This is page six: September 3, 2020 -- March 22, 2022
The best historic precedent:
The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.
Let's parse that paragraph:
- February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
- no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus
- a third of the world's population became infected
- if herd immunity requires 60 to 75%, then herd immunity was never reached
- the pandemic ended without any known reason; no vaccine, no herd immunity;
- death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
- four successive waves
Coronavirus (USA):
- December, 2019 - present
- US population: 332 million
- September 3, 2021:
- 41 million cases
- 41/332 = 12% -- well below 33% seen in Spanish flu pandemic
- well below herd immunity which requires 60 to 75% of population having contracted the disease (ignoring the vaccination rate)
- 665,000 deaths: 1.6% case fatality rate
- it was 2.4% back in November, 2020
Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.
CDC: vaccine rollout.
Vaccination rollout: Bloomberg.
Genetics. Link here. Also, here.
US re-opening, tracked here.
New York: mortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).
THE DISEASE
Long-haulers: link here. It is interesting, there's not been much published in the mainstream press about "long-haulers" any more. Posted September 18, 2021.
UPDATES
October 5, 2021: top headlines from The LA Times today:
- research has confirmed the dramatic erosion of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine’s protection against “breakthrough” coronavirus infections
- as Congress considered COVID-19 relief earlier this year, mayors from across the U.S. pleaded for “immediate action” on billions of dollars to shore up their finances and revive their communities. But as of this summer, a majority of large cities and states hadn’t spent a penny of those funds.
- New Zealand admits it can no longer completely get rid of the coronavirus.
September 18, 2021; all this "BS" about a vaccine being rushed to market before knowing long term effects, the polio vaccine was developed in the "early 1950s" and widespread administration began in 1954. On children. The shame. OMG.
September 18, 2021: people seem surprised that more than one
dose of Covid-19 vaccine is required. In fact, that's sort of the norm
for vaccine, and has anyone ever wondered why the "tetanus" vaccine
seems to last as long as ten years? A lot of folks seem to forget that
this was a Trump initiative -- Operation Warp Speed, and it was the
Biden folks that wanted to slow down the process and warn folks not to
take the vaccine.
September 18, 2021:
third weekend of college football, and packed stadiums. To the best of
my knowledge, no reports of new outbreaks or surges in Covid-19 cases
due to these packed stadiums. Of the three states of most interest:
- Texas: is still getting hit hard; third wave has still not shown much sign of slowing;
- Florida: very, very clear that Florida has turned the corner in the most recent surge;
- California: had a fairly mild stage and seems to be receding;
September 18, 2021: relative to cases, the death rate from Covid-19 is slightly more than double that in Sweden compared to Israel:
- Sweden: deaths / cases = 14,734 / 1,144,982 = 0.013
- Israel: deaths / cases = 7,494 / 1,211,443 = 0.006
Population (pretty much the same):
- Sweden: 10 million
- Israel: 9 million
Cases / million:
- Sweden: 112,523
- Israel: 129,900
Deaths / million:
- US: 2,072
- Sweden: 1,448
- Israel: 804
September 18, 2021: White House says US postal workers will follow OSHA vaccine guidance. It was a reporter who first reported, in a tweet, that US postal workers were exempt. OSHA guidelines do not yet mandate vaccines, updated June 10, 2021, which was before the executive order recently signed by Resident Biden.
September 17, 2021: Alaska once had the highest vaccination rate; now it's in a Covid-19 crisis -- ABC News. Okay. So, was their any analysis "why" things changed? Yup:
Alaska had a strong initial vaccine rollout, delivering doses to remote areas of the state by helicopters, planes, dog sleds and ferries, with additional support from the Indian Health Service and state tribal health system to vaccinate Alaska Natives. Due to the challenges posed by the state’s vast size, it received vaccine allocations monthly as opposed to weekly, giving it the ability to plan ahead and deliver many doses early on.
But, as in the rest of the country, vaccination rates slowly began dropping off over the summer, stagnating with 56.7% of Alaskans fully vaccinated as of Thursday, according to the state’s coronavirus dashboard.
September 3, 2021: push for more information on Ivermectin.
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