Global Warming In Check -- March 23, 2022

Today's milk carton photo: Greta. 

Link here.

Lots Of Work Left In The Bakken -- March 23, 2022

Updates

March 24, 2022: see first comment. I brought it up here for easier searching / browsing: 

The Rolf 1 as well as The Gjorven 1 both completed drilling in the very early spring of 2011 and required significant cost and effort to get both rigs off and get the pads ready for frac.

They sit on 56th street. I can't tell you how many thousands of loads of Scoria were bladed out on 56th street between the Hartford 1 to the east going back west to Barney 1 fixing 56th street itself and the wells on it. I had two blades working on 56th street and we probably had 12 - 20 trucks hauling to us daily.

The Hartford, Gronfur and Barney were producing but shut in until we got the locations built back up to support truck traffic. If memory serves me correctly the rig on the Rolf went right down the street to the Rennerfeld 1 and the rig on the Gjorven likely went close as well so I'd have to say two rigs drilled that field.

I'm sure a lot of folks have forgot how bad that winter was and how devastating the thaw and runoff were. You had to be there for the duration to truly appreciate it.

At the same time there were rigs done drilling mudded in on the Rosenvold 1 and Gerhardsen 1 north of Wildrose in Divide County and a rig mudded in just NE of McGregor ND on the first Lawrence Omar Eco pad. Another on the Freddie 1 south of Noonan.

We worked on all these through the summer of 2011. Doing rig moves and drill pad clean offs was considerably easier the following years LOL 

Original Post 

Random look at one section in the CLR-owned Brooklyn oil field.

Brooklyn: a small, non-descript field NE of Williston; "owned" by CLR; excellent example of how an operator systematically drilled one entire field with one rig; holding the entire field by production within a year or so; has received the most comments of any field. 

Twenty-two well locations in this screen shot. Approximately half will run north, half will run south.

The older well running from the south to the north:

• 21083, 282, CLR, Rolf 1-20H, Brooklyn oil field, t6/11; cum 444K 1/22;

Current production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	2025	1907	2281	8248	7756	73
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	1967	2062	2392	9648	9011	220
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2065	1915	2589	9066	8662	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2153	2312	2803	8231	7813	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	26	1675	1598	2230	5259	4935	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2122	2231	2243	8301	6711	1171
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2346	2287	2572	8238	7820	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1989	1964	2153	7060	6666	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	2245	2231	2214	8412	7993	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	2266	2269	2370	8327	7922	0

Jump in production back in 2019:

BAKKEN	5-2019	29	13102	13287	19792	26031	19811	5828
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	25111	25266	40169	50438	35074	14972
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	28935	28999	52607	46605	32389	13797
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	23561	23433	49985	31156	30791	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	30	19636	19251	58855	25522	24915	220
BAKKEN	12-2018	5	462	435	22	923	0	882
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	4	145	265	87	335	267	20
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1489	1614	885	3441	3025	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	29	1284	1147	691	2921	2546	0

Initial production:

BAKKEN	11-2011	30	8991	8616	2538	14460	14460	0
BAKKEN	10-2011	31	11139	11124	3110	13966	13966	0
BAKKEN	9-2011	27	10609	10549	3230	14832	14832	0
BAKKEN	8-2011	29	7372	7659	2768	9498	9498	0
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	14512	14719	6807	13969	13969	0
BAKKEN	6-2011	6	3135	2456	1597	0	0	0

The "lonely" well to the north:

• 21086, 667, CLR, Springfield 1-8H, Brooklyn, t1/12; cum 321K 1/21;

It also had a jump in production back in 2019:

BAKKEN	3-2019	31	16055	16095	43275	21599	18576	2605
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	15058	15095	43635	19929	19276	296
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	17023	16908	60591	22051	20759	874
BAKKEN	12-2018	25	5537	5149	27524	8109	4603	3198
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	2	52	0	39	1	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	27	894	1124	990	2223	1872	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	1146	1218	1131	2781	2375	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	1177	1159	1080	2809	2404	0

COVID 19 -- Chinese Flu / Wuhan Flu / SARS-CoV-2 -- Page 7

Locator: 10007COVID.

 

Page One
Page Two
Page Three
Page Four
Page Five

Page Six

This is page seven: March 23, 2022 -- present.

The best historic precedent: The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Quick links:

• Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.
• The World In Data.
  
• WSJ - Johns Hopkins data.  
• CDC: vaccine rollout.

Updates

August 21, 2023: lessons learned, Sweden. The hard way.

January 30, 2023: update -- President Biden has set May 1, 2023, as the date to end the two "emergency declarations." 

January 20, 2023: update -- China has quit testing; Japan re-classifies Covid-19 as "flu."

January 10, 2023: the most under-reported story so far this year.

December 4, 2022: tea leaves suggest Joe Biden will lift Covid-19 vaccine mandate for the military. The Kennedy family fingerprints are all over this one. [Later: the military mandate was lifted.]

October 21, 2022: the leading cause of death for those age 45 - 54, in 2020 - 2021.

October 17, 2022: starting a library on Covid-19.

• Spike: Farrar;
• Breathless: Quammen.

September 2, 2022: update here. New vaccine; statistics. 

March 23, 2022: CDC quietly updates pediatric mortality data related to Covid-19. Deaths in children revised 24% lower. 

March 23, 2022: many noted "celebrities" -- most likely fully vaccinated -- have recently tested positive with minimal symptoms: former President Obama; WH press secretary Jen Psaki (at least her second time to test positive); apparently still at work (needs to be fact-checked); former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

March 23, 2022: Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine works safely in young children; ages six months to five years; company plans to seek authorization for use. This would target the last "broad" reservoir of disease. Would add another layer of protection for immunosuppressed children. 

Moderna said the vaccine’s efficacy against symptomatic infections was 43.7% in children ages 6 months to 2 years, and 37.5% in children ages 2 to 5.

The efficacy rates were lower than seen during adult testing, which took place before Omicron emerged, but comparable to the real-world effectiveness of two doses of Moderna’s vaccine found among adults during the Omicron wave. Pfizer is soon to release its own pediatric version.

Oil: Up Again -- March 23, 2022

Noted, March 23, 2022, 9:18 p.m. CT:

• Brent: up 1.37%; up $1.66; trading at $123.30.
• WTI: up 1.15%; up $1.32; trading at $116.30.

Is GasBuddy Gaslighting Us? March 23, 2022

Updates

March 24, 2022: aha! Charles Kennedy agrees with me. He is seeing what I am seeing. Link here.   

The four-week rolling average of oil products supplied, the report said, remained almost unchanged last week at 8.82 million bpd. This is a marked departure from patterns of consumption seen over the past six years with the exception of 2020, the lockdown year.

Original Post

 For the past week I've been reading reports that the "demand" for gasoline is surging.

Now, this, today, from the EIA weekly petroleum report. I'm not seeing it.

Link here.

Three Incredible XTO DUCs Reported As Completed Today -- March 23, 2022

The Johnson Trust Federal wells are tracked here.

The wells:

• 35049, 3,171, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, 33-053-08575, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 220K 1/22; frack, 8/15/21 - 9/11/21; 9.3 million gallons of water; 89.4% water by mass;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	35188	35365	20924	102895	98529	4222
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	53362	53705	26771	130865	127655	3082
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	65724	65576	32768	154063	148316	5557
BAKKEN	10-2021	26	64502	64735	38722	144827	142047	2635
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	1042	0	4169	3077	0	3077

• 35046, 3,538, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, 33-053-08572, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 159K 1/22; frack 8/15/21 - 8/29/21; 9.5 million gallons of wateer; 89.5% water by mass;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	13	10678	11006	7835	29494	28243	1210
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	40050	40268	28463	98672	96249	2326
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	46634	46725	32212	108104	104098	3874
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	61400	61356	44520	130789	128310	2349
BAKKEN	9-2021	9	726	0	7142	3242	0	3242

• 35048, 2,383, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, 33-053-08574, Siverston, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 89K 1/22; frack, 8/15/21 - 9/29/21; 8.9 million gallons of water; 89.5% water by mass;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	39101	39182	27727	102797	98443	4211
BAKKEN	12-2021	28	49290	48723	35291	114162	111354	2696
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	743	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	743	0	1975	1658	0	1658

**************************
Home Renovation 

Putting in a new wall. 

Four New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; WTI Closes At $114.70 -- March 23, 2022

Active rigs:

$114.70	3/23/2022	03/23/2021	03/23/2020	03/23/2019	03/23/2018
Active Rigs	35	15	49	69	60

Four new permits, #38845 - #38848, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Mandaree (Dunn County)
• Comment: 
• Enerplus has permits for four new "Tailor" wells: Embroider, Patch, Seam, and Pattern; 
• they will be located in lot 1 section 5-149-93, 
• they will be sited between 835 FNL and 763 FNL and between 637 FEL and 714 FEL;

Fourteen new permits:

• XTO: six Bud permits in Williams County; four Kenneth permits in Williams County; a Frisinger permit in Williams County; a Prairiee Federal permit iin McKenzie County; and two Johnsrud permits in McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

• 35246, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 7-11-2-158N-100W TFW, Williams County

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, the Johnson Trust Federal wells are tracked here:

• 35049, 3,171, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 220K 1/22;
• 35046, 3,538, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 159K 1/22;
• 35048, 2,383, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 89K 1/22;

Snarky -- March 23, 2022

I haven't watched CNBC in about two months now. I quit watching when Jim Cramer became an oil perma-bear.

I wonder what he's saying today when the market was down about 2% and oil stocks were up about 1.5%.

What a day, huh? 

This is Not Going To End Well -- March 23, 2022

From Schwab seminar today:

• 2021, return on investment, in oil stocks: 40%
• 2022, year to date return on investment, in oil stocks: 40%
• there seems to be a pattern developing
  

Link here. 

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- March 23, 2022

Link here.

• US crude oil in storage stands at 413.4 million bbls; 13% below the five-year-average.
• US crude oil in storage decreased by a moderate 2.5 million bbls.
• US crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million bopd, up by 92,000 bopd (yawn); crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bopd, 9.1% more than the same four-week period last week.
• US refineries are operating at 91.1% of their operable capacity, the second or third week they've been above 90%.
• distillate fuel inventories decreased again; decreased by 2.1 million bbls and are now 17% below the five-year average; farmers, truckers, east coast watching.
• jet fuel product supplied was up an astounding 43.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Items of note;

• distillate fuel; and,
• jet fuel.

Not trivial.

Brent Over $120; WTI Trending Toward $115 -- The Market -- March 23, 2022

Updates

Later, 10:35 a.m. CT: EIA weekly petroleum report.

Later, 10:34 a.m. CT: whoo-hoo! It's a stock-picker's market. The overall market is down today, but for some folks, I would wager, their portfolio is doing very, very well. Oil just went over two milestones:

• Brent: over $120
• WTI: over $115
• and, this time, "it feels real.

Later, 9:16 a.m. CT: whoo-hoo! On the day the market is down, AAPL, surprisingly, bucks the trend; breaks through $170 again (it was at $155 just a few days ago). Who would have ever thought AAPL was a trading stock? LOL. 

Later, 9:00 a.m. CT: oil

• Brent: $120.90
• WTI: $114.40.

The #1 reason energy stocks are not following the price of oil "up": fear of windfall profits tax.  

Essay recommendation: from today's Literary Hub. Nothing to do with the Bakken or energy. The most successful madam in (US?) history. Speaking of which:

• the last madame of Montana.

Original Post

Diesel, how bad is it? Really bad. Link here.

What is the plural of doofus? The banks shunning oil sector leaving billions of dollars on the table, as they say. Look at this. Oil, 8:03 a.m. CT, March 23, 2022, this time "it feels real":

• oil:
  
• Brent: up 3.4%; up $3.89; trading at $119.40;
• WTI: up 3.3%; up $3.59; trading at #113.20.
• oil stocks of interest in pre-market trading:
• CVX: up 1.15%; up $1.90
• COP: up 1.62%; up $1.65
• PSX: up 1.52%; up $1.21
• EOG: up 3%; up $3.62; trading at $124.45; 52-week high, $123.19.
• DVN: up 2.5%; up $1.52; trading at $62.15;
• MNRL: down a percent; pays 4.25%;
• ENB: up 0.64%; up 29 cents
• EPD: up 0.86%; up 21 cents:
• BRK-B: up a few pennies but now above $350; six months ago: $270.
• SRE: this $124-stock now up slightly; trading at $158; 52-week range, high, $160; pays 2.9%
• Others:
• AAPL: down about a buck; after closing up $3.44 yesterday;
• FSK: down every so slightly; trading at $22.29; one month ago, $21.76; six months ago: $22.36; pays 11.3%;
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Disclaimer: I have a buy-and-hold position in almost all of the stocks listed above, but specifically and importantly, I have never had a position in FSK and doubt I ever will. 

Disclaimer: I have a very, very small position in Hershey but that has absolutely nothing to do with investing. I have never added to that position after the initial position decades ago.

*******************************
What "Demand Destruction" Is Not

Link here.

Definition of "demand destruction" here.

Demand destruction is a permanent downward shift on the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity, such as energy products, induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply. In the context of the oil industry, "demand" generally refers to the quantity consumed (see for example the output of any major industry organization such as the International Energy Agency), rather than any measure of a demand curve as used in mainstream economics.

Key word: "permanent."

It appears for some, "permanent" can be as short on a month or so.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- March 23, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

SCHD: yearly "reconstitution" --

• adds 14 new stocks;
• eliminates 13; many were spinoffs
• EOG: largest new holding;
• most significant deletion: Emerson Electric; still a fine investment but with a dropping yield;
• of the 14 new ones, 13 deleted, not caught my eye, except, EOG, of course

XOM: this is no dead cat bounce; next up, $95. Also at SeekingAlpha. 

Demand destruction: all of my rich friends have money. 

Tanking: MLB. Poster child: Cincinnati Reds. Link to The WSJ. 

Covid-19: last night I spent about twenty minutes looking at the data regarding active cases of Covid-19 in the US. 

I have never seen anything drop so fast. We're trending toward "zero" in most states. It is incredible. This morning, I see this headline in The WSJ: the Biden administration will stop reimbursing hospitals (and this included emergency rooms) for Covid-19 care for the uninsured. Coincidence? 

Healthcare cocers are scrambling to find new diagnostic code to replace Covid-19 that will still qualify for reimbursement for the uninsured. First guess? "Seasonal flu." Covid-19 will go away faster than anyone could imagine. This is not rocket science.

Corroboration?

• Germany: cases are surging;
• France: even worse; after dropping precipitously, cases now on the rise again;
• UK: same as France; after dropping precipitously, cases now on the rise again;
• Italy: ditto.

?

• Assuming cases in Europe continue to spike and Covid-19 goes away in the US, one has to ask, why?

Speaking of Covid: more and more folks are disregarding federal mandates on masking in the DFW airport. I noticed that two nights ago when I picked up Olivia at the airport coming in from Phoenix after her soccer tournament.

Ya think? Investors now buy 33% of all the homes in the US. Link here. By their definition, I've invested in property in Montana. Not true. I bought the lot from my mother decades ago and will leave it for my grandchildren. I never saw it as investment property. Although, I suppose, in a way I did. Whatever. 

Agree 1,000%: Russian billionaires who have long sheltered their fortunes abroad are rushing to move their assets; they have few options. Link here.

Agriculture: China faces what could be the worst crop conditions ever because of extreme weather. Link here. More renewable energy will help. Like ethanol from corn.

One Well Coming Off Confidential List; Oil Continues To Melt Up -- March 23, 2022

The astronomy note: what a treat. In the eastern sky this morning, Saturn, Venus and Mars are grouped together and easily seen, while Jupiter and Mercury are not far behind. If there is nothing to obstruct the horizon, one might see Jupiter, but it's likely it will "get light" too quickly and one won't be able to see Jupiter.

Hershey. I'll come back to this later. I learned two things from readers.

• painting the tape: I was very aware of the phenomenon. I just never had any idea;
• Hershey closed on its acquisition of Dot's Pretzels, last December, 2021; a natural fit -- chocolate-covered pretzels by Christmas, 2022?

Hedging: Hess paid $325 million to get out of a $100 / bbl hedge. Link here.

Bankers: I get a kick out of watching the banks ignoring the oil sector; "woke."

• today, pre-market, the indices are all red; but,
• dive deeper and oil stocks are all up;
• Bison Interests: featured in Barrons --
• oil investor Josh Young made 390% last year explains three stock picks. 
• if one runs into paywall, one can pretty much guess at his three stock picks through google: SandRidge (?); Suncor (?); Journey Energy (?). 
  

Demand destruction: the phrase is bandied about a lot. Not defined. I don't see it. Now, Josh Young weighs in:

• substantial demand increase for US gasoline;
• despite higher prices, highest ever recorded demand for a Sunday.
• we will see the EIA numbers later today.
• my hunch: EIA won't reflect that demand.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Oil: melting up. As I said yesterday, this time "it feels real."

• Brent: up 2.7%; up $3; trading at $118.60.
• WTI: up 2.5%; up $2.70; trading at $112.00.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$112.00	3/23/2022	03/23/2021	03/23/2020	03/23/2019	03/23/2018
Active Rigs	35	15	49	69	60

Wednesday, March 23, 2022: 38 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year

• 38298, conf, CLR, Rolf Federal 8-17H1,
  

RBN Energy: could Europe's gas needs revive eastern Canada's LNG export prospects, part 2. [LOL, not with the Trudeau administration.]

The European natural gas market has been in crisis this winter, with prices skyrocketing north of $100/MMBtu recently. Tight supplies, low storage levels, and a new gas-supply-security issue sparked by the war in Ukraine has many European nations, especially Germany, embarking on a crash course to increase supplies and diversify away from Russian gas imports. 

In this quest, increasing gas supplies in both the short- and long-term is a top priority and will require substantially more LNG capacity to replace — and eliminate the need for — Russian gas. With Europe’s gas-supply urgency on the rise, long-dormant prospects for exporting LNG from Canada’s East Coast are being re-examined. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential for repurposing the region’s only LNG import terminal into one that is geared toward exports.

Reminder: CLR reported a very nice well yesterday --

• 36865, conf, CLR, LCU Truman 10-23H1, Long Creek, huge well for CLR; cum 78K in less than two months;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	50959	51040	43019	80611	76756	3855
BAKKEN	12-2021	22	27010	26777	22716	45219	42919	2300
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	308	308	2283	0	0	0