Oracle -- Huge, Huge Jump In Sales Forecast -- September 12, 2024

 Locator: 48575TECH.

Updates

September 13, 2024: same story as original post, but with more data -- in pre-market trading, ORCL up almost 6% this morning.

Oracle Corp said annual revenue will rise to at least $104 billion in fiscal 2029, an optimistic signal on the growth prospects of the software maker’s cloud infrastructure business.

Executive Vice President Doug Kehring delivered the forecast Thursday at Oracle’s annual briefing for financial analysts. Oracle also raised its sales outlook for fiscal 2026 to at least $66 billion from a prior target of $65 billion. On average analysts estimated revenue of $64.5 billion for 2026, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The Austin-based company, known for its database software, is focused on expanding its toehold in cloud infrastructure, which rents out computer power and storage to compete with Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Oracle’s cloud has developed a reputation for success with generative artificial intelligence workloads — the company touted customers including including Reka and Elon Musk’s xAI.

 

Original Post 

Holy mackerel! I had just put my laptop away to relax a bit: watch Sophia at soccer practice and read awhile (see "book page" earlier). I made the mistake of checking the iPhone one last time and this popped up -- Oracle!

Are you kidding me! 

Everything, everywhere happening all at once.

I've always had a position in Oracle -- maybe started two decades ago -- I've long forgotten but about six months ago I started aggressively adding to that position -- Oracle just seemed under-priced, under-valued, forgotten compared to the magnificent seven. In fact, more on that later, perhaps. So, I've been excited about the Oracle headlines the last week or so.

Now tonight, link here:

Revenue of $66 billion is about $1.5 billion more than what analysts had forecast. What was revenue for most recent reporting period?

4 x $13.3 billion = $53.2 billion.

MRO Has A New Permit For Another Well In Its Prolific Bailey Oil Field -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48574B.

From today's daily activity report:

• MRO has a permit for a Halcrow well, SWSW 9-145-93;
• 4113, MRO, Halcrow 14-9H, Bailey oil field, Dunn County;
  
• to be sited 615 FSL and 675 FWL;

The map:

Grayson Mill's New Permits For Lonnie, Bratcher, and Helling Wells in Ragged Butte -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48573B.

From today's daily activity report:

• Grayson Mill has permits for two Helling wells, two Lonnie wells; and one Bratcher well, NWNW 15-151-101; 
• to be sited 349/350 FNL and between 300 FWL and 525 FWL;

The maps: the Lonnie, Bratcher, and Helling pads. The Lonnie wells run north to south; the Bratcher wells run south to north.

Thirteen New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48572B.

Disclaimers apply. In a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. I will correct them if/when I find them.

Investing: how many times were we reminded of the following earlier this month?

A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares. 

 

And, then, of course, we have the rate cut coming, which is already "baked in."

Kroger: shares surged today -- Kroger is our favorite among four -- Kroger, Walmart, Tom Thumb/Albertsons, Target.

Cramer's last hour: first story -- Broadcom (AVGO), then Nvidia (NVDA)

• a lot of folks dumped the stock this past week when they panicked
• NVDA is up 16% this week

Broadcom: one of two companies that will profit the most from the new iPhone. Link here. Broadcom and Cirrus Logic. Broadcom and Cirrus are each found three times in the iPhone. 

Cirrus Logic will benefit from Apple using its parts for camera upgrades on the iPhone 16 series. 

"Positive implications" for Cirrus Logic include the iPhone 16 Pro upgrade to the tetraprism lens design, joining the Pro Max model. Cirrus Logic also likely will provide the haptics driver for the new camera control button and controllers for new Ultra Wide cameras across the iPhone 16 family.

Moderate and slightly positive implication for Analog Devices and Qualcomm, respectively.

But, and this is a biggie, Skyworks is seen losing RF content to Qualcomm this round.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacting (TSM) is producing the A18 and A18 Pro chips for the "16" lineup. TSM reported sales two days ago for the month of August; sales for the month of August were up 33% y/y keeping it on track to meet third-quarter targets.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.97. Big jump today.

Active rigs: 40.

Thirteen new permits, #41123 - #41132, inclusive:

• Operators: Grayson Mill (5); Hunt; Whiting, MRO (2), Murex, Petro-Hunt (2), Zavanna.
• Fields: Ragged Butte (McKenzie); Alexandria (Divide); Glass Bluff (McKenzie); Bailey (Dunn); Alexander (McKenzie); and, Keene (McKenzie).
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has a permit for a USA well, NENW 25-153-96; 
• to be sited 332 FNL and 2021 FWL; 
• Petro-Hunt also has a permit for a Klevmoen Trust well, SESE 17-153-95; 
• to be sited SESE 17-153-95;
  
• Murex has a permit for LA-Riley Kyle, NWNE 25-151-101; 
• to be sited 295 FNL and 2000 FEL;
  
• MRO has a permit for a Halcrow well, SWSW 9-145-93; 
• to be sited 615 FSL and 675 FWL;
• MRO also has a permit for a Shepard well, lot 2, section 5-145-93; 
• to be sited 699 FNL and 2349 FEL;
  
• Whiting has a permit for a Gullikson well, SESW 31-152-103; 
• to be sited 1097 FSL and 1819 FWL;
  
• Hunt has a permit for an Alexandria well, SESW 17-161-100; 
• to be sited 325 FSL and 1595 FWL;
  
• Grayson Mill has permits for two Helling wells, two Lonnie wells; and one Bratcher well, NWNW 15-151-101; 
• to be sited 349/350 FNL and between 300 FWL and 525 FWL;
  
• Zavanna has a permit for a Sawyer well, SESE 13-154-99; to be sited 504 FSL and 764 FEL;;
  

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34061, 1,741, SOGC (Sinclair), Birhorn 5-6H,
• 37705, 1,089, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 3-6H,
• 40286, 3,585, MRO, NOreen 44-12TFH,

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- EV Prices Plunging -- Thursday, Septermber 12, 2024

Locator: 48571TEXAS.

Unity pops today. Unity was on my watch list. I came close to initiating a position in Unity some weeks ago, but, unfortunately, did not, for some reason. However, the money that would have gone into Unity went into other components of the "Mag 7." No complaints. U and NVDA in the past year:

Thursday Night Football: I remember vividly the note I posted when Amazon acquired rights to NFL's Thursday Night Football. A reader opined that this was a disaster for Amazon; TNF was known for lousy match-ups. CNBC interviewed Al Michaels earlier this afternoon. Al Michaels will be calling the game tonight. It was noted that TNF grew 24% year/year. The match-ups are now second to none.

Symbiotic relationship: in fifty years of investing, I've never seen an investing sector like tech. In every other sector, it seems, it's cut-throat competition. Banks: they're all the same. They're cut-throat trying to get your business. Retail: they're all the same. They're cut-throat trying to get your business. But when it comes to chips, yes, there's a lot of competition, but vendors and customers are all frequently sitting at the same table, working together to come up with the end product. Exhibit A: the Apple iPhone. 

Apple's iPhone suppliers:

Sure, many suppliers compete among each other, but for the most part, each major supplier has a unique niche and they all need to work together if the end result is to be successful.

Shout Out To Weinberger's In Grapevine, Texas -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48570TEXAS.

Apple: hearing aids. Link here.

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Back to the Good Stuff

Reddit is a national -- or global -- social media site.

The other day some subject came up that involved Texas politics.

Out of the blue, this post, off-topic:

Probably the best deli restaurant anywhere in the continental US.  

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The Book Page

For the summer reading program, two new books today:

The Horse: A Galloping History of Humanity, Timothy C. Winegard, c. 2024.

Geniuses At War: Bletchley Park, Colossus, and the Dawn of the Digital Age, David A. Price, c. 2021.

The prologue from Geniuses At War:

Prologue

V-1, V-2, Wernher von Braun.

Bletchley Park: 55 miles northeast of London.

Germans never learned of Bletchley Park during the war.

Bletchley Park (BP): home of the British signals intelligence agency, cover name, Government Code and Cypher School, or GC&CS. Main task: reading intercepted radio messages of the Third Reich's military.

WWII: a cryptographic war like none before.

German U-boats drove the need for radio signals.

About 1/3rd of the way through the war: Enigma code broken.

Hut 8: team led by British chess champion Hugh Alexander and 27-y/o Cambridge-trained mathematician, Ala Turing. BP able to read naval Enigma traffic temporarily in 1941 and permanently starting in late 1942 -- Turing's invention, the Bombe.

The conquest of Enigma was only a warm-up. A different section of BP, known as the Newmanry, would become the site of the greatest decryption achievements of the war and the launch of the digital age.

I was part of the US intel network at the turn of the millennium and assigned to northern England.  

Reading this prologue made me incredibly "lonesome" for that period in my life. Unfortunately I can't talk about it much, but it was incredible period for me, a life-altering event that lasted several years, and still affects me today.  A first look at the book suggests it's pretty "light" reading but I anticipate a very, very interesting read.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- EV Prices Plunging -- Thursday, Septermber 12, 2024

Locator: 48569CRAMER.

Unity was on my watch list, but I missed it.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

First story: volatility yesterday.

EVs: prices plunging. Link here.

R2P (in the UK); P2P in the US? Google it. I get a kick out of folks complaining about R2P at McDonald's when "everyone" uses R2P at their local gas station or when charging their EV.  Bottom line: MCD is going to solve myriad problems when they go fully kiosk. I don't think a lot of folks understand how to best use apps when ordering.

Nvidia CEO: the collapse of Intel as a company. Time to get rid of all CPUs and replace them with GPUs. I missed this conversation yesterday. 

Nike: erosion of Nike equals the erosion of Nvidia. 

Personal investing: yes, Sophia will be adding to a tech position today. AAPL up in pre-market trading. Whoo-hoo.

Gasoline demand: link here.

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Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- Thursday, September 12, 2024

Locator: 48568CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

HIV: Gilead now has twice-a-year injection that "completely" prevents HIV. Color me impressed.

McDonald's: still my favorite hamburger. And no one else offers a better French fry. Period. Dot. Don't go out much any more. Maybe once every six months. Unless I'm traveling. Without question, McD's number one competitor is Chipotle and long term the latter will win out. See fifth largest economy in the world below -- their restaurant? Chipotle.

I was pleasantly surprised by the McDonald's I visited last night. Footprint about half the size of a typical McDonald's. Couldn't see the kitchen. All kiosks for ordering. Frank-Lloyd-Wright minimalist when it comes to front counter ordering. McDonald's of the future? For me, it really, really works. It no longer matters what language is spoken. It's all pictures. And numbers less than 10. From Reddit today:

Grocery inflation, link here. If you're not seeing this where you shop, your grocer is price gouging. I shop regularly at Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Tom Thumb / Albertson's -- and it's amazing how much prices vary. One of the four is consistently pricier. 

US Latino GDP hits $3.6 trillion. Fifth largest economy in the world. Currently leads GDP of India, France, and UK; will soon surpass GDP of Japan and Germany. Should be a business conversation, not a political conversation. But when the US Latino GDP surpasses the GDP of India that gets my attention. American exceptionalism.

Trump's alma mater: MAGA acolytes should prefer Harris' proposal over that of Trump's. Link here. Deficit estimates. Deficit increases this much under each of their proposals:

• Trump: increases the deficit by $6 trillion
• Harris: increases the deficit by $1 trillion
• but most MAGA folks are a lot smarter than Penn's Wharton so this projection won't resonate.
• childless cat ladies and pet-eating immigrants live rent-free in MAGA minds. 
  

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

The Magnificent 7 -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48567INV.

Links today from twitter. 

TSMC stock rises after Nvidia CEO praises the chip maker. Link here.

Comp sheet for the major tech companies now that 2Q24 earnings have ended. Link here.

Fifteen companies that have had the most impressive 2Q24 earnings. Link here. Most are tech, but not all. CAVA makes the list. Palantir listed first; Qualcomm made the list.

And it sold off! Say what? Link here.

Buy the dips. Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Thursday! TNF -- Buffalo - Miami -- September 12, 2024

Locator: 48566B.

ENB: I haven't paid attention to the market in the past two weeks -- not to the extent I usually do. In periods of great volatility, I avoid checking the market, though it's hard to avoid what's going on when one surfs the net like we all do. 

Having said that, I was blown away by how well ENB is doing -- checking out the one-month-, six-month-, and one-year chart. Pretty amazing, considering. And on top of that, ENB is now paying 6.63%. The story over at EPD is similar and EPD pays 7.25%.

Mag 7: there's a reason there's a "Mag 7." Something no one else has mentioned. We'll explore it later today.

Telecom: Verizon to acquire Frontier Communications, the latter, an internet service provider based in Dallas. Expected to close in 2026; a huge number of hurdles before this happens.  If completed, the deal would expand Verizon’s fiber network service “Fios” into Texas where Frontier Communications currently serves multiple cities. On the other hand, Verizon does not currently offer fiber network services in any part of Texas, according to its website. Does anyone else find that simply amazing: Verizon does not currently offer fiber network services in any part of Texas.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.48.

Friday, September 13, 2024: 32 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 484 for the year
None.

Thursday, September 12, 2024: 32 for the month; 160 for the quarter, 484 for the year
39932, conf, Hess, RS-Feldman-156-92-1423H-3,
39931, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-4,

RBN Energy: rising interest in Gulf Coast natural gas storage spurs a slew of projects. Archived.

Fast-changing dynamics in Gulf Coast natural gas, electricity and LNG export markets are increasing the value of gas storage in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi — or, more specifically, the merit of quickly injecting and withdrawing gas to respond to market swings. As a result, interest in developing gas storage projects with high “deliverability" rates has taken off, with billions of cubic feet of new storage capacity already coming online and a lot more in the works. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll begin a look at why so many market participants — power generators, LNG operators/offtakers, midstreamers, marketers and traders — are chasing the “extrinsic” value of gas storage and where the new storage projects are being built.