Saturday, July 31, 2021

Rambling On A Late Saturday Night While Sitting On The Dock Of The Bay

Of the many non-Bakken issues I touch on, there are two issues that I find a) most perplexing, and b) seem most generational (older folks like me think one thing; younger folks think otherwise).

The two non-Bakken issues I'm talking about:

  • EVs (electric vehicles); and,
  • Covid-19.

I'm actually fascinated by both issues and my feeling, opinions, thoughts can change, flip overnight.

It's become such a big issue for me -- these two issues -- that sometimes I think I need to dedicate two "new" blogs to these issues and not discuss them periodically on the Bakken blog, but I simply don't have enough time to do that.

Where I stand tonight on these two issues:

EVs:

  • the best I can say: automobile manufacturers are going to have a devil of a time threading this needle; making money while investing huge amounts of capital over the next several years;
  • what I really think: the numbers simply don't add up on so many levels; in other words, I won't see any significant EV penetration over the next ten years to make it more than a hobby horse among manufacturers and consumers.

Tonight, nothing anyone says can get me to change my mind on this one.

Covid-19:

  • the best I can say: I have to simply avoid the issue; it's no longer science;
  • what I really think: everybody will eventually test positive for Covid-19, vaccinated or unvaccinated.

There are two links regarding Covid-19 that prompted me to post this.

The first link sent to me by a reader.

The second link from twitter.

LEGO: Just Announced -- Goes On Sale Tomorrow -- July 31, 2021

Link here

Notes From All Over -- The "Nobody Cares Any More Edition" -- Just Keep On Truckin' -- July 31, 2021

Updates

August 10, 2021: the 202One Tokyo Olympics are over; no one noticed. Except Breitbart. Archived.

Original Post

Biles bails: Simone Biles withdraws from two more events. Does that make it three events, now? Only two more events to go. Indicates she may not compete again. The WSJ -- makes for entertaining weekend reading. Link here. All I know is S. Lee is happy, happy, happy. You don't think she felt more pressure than Biles? Later, July 31, 2021, late Saturday night in a tweet, Biles says she will not participate in the individual floor exercise.

The real superspreader events this summer: hundreds of thousands of Texans streaming north to evacuate record-setting hurricanes.

Fact check: actually that's not accurate. The real superspreader event this summer will be CDC's ineffective mask mandate:

Inflation:

Inflation is increasingly a lot like the weather: everyone talks about it, but no one does anything about it.

The Commerce Department released its version of an inflation report on Friday. Called the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, this is the measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve ever since the Fed ditched the Department of Labor's Consumer Price Index sometime around the turn of the century. The official reason for the divorce was that the expenditure weights in the PCE can change as people substitute away from some goods and services toward others—making it a more timely read on prices paid by households—and that the PCE includes more comprehensive coverage of goods and services than the old fashioned CPI.

Cynics at the time accused the Fed of favoring the PCE Price Index because it tended to show lower inflation. Back then, people thought that the Alan Greenspan-led Fed was looking to downplay inflation. The punchline to that joke is that after the financial crisis, the Fed's big project was trying to raise inflation to two percent a year—a task it failed at for nearly a decade.

The good news—if you want to call it that—is that the long history of undershooting inflation has come to an end. Annual PCE inflation came in at 4 percent in June, the highest rate since June of 2008. Core PCE inflation, which strips out food and energy, hit 3.5 percent, the highest level since 1991. This is far above anything forecast by the Federal Reserve earlier this year. But it actually slightly undershot Wall Street's expectations for 3.6 percent core inflation.

Changing inflation expectations were the theme of Friday's University of Michigan report on consumer sentiment from Richard Curtin. Expected inflation over the next year rose to 4.7 percent from 4.2 percent in June. That’s the highest level in over a decade. Consumers remain quite relaxed about inflation over the longer-term, seeing five-year inflation averaging 2.8 percent. That may be about to change, Curtin warns, because an "inflation storm" looms just over the horizon as consumers are increasingly willing to pay up for goods and services on the grounds that it's just a temporary blip due to the reopening. That, however, is enough to "generate an upward spiral in prices and wages," in Curtin's view. Add to that a Fed determined not to raise rates and a Democrat-controlled government determined to spend trillions. It may not be enough for an inflation hurricane, but we won't be surprised if a tropical storm or two hits.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

Olympics television ratings: nobody cares -- NBC: (link: https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2021/07/30/woke-olympics-ratings-collapse-nbc-blames-bad-luck-negativity-zero-spectators/.)

California: how did that renewable energy thingy work out? The governor now orders energy producers and consumers to massively increase CO2 emissions to prevent state-wide blackouts. I can't make this stuff up. Link here. This is so egregious I may re-post it as a stand-alone. Worse: if the California grid fails, a nationwide-domino effect is possible. China syndrome redux?

Powerline's week in pictures' theme this week: the lockdown sequel (link here).
I think they really, really, really missed it this week.

The best meme of the week: Joe Biden saying he once drove 18-wheelers. That's right up there with Algore's "I invented the internet."

Think of the "Joe-Biden-keep-on-trucking" memes:
  • visiting truck factory: I once drove 18-wheelers. They were big and bright yellow and had four wheels and a swing-out stop sign.
  • visiting NASA: I was an astronaut a long time ago; went into space before Alan Shepard. In fact, I'm still in space.
  • visiting naval base: I remember commanding a nuclear sub when Jimmy Carter was president.Wasn't he a doofus?
  • Memorial Day / VA cemetery: this is where I most feel at home. In fact, maybe I am home.
  • visiting Amtrak: c'mon man. We can do better. I remember when Congress almost changed Amtrak's name to Bidentrack. Hmmm, why not? That $1 trillion infrastructure bill needs a catchy name.
  • State of the Union Address: just think. I've given more speeches in this building than any other president, dead or alive.Where' am I?
  • visiting a 7-11 convenience store: my brother-in-law is from India. He has a string of these stores.

Sturgis: If We Can't Do Fireworks At Mt Rushmore, We Can Build Back Better In Sturgis -- Payback Hurts -- July 31, 2021

Just the links without comment. Except for one or two.

By the numbers:

  • Sturgis, 2020: 462,000 attendees
  • summer riots, 2020: 15 to 26 million
  • summer riots 43x Sturgis
  • for the most part, the riots were peaceful

Super-spread events:

  • Sturgis: yes
  • George Floyd riots: no

Summer 2021 "Delta Variant Superspreader" event schedule:

  • Lollapalooza: happening now, Chicago; 100K
  • Sturgis rally: August 6 - 15, South Dakota, up to 500K expected
  • Gathering of the Juggalos: August 19 - 20, up to 100K usually attend (their logo even looks like the Covid virus, spikes and all)

Sturgis: will open every morning with Tanya Tucker's Delta Dawn followed by the National Anthem, Lana Del Rey.

Theme song: Tanya Tucker's Delta Dawn.

AAPL: Borrowing Money To Repurchase Shares -- Doing The Math -- iPad Sales -- July 11, 2021

Jim Cramer says Apple, Inc, can now buy a boatload of its own shares -- a buyback -- having just borrowed $6.5 billion.

Let's do the math.

Outstanding shares: 16.53 billion (16,530,000,000)
Share price: $145.86
Market cap: $2.4 trillion ($2,411,000,000,000)

At $145.86, how many shares can be bought with $6.5 billion?

6,500,000,000 / 145.86 = 44,563,280

What percent of outstanding shares does that represent?

44,563,280 / 16,530,000,000 = 0.0026959 or 0.26959%.

Now, switching gears.

16,530,000,000 - 44,563,280 =16,485,436,710 shares.

Today, market cap of $2.411 trillion with share price at $145.86 and 16.53 billion shares.

Keeping market cap at $2.411 trillion; and dividing by "new number of shares after the theoretical buyback" = $2.411 trillion / 16,485,436,710 = $146.25.

So, Apple, Inc. borrows $6.5 billion for share buyback and all things being equal, increases the value of the shares from $145.86 to $146.25.

Hellooooo! AAPL shares were just shy of $150 before the buyback was announced and before the company announced it would borrow $6.5 billion for share buybacks.

In this market, share repurchases and fundamentals seem to make little (no) difference in the perceived value of these companies or their shares. It's all about MOJO, FOMO, YOLO, ESG, emotion, the Fed, and hucksters.

TheStreet headline: Apple stock gains on new bond sale plans: Jim Cramer sees share buybacks. 

Nonsense. 

They can spin this anyway they want, but the average mom-and-pop retail investor cares not for repurchase programs. 

On the other hand, the following note is what Apple fanboys like to see: Apple shipped more tablets than Samsung and Amazon did combined last quarter. Link here

While the iPad has long been the world's most popular tablet, newly published market research helps put Apple's lead into perspective.

According to estimates shared by research firm IDC, Apple shipped 12.9 million iPads in the second quarter of 2021. By comparison, IDC estimated that Samsung and Amazon shipped a combined 12.3 million tablets in the quarter, suggesting that Apple shipped more tablets than Samsung and Amazon did combined in the quarter.

iPad sales continued to surge last quarter as many people continue to work, learn, and communicate with others remotely. According to Apple CEO Tim Cook, the ‌iPad‌ had its best June quarter in nearly a decade, with the company reporting iPad revenue of $7.4 billion in the quarter, a significant increase over $6.6 billion in the year-ago quarter.

***************************
Ted Lasso

Apple's biggest hit is an overnight success eight years in the making. Link here.

Friday, July 30, 2021

That Petro-Hunt Pad North Of Charlson -- July 30, 2021

Updates

August 13, 2021: cleanup update. Unremarkable.

August 9, 2021: the fires are all out at the pad.

August 3, 2021, 1:06 a.m.: update; it's still burning. 

Original Post  

See this post for background to this story

For full production profile for the four wells mentioned in this post, see this post.

Still on fire at end of week. Started a week ago, Thursday. Goal to have it "under control" by end of this week.

Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources, briefed members of the state Industrial Commission on the fire at a meeting on Tuesday. He said three wells are on fire, and a fourth has been shut down to prevent it from catching fire as well. 

I tried figuring out what pad this was some days ago, but was unable. Now we have another hint: a four-well pad, north of Charlson and "just south" of the lake. 

Going north of Charlson to the lake, there is only one four-well pad.

Okay, I haven't found any article that tells me which pad is involved. So, I will try again. I may be way off again, and if readers convince me I'm wrong, I will remove this post or at least that part of it that is clearly wrong. 

So, here goes. Again, this is just conjecture.

Graphics below:

  • first map: the four wells, zoomed in; one will see only four wells, but five directional/horizontal legs in this graphic;
  • second map: the four wells, but note that one of the directional/horizontal legs was quite short (identified with a question mark), and the "second" horizontal from this well eventually went due south and ran parallel to the other three horizontal wells. In fact this well had two long laterals; after the short lateral abandoned, the long sidetrack #1 almost made it to planned depth, but problems again, for a second sidetrack (so this well has a lateral and two sidetracks).
  • third map: from google maps; the location of Charlson, ND, and the location of the only four-well pad north of Charlson.

First map:

Second map:

Third map:

For full production profile for the four wells mentioned in this post, see this post.

The wells:

  • 34655, 1,748, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-1H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 555K 5/21; middle Bakken; F, cum 567K 6/21;
  • 34656, 1,131, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-2H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 266K 5/21; Three Forks; AL, cum 276K 6/21;
  • 34657, 1,328, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3B-10-3H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 587K 5/21; middle Bakken; F, cum 618K 6/21;
  • 34658, 1,050, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-10-4H, Charlson, F, t8/19; cum 279K 5/21; Three Forks; F, cum 288K 6/21;

Liberty Resources -- EOR Project -- East Of Tioga -- Near Powers Lake -- July 30, 2021

Later: a reader asked what formation (Bakken, Madison, other) might be targeted below. My answer: 

I have no idea but that's a great question. Based on the fact that so much focus and experience has been on the Bakken and the fact that they are injecting "rich gas" makes me think it is the middle Bakken. But I don't know. 

Maybe a reader knows.

From Geoff Simon:

Denver-based Liberty Resources plans to take another run at an enhanced oil recovery project east of Tioga near Powers Lake.


The ND Industrial Commission approved the company's application this week to use an injection well for EOR purposes. Liberty previously worked in cooperation with EERC and the Department of Energy on an EOR project in its Stomping Horse Complex in Williams County. The project injected rich gas into an existing oil-bearing formation, but was not able to build adequate pressure to achieve the desired result.


The project approved this week is different, according to Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources. Helms said Liberty's injection mix will include a bio-surfactant intended to improve the lubricity of underground oil.

Week 30: July 25, 2021 -- July 31, 2021

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy stories:

Top international energy stories:

Top national energy stories:

Top national non-energy stories:

Top North Dakota non-energy stories:

Top North Dakota energy stories:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Wells: 

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentaries:

Miscellaneous:

Tell Me Again XOM Will Pivot From Hydrocarbon To Renewable Energy -- July 30, 2021

XOM:

Original twitter post, followed by comments. The margins were so high in 2Q21 I almost missed them. They are truly off the chart. And see the comments; could be higher in 3Q21.


Natural Gas Shortage In Europe Could Intensify In Coming Weeks -- Sources -- July 30, 2021

CLR press release: 

"Continental's dividend update is a $0.04 increase to the Company's $0.11 per share quarterly dividend paid in second quarter 2021 and triple the Company's initial dividend paid in fourth quarter 2019. With an approximately 1.7% annualized dividend yield1, our increased dividend underscores the Board's and management's commitment to returning significant cash to shareholders, demonstrates our confidence in the quality and sustainability of our asset base and competes strongly versus industry peers," said Bill Berry, CEO.

ENI: boosts dividend to pre-Covid level after strong 2Q21 earnings. 

Shell: as discussed numerous times on the blog, Shell appears eager to exit the Permian. Now this over at SeekingAlpha:

  • Devon Energy and ConocoPhillips are among potential suitors studying Royal Dutch Shell's  portfolio of Permian Basin oil fields, which could be worth as much as $10B in a sale. 
  • Chevron also is among companies considering bids for the assets which adds that suitors have been invited to Shell's data room to examine information on the business. 
  • Shell has asserted a desire to accelerate its transition to a net-zero emissions business even as it plans to appeal the recent order by a Dutch court to cut its emissions harder and faster than planned.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices are rising across Europe and Asia due to tighter supply of the commodity, lower production in Europe, and lower exports from Russia, the Financial Times reports, noting the supply crunch may intensify in the coming weeks
In Europe, the report notes, prices for natural gas have hit 40 euros per mWh for the first time ever, with UK gas prices at the highest in 16 years. This is equal to approximately $14 per million British thermal units. In Asia, gas prices have hit $15 per mmBtu.

Did anyone not see this coming? Groningen on the blog. Tracking updates here. Russia played this just right. 

Closing The Week With $74-WTI; No New Permits; Zavanna Renews Eleven Permits -- July 30, 2021

Active rigs:

$73.95
7/30/202107/30/202007/30/201907/30/201807/30/2017
Active Rigs2312586361

No new permits.

Eleven permits renewed:

  • Zavanna: ten King Charles permits, SWNW section 26-155-100; Williams County; one Galloway permit, also in SWNW section 26-155-100;

Notes From All Over -- The Whisper Number Edition -- July 30, 2021

Whisper numbers, link here. Below, 2Q21: ticker, whisper, consensus:

  • ENB: 51 cents; 44 cents;
  • CVX: $1.50, $1.54;
  • XOM: $1.11; $1.02;
  • ROKU: 31 cents; 13 cents;
  • DIS: 91 cents; 56 cents;

Earnings.

Covid - Japan:

Covid - Louisiana:

Covid, USA vaccinations, link here:

  • delivered: 399,090,105
  • administered: 344,928,514
  • at least one dose: 190,509,183
  • fully vaccinated: 164,184,080

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 30, 2021

To paraphrase Yogi Berra, No one goes to Walmart any more, it's too busy.

I don't go to Walmart any more either, except when I do ... and yesterday, traveling cross-country and needing some particular items, I visited the local Walmart. First sign I saw: "Please be patient. We are understaffed." When one first walked in, the store looked well stocked, but it was amazing how much was sold out. Having said that, the store looked really, really in good shape.

Target, curbside business? Incredibly busy when I last stopped at Target before I started my trip. 

Truck driver shortage. 

Payments to stay home.

I've not yet seen the "real" story connecting all these stories. I might come back to this over the weekend.

But I have much less time to be on the blog due to traveling.

***********************
Miscellaneous

Covid-19: White House using bully pulpit to encourage companies and states to mandate vaccinations. White House staff and White House press corps not required to be vaccinated.

Homeless: Portland, OR, has banned homeless people from camping in forested parks to protect the parks from potential wildfires and prevent them from accidentally sharing blazes during a summer of drought and record-breaking heat.

*************************************
Market

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Energy companies reporting great earnings today: ENB, CVX, XOM.

Everybody expected this but it was the whisper numbers that were not being reported. 

Some years ago "whisper numbers" were a big thing, then sort of disappeared. I've always thought "estimates" and "consensus" numbers and results seemed to be "disconnected" for lack of a better word, and never quite understood this "stuff." One wonders: why "whisper numbers"?

But we'll take a look, later. 

Robinhood: IPO -- worst ever, on record, for an IPO of this size. A lot of "retail investors" really, really got burned.  

Economic data points today, most inflation numbers and consumer spending numbers were out today. Inflation growth not as strong as expected. Of the many economic indicators, for me, one of the most useless pieces of data: consumer spending.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.52
7/30/202107/30/202007/30/201907/30/201807/30/2017
Active Rigs2312586361

Not wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: Mexico's Salina Cruz LNG project targets Latin American buyers

Just a few years ago, Mexico was focused on importing LNG to help meet its natural gas needs, especially in parts of the country far from Permian and other U.S. supplies. Lately though, most of the talk about LNG in Mexico has been about liquefaction and/or exporting, not importing and regasifying, as evidenced by a final investment decision on the EnergĂ­a Costa Azul liquefaction project in Baja California and progress on Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s liquefaction/export project in Mexico’s Sonora state. Both projects are aimed squarely at Asian markets, but yet another prospective LNG project “south of the border” is targeting bunkering, transportation, and industrial markets for natural gas along the Pacific side of Latin America — from Mexico itself down to Ecuador. In today’s blog, we discuss plans for what could be Mexico’s third major liquefaction project — this one aimed at both domestic and export markets.

Thursday, July 29, 2021

The Ovintiv Kestrel Wells In Grinnell Oil Field

Four Kestrel wells:

  • 34331, conf, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-11H, Grinnell, 
  • 34332, loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-2H, Grinnell,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213035317351222222872195673414770
BAKKEN4-20213437437000
  • 34341, loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-1H, Grinnell,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213040724405003097781799762995405
BAKKEN4-202134414410000
  • 34333, loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-10H, Grinnell,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213026473263275341259468554703929
BAKKEN4-202134374370000

Amazon: July 29, 2021

Amazon:

Tech juggernaut Amazon reported its Q2 2021 earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, missing expectations on revenue and falling short on Q3 guidance.

Here’s are the most important numbers from Amazon's report compared to analysts' expectations as compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Revenue: $113.08 billion versus $115.06 billion expected

  • EPS: $15.12 versus $12.22 expected

  • AWS revenue: $14.81 billion versus $14.18 billion expected

Covid-9 data today, link here;

  • delivered: 397,464,625
  • administered: 344,071,595
  • at least one dose: 189,945,907
  • fully vaccinated: 163,868,916

August, 2021, Hearing Dockets Posted -- IN PROGRESS

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, August 25, 2021
Three pages

The cases, not permits:

  • 28910, MRO,
  • 28911, Oasis,
  • 28912, Oasis, Painted Woods/Rosebud-Bakken, six wells;
  • 28913, Oasis,
  • 28914, NDIC,
  • 28915, Hess,
  • 28916, Kraken,
  • 28917, Citation, freshwater well,
  • 28918, Hess, pooling,
  • 28919, Hess, commingling
  • 28920, Hess, commingling,
  • 28921, Oasis, pooling,
  • 28922, Oasis, pooling,
  • 28923, Oasis, pooling,

Thursday, August 26, 2021
Four pages

The cases, not permits:

  • 28924, NDIC,
  • 28925, Resonance Exploration,
  • 28926, Enerplus,
  • 28927, WPX, four wells on an overlapping 640-acre unit;
  • 28928, WPX,
  • 28929, Hunt Oil,
  • 28930, Hunt Oil,
  • 28931, WPX,
  • 28932, WPX, pooling,
  • 28933, WPX, pooling,
  • 28934, WPX, pooling,
  • 28935, WPX, pooling,
  • 28936, CLR, commingling,
  • 28937, Ovintiv, twelve wells on an existing 1280-acre unit;
  • 28938, Resonance Exploration, conversion, SWD,

Two Permits Canceled; Five DUCs Reported As Completed; -- July 29, 2021

NOG press release:

  • total proved reserves as of June 30, 2021, increased 106% from year-end 2020 to 252.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, with an associated PV-10 value of $1.69 billion at SEC Pricing, 87% of which is proved developed
  • using strip pricing as of June 30, 2021, total PV-10 value was approximately $2.4 billion
  • the midyear reserves exclude Northern's recently announced Permian acquisition expected to close in August
  • SEC pricing as of June 30, 2021, was $49.78 per barrel of oil and $2.428 per MMbtu of natural gas
  • PDP PV-10 value alone exceeds Q1 2021 total debt by 1.5x and 2.0x at SEC pricing and strip Pricing, respectively
  • proved undeveloped reserves included 61.4 net drilling locations, reflecting an average of only 12.3 net organic wells per year over the five-year drill schedule limitation, compared to current guidance of 35.5-37.8 net wells that Northern expects to add to production during 2021 

WTI: up 1.7%; up $1.23; trading at $73.62.  

Gasoline demand: link here. Most recent week -- 9.3 million bpd.

****************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.62
7/29/202107/29/202007/29/201907/29/201807/29/2017
Active Rigs2312606261

Two permits canceled:

  • CLR: two Clear Creek Federal permits in McKenzic County

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 31392, drl/NC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 2-18-7H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 37198, drl/NC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 9-18-17TFH, North Fork, no production data,
  • 37199, drl/NC, Slawson, Mauser Federal 3-18-7H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 34341, loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-1H, Grinnell,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213040724405003097781799762995405
BAKKEN4-202134414410000
  • 34333, loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-10H, Grinnell,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20213026473263275341259468554703929
BAKKEN4-202134374370000

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Note: Internet Connection Will Be Poor -- Maybe Non-Existent -- For Next Eighteen Hours -- July 28, 2021

I'm headed into the wilderness where folks are unable to apply for Voter ID cards because fax machines are said not to exist out there. I assume if there are no fax machines, it is likely there will be no internet either. 

Ford Earnings -- July 28, 2021

Earnings surprise:

  • EPS: 13 cents vs estimates of a ten-cent loss
  • revenue: $26.8 billion vs estimates of $24.7 billion 
  • increases its full-year guidance
  • says chip shortage is easing

No New Permits; Whiting Renews Nine Permits; CLR Reports Two Completed DUCs But No Data -- July 28, 2021

Note: it's hard to say how much of this information is accurate. NDIC says some of its databases are offline while undergoing maintenance. Data was current from those databases prior to July 14, 2021

Active rigs:

$72.397/28/202107/28/202007/28/201907/28/201807/28/2017
Active Rigs2312596260

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed, all Whiting:
  • Whiting: four Holmberg permits, one Foreman Federal permit, and one Pennington permit, all in Mountrail County;
  • Whiting: three Link permits in McKenzie County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36803, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 9-11H1, Camp, no production data, 
  • 32474, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 8-11H, Camp, no production data,

Apple Supplier TSMC Readies 2-nm Chips For 2024 -- MacRumors -- July 28, 2021

 See this post for background

This is all about the size of the "chip": 10 nm, 7 nm, 5 nm, 3 nm, and now the 2 nm.

The last update:

Now today, this story: Apple supplier TSMC readies 2 nm chips for 2024. Link here.

2 nm chips for Apple.

Intel is having trouble managing 10 nm. 

From the linked article:

Apple chip supplier TSMC is planning to manufacture chips with a 2nm fabrication process by 2024.

TSMC plans to build a new factory for two-nanometer chips in Hsinchu, Taiwan. 

Construction has been cleared to begin in early 2022, with equipment being installed in 2023.

..... we may tentatively expect the first 2nm Apple chips to be the "A18" or the "M5." 

... it seems inevitable that the company will do so in tandem with TSMC since it is Apple's sole processor supplier with an expansive manufacturing capacity.

TSMC's manufacturing capabilities are also considerably more advanced than rival companies like Intel, which have been mired by delays and stagnation with older manufacturing processes, enabling Apple, as a major TSMC client, to maintain a competitive edge with its custom silicon chips. 

Earlier this week, Intel announced plans to make chips for Qualcomm.

The A14 and M1 chip debuted in devices last year and were Apple's first chips to be manufactured with a 5nm fabrication process

Apple is believed to have already booked an order with TSMC for 4nm custom silicon chips, which are due to begin production this year, ahead of the supplier offering 3nm chips from 2022. 

2nm chips in 2024 would be another progression of this miniaturization process.

TSMC is undergoing a rapid global expansion to meet demand, building a 5nm chip facility in Arizona and expanding its 28nm factory in Nanjing, China, while also weighing up the possibility of opening new factories in Japan and Germany.

Notes From All Over -- July 28, 2021 -- IN PROGRESS

Refiners: top three US refiners expected to report first profit since pandemic began. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. But is it sustainable? LOL. From the linked article:

The second quarter of this year, however, will likely see decent earnings results from all three largest refiners in the U.S.—Valero Energy, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum Corporation. That's thanks to higher fuel demand in America, increased run rates at refineries, and rising refining margins.

These three refiners are expected to report on Thursday and next week around $675 million in combined net profit for the second quarter.

But this estimate has been nearly halved over the past month—analysts expected at the end of June $1.3 billion in combined net earnings. The lower projections in recent days are the result of high oil prices in recent weeks, which dent profits for refiners, as well as sliding industry margins in June.

Concerns about the resurging COVID cases could mean that Q2 could be the 'peak profit' quarter for American refiners this year.

For Q1, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 all reported losses, but their managers were upbeat about fuel demand and refining margins going forward.

Crude oil days supply, US: drops from 27.3 days to 27.2 days. Link here.

Enterprise: 2Q21 earnings -- S&P Global Platts

  • growth spending increases as more projects sanctioned
  • record rise in second quarter profit July 28, 2021, as an ongoing recovery in demand spurred increasesin natural gas pipeline and processing volumes
  • 50 cents/share vs 47 cents/share a year earlier (2020 -- pandemic lockdown)
  • revenue jumped 64% to $9.45 billion from $5.75 billion; 
  • but look at this: total costs and expenses rose 83% to $8.12 billion in the latest quarter; say wha?
  • major projects remain on time and in progress:
    • 4Q21 completion:
      • Gillis natural gas pipeline: to connect Haynesville shale production with LNG markets in southwestern Louisiana
      • a natural gasoline treated in Chambers County, TX

Notes From All Over -- The China Map Edition -- PXD Insanity -- July 28, 2021

Olympics: I am very particular about whom I follow over at twitter. It's limited to energy for the most part but having said that, it includes some very well-read folks and some very broad-ranging media outlets. I can expect at least one tweet on any given subject every day. Most remarkable: no one -- literally no one -- is tweeting about the Olympics, except the occasional "woke" Bismarck Tribune. And wow, is that editorial staff "woke"!

No scientific sense: government says folks still need to get vaccinated even if they've had the disease. So many questions.

Trucking shortage: the other day I noted that the shortage of truckers may have nothing to do with government checks keeping folk at home. This story connects a lot of dots. Reno Airport sees fuel shortage as fires draw away truckers. Dots to connect:

  • global warming (FWIW);
  • fires across the west;
  • shortage of truck drivers;
  • KMI

British natural gas: natural gas has just hit "nearly" $14 per mBtu, first time in sixteen years. For the "shoulder summer demand season," UK natural gas prices are absolutely eye-watering.  

Pioneer Natural Resources: will be hit by an "almost" billion-dollar derivatives loss. I remember years ago the same thing happened to Harold Hamm and Continental Resources. Harold Hamm took Continental Resources in a different direction after that. He got back to the basics. Link to Reuters.

And worse? They did the same thing last quarter, though not quite as much: $691 million hedging loss, 1Q21. What was that definition of insanity? Oh, that's right, doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AMD: surging today. Earnings crushed expectations.

  • EPS: 63 cents vs 54 cents;
  • sales: $3.85 billion vs $3.6 billion
  • as good as 2Q21 was, the next quarter might be better;

ENB: TETCO natural gas pipeline waiting for regulators to give the "all-clear" sign. Link here. Why am I not holding my breath?

China/XOM$1 billion natural gas terminal -- construction begins. Guangdong. 

XOM, 2Q21 earnings: to report end of the week.

CVX, 2Q21 earnings: to report end of the week.

Saudi Arabia: value of Saudi oil exports jumps 147% in May. Link to Tsvetana Parasova

Notes From All Over -- The Summertime Sadness Edition -- July 28, 2021

$1 trillion infrastructure bill: will be signed before "summer recess." Trust me on this one.

Summertime sadness: back to masks. Imagine. The winter months are the severe months for "colds" and "seasonal flu." Imagine. If we're going back to masks now -- in the middle of summer -- imagine, what this winter is going to be like. I can only imagine. Do government agencies shut down again. Vote by mail only.

Back to masks: government agencies now requiring all employees mask, regardless of vaccination status.  

New narrative: young people will now die from delta variant. Hunch: teachers already preparing for more remote learning this fall.

$100: that's what NYC will pay for any New Yorker who gets the vaccine.

Brazil: earlier this morning I pointed out that Brazil was soon to go from being an energy exporter to an energy importer. Now this, Brazil's June oil production was 2.903 million bopd, down 1% m/m; and get this: down 3.6% y/y.

False narrative: US crude stocks at Cushing fell last week to lowest since January 2020.

US crude oil imports, in 1,000's bpd

  • Canada: from -135 to 3,476
  • Mexico: from -176 to 621
  • Russia: from +143 to 449
  • Saudi Arabia: from +4 to 363
  • Brazil: from +71 to 139

Kremlin says Biden is wrong, to say that Russia only has nuclear weapons and oil. I agree with Putin. Russia also has vodka.

UK road use (all motor vehicles): now exceeds that of 2019 -- that would be pre-Covid.

Looking for that needle in a haystack:


YouTube. Need I say more?

Re-posting, from June 4, 2021:

*****************************
Streaming: It's All About Content, Cost, and Ease of Use

Content, cost and east of use: but of the three, only content really matters. Ease of use is pretty much a non-issue any more, and, same with cost.

Hulu: until recently I did not understand Roku. Last night I spent a bit of time reading about Roku (a hardware business) and streaming businesses, like Hulu, Amazon, etc. I'm about the last person one wants to listen to when it comes to technology but, wow, I can see where the world is headed. 

Facetime: about a year ago I bought Apple's largest desktop iMac. Our dining area is configured in such a way that the iMac sits perfectly for Facetime calls with family. In addition, it is absolutely perfectly placed for watching television. I use the word "television" loosely because, yes, it's "television" as most of us understand it, but it's not my dad's "television." It's all streaming. I will have to ask our high school granddaughters if they and their peers watch "television" any more, or if they watch Hulu, Roku, Disney+, etc. 

Apple TV+: I've talked about Apple TV+ many, many times. It's a huge disappointment. So, what's better, Hulu or Roku? You can't ask that question: the former is a software / streaming / content entity; the latter is a hardware company that streams "things" like Hulu. So, what's better, Hulu or something else? Quick, name a direct competitor with Hulu. 

Google: what is best streaming tv service hulu roku. Link here for a CNET answer to that question that was posted just two days ago: best live TV streaming service for cord-cutters. Only five make the cut: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV.

What's missing: Disney+, Apple TV+, Netflix. HBO Max. Pluto TV, Amazon. Yes, I know many of these are a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but unlike Roku none of these are hardware companies (except possibly Apple to some extent, and maybe even Amazon, to a very small extent, if you want to be a purist.)

The five: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV. How did CNET rate them. It appears the panel did not want to upset any of the companies. Depending on which metric was being compared, each of the five won out in one category or another.

  • I was not surprised to see YouTube TV come out on top overall. I don't subscribe to YouTube TV but I've always had a hunch that You Tube TV would be the best.
  • Hulu, which I do use, is either as good as YouTube TV or a close second; long term, Hulu will have a huge challenge fending off YouTube TV
  • FuboTV? I bet it's gone or absorbed by another streaming company within five years
  • AT&T TV: I have no idea. CNET says AT&T TV is best for channel flippers and sports fans. It also also allows up to 20 devices to stream simultaneously where the others allow only three (or two in come cases) devices to stream simultaneously on one account; think about that -- on one account, twenty devices can be used simultaneously.
  • Sling TV: it will have to change drastically (and when it does, it will have to double its subscription price) to survive.

Apple, Inc. -- July 28,2021

From MacRumors overnight:

The two biggest Apple, Inc., stories:

  • the number of folks switching from Android phones to iPhones
  • services revenue

Most under-reported story: Apple is now inside Elon Musk's mind (Tesla's conference call). Does Elon know something about Apple's "car" project that the rest of us don't?

Hunch:

  • iPad and Mac laptops will surge in August as public schools issue iPads to first-time kindergarten/first graders entering public school;
  • huge re-supply for all elementary students returning to school this September;
  • incoming college students have spent past few months putting together tuition plans, course schedule, transportation needs, etc., but now as we come close to moving into dorms, focus will be on new laptop computers
  • we're going to see huge supply shortages of iPads and laptops by October, if not sooner; folks will accept whatever is left on the shelf and worry about upgrading to what they want later; if not shortages, delivery delays;

*********************************
Getting Into The Weeds

Highlights from the linked articles above.

iPhones:

Apple experienced "strong double digit growth" in the number of iPhone users who were upgrading an older device or swapping to an ‌iPhone‌ from an Android device, Apple CEO Tim Cook said during today's earnings call covering the third fiscal quarter of 2021. 

Cook said that it was the largest upgrade quarter for Q3 ever, and that the iPhone 12 upgrade cycle on the whole was "very strong." Sales of the iPhone 12 Pro and the iPhone 12 Pro Max were "particularly strong."

Going forward, Cook said that Apple feels "really good" about the future of the ‌iPhone‌ because 5G penetration remains "very low" and there's a lot of opportunity for sales growth in the 5G market. "We're in the very early innings of 5G," Cook said. "There are only a couple countries that are in the double digits."

Wearables:

The category brought in $8.8 billion, up 36 percent from $6.5 billion in the year-ago quarter. According to Cook, the category set a new all-time June quarter revenue record.

Wearables, Home, and Accessories includes the Apple Watch, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, HomePod, Beats headphones, and more. AirTags is in this category, and Cook said that the response to AirTag has been "enthusiastic" and "very strong."

Nearly 75 percent of customers who purchased an Apple Watch during the quarter were new to the Apple Watch, and Apple Watch is one of the main drivers of wearables revenue.

Services:

Apple's services category, which includes the App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, AppleCare, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, and more, saw another quarter of incredible growth according to Apple's earnings results for the third fiscal quarter of 2021 (second calendar quarter). 

Services brought in $17.5 billion during the quarter, up 33 percent from $13.2 billion in the year-ago quarter and up from $16.9 billion last quarter.

Cloud services, ‌Apple Music‌, advertising, video, and payments saw all-time revenue records, while the ‌App Store‌ saw a new June quarter revenue record.

During the earnings call announcing the results, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said that Apple's install base of devices hit a new all-time high as well, which helps drive services growth.

Apple now has more than 700 million paid subscriptions, which is up 150 million from last year, and is four times the number of subscriptions that Apple had four years ago.

Paid accounts on digital content stores reached a new all-time high across each geographic segment, and paid accounts increased by double digits. 

Mac and iPad:

Sales were just a bit down from the second fiscal quarter of 2021, when Apple's Macs brought in $9.1 billion in revenue. iPad revenue was at $7.4 billion, up from $6.6 billion in the year-ago quarter and again, just barely trailing Apple's second quarter earnings results.

The ‌iPad‌ had its best June quarter in nearly a decade, while the Mac set a new June quarter revenue record. Apple CFO Luca Maestri said the last four quarters have been the Mac's best four quarters ever.

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 28, 2021

Later: WTI pushes just above $72 -- at 7:49 a.m. PT, WTI is at $72.03. 

EIA's weekly petroleum report posted. Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 4.1 million bbs;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 435.6 million bbls; 7% below the five-year average;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million bbls per day; decreased by 0.6 million bpd; averaged about 6.4 million bopd; 6.9% more than same four-week period last year;
  • refiners are operating at 91.1%;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million bbls; 7% below last week;
  • jet fuel supplied was up 39.4% compared to same four-week period last  year;
  • comment: we need to stop comparing this year's data with last year's date. We need to start comparing this year's data with same period in 2019. But that won't happen.

Data points that caught my attention:

  • huge jump in crude oil imports: California? decrease in Alaska oil? more heavy oil to balance all the US-produced light oil?
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased significantly; is there a heavy oil story here -- distillates and crude oil imports? I don't know?

WTI: now up ever so slightly at 0.28%; up 20 cents; trading at $71.85. Anything below $72-WTI does not excite me. Number one driver of short-term "inflation" in the US: energy or wages? For the tourist driving cross-country this summer, what will be most noticeable? Increase in prices at McDonald's or increase in prices at the gasoline pump? Lodging expenses?

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- July 28, 2021

Top story: benchmark European continental natural gas Dutch TTF has surged this morning to €38.75 per MWh, the highest since the contract started trading in 2005. Russia controls this market. Link here. Trump warned them.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Harold Hamm: over at ArgusMedia.

Weber (as in grilling): IPO to sizzle. Link to ZeroHedge.

ENB: to report before market opens, July 30, 2021.

EPD: 2Q21 results. Transcript here.

F: to report after market closes today

GOOG: big, big winner. Why? YouTube. We discussed this previously.

Brazil: from energy exporter to energy importer?

Pfizer: huge money on the vaccine.  

Dividend announcements today:

  • WMB: no change

Dividend announcements yesterday:

  • AAPL, BKH: unchanged
  • Wells Fargo: increased; doubled from ten cents to twenty cents; link here;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Humor for the day: Elizabeth Warren is worried about the "un-banked" and the "under-banked"-- those without traditional checking accounts. She says cryptocurrency would be an alternative. LOL. Folks who won't open a standard banking account have the assets to "trade" in cryptocurrency. What planet is she on?  

DUOLINGO GOES PUBLIC TODAY! Sophia and I have been using Duolingo to learn Spanish the past two years. We have not missed one day of instruction. I love it. Sophia is getting tired of the daily five-minute course, but wow, she learns a lot. Just five minutes every day. Nothing irritates me more than public schools not providing ten minutes every day of Spanish in the classroom starting in kindergarten. Part of the problem for Sophia, too much repetition; she wants to go faster.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$72.01
7/28/202107/28/202007/28/201907/28/201807/28/2017
Active Rigs2312596260

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN EnergyCanada's energy industry steps up carbon capture efforts in the oil sands.

New and expanded efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, most notably carbon dioxide, have been making headlines globally on a daily basis for a while now. Canada’s energy industry has been increasingly contributing to that newsfeed this year, with two large projects announced in Alberta that will capture, use, and sequester large volumes of CO2 generated from the oil sands as well as other sources of oil and gas production in Western Canada. In today’s blog, we review the emissions profile of the Canadian oil and gas sector and discuss two of the largest carbon capture, use, and sequestration projects announced to date.

Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Ovintiv, Dividends, Olympics, Mental Health Day, And All That Jazz -- July 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Ovintiv, 2Q21 earnings; link here:

  • increasing free cash flow;
  • paying off debt;
  • strat plan based on $50-oil and $2.75 natural gas
  • 50% increase in quarterly dividend payment; 56 cents / share annualized;

Investing for dividends:

  • Motley Fool: three to buy if "the market crashes"; link here; two of the three:
    • AbbVie
    • EPD
  • the best risk-reward plays in oil, link to Alex Kimani;
    • number one: ENB
    • number two: EPD
    • number three: PSXP / PSX
    • others:
      • MPLX LP
      • Rattler Midstream LP
    • other MLPs:
      • Plains All American Pipeline, LP
      • Plains GP Holdings, LP
      • Magellan Midstream Partners, LP
      • Kinder Morgan, Inc (KMI)
      • The Williams Companies (WMB)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Olympics TV ratings, headlines; not selected by me; top hits from a google search:

  • Tokyo Olympics ratings a bust for NBC, a boost for streaming -- Los Angeles Times:
  • Olympic ratings plunge and star athlete stumbles heat up NBC's make-good talks with advertisers -- Variety;
  • NBC's streaming service Peacock slammed over its Olympics coverage -- New York Post;

Can you imagine Tom Brady having a bad first quarter in a Super Bowl, taking himself out of the game, saying his mind was not in it?

Covid-19:

  • the administration seems to be in panic mode; not sure if it's real or simply a "thing"; I really have no idea; but the numbers were really, really poor the past two days;
  • Mondays and Tuesdays are always bad, but this week -- yesterday and today -- were particularly bad;
  • biggest mistake in trying to get folks to get their immunizations: telling folks who are already fully vaccinated need to go back to indoor masking and the possibility of new lockdowns are back on the table; so, the cynics and under-educated will say, "why get vaccinated." 
    • all we hear is that even the vaccinated will "get" the delta virus; so again, why get vaccinated?

************************************
Brotherly Love

Pad Fire Near Keene -- Update -- Still Burning -- July 27, 2021

Updates

August 3, 2021, 1:06 a.m.: update; it's still burning.

August 2, 2021: no updates available following a google search.

Original Post 

From a reader, thank you very much.

See these two posts for the original story:

Now the update from KXNET news:

  • nearly five days, still burning;
  • contained; no fire off the pad;
  • site is on the Little Missouri National Grassland
  • a Petro-Hunt well pad;
  • barriers posted on 103 V Avenue and 47th M Street NW

The well is said to be "north of Charlson, North Dakota."

Google maps:

******************************
Brassed Off



Related:

Four New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed; And Four CLR DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 27, 2021

Finally, we get the answer. The NDIC may have posted this some time ago; if so I missed it. 

But now we know.

From the NDIC, link here:

Data Services Notification:

As we upgrade our internal reporting & database tools which send data to the website some Oil and Gas Division data is temporarily out-of-date.
Data is accurate up to July 14, 2021. Check this alert for news on when services are whole. Questions can be emailed to oilandgasinfo@nd.gov.

Active rigs:

$71.65
7/27/202107/27/202007/27/201907/27/201807/27/2017
Active Rigs2312596260

Four new permits, #38444 - #38447, inclusive:

  • Operator: RimRock Oil & Gas (3): Eagle Operating
  • Fields: Twin Buttes (Dunn); Great Northern (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • Eagle Operating with a permit for a well in Bottineau County, SWNW 20-160-83; the well will be sited 2135' FNL and 505' FWL
    • RimRock has permits for the following wells:
      • Fundmentally 15-14H, Basically 15-14TFH, and Essentially 15-14H, all in SWSE 14-147-92; the three wells will be sited 498' FSl and 2068' FEL; 523' FSL and 2084' FEL; and, 608 FSL and 2135" FEL;

Thirteen wells in Divide County were transferred from Petro-Hunt to Resource Energy Can-AM, one file #15761, but the others all in the 21XXX to 25XXX range.

Nine permits renewed:

  • BR (6): three Morganfill permits and three Kirklandfill permits, all in McKenzie County
  • XTO: a Harley Federal permit in McKenzie County;
  • Liberty Resources: a Holmen permit in Burke County;
  • Equinor: a Lucy Hanson permit in Williams County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36801, drl/NC, CLR, Alpha 6-14HSL, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
  • 36802, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 6-11HSL, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
  • 32475, drl/NC, CLR, Alpha 7-14H1, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
  • 37502, loc/NC, CLR, Miles 14-6HSL, SENE 6-150-96, Dimmick Lake, no production data,