Wednesday, July 11, 2018

FWIW -- Elon Musk Now Says He Will ... Well, You Need To Read It For Yourself --

Now that Thailand no longer needs his "submarine" services ....

This Page Definitely Needs A Video

Snap! Rhythm Is A Dancer

The Book Page

Gene Simmons On Power: My Journey Through The Corridors of Power And How You Can Get More Power, Gene Simmons, c. 2017.

Footprint: about the width and length of a standard-sized postcard.

Exactly the same thickness as my iPhone SE with the case on it (the iPhone case)

150 pages.

Can be read in one sitting.

Best part so far (I've only read the first 40 pages, to the end of chapter three): a) in less than a couple of pages, he "explains" Nietzsche in a way that for the first time I "understand" a bit more of that German philosopher; and, b) over several pages explains the "Hierarchy of Needs" as elucidated by Abraham Maslow in 1943. [In college, I was introduced to Nietzsche; I never, never understood  him. Now, maybe a bit.]

The bonus (so far, in the first 40 pages): the short biography of Gene Simmons and the short history of KISS.

Is Whiting Getting Ready To Frack These Wells? -- July 11, 2018

The graphic:

WTI Plunges; No New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- July 11, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs652973190185

No new permits today.

Two permits renewed:
  • Whiting: a Tomchuk permit renewed in Stark County
  • Hunt: an Oakland permit renewed in Mountrail County
Six permits canceled:
  • Oasis: three Borden Federal permits; two Fraser Federal permits; and, one Crane Federal permit all canceled in 35/36-153-100, Williams County
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 33694, 456, Oasis, Lie 5393 31-11 10T, Sanish, 50 stages; 10 million lbs, white (large/medium), ceramic (medium/small), t6/17; cum --
One dry hole:
  • 34038, dry, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 4T; Banks, the file report says the drilling to depth was successful and had an oil show; no explanation why dry;

Croatia Defeats England; Croatia Advances To Finals -- Sunday: France Vs Croatia For World Cup

Stayin' alive ... until Sunday...

Europe Is The Problem, Not China! It's All That Coal And (Renewable) Wood Chips -- July 11, 2018

Well, this is pretty funny, FWIW: CO2 emissions hit 67-year low in Trump's America as rest of-of-world rises. Link here.

Most interesting factoid: John Kemp did not re-tweet this (at least not yet). 

On another note, I assume CNBC and Rachel Maddow will cover this story in depth (below), maybe even a five-episode special. Not!

Off The Net For Awhile -- July 11, 2018


Later, 1:34 p.m. Central Time: wow, it is a fool's errand to predict the price of oil. WTI is now down a staggering 5.2%; down $3.83; and could fall below $70 before the day is over.

Original Post

US crude oil inventories decline by a staggering 12.6 million bbls, and the price of WTI is falling almost 2.5%. Now at $71.63, well below the recent high of $75.

It is a fool's errand to predict the price of oil.

Might as well continue with the previous group highlighted --

Sultan of Swing, Dire Straits

Time For Dinner

Random Look At An Early BR CCU Bison Point Well In Corral Creek -- July 11, 2018

This well was originally fracked back in 2008, open hole, with relatively small amount of water and 1 million pounds of sand, and then re-fracked in 2016.

The well:
  • 17106, 361, BR, CCU Bison Point 14-34H, Corral Creek, t7/08; cum 193K 5/18; second re-frack, t2/14/2017, with an IP of 672, 26 stages; 5 million lbs sand (mesh and large);
The well has a very strange production profile but due to all the activity (drilling and fracking) in the area, it makes sense.

The production profile since 2015 (the best monthly production after the initial frack was 5,156 bbls, back in 7/2008:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The area as it looks today:

Random Look At An MRO Small Re-Frack In Chimney Butte --July 11, 2018

A note some time ago: 17097 -- MRO, a very nice well; probably refacked, 10/14.

Let's see.

The well:
  • 17097, 421, MRO, LaDonna Klatt 24-22H, Chimney Butte, t6/08; cum 385K 5/18;
According to FracFocus, this well was re-fracked twice about the same time --
  • 8/12/14 - 8/13/14; and,
  • 9/18/14 - 9/19/14
The 8/12/14 - 8/13/14 frack:
  • 1,013,337 gallons of water (very small re-frack; 86% water; 13% sand;
The 9/18/14 - 9/19/14 frack:
  • 849,120 gallons of water (very, very small re-frack; 87.9% water; 11.64% sand; 
Interestingly, two parallel horizontal wells coming up either side of # were fracked about the very same time, #28238, and #28237 (a Mattie well and a Hollingsworth well)

Production profile around the time of this re-frack:

Random Update Of A Re-Fracked MRO Well In Lake Ilo -- July 11, 2018

The well:
  • 17049, 513, MRO, Larry Repp 31-16H, Lake Ilo, t10/08; cum 274K 5/18; re-fracked, 4/24/17 - 5/5/17; 33-025-00720 - 5 million gallons of water (half the typical frack in 2017; 86.5% water; 10.6% sand;
Partial production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Look how little water/sand was used and the great results that were returned.

It should be noted, the Larry Repp well to the west in the same section was taken off line 10/17 and has not been returned to production as of 5/18.

Dire Straits: Wow, Huge Drop In US Crude Oil Inventories -- Watch Price Of Gasoline In August -- Again, Trump Knows What He's Talking About -- He Saw This Coming -- Begged OPEC For Help A Month Ago -- July 11, 2018

So, Sherlock, explain this: US crude oil inventories drop a staggering 12.6 million bbls and yet WTI, drops significantly.

Embarrassing and tedious (the prices are in real-time):

Weekly petroleum report (link here) (can hardly wait to see John Kemp's graphics with this one):
  • US crude oil inventories down a staggering 12.6 million bbls; at 405.2 million bbls
  • distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 4.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.2 million-barrel increase, the EIA data showed
  • WTI: drops in price
  • refineries: operating at 96.7% capacity; down slightly from previous week
  • gasoline production at 10.7 million bbls (my target: 10 million bbls)
  • distillate production at 5.4 million bbls (my target: 5.4 million bbs)
For newbies, to put this drawdown in perspective: the drawdown on a weekly basis generally ranges up or down a million or so bbls/week. If the increase or decline is four million bbls, it gets my attention. A decline of six million bbls is "staggering." I'm not sure what word to use when the inventories drop by over 12 million bbls.

Some might argue that refiners pre-loaded deliveries a week or so ago in anticipation of the driving season. Maybe. We'll see. 

My concern:
  • total products (gasoline, diesel, etc) down 1.4% from the same period last year
  • over the past four weeks, motor gasoline supplied dropped to 9.6 million bbls/day, down by 1.7% from the same period last year
  • but look at this: distillate fuel product (think diesel) supplied averaged a very disappointing 3.8 million bbls per day over the past four weeks, down 6.1% from the same period last year
  • jet fuel product supplied was essentially flat compare to same four-week period last year
I've often said:
  • the best indicator or US economy: gasoline and diesel supplied
  • the best indicator of inflation: price of a McDonald's hamburger 

So Far Away, Dire Straits

BR's Anderson Ranch Wells In Camel Butte

The wells:
  • 16730, 456/IA, BR, Anderson Ranch 11-14H, Camel Butte, overall a lousy well, off-line for much of its life; t12/07; cum 141K 10/18; might be re-fracked; production might improve after neighboring fracks; regardless, it served its main purposes: a) provided geologic information of the drilling unit; and, b) more importantly, held the lease ten years through production. We discussed that when the well was first drilled; intermittent production for past several months; 9/19; off line for months / years, now 17 days of production, 8/21; with 114 bbls of oil;

  • 33592, 247, BR, Anderson Ranch 1E MBH, Camel Butte, t7/19; cum 186K 9/20; cum 253K 8/21;
  • 33593, 250, BR, Anderson Ranch 1D TFH, Camel Butte, t7/19; cum 143K 7/21; off line 8/21;
  • 34207, 60, BR, Anderson Ranch 1C MBH, Camel Butte, t7/19; cum 145K 9/20; cum 193K 8/21;

  • 33589, 411, BR, Anderson Ranch 2A TFH, Camel Butte, huge well, t4/18; cum 450K 8/21; GL;
  • 33590, 372, BR, Anderson Ranch 2B MBH, Camel Butte, huge well, t4/18; cum 337K 8/21; GL;
  • 33591, 441, BR, Anderson Ranch 2C TFH, Camel Butte, huge well, t4/18; cum413K 82/1; GL;

  • 32635, 476, BR, Anderson Ranch 3A-MBH, Camel Butte, huge well, t5/17; cum 416K 9/20; off line 8/19; remains off line 9/19; back on line 8/21; 358 bbls over 7 days;
  • 32628, 540, BR, Anderson Ranch 3B-TFH, Camel Butte, huge well, t5/17; cum 509K 9/20; offline 8/19; remains off line 9/19; back on line 1/21; cum 532K 8/21;
  • 32627, 415, BR, Anderson Ranch 3C-MBH, Camel Butte, huge well, t5/17; cum 285K 10/19; remains off line 9/20; back on line 3/21; cum 300K 8/21;
  • 32626, 590, BR, Blegen Ranch 3D TFH-ULW, Camel Butte, four sections, huge well, t5/17; cum 441K 9/20; huge jump, 3/19;  back on line 2/21; cum 476K 8/21;

  • 24127 (not in graphic below; just to east of #32626), not refracked; huge jump in 9/18; 2,487, BR, Lloyd 14-24MBH, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 360K 1/20; remains off line 9/20; back on line 12/20; cum 378K 8/21;


October 19, 2018: see update, this post.

July 11, 2018: updated graphic:

From an earlier note:
March 4, 2017: check on halo effect on these two wells (#16730 and #17718) in the next couple of months or so. See this post.  As of 12/17, #16730 still off-line; #17718 back on line but minimal jump in production; just went off-line 5/18; the three wells in between #16730 and #17718 are #33589, #33590, and #33591.
In the graphic below, the two wells, #17718 and #16730, were both taken off-line when the three horizontals between them were fracked. Obviously there were portions of #16730 that were much closer than 0.7 miles.

In this case, it does not appear that there was any noticeable bump in production for #17718, but we have production data for only 17 days after the well was brought back on line.

For #16730, it is still off-line and has been off line for almost a full year. #17718 was taken off line late 4/18; it is still off line through 5/18;

These three wells have been recently completed:
  • 33589, 411, BR, Anderson Ranch 2A TFH, t4/18; cum 286K 7/19;
  • 33590, 372, BR, Anderson Ranch 2B MBH, t4/18; cum 254K 7/19;
  • 33591, 441, BR, Anderson Ranch 2C TFH, Camel Butte, t4/18; cum 266K 7/19;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Other Anderson wells:

June 12, 2017: an older well, #16730 (API: 33-053-02815) runs right next to two recently fracked wells; new production data not yet available; check production data in a couple of months; still off-line as of 7/18; the other two wells:
  • 32635, 476, BR, Anderson Ranch 3A-MBH, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 394K 7/19; (#16730 -- still off-line)
  • 32628, 540, BR,Anderson Ranch 3B-TFH, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 470K 7/19; (#16730 -- still off-line)
  • 32626, 590, BR, Blegen Ranch 3D TFH-ULW, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 383K 7/19; see this post;
  • 32627, 415, BR, Anderson Ranch 3C-MBH, Camel Butte, t5/17; cum 279K 7/19;

For Business -- Texas #1 -- CNBC -- July 11, 2018

From CNBC:
  • Texas claims the top spot in CNBC's 2018 America’s Top States for Business rankings
  • The energy sector is helping to turbocharge the $1.6 trillion Texas economy
  • Texas has added more than 350,000 jobs in the past year
  • Texas is home to some of America's most important public and private companies, including giants like AT&T, ExxonMobil and Dell
  • forgot to mention Toyota US headquarters in Plano, TX
During the Bakken boom, the local U-Haul dealer had trouble staying in business. Everyone was moving in; no one moving out. The dealer had to lease more land just to "store" all the U-Haul trucks and trailers coming into Williston.

Now, I'm seeing the same thing in Grapevine, TX, north of Ft Worth -- outside DFW airport. I drive past the local U-Haul dealer every day on my way to McDonald's or Starbucks, and his lot keeps filling up with more trucks and trailers. It's really quite remarkable.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Buying opportunity. The anxiety about the trade war will dissipate (for investors) as soon as earnings season gets underway.

EVs and CO2: we've been talking about this on the blog for years. EVs will drive increased electricity demand. The DOE says as much as 40% by 2050. Beneficiaries: short term -- 20 year: natural gas; after that: coal.

Dirty air: As for air pollution, WalletHub says Huntington Beach, Los Angeles, Santa Ana, Bakersfield, and Riverside have the dirtiest air in America. Comes from WalletHub's annual list of 10 worst-run cities in the US.

Watering The Plants Before Going To School

Active Rigs In North Dakota Hold Steady At 66 -- July 11, 2018

Drudge banner today -- "OPEC oil output jumps; Saudi opens taps"; from CNBC --
  • Saudi Arabia's oil production jumped by nearly 500,000 barrels per day in June as it aims to put more supply into the market to tame the cost of crude
  • output from the 15-member producer group OPEC was up 173,000 bpd as the group prepares to lift production caps in place since 2017
  • OPEC forecast that global oil demand will cross 100 million bpd for the first time in 2019, but warned trade tensions could negatively impact the market
  • no mention that Saudi production always goes up in the summer, but this might be a bit earlier than usual, and a bit more than usual for June
  • no mention that Saudi is increasing its own domestic refining and processing
  • production numbers important; export numbers more important
OPEC basket: up about 1%.

Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut scheduled to be released, Friday, July 13, at 3:00 p.m.

Coming off the confidential list today --
  • 34070, 1,200, Hess, AN-Double Bar V-152-95-0106H-2, Antelope, Sanish; t5/18; cum 16K over first 15 days;
  • 33962, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 5-29-32-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 33551, 1,385, Liberty Resources, Esther 158-93-28-33-4MBH, Enget Lake, 27 stages, 9.45 million lbs, large, t1/18; cum 100K 5/18;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs662973190185

RBN Energy: how the IMO's low-sulfur bunker rule may impact the refining sector.