Saturday, December 27, 2025

Warren Was / Is Not The GOAT -- It Gets Tedious -- Part 2 -- December 27, 2025

Locator: 49770INVESTING.

SCHG vs BRK.B.

Most recent:

Six months:

One year:

Five years: 

Max: BRK easily beats the Schwab large cap growth ETF (SCHG) -- by a very, very wide margin -- when zooming out to "max" but at that point, the comparison lacks relevance on so many levels. 

What we need is another two years. Like "the Fed," we need more data. 

*************************
Musical Interlude

Link here. 

One needs to hear this simply for the CCR clip.  

Posted by at

My Favorite Chart -- MMF Update -- November, 2025, Data -- Updated December 15, 2025

Locator: 49769MMF.

Tag: MMF MMFS money market funds 

Updates

Later, ---- Schwab has about $700 billion in MMFs under management. BRK has about $400 billion in cash. 

ChatGPT confirms that MMFs under management has set an all-time record and has probably breached $8 trillion. Some sources confirm $8 trillion; others suggest $7.67 trillion in December, 2025. 

In January, 2020, just prior to the Covid-19 lockdown, MMFUM had just crossed the $4 trillion mark before surging to $5.2 trillion in April, 2020. 

It is amazing how fast folks can move money into "cash" (safety) when things look "scary." I am absolutely convinced that this is the break point between the first golden age of investing and the current "tech" age of investing.  

Original Post

My favorite chart: link here. Last month I said the most recent data was the largest jump in about two years. I honestly can't make out the jump in the most recent data, but it again shows a huge jump, similar to the jump the previous month. If it's accurate to make that statement, then again we have a most interesting situation in light of the "record" market in US equities (Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ).  

The chart:

Zooming in as best we can: 

****************************
Travelogue Break 

Link here. 

Many decades ago, when we were stationed in Germany, we took a six-day train trip across Switzerland. 

To put that train trip in perspective one can cross Switzerland, east to west, by train in about six hours. We took six days! We traveled perhaps two hours each day and then stayed one to two days in towns and cities across Switzerland, including St Moritz. There were several lines and we were on all of them: the Rhaetian Railroad; the Bernina Express; the Albula Line; the Bernina Line; and the Ferrovia del Gottardo. In addition to that incredible, magical train trip, we took countless trips by auto to Switzerland and northern Italy.

This was that train trip.

Posted by at

Space X -- December 27, 2025

Locator: 49768INVESTING. 

I had an interesting discussion with ChatGPT earlier today (prompt provided earlier). 

My thesis: retail investing changed between 2020 and 2021. 

Another example.

Link here. 

**************************
Top 20 Stocks Schwab's Tech-Heavy ETF: SCHB

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.    
Posted by at

Lessons Learned -- Re-Posting From Another Blog -- December 27, 2025

Locator: 49767INVESTING. 

Lessons Learned

Updates

September 22, 2025: link here. Given a diagnosis of terminal and aggressive cancer, give a year to live, Jonathan Clements wrote a poignant column on November 3, 2024, on what that diagnosis meant. See below. On this date -- September 22, 2025 -- The WSJ carried his obituary. Mr Clements had died the day before, Sunday, September 21, 2025. His webpage is still active and accessible: link here.

Original Post 

Link here.

From the linked article:

I started writing a personal-finance column, Getting Going, for The Wall Street Journal in 1994, and soon earned a reputation as a relentless proponent of indexing. In 2024, at age 61, it seems I’m becoming renowned all over again—for dying.

Yeah, this is a little weird.

Ever since I learned I had cancer and might have just a year to live, I’ve been working like crazy to make sure I bequeath a well-organized estate and leave my family in good financial shape. I’m determined to have as good a death as possible, not least from a financial point of view.

Here are some steps I’m taking. 

Posted by at

Enerplus Will Be Reporting Some Nice Olson Wells In Little Knife -- December 27, 2025

Locator: 49766WELLS. 

A well of interest:

  • 18755, 1,375, Enerplus, Olson 3-1H, Little Knife, t7/10; cum 367K 10/25, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2025314315408339185748562534
BAKKEN9-20252931363349288935563351126
BAKKEN8-2025249689832302784408307
BAKKEN7-20252263162527141012386563
BAKKEN6-20255631302971153670
BAKKEN5-20253021151938385134172619718
BAKKEN4-20253023432175413238622906871
BAKKEN3-20251265568215421518694790
BAKKEN2-202574175236931012595397
BAKKEN1-202531240624033600561531502380
BAKKEN12-202431320836024182694448422014
BAKKEN11-202430374233203945626243731804
BAKKEN10-202430450645585221773052582415
BAKKEN9-202416009771070
BAKKEN8-20240000000
BAKKEN7-202462522312852752603
BAKKEN6-202411700000
BAKKEN5-20240000000
BAKKEN4-20240000000
BAKKEN3-2024152150505
BAKKEN2-20241420222079744
BAKKEN1-202410002482480
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20232310581211873106710240
BAKKEN10-202331161215801118150314450
BAKKEN9-202330177719161364167116160
BAKKEN8-202376494194341541430
BAKKEN7-20230000000
BAKKEN6-202326154616631355163015880
BAKKEN5-202330164215471463165616080
BAKKEN4-202330177219081505174817000
BAKKEN3-202330210419732029144713990

The new Olson wells:

  • 39061, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-5H, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20253281140189
9-20251762421096
8-20252167424244
7-20252279828047
  • 39060, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-4H, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20251687220629
9-20251314515714
8-20251872120916
7-20252398029501
  • 39059, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-3H, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20252617731983
9-20252290727441
8-20252575328793
7-20252955236278
  • 39058, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-2H-WLL, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20252532430977
9-20251821521800
8-20252291225633
7-20252349428904
  • 40764, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-6H, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20252347328654
9-20252329727884
8-20252908632558
7-20252704633079
6-202519172255

  • 40765, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-7H, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20251325816113
9-20252094325111
8-20252080923269
7-20252329728423
6-202523512765

  • 40784, conf, Enerplus Olson 147-97-34-27-9H-ELL Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20252223127120
9-20252405128856
8-20252165324228
7-20252193226682
6-202529653487
  • 40769, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-8H, Little Knife, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20251942123671
9-20252332227925
8-20252765330922
7-20253116938028
6-202531373689
    Posted by at

    The Devon Energy Costanza Wells -- More Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 27, 2025

    Locator: 49765WELLS. 

    The Devon Energy Costanza wells in Siverston oil field are tracked here. 

    These are incredible wells. Production for earlier well has been posted. 

    The "new" Costanza wells coming off confidential list and reporting this next week, initial production data:

    • 40970, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 7TFH, Siverston, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252286163495
    9-20253093765182
    8-20251846845475
    7-202556205118054
    • 40969, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 6H, Siverston, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-202525594116939
    9-20253115599099
    8-202557801129773
    7-202588937157710
    • 40723, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 5TFH, Siverston, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20251749661479
    9-20252682265877
    8-20251268331888
    7-202570819148328
    6-20251169622286
    Posted by at

    Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 27, 2025

    Locator: 49764WELLS. 

    The wells:

    • 40970, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 7TFH, Siverston, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252286163495
    9-20253093765182
    8-20251846845475
    7-202556205118054
    • 40620, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-8BH, Fertile Valley, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-2025264249061
    • 40619, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-7BH, Fertile Valley, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-2025257469156
    • 41550, conf, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X 11E, Hofflund, npd, 
    • 41549, conf, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11D, Hofflund, npd,
    • 41412, conf, Slawson, Atlas 5-21-16H, Ellsworth, npd,
    • 40969, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 6H, Siverston, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-202525594116939
    9-20253115599099
    8-202557801129773
    7-202588937157710
    • 39061, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-5H, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20253281140189
    9-20251762421096
    8-20252167424244
    7-20252279828047
    • 39060, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-4H, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20251687220629
    9-20251314515714
    8-20251872120916
    7-20252398029501
    • 39059, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-3H, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252617731983
    9-20252290727441
    8-20252575328793
    7-20252955236278
    • 39058, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-2H-WLL, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252532430977
    9-20251821521800
    8-20252291225633
    7-20252349428904
    • 41413, conf, Slawson, Atlas 4-21-16H, Ellsworth, npd, 
    • 40921, conf, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X-11A, Hofflund, npd, 
    • 41551, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11B, Hofflund, npd, 
    • 41414, conf, Slawson, Atlas 3-21-16H, Ellsworth, npd, 
    • 41552, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11G, Hofflund, npd, 
    • 40764, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-6H, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252347328654
    9-20252329727884
    8-20252908632558
    7-20252704633079
    6-202519172255

    • 41553, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11C, Hofflund, npd, 
    • 40958, conf, Devon Energy, Grand National 34-36F 5H, Sixmile, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252893922811
    9-20252876926420
    8-20252750220047
    7-20253762926688
    6-20255424189
    • 40765, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-7H, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20251325816113
    9-20252094325111
    8-20252080923269
    7-20252329728423
    6-202523512765

    • 41554, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11H, Hofflund, npd, 
    • 40784, conf, Enerplus Olson 147-97-34-27-9H-ELL Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20252223127120
    9-20252405128856
    8-20252165324228
    7-20252193226682
    6-202529653487
    • 40769, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-8H, Little Knife, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20251942123671
    9-20252332227925
    8-20252765330922
    7-20253116938028
    6-202531373689
    • 40723, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 5TFH, Siverston, 
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    10-20251749661479
    9-20252682265877
    8-20251268331888
    7-202570819148328
    6-20251169622286
    Posted by at

    Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 27, 2025

    Locator: 49763WELLS. 

    Wednesday, January 7, 2026: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year,
    40970, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 7TFH, 

    Tuesday, January 6, 2026: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 12 for the year,  
    None.

    Monday, January 5, 2026: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 12 for the year, 
    40620, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-8BH,

    Sunday, January 4, 2026: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 11 for the year, 
    None.

    Saturday, January 3, 2026: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 11 for the year, 
    40619, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-7BH, 

    Friday, January 2, 2026: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 10 for the year, 
    41550, conf, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X 11E, 
    41549, conf, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11D, 
    41412, conf, Slawson, Atlas 5-21-16H, 
    40969, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 6H, 
    39061, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-5H,
    39060, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-4H, 
    39059, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-3H, 
    39058, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-2H-WLL, 

    Thursday, January 1, 2026: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year, 
    41413, conf, Slawson, Atlas 4-21-16H, 
    40921, conf, XTO, HBU Baptiste 34X-11A, 

    Wednesday, December 31, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
    None. There was no June 31, 2025.

    Tuesday, December 30, 2025: 72 for the month, 195 for the quarter, 769 for the year,
    41551, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11B, 
    41414, conf, Slawson, Atlas 3-21-16H, 

    Monday, December 29, 2025: 70 for the month, 193 for the quarter, 767 for the year,
    41552, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11G, 
    40764, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-6H, 

    Sunday, December 28, 2025: 68 for the month, 191 for the quarter, 774 for the year,
    41553, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11C, 
    40958, conf, Devon Energy, Grand National 34-36F 5H, 
    40765, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-7H, 

    Saturday, December 27, 2025: 65 for the month, 188 for the quarter, 771 for the year,
    41554, conf, XTO Energy, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11H, 
    40784, conf, Enerplus Olson 147-97-34-27-9H-ELL, 
    40769, conf, Enerplus, Olson 147-97-34-27-8H, 
    40723, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 5TFH,

    Posted by at

    These MRO Wells Are Too Good To Be Lost In The Shuffle -- Re-Posting -- December 27, 2025

    Locator: 49762MRO. 

    Re-posting:

    Locator: 46410LOSTBRIDGE. 

    Updates

    December 27, 2025: original post with maps. Rig on pad. 

    December 27, 2025: wow, the original post was all the way back to December 28, 2023. There is now a rig on the pad of interest, #39668. Are the wells completed? A neighboring well off for two months, is back on line:

    • 21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek 21-13TH, Lost Bridge, t2/13; cum 449K 10/23; cum 489K 10/25; note production profile --
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-20252213261224149636323350190
    BAKKEN9-20250000000
    BAKKEN8-202500900000
    BAKKEN7-20252513881411161346064022476
    BAKKEN6-20252914891631192143814135139

    Be sure to look at this well, this is an absolute monster well:

    • 32434, 4,679, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, Lost Bridge, t9/20; cum 587K 10/23; cum 673K 10/25; early production, and no pump, still flowing according to NDIC data:
    BAKKEN11-20203053105529831664986043817341019
    BAKKEN10-20203064940650212053985430784563024
    BAKKEN9-2020309038989900506361199941131421506
    BAKKEN8-20204635558564005810063581121

    Original Post  

    A reader updated me regarding a couple of MRO wells in this area. I've updated the wells on three pads in this area.

    The wells:

    Two pads:
    • 39671, conf, MRO, Strobeck USA 34-12TFH, Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 39670, conf, MRO, Restad USA 24-12H, Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 39669, conf, MRO, Oukrup USA 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 39668, conf, MRO, Banta USA 21-13H, Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 39667, conf, MRO, Rothgarn USA 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 39666, conf, MRO, Ratcliffe USA 11-13H , Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 38025, no IP, MRO, Osking USA 14-12H, Lost Bridge, t12/21; cum 521K 10/23;  early production data:
    BAKKEN10-20223135158349422535854327485021244
    BAKKEN9-20223033475334732755244970424460
    BAKKEN8-2022313408734362313984515242025619
    BAKKEN7-20222278006380620
    BAKKEN6-2022241541715421782238437371460
    BAKKEN5-20223125017252621207456848516673155
    BAKKEN4-2022232144521298102724119239288302
    BAKKEN3-2022313613736127161468009476417944
    BAKKEN2-20222851170511832183997398904123374
    BAKKEN1-2022295205952096269998054075977877
    BAKKEN12-202122552075470730348747265686614086
    • 21839, conf, MRO, Kottke USA 11-13H , Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 21837, 1,398, MRO, Deep Creek USA 14-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t3/13; cum 422K 10/23;
    • 21838, conf, MRO, Levi USA 11-13TFH, Lost Bridge, no data;
    • 32434, 4,679, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, Lost Bridge, t9/20; cum 587K 10/23; early production:
    BAKKEN5-20212198199727487521726193801253
    BAKKEN4-2021301929019343774347816460190
    BAKKEN3-2021312460425028990654302508331313
    BAKKEN2-2021282613125827105034914746781223
    BAKKEN1-2021202142921791893337709308654989
    BAKKEN12-20203138346383951448463828517989538
    BAKKEN11-20203053105529831664986043817341019
    BAKKEN10-20203064940650212053985430784563024
    BAKKEN9-2020309038989900506361199941131421506
    BAKKEN8-20204635558564005810063581121
    • 21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek 21-13TH, Lost Bridge, t2/13; cum 449K 10/23; 

    Third pad:

    • 29004, 2,197, MRO, Gulbrand USA 44-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 346K 10/23;
    • 29003, 2,544, MRO, Victor USA 34-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 250K 10/23;
    • 28263, 3,031, MRO, Morean USA 34-12H, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 528K 10/23;
    • 19667, 902, MRO, Buffalo 34-12H, Lost Bridge, t9/11; cum 287K 10/23; sporadic production in 2023;
    • 19666, 1,028, MRO, Elk Creek USA 33-12H, Lost Bridge, t8/11; cum 295K 10/23; no halo effect;
    • 28262, 2,622, MRO, Piper 34-12H, Lost Bridge, t5/15; cum 461K 10/23;

    Maps:






     

    Posted by at
    Labels:
    Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)