Thursday, September 4, 2025

Broadcom (AVGO) -- September 4, 2025

Locator: 49015AVGO.

Updates

September 6, 2025: ChatGPT says the $10 billion most assuredly came from OpenAI and most assuredly NOT from Apple. 

Later, 6:51 p.m. CT: Broadcom (AVGO) "popped" on $10-billion customer. Link here. There are several story lines here for investors, but I'm traveling and don't have time. Quick: name a company with deep pockets -- who could easily afford $10 billion -- and a company that is very, very secretive, and a company that already has a very, very close relationship with Broadcom. [Regardless, Sophia is going to get a new pair of shoes this weekend. LOL.]



Original Post

GDPNow: 3.0 estimate for 3Q25; released today. Though 3.0 is still strong, it's been trending down.

AVGO
Broadcom (AVGO)
3Q25 Earings

Avgo reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with record revenue and adjusted earnings that topped analyst expectations. The positive results were fueled by surging demand for AI products, custom AI accelerators, and a growing infrastructure software business, though the stock saw a slight dip in extended trading.

Third-quarter financial highlights:
  • Record Revenue: Broadcom reported revenue of $15.95 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year, and exceeded analyst estimates of $15.83 billion.
  • AI Revenue Jump: The company's AI-related revenue surged 63% year-over-year to $5.2 billion, driven by custom AI chips and AI networking solutions.
  • Adjusted Earnings Beat: Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.69, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.66 and representing a 36.3% increase from the year-ago quarter. Infrastructure Software Growth: The infrastructure software segment, which includes VMware, accounted for 44% of sales and saw continued momentum.
Key growth drivers:
  • Accelerated AI Demand: CEO Hock Tan highlighted the strength of AI semiconductor solutions, including custom AI accelerators and networking products, as the primary driver of growth.
  • Hyperscaler Investment: The company is benefiting from ongoing investments in AI by large cloud computing companies like Alphabet and Meta.
  • VMware Integration: The strategic acquisition and integration of VMware have significantly boosted Broadcom's infrastructure software business.
Business outlook and market reaction:
  • Strong Guidance: Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Broadcom projected revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, exceeding expectations.
  • Market Skepticism: Despite beating estimates, the stock slipped in extended trading. This may be due to high investor expectations, following a significant rally in Broadcom's share price over the past year.
  • Industry Context: The slight negative market reaction follows a similar trend seen with other AI chipmakers like Nvidia and Marvell Technology, whose stocks experienced short-term pullbacks after strong earnings reports.

Ticker:

Thursday -- September 4, 2025

Locator: 49014B.

AI: tokens and emojis. If I can figure out how to articulate what I'm thinking I'll talk about this later. It was an a-ha moment for me when talking to my tech-brilliant brother-in-law. 

Jobs: link here. I was really wrong. I was convinced for the past year that there would be no rate cuts in calendar year 2025. Now, the question is how many and how much by the end of the year. Remember: We're now talking about JPow's legacy.

Donald Trump: link here. Does this guy ever sleep? 24/7. He must be having the time of his life.

Natural gas, link here:


Natural gas: see today's "early access" RBN Energy blog. Down below.

Wi-Fi Air: link here. Wow, Amazon's Project Kuiper and T-Mobile. There are different definitions / reasons for moats. In the "tech" world there are two moats: a) deep pockets; and, b) a CEO with a strategic vision.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.17.

New wells:

  • Friday, September 5, 2025: 8 for the month, 101 for the quarter, 541 for the year, 

    • 40503, conf, Hess, GO-Foss Fam TRST-156-97-2314H-4,
    • 36719, conf, Enerplus, Fort Berthold 148-94-19C-18-6H,
    • 36718, conf, Enerplus, Fort Berthold 148-94-19C-18-7H,
  • Thursday, September 4, 2025: 5 for the month, 98 for the quarter, 538 for the year,  
    • 40652, conf, Oasis, Lake Trenton Federal 5302 21-31 3B,

RBN Energy: forecasting Texas / Louisiana data center demand for natural gas. Archived.

Which is true, A or B? (A) Data center demand to power AI applications is the most transformative force to hit energy markets in years, or (B) This is one of the most overhyped, inflated narratives ever. We hear a constant stream of announcements, promotions and proclamations from developers, tech giants, utilities and politicians, many predicting a revolutionary surge in electricity and gas demand that will change everything. At the same time, others warn of a speculative bubble destined to pop. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, sorting out which side is closer to reality is one of the most important questions facing U.S. energy markets.