Saturday, November 21, 2015

North Dakota's Shortfall Grows -- November 21, 2015

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
North Dakota’s tax revenues fell short of projections by nearly $49 million in October, marking the third consecutive month of lower-than-expected collections and prompting the state budget office to discuss updating the forecast given to lawmakers in March.
Overall tax revenues are $112 million, or 7.5 percent, less than projected for the first four months of the 2015-17 biennium that began July 1.
Depressed crude oil prices and farm commodity prices continue to put a major dent in sales tax collections, which came in about $38 million, or 31 percent, below forecast in October, after being down $23 million in September and $44 million in August.
Back on September 23, 2015, we were first alerted to this.

And This Is The Problem With Peak Oil -- November 21, 2015

This is the problem with "peak oil."

Is it really "peak oil" when operators quit drilling for oil because there is so much oil floating on the high seas they can't sell it all?

This was actually posted by "Peak Oil Barrel."

In this article, John Kemp notes:
There are roughly 650 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) plying the seas with a total carrying capacity of around 1.3 billion barrels of crude oil. If roughly half are filled with crude, while the other half are in ballast on the return journey, that would imply another 650 million barrels of crude in transit.
Hundreds of millions more barrels of crude are in transit in smaller Suezmax and Aframax vessels plus millions of barrels of refined fuels in transit by tanker.
Peak Oil? I hardly think so.

Happy Birthday To You, Mr Woodrow Star; It's Only Make Believe -- November 21, 2015

Updates

June 18, 2019: the well is off-line.

November 15, 2018: the Woodrow Star "A" (#1987) must be someone's pet project. After being off-line most of 2018 and looking like we were coming to the end, all of sudden, production perked up:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-2018304584523388860481
SANISH8-2018314082323158630475
SANISH7-2018314134503956960296
SANISH6-20182744621627235100
SANISH5-201896201253300
SANISH4-20181888017014100
SANISH3-2018625201054800
SANISH2-20180000000
SANISH1-20180000000
SANISH12-20170000000
SANISH11-20170000000
SANISH10-2017234145830186082
SANISH9-2017306654491008120580

July 10, 2018: "they've" managed to squeeze another two years out of this well! Cumulative is now 1,103,122 bbls; producing only a few days each month; producing less than a 100 bbls/month. Sixty years old.

March 11, 2016: a reader sent me some photographs of Woodrow Star "A" 1 this past week. I've also updated the production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH12-2016319298747811630918
SANISH11-2016309046778011300898
SANISH10-2016311002104678125201004
SANISH9-2016298698967011250897
SANISH8-201631973109813312230975
SANISH7-20163110078967212280982
SANISH6-2016301007108693125801018
SANISH5-2016319618905812280980
SANISH4-201630995110962122709


 
November 22, 2015: this area brought in a record BLM bid back in 2013.

November 22, 2015: a reader provided a most interesting backstory to the Woodrow Star "A" well -- the original note is in the comment section below, but I brought it up here so that it can be searched by Google, for example:
Here is some more history on the Woodrow Starr wells. The original well at this location was drilled in 1953 by Pan American. It was targeted to test the Devonian and Silurian formations but these proved to be dry.
Pan American did find good oil shows in an unnamed zone at the top of the Devonian. They cased the well and it flowed oil from this section which they called the "Sanish Sand".
Later this zone became known as the Bakken.
Between 1953 and 1958 the Woodrow Starr #1 produced 279,254 barrels of oil (and just 98 bbls of water). Then casing collapsed in the well so Pan American drilled a replacement well just 300 feet to the north. These two wells have a combined production of 1.3 million barrels of oil and all from 20 to 30 feet vertical section.
They perforated both what we now know as the Middle Bakken and top bench of the Three Forks. There is obviously natural fractures in this area with the northwest/southeast trending Antelope Fault line just east of these two wells. Also, note that the recently permitted EOG 32 well spacing unit is just a short distance to the west of the Starr wells.
The spelling of the "last name" of the well is of interest. The first well was #341, Woodrow Starr 1 (with two "r's").  Except on a couple of documents in the file report, Star/Starr is generally spelled Star (with one "r"). A Google search of the internet suggests the correct spelling is with one "r."

The second well, 300 to the north was #1987, Woodrow Star "A" 1.

November 22, 2015: on November 3, 2015, I posted several graphics with the 30+ EOG permits/wells in the area. In those graphics, I did not post where these EOG permits/wells were in relationship to the "original" Woodrow Star(r) wells. This graphic shows their relationship:


The west-east separation of 2.4 miles is shown in the graphic.

Original Post
 
This million-barrel well recently celebrated its 57th birthday:
  • 1987, 150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.099568 million bbls 5/17;
It is a vertical well in Antelope oil field.

It was spud in August, 1958, before many of my readers were born. It was tested in October, 1958, and produced 1,400 bbls in the first six days of production. It produced close to 6,000 bbls / month in the early months, but then declined to 2,000 to 3,000 bbls monthly through the early 1970s. It had some rough periods in the late 1970's and then again from 1994 - 2014. But this year, it's back up to about 1,000 bbls per month, as much as three times as much oil compared to many years between 1994 and 2014.

It had record production in July 1964, producing 7,500 bbls of oil that month. Early on it produced no water and no gas, but is now producing a very small amount of water - very small amount, and a bit of gas.

In 1995, the operator "elected to designate this well as a stripper well."

I assume Harold Hamm sent a birthday card to Mr Woodrow Star "A" wishing the well another 57 great years of production.

Production for the past year:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-201530103413612124901009
SANISH8-2015319334322141801201
SANISH7-2015319541118181031230576
SANISH6-2015298321109793069721
SANISH5-201531111311122311098610
SANISH4-201530896912138066080
SANISH3-2015311069887309066730
SANISH2-201525788713736564680
SANISH1-201531118111661710297810
SANISH12-201431814919226984570
SANISH11-201430762677177655250
SANISH10-2014316878712238806320
SANISH9-201430681696337725330

Production in calendar year, 2009:

SANISH12-20090000000
SANISH11-20090000000
SANISH10-20095200000
SANISH9-200944400330
SANISH8-20090000000
SANISH7-20091200000
SANISH6-200912200660
SANISH5-20091316810220
SANISH4-20093100224550
SANISH3-20090000330
SANISH2-20090000000
SANISH1-200912017000

Production in its first year, 1958 - 1959:

SANISH10-1959122334010000
SANISH9-1959263540012000
SANISH8-1959172488010000
SANISH7-1959162431012000
SANISH6-195928382307000
SANISH5-195917328006000
SANISH4-195927386306000
SANISH3-195928466406000
SANISH2-195924365105000
SANISH1-195928555506000
SANISH12-195828552304000
SANISH11-195822511804000
SANISH10-19586138200000

In November, 1958, the #1 song in America: "It's Only Make Believe," Conway Twitty. From wiki:
"It's Only Make Believe" is a song written by Jack Nance and American country music artist Conway Twitty, and produced by MGM Records' Jim Vienneau, released by Twitty as a single in July 1958.
The single topped both U.S. and the UK Singles Chart, and was Twitty's only number-one single on the pop charts of either country.
On a segment of Pop Goes The Country, Twitty states the single was a hit in 22 different countries and sold over 8 million copies.
It is believed that Twitty wrote his part of the song while sitting on a fire escape outside his hotel room, to escape the summer heat, in Hamilton, Ontario. Twitty had come to Canada at the request of another American singer, Rompin' Ronnie Hawkins, due to Hawkins saying to Twitty that Canada was the 'promised land' for music.
It's Only Make Believe, Conway Twitty

So incredibly perfect on so many levels to accompany this post.

What I learned from comments at YouTube regarding this song and Mr Conway Twitty:
  • this song has a full two octave range which is what opera singers need...and Conway nailed every note
  • yet another talent from the poor shacks of the Arkansas Delta...picking cotton and singing is all they had to do...J.R. Cash, Levon, Helm, Glen Campbell, Al Green, Charlie Rich, and on and on
  • tell me this ain't Elvis
  • 1958: when the chrome was thick and the women were straight
  • the best hair of all time
  • Conway went on to found Twitter
  • little known facts:  Charted #17 in Zimbabwe, #8 in Gondwana, and even more impressively, on the dark side of the moon it remains in the top 100 to this day
  • Conway died at the age of 59 -- about the same age as the Woodrow Star well is now -- which is still going strong

Some Housekeeping Regarding Miscellaneous Wells -- November 21, 2015

Some housekeeping.

EOG advised the state that it was going to plug and abandon four Parshall oil field wells. The explanation:
  • Parshall 157-2127H, EOG is no longer planning to drill this Three Forks well due to recent test results on TF wells in the Parshall field;
  • Fertile 66-0410H, dropped from EOG drilling plans to accommodate larger inner-well spacing;
  • 29822, dry, Fertile 75-0905H, dropped from EOG drilling plans to accommodate larger inner-well spacing;
  • 31085, dry, Fertile 78-0905H, dropped from EOG drilling plans to accommodate larger inner-well spacing;
*************************
Monster Wells

These three wells were added to the list of "monster wells" in the Williston Basin. Note that these three wells have gone over the half-million bbl threshold in less than two years:
  • 25646, 607, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, 57 stages, 17.1 million lbs, t11/13; cum 557K 9/15;
  • 25647, 110, EOG, Wayzetta 31-3230H, 54 stages, 16.3 million lbs, t10/13; cum 526K 9/15; 
  • 26028, 1,142, EOG, Wayzetta 41-2117H, 47 stages, 18.7 million lbs , t12/13; cum 584K 9/15; 
Note the amount of proppant used by EOG in these wells. For newbies, when the Bakken boom began, 1 million lbs of proppant was the "norm." BEXP (not Statoil) raised the bar early on by using 4 million lbs of proppant. When operator started using upwards of 10 million lbs about a year ago or so, it seemed more than incredible, now EOG is using nearly 20 million lbs in a single well. And it doesn't even get a headline in the local newspapers. Ho-hum.

I track "monster wells" here.

****************************
Update On A Record Setting Well
  • 27520, 6,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFH, TF1, Twin Valley, up to 9,900 gas units; 97 stages; 4.2 million lbs sand/ceramic; t10/14; cum 418K 9/15; 
This well had some routine pad work done in July, 2015. The well was not re-worked; only taken off-line for awhile. Note production profile:  

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2015111239113521269130454303750
BAKKEN8-20155787763701733132171313433
BAKKEN7-2015001840000
BAKKEN6-201528216772196814405792957690190
BAKKEN5-20152728754291523567130024129332640
BAKKEN4-20153036976370844012146518145911547
BAKKEN3-20153146708462864808181103180141900
BAKKEN2-201528468814742041871461031437972250
BAKKEN1-2015315243052198409314190112851613323
BAKKEN12-201431521035190436641239711151658744
BAKKEN11-201430508235126841551120694242869581
BAKKEN10-20143161727606151221311729111381105860
BAKKEN9-2014270004400

********************************
Two Big Wells Back On-Line

This well was taken off-line earlier this year, and is now back on line. A survey report is dated September, 2015, but I do not the reason this well was taken off-line last spring.
  • 26990, 3,102, Enerplus, Hognose 152-94-18B-19H-TF, Sanish, specifically Three Forks 2nd bench, three laterals; 60 days (533 hours) drilling, 41 stages; 9.7 million lbs sand; t4/14; cum 387K 9/15;
Note production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-2015301441914248686628026261170
SANISH8-2015301718217155820532645274132980
SANISH7-20153119321196541443136709292314945
SANISH6-201515912783401123457591
SANISH5-2015107702211290
SANISH4-2015221642216536349033472314400
SANISH3-2015222004519782363434286318720
SANISH2-201510410000
SANISH1-2015181250112540208618814166110
SANISH12-201411507061321839684412994642
SANISH11-2014302281322932480730798327027528
SANISH10-2014313078231256611249251049251
SANISH9-2014302847627871463345562045562
SANISH8-2014313360033524549753760053760
SANISH7-2014313278533397537119673019673
SANISH6-2014272904227347499617425017425
SANISH5-20143053840542471084532304032304
SANISH4-20142250409496642818030245030245

The sister well was also taken off-line about that time. A sundry report says that two temporary fresh water tanks were placed ont eh Snakes Pad location in April, 2015, time frame; also a request to place temporary NGL units on the pad was submitted earlier; it appears these wells were taken off-line for general pad-associated work:
  • 26737, 3,374, Enerplus, Ribbon 152-94-18B-19H, Sanish, again, much of the paperwork says "Bakken," and the target was clearly the middle Bakken (middle Bakken "C") but the scout ticket says the Sanish pool; 42 days (316 hours) of drilling; 42 stages; 10.0 million lbs sand; t4/14; cum 448K 9/15;
Note production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-2015261151012245413723997224460
SANISH8-2015301520515088471128889241092757
SANISH7-2015291975319293704937531286946346
SANISH6-20152924054241268561457032720915565
SANISH5-20151606626391149821196
SANISH4-2015301771418005475536195339510
SANISH3-2015251708917258403629289271750
SANISH2-2015262100920759474035182326400
SANISH1-2015221126611551228318818148920
SANISH12-2014184169882914392623410
SANISH11-2014302566025970645539772367836094
SANISH10-2014313217932299707551486051486
SANISH9-2014303355133297660053682053682
SANISH8-2014313980539850778763688063688
SANISH7-2014313708437018741322253022253
SANISH6-2014283110730020623618664018664
SANISH5-20143154002538621112132401032401
SANISH4-20142356416559093132533850033850