Saturday, March 7, 2020

From "Breaking News" -- Moments Ago -- March 7, 2020

By the way, note: he is using a teleprompter. 

Wow, I hope Trump agrees to a dozen debates with this clown.

This video, by the way, is now appearing on any number of Twitter accounts. It's being re-tweeted faster than new coronavirus cases are being reported.

I can't wait to see this made into a slick Hollywood ad -- hopefully it will be played ad nauseum on late night television. In fact, maybe this is the only ad President Trump's re-election campaign will need to run.

I'm going to bed. Good luck to everyone. 

MRO's Doll USA Well Just Went Over One-Half Million Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- March 7, 2020

This well has just gone over the 500K-bbl cumulative crude oil threshold:
  • 29211, 2,929, MRO, Doll USA12-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 1/20
It sits on a four-well pad; all the wells are doing similarly well but to a lesser extent.

In addition, there is an adjoining 5-well pad that is now being drilled, with one rig on site.

Flashback: By 2015 There Could Be A Huge Crude Oil Shortage -- DOE -- March 7, 2020

This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it again.

Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.

"... as soon as 2012, total world oil production [would] begin to decline, and .... there could be a 10-million-bbl/day shortage by 2015."

What a bunch of idiots. And to think they were the smartest and the brightest.

Interestingly, the second link in that screenshot takes you to the Russian Times and the story is still "up."

Just think, if Bernie is elected president, the Russian Times will likely be the new "government" newspaper. LOL.

XTO With Nine More Alkali Creek Wells On Confidential Status -- March 7, 2020

XTO with nine more wells in Alkali Creek. In graphics below:
  • 36091, conf, Krieger 42X-17DXA, 33-061-04414, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36092, conf, Krieger 42X-17X, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36093, conf, Krieger 42X-17C, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 18169, IA/836, Krieger 42X-17, Alkali Creek, t12/09; cum 146K 1/19; came off line 1/19;
  • 36094, conf, Krieger 42X-17G, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;

  • 37223, conf, Kulczyk 43X-17EXH, Alkali Creek, 33-061-04643, t--; cum --;
  • 37224, conf, Kulczyk 43X-17F, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 37225, conf, Kulczyk 43X-17AXB, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 24711, 1,322, Kulczyk 43X-17B, Alkali Creek, t6/13; cum 235K 1/20;
  • 37226, conf, Kulczyk 43X-17FXG2, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --; a Three Forks well?
  • 24712, 1,572, Kulczyk 43X-17A, Alkali Creek, t6/13; cum 229K 1/20;
FracFocus: new wells, no frack data;

The graphics:

Hess With Seven New Wells In Alkali Creek Oil Field -- DRL Status -- March 7, 2020

I count sixteen producing horizontal wells in these two sections, sections 15/22 - 154-94:

Now, I see a pad with seven more wells on loc/drl status, but these wells will go to the north, into sections 3/10-154-94, see graphic below:
  • 37067, loc, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-10, Alkali Creek,
  • 37066, loc, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-9, Alkali Creek,
  • 37065, drl, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-8, Alkali Creek,
  • 37064, drl, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-7, Alkali Creek,
  • 37063, drl, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-6, Alkali Creek,
  • 37062, drl, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-5, Alkali Creek,
  • 37061, drl, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-4, Alkali Creek, 
File report/permit for #37064:
  • 1280-acre drilling unit;sections 3/10-154-94
The graphic:

About two miles to the west of these wells are the XTO Krieger / Kulczyk wells.

Practically A Wildcat -- CLR's Xavier Well In St Demetrius -- March 7, 2020

The well:
  • 37247, conf, CLR, Xavier 3-10H, St Demetrius, t--; cum -- ;
The other well sited in that section:
  • 16100, 255, CLR, Xavier 1-10H, St Demetrius, t5/06; cum 143K 1/20;
The graphic:

An Enerplus Henry Bad Gun Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Cumulative Crude Oil -- March 7, 2020

This well has just gone over 500K:
  • 18752, 2,194, Enerplus, Henry Bad Gun 17A-20-1H, Moccasin Creek, t7/10; cum 503K 1/20;
Will We See $1.50 Gasoline?

Link here

President Obama's core competencies:
  • appearing presidential
  • killing pipelines
  • explaining drilling to Americans

Enerplus "Greek God" Pad Now Reporting -- March 7, 2020

Enerplus' "Greek God" pad updated: new wells are now reporting. Best of the bunch:
  • 34838, 1,123, Enerplus, Hera 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 191K 1/20; 28 stages; 8.2 million lbs; fracked 5/15/19- 5/27/19; 6.7 million gallons of water; 86.7% water by mass; 0.03071 petroleum distillates;
Full production to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Week 10: March 1, 2020 -- March 7, 2020

Best graphic of the week, 4.7 miles, $4.8 million:

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
Bakken 101:
Favorite post of the week:

U.S. Net Petroleum Exports Hit Highest Ever In February -- EIA; Saudi Royals Detained On Twitter -- March 7, 2020

From the EIA:

Bernie: let's kill the US oil sector. By the way, that's exactly what Russia wants to do. Coincidental? I think not. Wow, talk about collusion. And delusion.

Biden: WTF just happened?

This is what just happened: The United States was a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products last month, with the four-week average net imports at a negative 907,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the last week of February, the lowest ‘imports’ level in EIA data dating back to 1973, according to EIA’s weekly data on net imports of crude oil and petroleum products.

Most ludicrous comment by EIA which the agency continues to iterate: despite the US, as a whole, being a net exporter, most regions of the US are still net importers of oil. California, Florida, Arkansas, and Idaho are huge importers of oil. Just saying.

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves

News item: Prince MBS detained three more high-profile princes this past week. Just saying. Occurred about the same time the OPEC+ meeting dissolved into chaos with Saudi losing bigly.

Link here.

And we all thought ZeroHedge being permanently banned from Twitter was bad. It could be worse. I was completely unaware that one could be detained by Twitter. OMG! It's worse than I thought!

The Daily Note -- Saturday, March 7, 2020

Updates Throughout The Day

6:49 p.m. Central Time: Italy plans large-scale lockdown in country's north to fight coronavirus. Quarantine, if approved, would ban movement into/out of northern provinces, including Milan, Venice, and Parma. Italy probably should have done this a week ago. A little late now. Infected most of the EU. Lombardy is Italy's major industrial region; would wreak havoc on Italy's fragile economy. I believe Italy may be the second largest economy, after Germany, in the EU. 

11:41 a.m. Central Time: my hunch -- sometime after the students return from spring break, all schools will be closed for two weeks. 

11:31 a.m. Central Time: OMG! Italy records more than 1,200 new cases. That's 12x more than China. A local north Texas high school did not cancel their student trip to Italy. Almost criminal if they bring coronavirus back to the DFW area. Italy remains out of control. Earlier, I posted that northern Italy where the cases are centered, has a disproportionate number of elderly. In Italy, deaths by age group (all deaths):
  • Percentage of deaths by age group:
    • 90+ years old: 6% of deaths
    • 80 - 89 years old: 42% of deaths
    • 70 - 79 years old: 35% of deaths
    • 60 - 69 years old: 16% of deaths

Original Post

I forgot to post the usual "active rigs" data yesterday. A Freudian slip, no doubt. Or maybe I've caught "Joe Biden" disease. It's a not-uncommon malady among the elderly.



So, here it is.

Active Rigs5565604435

I've been waiting to post that the number of rigs is at a 5-year high but I might have to wait a bit longer.

I'm not watching the market, haven't read the WSJ in weeks, so what I know about non-corona-virus stuff and non-Bakken stuff is about nil. In fact, I was completely unaware of the 10% drop in WTI until I finally got bored and had to read the on-line edition of the WSJ.

Wow, a lot has happened in the past few weeks.


Cable News

From a source:
Fox News’ town hall with President Trump on Thursday was the most-watched election town hall in cable news history, according to early Nielsen media research.
.... averaged 4.2 million viewers ... The record-setting town hall dominated cable news, topping MSNBC’s 1.4 million viewers and CNN’s 1 million viewers combined.
Fox News also beat CNN and MSNBC combined in the key news demographic of adults age 25-54, averaging 744,000 during the town hall.
I assume Chris "Hardball" Matthews was watching from an undisclosed location in voluntary quarantine.


Just to be clear: the chance of a brokered convention -- 5%. The chance that Biden wins the nomination on the first vote: 75%. The chance that the DNC convention goes into a third round of voting: 0%. To be clear: Biden has the nomination sewn up -- either on the first ballot or the second ballot when the super-delegates choose the nominee.

California won't have final results / final delegate distribution until at least April 10, 2020. We may know Iowa's final numbers before we know California's final numbers.

Super-duper Tuesday this next week includes North Dakota, I believe. Let's check. Yup. 14 delegates. Michigan and Washington state back in play now that Pocahontas has dropped out.

So, who does Biden select as his running mate?

Hillary: re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating.

I was most disappointed that the Schumer story has no legs. The mainstream media is avoiding this one like the plague. But it's out there. Lurking.

Even more disappointing: I haven't seen any follow-up regarding Brian William's math. No wonder MSNBC has experts to watch voting patterns. Brian would have no clue. Go over to YouTube .... search ... Brian .... LOL .... first thing that pops up: Brian Williams math. This is what I was looking for: The Life of Brian.


I went to bed early last night so I also failed to report the daily coronavirus update. The numbers, of course, are inaccurate but it's the best we have. Taking them at face value, China is down to less than 100 new cases. That is absolutely phenomenal. In fact, this belies (is that a word; am I using it correctly) the insanity of all this.

The numbers are so skewed now from country to country that it's hard to make sense of the percentage changes on a daily basis. It's a global issue composed of a dozen regional stories. Data for today, March 7, 2020:
  • China: down to 99 new cases; 28 new deaths; that number won't change today. China reports once every day, early in the day (central standard time)
  • South Korea: still running about 450 new cases days; 448 today; 48 / 7,041 = 0.7% fatality rate;
  • EU: overall, pretty bad; and vast majority of cases can be traced back to Italy
  • France: looks to be another hot spot -- 220 new cases in France yesterday; it would be interesting to know geographical area impacted in France. Southeastern France extends in ground zero in Italy. That's all the same region for all practical purposes.
  • Iran: out of control; another 1,076 cases; 21 new deaths
  • Italy: pending, could see as many as 1,000 new cases; there were 778 new cases reported yesterday; astounding; 197 / 4,636 = 4.3% fatality rate; something a reader pointed out to me -- note the demographics of northern Italy -- an elderly population for the most part; and so it goes
Think about -- China with a billion people, with ground zero in their own country, and is now reporting less than a hundred new cases, while South Korea with a fraction of China's population is now reporting five times as many new cases each day. 

I"m fascinated by that. I've mentioned before that I'm fascinated by the public health angle with regard to coronavirus. Case studies:
  • Diamond Princess: closed, captive population of mostly elderly folks from all over the world;
  • China: closed society; ground zero;
  • South Korea: open society; most modern country in the world (arguable but certainly among the top ten);
  • Italy: is this a regional story -- northern Italy?
But now we have the best case study in front of  us: the EU --
  • if one word defines the EU for me, it's the word "bureaucracy"  
  • it will be hard to find EU statistics (there's a reason for that, I assume), so we might have to pick a couple of representative countries. Let's pick France and Germany. The UK will have its own unique issues.
    • France: 9 deaths (near Italy, one wonders); no new cases today; 653 total cases; 1.4%; a whole lot better than the US; 17 / 335 = 5%
    • Germany: no deaths; 717 total cases; 47 new cases today; with no deaths, a fatality rate of .... drum roll ... zero;
One last note: I was surprised, very, very surprised to see the growth factor decline yesterday. I don't expect that to continue once the US starts mass testing, and the EU and UK start reporting ever higher numbers.

US Seasonal Flu

Source: CDC

Week 9, ending February 29, 2020 -- unlike Coronavirus in which we get data in real-time, data for seasonal flu lags at least a week and the numbers are much more vague.

Data points:

  • US population: 330 million
  • seasonal flu case so far this season: 34 million (at least)
  • deaths so far this season (began October, 2019): 20,000
  • children: record number of deaths this seasonal flu season with 136 deaths, up from 125 previous week
  • cumulative hospitalizations: 57.9/100,000 = 200,000 hospitalizations
  • percentage of US deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza: 6.9%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%
  • 11 influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported this week, brining this season's ttal to 136 
  • seasonal flu vaccine is less than 45% effective

A war and a new refugee crisis. Link here

The Market

Maybe more on this later. I can't say a thing because I haven't followed the market at all the past two weeks. The only thing I'm doing consistently is checking my cash on a daily basis (dividends) and buying more shares in non-energy companies.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


This a.m. I was talking to another individual who loved Amazon. I mentioned that I love Echo/Alexa. He said he did, too, until his wife threw it out in the garbage when when she heard that Amazon/Echo/Alexa was listening into your conversations.

I mentioned that one could turn off that function by tapping the "red button." He said he knew that now, but not then. Hasn't changed a thing. No Echo/Alexa in that household. LOL.

The presidential candidate who can best tap into the paranoia will win the race.