The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 5-2022 | 27 | 881 | 884 | 28055 | 226 | 0 | 226 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 4-2022 | 29 | 827 | 828 | 27163 | 204 | 0 | 204 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 3-2022 | 31 | 944 | 949 | 30191 | 227 | 0 | 227 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 2-2022 | 28 | 1268 | 1273 | 27523 | 322 | 0 | 322 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 1-2022 | 31 | 1625 | 1638 | 31111 | 453 | 0 | 453 |
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 5-2022 | 31 | 1044 | 1046 | 24326 | 278 | 0 | 278 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 4-2022 | 30 | 855 | 857 | 22146 | 206 | 0 | 206 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 3-2022 | 31 | 919 | 910 | 26482 | 240 | 0 | 240 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 2-2022 | 27 | 695 | 700 | 20862 | 185 | 0 | 185 |
| SOUTH RED RIVER B | 1-2022 | 31 | 1111 | 1107 | 23545 | 289 | 0 | 289 |
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEVONIAN | 5-2022 | 21 | 299 | 322 | 2149 | 238 | 0 | 143 |
| DEVONIAN | 4-2022 | 20 | 154 | 174 | 2710 | 216 | 0 | 126 |
| DEVONIAN | 3-2022 | 21 | 330 | 410 | 1179 | 217 | 49 | 73 |
| DEVONIAN | 2-2022 | 25 | 430 | 399 | 1912 | 251 | 138 | 0 |
| DEVONIAN | 1-2022 | 26 | 550 | 438 | 2180 | 292 | 91 | 84 |
| DEVONIAN | 12-2021 | 31 | 720 | 620 | 2299 | 373 | 141 | 92 |
I've added a new theme for 2022 and a new investor link: EV cash burn and how EV manufacturers will manage that cash burn.
This was a problem early on for Tesla. I thought it had been resolved. There are indications "cash burn" is going to be a non-transitory problem for all EV manufacturers.
Interesting WSJ op-ed today with hints of same. More on that later.
But most interesting is a throw-away line in that op-ed that led me to this. I missed it -- a week ago. I wonder how many others missed it? In the "old days" (two years ago) this would not have been missed by insideEVs which reported monthly EV sales. But EV automobile manufacturers quit providing providing monthly updates and thus a lot of stories are going to be missed.
Curious how many missed this story from one week ago?
Before we go on: pause. Think about Henry Ford's business plan when he introduced the Model T in 1908. Imagine if he had taken a different route (no pun intended).
Nissan Leaf to be phased out.
It appears the only Nissan EV now is the Nissan ARIYA, the "all-new electric crossover SUV." Starts at $46,000. Another source: prices will range from $47,125 to $60,125, before taxes and delivery charges.
The number is important because the administration -- Pete Buttigieg in this case -- has set a $55,000-price for an EV "manageable" for all Americans who cannot afford $4-gasoline.
Fortunately the Nissan base model Ariya will meet the Buttigieg price point.
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Dinner: Martini, Shrimp, and Herring
With Louisiana cocktail sauce.
New 2022 theme added July 23, 2022.
Updates
March 2, 2023: EV cash burn, particularly Rivian, Arrival.
Original Post
Re-posting:
Ford: Bloomberg --
Tesla: more comments over at twitter about Tesla selling bitcoin
Bottom line:
In other words: for 98% of the population, the M1 MacBook Air is the better buy.
Locator: 43000C.
Updates
April 10, 2023: link here.
July 26, 2022: link here.
Original Post
First, by the end of the century, 2100. Graphic below.
By next year, India will surpass China in population, by the end of 2023. This simply amazes me. Graphic below.
Projections are that Nigeria, a relatively small country by geography, will have a population second to China, by the end of the century, and right now, unable to benefit from high oil prices.
This story is absolutely criminal and it appears the UN is uninterested. Not surprising.
From the linked olprice article by Julianne Geiger:
The severe revenue shortfall does not allow Nigeria to service its debt.
The cost of Nigeria’s gasoline subsidy will be about 10 times what it had originally budgeted, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari revealed in an April letter to lawmakers.
That cost of that subsidy is expected to be just south of $10 billion.
Unlike other major oil producers that have benefited handsomely from higher crude oil prices, Nigeria has negligible refining capacity, forcing it to import nearly all of the gasoline it consumes.
And Nigeria must pay today’s high costs for that gasoline while continuing to sell it onto the consumer for much less in order to keep prices at 39 cents.
The value of Nigeria’s petroleum imports far outweighs the value of its petroleum exports—to the tune of $43 billion. Nigeria has toyed with the idea of ending the gasoline subsidies, but the specter of fuel protests caused the President to scrap those plans.
Sri Lanka.
Panama.
Ecuador.
Boris Johnson out.
Italian government falls (but that's probably not news).
Back to the first article, looking at projected population in 2100.
Full table, which might be a big hard to read. Go to the linked article or click on this image and zoom in:
Top seven countries in population in 2100:
I do not know Peter Zeihan's opinion on the southern surge (tag here for background) but I do know what he says in his 2022 book.
With regard to the southern surge:
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Other Observations
We could have fun with this all day, but here are the things that jump out at me:
Recommendation: read Peter Zeihan, c. 2022.
Update
Later, 12:48 p.m. CT: this update -- to understand the point I'm trying to make, one must read all the milliondollarway posts on ERCOT, ISO-NE, ISO-NY:
Original Post
It's been eye-opening to follow ISO-NE, ISO-NY, and ERCOT.
The business model should be obvious to all by now.
I assume folks are familiar with many (most?) mall stores remarking that they make their money for the entire year during one or two days (weeks?) prior to Christmas. Candy retailers make their money during the week preceding Halloween. Hallmark? In the old days, they made their money prior to Valentine's Day. Perhaps not so much any more.
Likewise, renewable energy companies write their contracts in such a way that they know they will make their annual numbers on one or two weeks of "extreme" temperatures. They can lose money fifty weeks of the year, but when rates go over $1,000 / MWh for a couple of weeks each year they make enough money to have a great year. And, of course, the incentives -- subsidies, grants, tax breaks, good will -- and mandates make renewable energy a no-brainer for developers.
But now, those money-making days for a couple of weeks each year are now being extended to full seasons: two months of winter and two months of summer.
The renewable energy companies knew this day would eventually come and they "encouraged" it by shutting down fossil fuel solutions while building out their own projects. And politicians became willing partners.
New England's worst nightmare: if the Freeport LNG export terminal comes back on line before winter. Whether Freeport comes back on line in a timely manner will be seen as a political issue, whether it is or not, but then, again, everything these days, it seems, is political.
Flashback: On the way to looking up something I ran across this with a google search: link here. Back on July 10, 2012. Wow, a lot has happened in the past ten years.
Flashback: companies relocating from California to Texas. That supports my note from the other day with regard to the grid:
This doesn't even account for all the new companies, including the most energy-intense of all: crypto-mining.
And, of course, just the opposite in the New York and New England area: folks and companies moving out -- mostly to Florida -- and supply still unable to meet demand.
It's not that Texas is not increasing supply, it simply cannot keep up. That growth began in 2019, and then the lockdowns prevented a lot of grid infrastructure to be built in 2020 compounding problems, and, of course, they misspent / mis-directed a lot of their money / efforts by installing non-dispatchable, not-dependable renewable energy to make people feel good instead of installing what really would have made sense.
By the way, candidate-for-governor Beto says Texas needs to solve the grid problem by adding more non-dispatchable, not-dependable renewable energy.Of course that will work: adding any form of energy will help, but it won't be the most cost-effective or efficient, and, or course, it will have no effect on global emissions. China is adding a new coal plant every day (on average) and now Europe is even returning to coal.
Others agree. Link here.
Investing: link here. Sent by a reader, thank you. I've seen the same sentiment from other analysts, including a very nice graph (which I did not post / link) that suggests one should expect it will take at least six years, as many as ten, for the market to recover. That's fine. We'll talk about this later but for me it simply means different "priorities" in investing.
Even if it seems he's seldom right any more, I still agree with Jim Cramer when he says there's always a bull market somewhere.
Recession: there's going to be a lot of talk this next week when the 2Q GDP comes in with a negative number, the second consecutive quarter to have a negative GDP. To a reader I wrote, not-ready-for-prime-time:
I can't wait to see how the Biden camp spins this.
Clearly we will have a negative GDP reading for the second quarter and regardless of all the spin and definitions of what a recession is, the press will clearly call two quarters of negative growth consistent with recession.
Apparently the Biden camp is already tweeting that two quarters of negative growth does not necessarily define a recession, which is accurate.
There have been "books" written on the definition of a recession and some folks argue that employment numbers like the numbers we see now are not consistent with a recession.
It will only be months to years from now when "wiki" will record when / if this recession began and when it ended (assuming "wiki" says this is a recession).
But headline writers don't have time -- or the space -- for such nuance, and most articles on this subject will fall into the TLDR ("too long, didn't read") category.
Headline writers will call it a recession and that's what it will be.
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The Book Page
This past week I started reading:
On Playing the Flute: The Classic of Baroque Music Instruction, Johann Joachim Quantz, translated from the German, first published in English, 1966, if I read it correctly, and first published in 1752, Berlin.
Word for the day: quaver.
Two years ago our local school district closed down for a short period of time, and then finished the year with a hybrid system, some linked into their classes by streaming on their iPads, others attending school in person.
Wow, that was a tough year. Sophia stayed home for the entire year. Her mother and sisters mentored her in the morning and I took over in the afternoon. It was an incredibly tough year, but I found it so incredibly rewarding.
Wow, Sophia clearly gapped up on her knowledge of her iPad and all the streaming apps. It was simply amazing all she learned and all she could do. In the big scheme of things, there are times I wish it was still that way: remote learning.
I connected with her teachers and she had several: home room, math, reading, physical education, music and art. I knew all of them and Sophia and I interacted with all those teachers every day. Imagine: a first grader with different teachers for all those subjects.
My three favorite: reading, music, and art.
For music they used an app called: QuaverMusic.
I never thought of looking up "quaver." I assumed it was a made-up word. And, then out of the blue, ran across "quaver" in the On Playing The Flute, written in 1752, translated and copyrighted in 1966.
From wiki:
Johann Joachim Quantz, German, 1697 – 1773, was a German composer, flutist and flute maker of the late Baroque period. Much of his professional career was spent in the court of Frederick the Great.
Quantz composed hundreds of flute sonatas and concertos, and wrote On Playing the Flute, an influential treatise on flute performance. His works were known and appreciated by Bach, Haydn and Mozart.
In fact, he tutored the Prussian king's son to be play flute.
By the way, 1697 - 1773, encompassed the Seven Years' War (1756 - 1763), also known as the French and Indian War in the colonies, which provided a lot of experience for the "Brits" and the "Scots" when they took on King George III a few years later.
I continue to cull my library, mostly by giving books away. This will be a very, very hard book to give away. If I do, it will go to Sophia's music teacher.
