Wednesday, July 28, 2021

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 28, 2021

Later: WTI pushes just above $72 -- at 7:49 a.m. PT, WTI is at $72.03. 

EIA's weekly petroleum report posted. Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 4.1 million bbs;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 435.6 million bbls; 7% below the five-year average;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million bbls per day; decreased by 0.6 million bpd; averaged about 6.4 million bopd; 6.9% more than same four-week period last year;
  • refiners are operating at 91.1%;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.1 million bbls; 7% below last week;
  • jet fuel supplied was up 39.4% compared to same four-week period last  year;
  • comment: we need to stop comparing this year's data with last year's date. We need to start comparing this year's data with same period in 2019. But that won't happen.

Data points that caught my attention:

  • huge jump in crude oil imports: California? decrease in Alaska oil? more heavy oil to balance all the US-produced light oil?
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased significantly; is there a heavy oil story here -- distillates and crude oil imports? I don't know?

WTI: now up ever so slightly at 0.28%; up 20 cents; trading at $71.85. Anything below $72-WTI does not excite me. Number one driver of short-term "inflation" in the US: energy or wages? For the tourist driving cross-country this summer, what will be most noticeable? Increase in prices at McDonald's or increase in prices at the gasoline pump? Lodging expenses?

4 comments:

  1. I see a bullish report again for 2021. Total stocks down 6.5 million barrels, net imports 7.8 million barrels, domestic production flat.

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    Replies
    1. I agree. The only "negative" thing I see is the unfounded concern that the delta variant will delay the re-opening. Maybe that's good: I would hate to see WTI spike to $100.

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  2. I think that the Delta variant is priced in. The current price of NG should help earnings going forward in addition to crude in the 70s

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