-mortem, Carl Q. Link here. Or direct to Bloomberg.

Looking For Another Great Day In North Texas -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46912B.

For my extended family member: if looking to sell 10% of your AAPL for BRK-B, this might be a good day. This note is for a single individual. Not a recommendation.  

Personal investing: add to my position in VZ today, again. No recommendation; see disclaimers. When I first started investing, advice from one of the best investors ever, my dad: look for companies at "6, 6, 6."  The best I can do these days is "$40, 15, 6%."

Home ownership: baton passed to millennials. I thought the meme was millennials were interested in travel, destinations, services, not home ownership . Link here.

Jobs, Liz Sonders, link here:

Trans Mountain: link here.

Amazon packaging: link here.

**********************************
Eating At Home

I can't even imagine what this would have cost in high-end restaurant. 

Caprese salad, baby octopus, salmon, fresh baby spinach, green beans, rice.

I now prefer Ponzu for salmon, rather than traditional soy sauce. And -- wow -- recently discovered nori komi furikake on rice -- easily available, either at Walmart or online at Amazon.

US Economy -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46911B.

Jobs, Carl Q, link here:

Jobs, Liz Sonders, link here:

Reality: time to get a grip. Link here. Are you better off than you were four years ago -- you know, the lockdown, Covid-19, the mandated vaccines, etc., and now this:


Automobile repossessions: on the other hand, bad news with regard to cars. Link here. But there are stories everywhere.

Millennials are increasingly seeing their cars face repossession, with calls to attorneys regarding the topic reaching levels not seen since the pandemic. Amid economic pressures from sticky inflation, increasing layoff announcements, and escalating living costs, the Millennial demographic is particularly vulnerable
Financial distress signals are loud and clear as individuals struggle to navigate the challenges posed by an economy that's squeezing their wallets and threatening their mobility.

Thursday -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46910B.

Tesla: perhaps the biggest story this year. Is the EV house of cards about to fall? The Tesla story is bigger than just Tesla. Its #1 competitor won't hit its stride for at least two years and will sell its cars at a loss when it does. US EV makers tend not to operate that way. 

From CNBC:

From Barron's:

Hertz: post-mortem, Carl Q. Link here. Or direct to Bloomberg.

Futures: bull market moves again today? Pre-market:

********************************
Back to the Bakken

 WTI: $85.40.

Friday, April 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter, 205 for the year
37571, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 6-7H,

Thursday, April 4, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 203 for the year
36083, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-10,

RBN Energy: Uinta Basin waxy crude on a roll as gas takeaway constraints are dealt with.

The Uinta Basin in northeastern Utah, which may be the quirkiest production area in the Lower 48, is firing on all cylinders. Production of the basin’s unique waxy crude is at an all-time high, the natural gas takeaway constraints that had threatened to limit growth are being resolved, and demand for waxy crude is on the rise. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll provide an update on the Uinta, where the crude looks and feels like shoe polish and is trucked and railed — not piped — to market.