Saturday, May 4, 2019

A CLR Morris Well (#18858) In Oakdale Field, Drilled Back In 2011; Back In Production -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

The well:
  • 18858, 715, CLR, Morris 3-26H, Oakdale, t5/11; cum 482K 3/19; FracFocus: no data suggesting a re-frack; but two new wells on the pad were recently fracked (December, 2018 - January, 2019); wells on same pad
    • 35272, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 4-24HSL, Oakdale, t--; cum 5,037 bbls -- less than 30 days;
    • 35273, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 5-35H2, Oakdale, t--; cum 2,324 bbls -- less than 30 days;
  • 18860, 517, Morris 2-26H, t5/11; cum 300K 8/18; remains off-line since 8/18; on same pad;
  • 17334, 811, Morris 1-23H, t11/08; cum 278K 8/18; remains off-line since 8/18; on a pad to the north, but runs south and parallels these other wells;
  • there are another nine (9) Morris / Carson Peak wells sited in this same section that are either conf or loc
  • the Carson Peak/Morris wells are tracked here but so many more wells have been added, this needs to be updated -- 
  • mineral owners/stakeholders in the Morris/Carson Peak wells have a lot to watch for
Recent production (#18858):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20191939103750499434442983235
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20182116231922292245021710
BAKKEN7-20183122032200435304926780
BAKKEN6-2018301970182137531192566170
BAKKEN5-20183123532349405308530850

An Old Kaiser-Francis Kinnoin Well Now Back In Production; Shout-Out To Kraken Developement -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

The well:
  • 18200, 1,658, Kraken Development III/Kaiser-Francis/Fidelity, Kinnoin 24-13H, Sanish field, t9/10; cum 680K 3/19; there was some local activity, but nothing to explain slight jump in production;
Previous post:
  • 18200, 1,658, Kaiser-Francis/Fidelity, Kinnoin 24-13H, Sanish field, t9/10; cum 680K 3/19; off line as of 8/18; back on line as of 10/18;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201922206721196028982103644
BAKKEN2-201926237724103402690229166
BAKKEN1-20193139283837545527224012623
BAKKEN12-20183140433824666603526183201
BAKKEN11-201826337734001534475404571
BAKKEN10-201828304828812222527705165
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20181398791312919682071709
BAKKEN7-20183134893598135692357581041
BAKKEN6-20183033123733456780664119
BAKKEN5-2018313762336948596530662775
BAKKEN4-20183034583751475791558388
BAKKEN3-20183133343018405289515510
BAKKEN2-20182830093213354432428832
BAKKEN1-20183133883712254864472515

Random Update Of Several Monster Lodgepole Wells In North Dakota -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

With possibility of two new Lodgepole wells in the Dickinson area, I thought it would be interesting to post "monster" Lodgepole wells. These wells are tracked at the "monster well" post but re-posting here.

For newbies: unlike wells targeting other formations in North Dakota, "monster" Lodgepole wells production is generally reported in "millions of bbls," not hundreds of thousands of bbls. Some are still designated with an "F" -- flowing and not on a pump.

Lodgepole
  • 13447, 419, ConocoPhilips, Dickinson-Lodgepole Unit 74, Dickinson, t2/93; F; cum 3.205925 million 3/19;
  • 13724, 1,752, Denbury, Ridl 11-1, Lodgepole, Eland; t3/95, cum 1.076090 million 3/19;
  • 13745, 2,571, Denbury, Klein 1-23, Lodgepole, Eland; t3/95, cum 4.521981 million 3/19;
  • 13755, 2,016, Denbury, Ranchos 1, Lodgepole, Eland; s3/95, t5/95, cum 4.858934 million 3/19;
  • 13773, 2,908, Denbury Onshore, Privratsky 12-2, a Lodgepole well, Eland, t5/95; cum 794K 3/19;
  • 13788, 398, Debury Onshore, Patterson Lake 41-13, Eland, t4/96; cum 1.3011963 million 3/19;
  • 13790, 1,229, Scout Enegy Management/COP, Kadrmas 36 1, Lodgepole, West Dickinson, t7/96; F; cum 3.791259 million 3/19;
  • 13819, 279, Scout Energy Management/Denbury, Privratsky 12A-3, Lodgepole, Eland;  t10/95, cum 2.29474 million 5/18; last produced 6/03;
  • 13886, 1,214, Scout Energy/Denbury, Roller 1-24, Lodgepole, Eland, s11/95, t12/95, cum 2.370670 million 3/19;
  • 14209, 5,106, Scout Energy/Denbury, Dinsdale 1-3, Lodgepole, Stadium, s12/96, t2/97, cum 3.957610 million 3/19;
  • 14212, 4,331, Scout Energy/Denbury, Heart River 1-4, Lodgepole, Stadium, t11/96, cum 2.214429 million 3/19;
  • 14213, 3,357, Scout Energy/Denbury, Dinsdale 2-4, Lodgepole, Stadium, t12/96, cum 4.958534 million 3/19;
  • 14307, 876, Scout Energy/Denbury, HR 1-9, Lodgepole, Stadium, t3/97; cum 1.480445 million 3/19; came off line 3/19; nothing going on in the area according to the NDIC map; no recent sundry form;
  • 18190, 463, Armstrong Operating, Laurine Engel 1, Patterson Lake, t9/09; F; cum 867K 3/19;
  • 18496, 474, Armstrong Operating, Gruman 18-3, Patterson Lake, t3/10; F; cum 922K 3/19; still producing upwards of 7,000 bbls of oil per month;

That Word Again: Existential -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

Updates

May 6, 2019: US deploying Lincoln carrier group to Mideast in response to "troubling" Iran actions. No link. Story everywhere.


May 6, 2019: Iran warns OPEC collapse is likely.  

Original Post 

Lots of dots to connect. I assume everything I'm "linking" as background has been posted earlier somewhere on the blog.

First this one from CNBC, April 10, 2019: OPEC's oil production plunges to a four-year low in March as Saudis slash output. It is being reported that Saudi took another 324,000 bopd off the market, bringing Saudi's output to just under 9.8 million bopd. That's total production; they have a huge domestic crude oil requirement.

Second, this graph. This is one of my favorite graphs; I have posted it many times.

Look at that graph closely; pay attention to oil production. It appears Saudi crude oil production in 2013 was about 12 million boepd; and, about the same, 12 million boepd in 2014. Maybe only 11 million boepd but clearly well above 10 million boepd but about the very same that it was in 2008. (Saudi Arabia produces very little natural gas; Saudi "boe" comes close to Saudi "bo." See graph above.)

Now, five years later, 2019, and production has dropped below 10 million bopd and Brent oil, off which Saudi prices it's oil, is barely $71.

Third, back on November 15, 2015, in an update to a post dated November 11, 2015 -- three and a half years ago -- I suggested that one could argue that Saudi Arabia has an existential problem:
November 17, 2015: I think this article is a bit of hyperbole, written to attract "clicks" or "eyeballs." But one can argue the slump in the price of oil is an existential problem for Saudi Arabia. Investopedia is reporting that Saudi Arabia could run out of cash in as little as five years if excessive spending is not curbed.
Hold that thought.

Tonight, a contributor over at oilprice.com has this headline: OPEC is facing an existential crisis.

Iran is certainly facing an existential crisis.

Obviously, we don't mean that "Iran is going to go away." We mean that the present government is at risk of facing the same situation that Venezuela's Maduro is facing, but for very different reasons.

Here is the lede of the op-ed:
There is a new threat looming though as OPEC+ prepares to meet at its June 25-26th (2019) Ministerial Meeting in Vienna. The internal cohesion of OPEC is being called into question at present, as several major member countries are facing not only external sanctions but threats of a total internal implosion of their respective regimes.
The removal of U.S. waivers for leading oil importers of Iranian oil and gas is putting the Tehran regime under severe pressure. While Trump’s target of reducing Iranian production to zero is unrealistic, the impact of the sanctions is undeniable.
No new oil contracts have been reported between Iran and its main clients, China and India, since the sanctions. It seems that the fear of indirect sanctions by the U.S. is already having its desired result, Iran’s hydrocarbon exports have been hit hard and seem to have no response. Reports about Iran having trouble to pay not only its own bills, but also its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, also show that the regime is struggling.
For the record, I have said many times over many years that OPEC is no longer relevant. Saudi Arabia is OPEC and vice versa, or maybe OPEC is now Russia and Saudi Arabia, but certainly, OPEC as a relevant entity disappeared years ago.

But OPEC is not going to go away. Some members will come and go. Indonesia has left OPEC on more than one occasion. It last left two years ago; I don't know if it has renewed its membership, but obviously it is welcome to attend OPEC meetings.

Iran will try to outlast Trump -- two years is all they need. Once President Biden takes the oath of office, the US policy towards Iran will return to what it was under Obama-Hillary-Valerie.

But, enough about Iran.

I think the Saudi Arabia story is more interesting. It certainly appears that Saudi's situation has improved since the Investopedia article of 2015 and my comments regarding Saudi's existential issue at that time. But a few facts with regard to Saudi Arabia:
  • Saudi's crude oil production is not increasing
  • the price of oil remains way too low for Saudi's needs
  • Saudi's own requirement for crude oil is increasing, thus leaving less oil to sell
  • for Saudi to execute Prince Salman's plan, a huge amount of capital will be needed
It will be an interesting movie to watch.

The first trailer will likely be OPEC's June 25-26th (2019) Ministerial Meeting in Vienna.

Kentucky Derby In Minutes -- NBC

Egregious.

I learned another definition in the world of sports.

Just before the start of the race, the chief steward declared the field, "sloppy."

In horse racing, "sloppy" means the stewards will decide the winner of the race, not the jockeys.

Random Update Of A Parshall EOG Austin Well, #24076 -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. There will be factual and typographical errors.

For newbies: 
  • production from this well now tied into local/regional infrastructure
  • was off-line for awhile due to neighboring fracking; EOG executing a downspacing and infill drilling program
  • fracked in 2013: 50 stages; 10.2 million lbs
  • spud date, June 11, 2013; cease drilling, June 24, 2013
  • spacing unit: 1920 acres
  • almost 750,000 bbls total through 3/19 -- less than six years old
  • although in a Tier 1 area, it is clearly quite well east of the main body of the Bakken 
  • this well will continue to produce for 35 years
The well:
  • 24076, 1,049, EOG, Austin 31-2919H, Parshall, t9/14; cum 727K 3/19
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2019305272527634407790706336
BAKKEN2-201928484047803554694549531341
BAKKEN1-201931478847723269552735611244
BAKKEN12-20183146514598332939662435824
BAKKEN11-2018282521243157841809844291
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-201810480000
BAKKEN7-201800490000
BAKKEN6-20183031123191742129320575241
BAKKEN5-20182716871689611809317287398
BAKKEN4-2018302762272649228962237243
BAKKEN3-2018312900295282328622386401
BAKKEN2-2018283023294802104620310282
BAKKEN1-201831344834391092377122782492
BAKKEN12-201731360737535524076224621110
BAKKEN11-20173037103713582365422561607
BAKKEN10-201731411141214525041245340
BAKKEN9-201730424942454824939244490
BAKKEN8-2017314597460353260272546065
BAKKEN7-20173146754617482644125144789

EOG Well: 5X Jump In Production; Slawson, EOG Wells Back In Production After Neighboring Fracks Completed -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I sometimes see things that are not there. There may be typographical and factual errors.

For newbies:
  • note total production to date for the Slawson well, over a half million bbls
  • note total production to date for the newer EOG wells
  • these wells will all produce for 35 years; they will be fracked multiple times over the years
  • note the "chronology" number for the two EOG Austin wells, #34, and #131; we talked about this before
  • both EOG wells are middle Bakken wells 
  • the older Whitmore well jumped from 500 bbls/month to 1800 bbls/month; the jump may not last long, but ... it also extends the life of the well ...
The wells:
  • 17303, 1,676, Slawson, Whitmore 1-6H, Parshall, t8/08; cum 529K 3/19;
  • 25839, 942, EOG Austin 131-0631H, Parshall, t12/13; cum 316K 3/19; 
  • 25840, 916, EOG Austin 34-0631H, Parshall, t12/13; cum 291K 3/19;  
Previous post:
December 19, 2018: #25840, #25839; and, #17303 all off-line due to neighboring fracks. As of 11/18 some are starting to come back on line. Check back in April, 2019; looks like some of them will show at least a small jump in production (posted March 11, 2019); and, yes, #17303 is a Slawson Whitmore well next to two EOG wells in same section; not sure how that happened;
Production --
17303:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201931183516072344798321129
BAKKEN2-201928409225178719007
BAKKEN1-201917355248174227212320
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-2018112460500
BAKKEN9-201829552476176306967
BAKKEN8-201831478458369260495
BAKKEN7-201831469468520244335
BAKKEN6-201830384233122274821
BAKKEN5-201831452628120235302

25839:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201931260226491445332128210
BAKKEN2-201928241524001494201915661
BAKKEN1-20193121382102187926782057121
BAKKEN12-20183114041338235023431727123
BAKKEN11-20183442003800
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-201814150980
BAKKEN8-20181831500100
BAKKEN7-2018132372233684532525
BAKKEN6-20183056059270911796923
BAKKEN5-201831603580702131875770
BAKKEN4-20183063864771813398541
BAKKEN3-20183166765375013858863

25840:  
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20193120032017292710145140
BAKKEN2-201928227022753185195915061
BAKKEN1-201931224422184098155799859
BAKKEN12-2018312787277634741663109378
BAKKEN11-2018241233121128406953310
BAKKEN10-2018424119815354143548
BAKKEN9-20182313901397116552554736156
BAKKEN8-2018181427153171833182736298
BAKKEN7-20183127182720132459295328101
BAKKEN6-2018302718271912425659515223
BAKKEN5-20182212291198105138433243301
BAKKEN4-201830205220411083500945374

Slawson Whitmore Wells Completed; Huge Well Keeps On Truckin'; Small Bump In Older Neighboring Well -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

The wells:
  • 17354, 2,205, Slawson, Whitmore 1-7H, Parshall, t10/08; cum 663K 3/19
  • 32921, 300, Slawson, Whitmore 4-7-6H, Parshall, t11/18; cum 18K 24 days;
  • 34922, 504, Slawson, Whitmore 3-7-6H, Parshall, t12/18; cum 14K 26 days;
Previous post:

September 24, 2018: #17354, a great well; Slawson, Whitmore 1-7H, Parshall, off-line as of 8/18; back on line as of 12/18; slight jump in production;  #34921; #34922; the latter still IA 2/19; both of the latter two wells now completed; #17354 back in production; slight bump in production.

Production profiles:
17354, recent:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201931280923071725107058535
BAKKEN2-20192816351886153057217884
BAKKEN1-20193014711661162978245423
BAKKEN12-201813647010549968602
BAKKEN11-201810001491490
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20182854870256836614422
BAKKEN6-2018288749442977074617
BAKKEN5-201831109914978558027631
BAKKEN4-20182810159748011529014
BAKKEN3-2018301108930721520124210
BAKKEN2-201828104792570198517155
BAKKEN1-2018311176135972197316960
BAKKEN12-2017301201113047249822201
BAKKEN11-20172512921435114150712328
BAKKEN10-20173117231507134178814490
 
34921:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2019241540314943118711531264697079
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-2018299471008460733
BAKKEN11-2018614871380484912510106

34922:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-201926132831260696791219648075838
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-2018252423024594130348

Wow, This Is Awesome -- An "AB" CLR Monroe Well Looks LIke It Might Be Back In Production -- May The Fourth Be With You -- 2019

The well:
  • 22891, 947, CLR, Monroe 1-2H, Banks, t8/12; cum 308K 3/19; 
Most recent sundry form:
  • 2017: pump
A previous post:
  • March 13, 2018: #22891, AB, neighboring wells fracked;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20196111288199017071393206
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-2017002230000
BAKKEN7-2017567445113070134001270
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-2017158080100
BAKKEN2-2017241836211169632232538358
BAKKEN1-20173126592583968450740350
BAKKEN12-20163128093005104258944993420
BAKKEN11-2016302783286010024474399415
BAKKEN10-201631304029321167499745160
BAKKEN9-2016242006193470730992559250
BAKKEN8-201631260130021072442139690