Thursday, November 27, 2025

It's All Good -- NFL Football And Television -- November 27, 2025

Locator: 49554ITSALLGOOD.

Macy's Day Parade -- the three-hour marathon has just ended and now we move to The National Dog Show on NBC! Holy mackerel! Those dogs certainly get a lot of treats! What a great country.   

ABC was the only major legacy network that did not get Thanksgiving Day game. ABC/ESPN has the most valuable time-slot -- Monday Night Football! 

  • FOX: 12:00 noon CT.
  • CBS: 3:30 p.m. CT.
  • NBC: 7:20 p.m. CT.

Amazon Prime has exclusive rights to Thursday Night Football but to get that contract, Amazon had to agree to "give up" the traditional Thanksgiving Day game -- the "Dallas" game.

But Amazon Prime got the better part of that deal! They introduced the "Black Friday" game, exclusively on Amazon Prime tomorrow, at 2:00 p.m. CT, which offsets their TNF this week. The stock market closes early on Friday so folks can get home in time to enjoy the game. Incredibly well planned.

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NFL Football

Let's talk sports for a minute. Why is American football -- particularly profession football -- so incredibly fascinating, enjoyable, addictive (insert your own word)? I think it's because, as a game, it is very much like chess. With regard to football, like chess, there is defense and there is offense. With regard to offense, the coach has two main options to choose from: the run or the pass. Each has its advantages and disadvantages. When I hear analysts discuss the advantages / disadvantages of each, the one thing I seldom hear discussed: time management. 

So, run vs pass. Not discussed, perhaps most important when talking about either, and seldom discussed -- time management. And time management on so many levels. Think about this: if a team needs a timeout and either has no more timeouts or doesn't want to use a timeout -- an incomplete pass can provide that needed / wanted timeout. (And if the pass is completed, running out of bounds leads to the same timeout.)

If the game is a blow-out, running vs passing probably makes little difference by the middle of the fourth quarter (or earlier). 

However, for close games (which one expects / hopes to see in championship games) time management is incredibly important. Running vs passing each provide "time-management" advantages. 

However, in close games, it often comes down to the "two-minute drill" and without question, time management is critical. It's almost predictable how long a pass play will take. A running play cost a team a lot of time -- a lot of seconds, they can ill afford to lose. Obviously running out of bounds accomplishes the same thing as an incomplete pass when it comes to time management.  This is all very, very obvious, but I never hear sportcasters mention as a chess-like way to see football, and among armchair quarterbacks and coaches, I don't think I ever hear about time management except in the obvious ways. Thoughts?

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Book Page

Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and The World, Malcolm Harris, c. 2023.

Link here

AI And Free Cash Flow -- The Wall Street Journal -- November 27, 2025

Locator: 49553AI.

Link here


Top Bakken Producers -- North Dakota -- 2024 - 2025 -- Original Post July 22, 2025 -- Re-Posted November 27, 2025

Re-posted but not updated. As usual, things may have changed since original post, but the overall story is probably still pretty accurate.

Locator: 49552B.
Locator: 48801CHORD.

Tag: Phoenix Energy, Top Producers

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. This is meant for one reader who asked about the market and Chord somehow came up in the discussion. So, it's simply a note with regard to a specific issue; it is not a recommendation for investing.

Background: in a sidebar discussion (via e-mail) with a reader earlier this morning, Chord Energy came up in discussion. 

I asked ChatGPT to provide a list of the top producers in the North Dakota Bakken. The first reply was incredibly wrong and I pointed out to ChatGPT that Chord Energy now has three wholly-owned subsidiaries: Oasis, Whiting, and Enerplus. With that information, I asked ChatGPT to re-run the data.

The second answer from ChatGPT failed to note that Grayson Mill was acquired by Devon Energy, so I had to ask a third time, point that out. This is the third "run" by ChatGPT with regard to this query. 

So, I cannot vouch for the accuracy of what follows, but here is ChatGPT's list of top Bakken producers, North Dakota, 2024 - 2025. My hunch: it's based on a combination of current and old information and may not be completely accurate:

1. Chord Energy -- Whiting, Oasis, and Enerplus:

  • estimated production: 287,000 boepd, 56% oil, 4Q23
  • net acreage: 1.3 million acres; 98% in North Dakota; balance not mentioned but probably Montana
  • "now the largest operator by far in the region thanks to the Enerplus acquisition and prior merger between Oasis and Whiting"
  • it's my understanding that royalties from Chord now come from three entities: Chord-Oasis; Chord-Whiting; and Chord-Enerplus.

2. Devon Energy (acquired Grayson Mill in 2024, a bolt-on deal for RimRock in 2022; acquired WPX in 2021):

  • estimated production: 150,000 boepd
  • net acres: 430,000

3. CLR (it's largest acquisition was Samson Resources, 2012):

  • estimated production: 140,000 boepd
  • net acreage: 1.14 million acres
  • this information may have been acquired when CLR was a publicly traded company, which was several years ago;
  • not sure how ChatGPT would have access to this information if CLR chose not to report it somewhere

4. Chevron (via Hess):

  • estimated production: 208,000 boepd from acquired Hess operations
  • net acreage: 465,000 acres in the Bakken following acquisition of Hess 

5. ExxonMobil (XTO Energy):

  • production: 100,000 boepd though it has sold portions of its Bakken assets
  • net mineral acreage: 515,000 acres

6. EOG:

  • producing: less than 100,000 estimated;
  • net acreage: 231,000 net acres in the Bakken

It took three attempts with ChatGPT to get this information; I assume the information is fairly accurate but with so many errors by ChatGPT the first two times (and major errors) one wonders.

Thinking out loud / rambling (this was in the original post; much has changed; what follows is not necessarily accurate any longer): I owned shares in Chord Energy for awhile after it acquired Oasis but then sold all my shares in Chord when it acquired Whiting. I always felt that  Enerplus was the best of the three (Oasis, Whiting, and Enerplus).

In the sidebar discussion with the reader I mentioned that I wish I still owned Chord but I am now so heavily weighted in oil I simply can't afford to have any more energy in my portfolio. However, paying a dividend of 7%; having a P/E of 7; and, being the top producer in the Bakken, Chord is looking pretty good (within the oil sector). I will raise cash (I'm always fully invested) by selling a dividend-paying ETF and substitute that ETF for Chord. I would still be looking at Chord as a takeover target.

That still leaves me with too much energy in my portfolio, so over the next few days / weeks, I will see if there's an energy position I can sell to offset any Chord I might buy.

If that makes sense. 

Not mentioned by ChatGPT in this thread, when specifically asked, ChatGPT says Phoenix Operating (Phoenix Capital Group --> Phoenix Energy) is the seventeenth largest operator in the North Dakota (and Montana) Bakken:

  • launched in late 2023;
  • by mid-2024, already ranked as the 17th most prolific operator in the Williston Basin
  • 25,000 boepd; 18,500 bopd
  • focusing on:
  • ultra-fast drilling;
  • set records in 2H2024 by drilling three-mile Bakken laterals in under 6.5 days, breaking the basin's historical pace
  • Phoenix Capital Group rebranded as Phoenix Energy reflecting its shift from merely a mineral acquirer (like NOG?) to a vertically integrated energy firm engaged in production, minerals, and non-operated interests across major US basins.

Activity Among The Helen Wells? November 27, 2025

Locator: 49551HELEN.  

The wells

  • 35919, offline late 9/25; 1,534, Petroshale, Helen 1MBH, Eagle Nest, t9/19; cum 266K 9/25;
  • 35758, remains on line, no change;
  • 37959, PNC,
  • 37960, PNC,
  • 41653, conf, Petroshale, Helen ULW-E MBH, Eagle Nest, 
  • 41654, conf, Petroshale, Helen 1TFH, Eagle Nest, 
  • 41655, conf, Petroshale, Helen 2MBH, Eagle Nest, 

The map:

Petro-Hunt Pad, Thompson 8D Pad, NENE 17-153-95 -- Random Update -- November 27, 2025

Locator: 49550PETROHUNT.  

 The wells:

  • 33976,
  • 33886,
  • 30368,
    18111
    776, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 8D-4-4H, Charlson, t5/11; cum 697K 9/25; huge jump in production 10/17;
  • 30369,
  • 30685, 1,380, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9C-4-3H, Charlson, t3/16; cum 281K 9/19; cum 663K 9/25;
  • 33887,

Wells of interest:

  • 18111: huge jump in production: 

BAKKEN5-20193111286113691977334921657716706
BAKKEN4-2019301239812465176322236022027
BAKKEN3-20191964936287174210875010743
BAKKEN2-20192711681121651296707506894
BAKKEN1-201931145881432716361658177288637
BAKKEN12-2018311505715224205823192229760
BAKKEN11-2018301425514138168220083145605314
BAKKEN10-201831147151468417502091119777918
BAKKEN9-2018301649016727196323314231050
BAKKEN8-2018311800818058197225584253680
BAKKEN7-20183118726186542234264822621254
BAKKEN6-2018291852118490490226914267130
BAKKEN5-2018301617715974594323619234073
BAKKEN4-2018724142531272343233830
BAKKEN3-2018311336013543107817386171700
BAKKEN2-2018281228112198102015598154030
BAKKEN1-2018311435614462124718249180330
BAKKEN12-2017311560015655141720020198040
BAKKEN11-2017301657016439173621634214250
BAKKEN10-2017311780217794231925838256220
BAKKEN9-20171060875680116580317566395
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20172112801495122231821720
BAKKEN6-201730189717581733401313854
BAKKEN5-2017311964200520836853350119
BAKKEN4-201730199720872003675343630



Politics: US Army Secretary Moved To Tier 1, Rogue Gallery -- November 27, 2025

Locator: 49549POLITICS. 

The Rogue Gallery is tracked here

The Wall Street Journal, link here.