Monday, January 25, 2016

"The End Of Snow" -- The New York Times -- Two Years Ago -- January 25, 2016; Reason To Believe


January 26, 2016: from China, today --
The eastern province’s coldest weather since 1992 is expected to continue until January 26, 2016.
Authorities are struggling to restore electricity and ensure food and warmth as the worst cold front in years sweeps across most of China.
Temperature in Beijing dropped to below minus 10C on Friday and was expected to hit a 30-year low of minus 17C from Saturday through Sunday, the Beijing meteorological station said.
Original Post
I would have put these as updates to an earlier post, but the NY Times article, "The End of Snow," required its own stand-alone post. The other two posts were posted earlier on the blog. 
From The New York Times
The planet has warmed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1800s, and as a result, snow is melting. In the last 47 years, a million square miles of spring snow cover has disappeared from the Northern Hemisphere. Europe has lost half of its Alpine glacial ice since the 1850s, and if climate change is not reined in, two-thirds of European ski resorts will be likely to close by 2100.
The same could happen in the United States, where in the Northeast, more than half of the 103 ski resorts may no longer be viable in 30 years because of warmer winters. As far for the Western part of the country, it will lose an estimated 25 to 100 percent of its snowpack by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed — reducing the snowpack in Park City, Utah, to zero and relegating skiing to the top quarter of Ajax Mountain in Aspen.
The facts are straightforward: The planet is getting hotter. Snow melts above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. The Alps are warming two to three times faster than the worldwide average, possibly because of global circulation patterns. Since 1970, the rate of winter warming per decade in the United States has been triple the rate of the previous 75 years, with the strongest trends in the Northern regions of the country. Nine of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, and this winter is already looking to be one of the driest on record — with California at just 12 percent of its average snowpack in January, and the Pacific Northwest at around 50 percent.
Amazing. Snow melts above 32 degrees Fahrenheit. California''s snowpack may set records in 2016. Sometimes I think I'm beating a dead horse. 
These were taken from a great Rush transcript. A huge "thank you" from a reader.

I doubt The New York Times wants to talk about this any more.

I Don't Want To Talk About It, Rod Stewart and Amy Belle

I wanted to put something up by Amy Winehouse -- she seemed to fit the moment for some reason -- but I couldn't find a song that would fit. Maybe later.
If I listen long enough to you, I will find a way to believe that it's all true;
Knowing that you lied; straight-faced while I cried.
Still I look to find a reason to believe.
Someone like you, makes it hard to live without somebody else;
Someone like you, makes it easy to give, never think about myself
If I gave you time to change my mind; I'd find a way just to leave the past behind,
Knowing that you lied, straight-faced while I cried.
Still I look to find a reason to believe ...
Reason To Believe, Rod Steward
Just to put it out there, all this talk about Hillary Clinton's coughing spells due to a thyroid disease is pure malarkey. Even if there was any connection, hypothyroidism is easily treatable with thyroid supplements. I have no idea what is causing Hillary's coughing spells, but it ain't hypothyroidism. HIV? AIDS? Tuberculosis? Asthma? Bronchospasm? Panic attacks? Cancer? COPD? Post-nasal drip? GERD? Whatever it is, it seems pretty serious; she should sign up for ObamaCare and schedule an appointment with a psychiatrist. This site is as comprehensive as I've found and hypothyroidism is not mentioned. But like global warming, if you say it enough times, it soon becomes true. Or at least a meme.

Speaking Of ObamaCare

In today's Los Angeles Times: enrollment growth in ObamaCare insurance slower than expected.

Expected by whom? LOL.
In any given month this year, about 13 million people on average are now expected to be enrolled in a health plan purchased on a marketplace created by the law, often called Obamacare.
That is down from 21 million people previously estimated by the budget office, whose projections about the impact of legislation are closely watched by both parties in Washington.
"Often called Obamacare." LOL.

If one rearranges the letters that spell Obamacare, one gets trainwreck. 

When A Good Article Goes Bad -- January 25, 2016; EVs Have Caused The Crude Oil Supply/Demand Debacle -- The [London] Telegraph

This may or may not be a helpful article, the article in The [London] Telegraph. I don't know. It seemed reasonable until I got to this paragraph:
Global climate accords have changed the rules of the game and electric vehicles are breaking onto the scene. 
There are no "global climate accords." There are some unenforceable self-serving statements by countries as diverse as China and the United States, but it/when "push comes to shove," meeting the demand for fossil fuel in any individual country will take precedence over any "global climate accord."

And that second part, the part about "electric vehicles are breaking onto the scene," that's just simply laughable if anyone factors electric vehicles into today's crude oil supply and demand scenario. 

Your Good Girl's Gonna Go Bad, Tammy Wynette

Hess With Five (5) New Permits; Halcon Reports A Huge Bakken Well -- January 25, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs48157187190204

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 28298, 2,112, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-14H, 32 stages, 4.8 million lbs;  Four Bears, 4 sections, t8/15; cum 126K 12/15; off-line all of January, 2016;
  • 31207, dry, EOG, Van Hook 44-3626H, Parshall, casing collapsed while drilling; well plugged;
Five (5) new permits --
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
Twenty-two (22) permits renewed, including:
  • HRC, 13, all Fort Berthold  permits, Dunn County
  • CLR, 4, two Gronfur permits and two Gjorven Federal permits, all in Williams County
  • MRO, 3, a Juliet, Torrison, and a Brush well, all in Dunn County
  • Enerplus, 1, a Hidatsa Hills permit, Dunn County
  • BR, 1, a Merton permit, McKenzie County
Nine (9) producing wells completed:
  • 27686, 1,984, Oasis, Loga 5601 11-26 7B, Tyrone, t2/15; cum --
  • 29780, 745, Abraxas, Ravin 8H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 5K 11/15;
  • 30497, 661, CLR, Burr Federal 13-26H, Sanish, t1/16; cum --
  • 30938, 2,445, BR, CCU Bison Point 24-34MBH, Corral Creek, t1/16; cum --
  • 30940, 2,405, BR, CCU Bison Point 34-34MBH, Corral Creek, t12/15; cum --
  • 31175, 359, CLR, Jefferson 8-17H1, Crazy Man Creek, t12/15; cum --
  • 31177, 329, CLR, Jefferson 10-17H1, Crazy Man Creek, t12/15; cum --
  • 31389, 131, Denbury Onshore, CHSU ML13-09SH, Cedar Hills, a South Red River B well. TVD of 8,954 feet; two laterals were drilled, parallel to each other; the south lateral was 6,402 feet long drilled toward the southwest, ending in SESW section 17. A north lateral was 8,366 feet long, also drilled toward the southwest, ending in SESE section 18; low to moderately high background gas throughout ranging from 100 to 1,400 units; connection gases as high as 3,500 units; this field is unitized, so spacing is not an issue; t9/15; cum 12K 11/15;
  • 31595, 561, CLR, Jefferson 9X-17H, Crazy Man Creek, t12/15; cum --
There wee three well name changes, only two of which interested me:
  • 29203, Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P., was Hansen 18-19RD, now Hansen 18-19-1H RD, Mountrail County,
  • 29204, Lime Rock Resources III-A, L.P., was Sandy 18-19-1H RD, now Sandy 18-19-1H RD, Mountrail County

28298, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-14H, Four Bears:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Monday, January 25, 2016 -- A Quiet Monday

More bad news for Russia. Tweeting now: Greece to buy 25% of crude oil imports from Iran under Hellenic supply deal.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs48157187190204

A Study In Blue On White .. and a bit on the table, Sophia, 2016

Monday, January 25, 2016 -- And The Beat Goes On; McDonalds -- Reason #24 Why I Love To Blog

From Seeking Alpha:
  • California regulators have ordered SoCal Gas to permanently close and seal the natural gas storage well in Aliso Canyon that has been leaking since October.
  • The Sempra Energy  subsidiary also is ordered to fund an independent health study for residents of the Porter Ranch community as well as inspect all 115 wells at the Aliso Canyon storage facility to prevent any future gas leaks.
  • Critics are angry that the regulatory authority did not order all the wells at the Aliso Canyon storage site closed down; the "failure to put Californians' livelihoods first is shameful, and Gov. Brown should intervene swiftly," says Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune.

This is really cool. Back on October 31, 2015, I had a long post on McDonaldsWhy I Started Going To McDonald's Instead Of Starbucks For My Coffee. This is only part of what I wrote:
Two seniors, grandparents, no doubt, have just sat down across from me in McDonald's with their grandson (no doubt), who appears to be about 12 years old. They have all ordered a pancake and sausage breakfast.

When I came in, a bit after 11:00 a.m., I also ordered off the breakfast menu. Very interesting.

Saturday mornings in north Texas belong to "other" breakfast restaurants, but we seldom go any more: the lines are way too long, and the waits are upwards of 90 minutes. Yes, the Texas breakfasts are that good. But now McDonald's has added a new wrinkle.

Something tells me that we will be reading articles at the end of this business quarter about the decision made by McDonald's to offer breakfast all day long.

It's very possible someone is going to look like a genius.
Now, today, McDonald's reports earnings that greatly exceeded expectations and there are articles everywhere that the move to their all-day breakfast is responsible for the resurgence of this franchise. Just one more reason why I love to blog. This was posted earlier this morning:

Monday, January 25, 2016: Measuring Snow In A Blizzard Is Tough Thing To Do -- Senior Weather Observer At Reagan National Airport, But We Know The Earth Will Be One Degree Warmer In 100 Years; The Science Is Settled On That One

Active rigs:

Active Rigs47157187190204

RBN Energy: Why The Recent Crude Price Collapse Was Unusually Severe --
On Friday (January 22, 2016) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices on the CME/NYMEX futures exchange closed up $2.66/Bbl – the second day of a recovery from their 28% plunge during the first 20 days of 2016.
The jury is still out on whether the recovery will be sustained.
There was a similar (though less pronounced) price decline a year ago in January 2015 that did not last very long at the time. But in comparison the price destruction during this month’s collapse was unusually severe - not just because we saw prices under $30/Bbl for the first time since 2003. Today we explain why the extent of the price destruction along the forward curve this time suggests that last week’s recovery may be short lived.
Stories to come back to later:
"Measuring snow in a blizzard is a tough thing to do."
Especially when you lose the yardstick. 

This story was posted by numerous outlets prior to the blizzard: Soldiers Continue Guarding Tomb of the Unknown Soldier Despite Blizzard.
A little snow isn’t going to stop them! The 3rd U.S. Infantry Regiment’s Old Guard will continue guarding the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier despite historic blizzard conditions on the East Coast.
The Old Guard has watched over the tomb at Arlington National Cemetery in Washington, D.C. 24 hours a day, 365 days a year since 1948.
The cemetery will be closed to visitors as Winter Storm Jonas pummels the area.
“These guys will be out in the snow, no matter what,” Major Russell Fox, a spokesperson for the Old Guard, told ABC News. “They love what they’re doing and they’re dedicated.”
Meanwhile, over at Reagan National airport, they "lost" the measuring stick to which tracks snow accumulation. From the linked story above:
On Sunday, Mark Richards, the senior weather observer at National, stood by the accuracy of the reading, saying his team did the best it could under tough conditions.
"Everyone has to understand that measuring snow in a blizzard is a tough thing to do," Richards said. "We would like it to be as accurate as possible," he said. "But it's an inexact science."
However, Bob Leffler, a retired NWS climatologist told the Post that the loss of the snow board may have resulted in Reagan National's observers underreporting the true total amount of snowfall by between 10 and 20 percent, which would make the true total between 19.5 inches and 21.4 inches.
Yes, I suppose when one loses the yardstick, it qualifies as an inexact science. Maybe for the next storm they will have the 3rd US Infantry Regiment "guard" the snowboard.