Thursday, November 16, 2017

Five New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed; Three Permits Canceled -- November 16, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553863186183

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Missouri River
  • Field: McGregory Buttes (Dunn)
    Commentary: McGregory is an incredibly good field; Missouri River has permits for a 5-well pad in NENW 14-148-94
Ten permits renewed:
  • BR (4): two Pacific Express and two Atlantic Express permits, all in Dunn County
  • EOG (3): three Austin permits in Mountrail County
  • BR (2): a Mathistad permit and a Croff permit, both in McKenzie County
  • WPX: an Elm permit in Dunn County
Three permits canceled:
  • Petro Harvester: three STC1 permits in Burke County

Siemens To Cut 7,000 Jobs, Half Of Them In Germany -- The Market And Energy Page, Part 3, T+299 -- November 16, 2017

GE? Nope, Siemens: Right, wrong, or indifferent, I associate Siemens with German wind energy. Today, Siemens announces a cut of 7,000 jobs, half of them in Germany. From The Financial Times:
Siemens on Thursday said it will cut 6,900 jobs as the large German industrial company responds to “unprecedented” change in the power generation market. 
The company unveiled the plans as part of a “consolidation” that will affect three power-related divisions, and aims to “increase capacity utilisation at production facilities, drive efficiency and enhance expertise by bundling resources.” 
“The power generation industry is experiencing disruption of unprecedented scope and speed,” said Lisa Davis, member of the managing board of Siemens.
If Siemens is still involved with energy (and I don't know if they are or not), the company did a disservice to all by not mentioning the real reason for their challenges.

Saudi Aramco just lost its biggest investor. No comments necessary. From Bloomberg:
Selling the world’s largest initial public offering wasn’t going to be easy. For Saudi Arabia, the mission just got a lot more complicated: the Aramco IPO won’t have the support of the biggest equity investor.

Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund has proposed dumping all its oil and gas stocks -- roughly $35 billion -- to diversify away from energy. The Nordic nation is one of the world’s top oil producers and its fund invests heavily in energy, owning large chunks of Big Oil as well as stakes in major state-controlled companies including Petrobras of Brazil and Sinopec of China.

The exit, if backed by the government, will create two problems for the Saudis. First, it eliminates a potential cornerstone investor either ahead of the IPO or during its book-building. With Riyadh hoping for a valuation of $2 trillion -- and raising $100 billion selling a 5 percent stake -- Aramco will need every investor it can get. Second, it’s likely to embolden those who view oil companies as potentially stranded assets that should be avoided. That, in turn, could reduce the appetite among Western pension funds to buy into the IPO.
The Grammar (Spelling?) Page

The Mobile Phone Data Scam 

My current ******** plan (for two cell phones) is $59/month before taxes and fees.

The other day I received an e-mail "confirming" that I had signed up for an unlimited data plan. The new price would be $129/month before taxes and fees.

I had never put in a request to "upgrade."

I immediately called ************** and told them that it appeared my account had been hacked. Of course, I knew it had not been hacked, but by suggesting that, I knew my call would be immediately addressed by a "human" with some "managerial" experience.

The ************ representative immediately reassured me that my account had not been hacked but could not explain how my account had been "upgraded." [Of course, we both knew was going on.]

How he/she knew immediately that my account had not been hacked was beyond me. He/she reassured me throughout the ensuing 15-minute conversation that my account was safe and secure and I had nothing to worry about.

Continuing the fun, I suggested that the only way my account could have been upgraded or changed was if someone hacked into my account. Again, I was assured that could not have happened (again, how the representative would know that is beyond me -- of course he/she was lying).

I knew things were "not kosher" when the representative did not even feign saying he/she would look for an e-mail or some other proof that I had requested an upgrade. The representative obviously knew such proof did not exist. [My hunch, based on how my questions were so quickly answered, suggests that this was not uncommon -- generally call centers have a 3-ring binder (virtual or real) that the representative can turn to to find out how to resolve problems / FAQs that customers have.]

The representative asked if I wanted to return to my original plan. Well, duh. Yes.

It was very clear that both of us knew what was going on. ***************** simply switched me to a higher-priced plan without asking and then sent me an "official" e-mail "confirming" that they had received my request for an "upgrade." I assume they were hoping I would not see the e-mail, or if I did see it, simply accept the "upgrade."

I continued the "fun" for several minutes, but it was obvious that both the representative and I knew what was going on. In fact, I said that directly, "we both know what is going on" but we'll leave it there. Just switch me back to my original plan.

I've been with *****************ever since I got my first cell phone (several decades ago) and even invested in *************** shares at one time. I sold ************* shares years ago.

It should go without saying that when I upgrade to a new cell phone, I will be switching carriers.

Probably *************.

The Market And Energy Page, Part 2, T+299 -- November 16, 2017

Saudi: it is being reported that Prince Salman will become king of Saudi Arabia as early as next week.
Until November 22nd:
The Sun continues to highlight your solar third house--a time of the year in which you are most likely to be a "busy bee".
Communications, short trips, errand-running, and general busy-ness feature now.
You could have a finger in many pies, so to speak, as your curiosity is piqued by a larger variety of things than usual.
Used well, this could be a period in which you come up with solutions to a number of problems. You are more inclined to take pride in your intellectual accomplishments and/or your ability to socialize and make connections.
From November 22nd forward:
With the Sun spotlighting your house of family and home, these areas are your instinctive focus during this period. Your family, home, property concerns, roots, and heritage come into focus and become a source of pride.
You are likely quite preoccupied with feelings of security and your inner experiences.
This is a time when you send down roots and seek a feeling of belonging. You could be thrust into a position of leadership on the home front.
Ego confrontations with family members are possible now, but the best way to handle this energy is to do your best to strengthen your relationship to your family and your home base.
This is a time to do what you can to build trust in your family life and a strong foundation within yourself, so that regardless of what you meet in the outside world over the next months, you have a secure place to return to. Besides spending more time tending to domestic affairs, the focus can be on cultivating and nourishing your inner foundations that support you and your growth. This is a time to collect yourself--to fill your well, so to speak.
So to speak.

I can't make this stuff up.

The Literary Page

Every time I come across the "best book ever," it seems, I find another book that becomes "the best book ever."

I've blogged about this book before: A New Literary History of America, edited by Greil Marcus and Werner Sollors, c. 2009, by the President and Fellows of Harvard College.

These are new essays, specifically written for this book. This is not an anthology of older essays. It has a slight "leftist" tilt but all-in-all, incredibly good. In fact, I prefer the slight "leftist" tilt rather than a centrist or "alt-right" view of US literature.

There are 119 essays (assuming I counted correctly). I have read less than a dozen of the essays, picking and choosing the ones I might find most interesting, or most relevant to that with which I am already most familiar. (That last sentence is the reason why we need to abolish the rule to "never end sentences with a preposition.)

It would be tedious and would take too long to list each of the 119 essays, so I will every 20th essay, starting with #1, #20, #40, and so on.

The essay is preceded by the year in which the particular item was written.
1507: The name "America" appears on a map.

1773: Phillis Wheatley

1826; 1927: Transnational Poetry

1851: Moby-Dick

1884: Mark Twain's hairball

1900: Henry Adams

1920, August 10: Mamie Smith's "Crazy Blues"

1930, October: Grant Wood's American Gothic

1940: "No way like the American way"

1952, April 12: Elia Kazan and the blacklist in Hollywood

1965, September 11: The Council on Interracial Books for Children

1995, Philip Roth

2008, November 4, Barack Obama (#119)
Along the way, some interesting observations or essays that caught my eye for some reason:
1692, The Salem witchcraft trials

1777, The Declaration of Independence

1796, Washington's farewell address

1801, Jefferson's first inaugural address
1846, late July, Henry David Thoreau

1851, Uncle Tom's Cabin

1865, March 4, Lincoln's second inaugural address

1875, The Winchester Rifle

1881, January 24, Henry James, Portrait of a Lady

1906, April 18, 5:14 a.m., The San Francisco Earthquake

1925, The Great Gatsby

1925, August 16, Dorothy Parker

1935, June 10, Alcoholics Anonymous

1943, Hemingway's paradise, Hemingway's prose

1945, August 6, 10:45 a.m., The atom bomb

1947, December 3, Tennessee Williams, essay by Camille Paglia

1951, The Catcher in the Rye

1955, December, Nabokov's Lolita

1957, Dr Seuss

1961, January 20, JFK's inaugural address and Catch-22

1970; 1972, Linda Lovelace

1982, A Boy's Own Story, essay by Sarah Shun-Lien Bynum

2005, August 29, Hurricane Katrina

2008, November 4, Barack Obama

The Political Page, T+299 -- November 16, 2017

I don't watch network nightly news. Let me know if any of the networks a) report this story; b) show this photograph. My hunch: if you are a sitting US senator, you get a pass.

It should be noted that this photograph was said to have been taken after the actress explicitly told him to never touch her again (paraphrasing) -- according to the actress, herself.

On Property

The founding fathers were truly geniuses. From: A Defense of the Constitutions of Government of the United States of America, 1787, John Adams.
The proposition of our author, then, should be reversed, and it should have been said, that they mind so much their own, that they never think enough of others.
Suppose a nation, rich and poor, high and low, ten millions in number, all assembled together; not more than one or two millions will have lands, houses, or any personal property; if we take into the account the women and children, or even if we leave them out of the question, a great majority of every nation is wholly destitute of property, except a small quantity of clothes, and a few trifles of other movables.
Would Mr. Nedham be responsible that, if all were to be decided by a vote of the majority, the eight or nine millions who have no property, would not think of usurping over the rights of the one or two millions who have?
Property is surely a right of mankind as really as liberty. Perhaps, at first, prejudice, habit, shame or fear, principle or religion, would restrain the poor from attacking the rich, and the idle from usurping on the industrious; but the time would not be long before courage and enterprise would come, and pretexts be invented by degrees, to countenance the majority in dividing all the property among them, or at least, in sharing it equally with its present possessors.
Debts would be abolished first; taxes laid heavy on the rich, and not at all on the others; and at last a downright equal division of every thing be demanded, and voted.
What would be the consequence of this? The idle, the vicious, the intemperate, would rush into the utmost extravagance of debauchery, sell and spend all their share, and then demand a new division of those who purchased from them.
The moment the idea is admitted into society, that property is not as sacred as the laws of God, and that there is not a force of law and public justice to protect it, anarchy and tyranny commence.
If “Thou shalt not covet,” and “Thou shalt not steal,” were not commandments of Heaven, they must be made inviolable precepts in every society, before it can be civilized or made free.
-- John Adams,  John Adams, A Defense of the Constitutions of Government of the United States of America, 1787
50% of US millennials do not understand this; they say they want to adopt the socialism of North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela.

The Market And Energy Page, T+299 -- November 16, 2017

The Market: the market has been down four of the past five days. One would assume many issues had a significant decline, suggesting it would be difficult for issues to hit a new 52-week high today. So, let's see, any new highs on the NYSE, when the market is up almost 200 points today? Yup, an astounding 88, including:
  • Dollar General; NRG; WMT
Saudi: All that talk about Saudi princes liquidating their positions in the US market? That may be accurage. From Bloomberg today:
Saudi Arabia’s market regulator has frozen the trading accounts of individuals being detained or investigated as part of the kingdom’s crackdown on alleged corruption, according to three people familiar with the matter.
The Capital Market Authority is asking brokerages to suspend the accounts of dozens of princes, billionaires and officials being held so they’re unable to buy or sell shares on the Tadawul stock exchange.
The kingdom last week said Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, or SAMA as the central bank is known, had frozen the bank accounts of individuals being investigated, but not those of the companies they own or manage. In Saudi Arabia, some are in talks with banks and asset managers to move money outside the country.
F-15s: I never get tired of looking at pictures like these. The F-15 was my primary a/c when assigned to Bitburg AB decades ago. From thedrive:

Below The Fold

DAPL operator nominated for API award. In the Williston Herald.

Update: won "Outstanding Achievement" --
Energy Transfer Partners — Outstanding Achievement, group, for construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline, a game changer for the Bakken oil and gas industry, that is helping Bakken crude get to the markets where it can get the best price. The pipeline has already eased the discount against Bakken crude by $2, bringing in more tax revenue for the state and more royalties for mineral rights owners. 

Wells To Watch When Two MRO Wells Come Off Confidential LIst Today -- November 16, 2017

With these two wells coming off confidential list today,
  • 33403, conf, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
  • 33400, conf, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, Bailey, no production data,
These are the wells to watch. One is off-line now, but in three to six months they will be back on line and then we will see new production data:
  • 16715, 463, MRO, Kevin Buehner 11-18H, Bailey, t10/107; cum 345K 9/17; API: 33-025-00644; cased hole, 560,800 lbs;
  • 16992, off-line/IA/149, MRO, Kevin Buehner 31-18H, Bailey, , t8/08; cum 165K 9/17; API: 33-025-00709, cased hole, 80,000 lbs (no typo -- 80,000 lbs)
The graphic:

If BP Is Happy, Everybody's Happy; First Time Unemployment Claims Surge -- November 16, 2017

EIA's gasoline demand graph:

Weekly first time unemployment claims, link here:
  • prior: 229,000
  • forecast: 232,000
  • actual: 239,000
  • 4-week moving average: 232,500
Wells reporting today:
  • 33403, SI/NC, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
  • 33400, SI/NC, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, Bailey, no production data,
  • 32978, SI/NC, BR, Dodge 3C TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
  • 32477, 530, Whiting, Buckman 34-9-2PH, Bell, Three Forks, 45 stages; 9.4 million lbs, t5/17; cum 37K 9/17;
UN in Williston: more than 200 students in "English Language" program in Williston's District 1 school system represent 27 languages. That's an increase of about seven languages from last year. More accurately, in Williston there are more than 27 languages spoken, but these 27 represent only students enrolled in the "English Language" program. Data points:
  • Creole is spoken at ever school except McVay Elementary
  • Tagalog at every school except Lewis and Clark, and Richard elementaries
  • Adult "English Language" classes are offered for free; a Title III grant
Bakken oil exports: Argus Media is reporting that CLR is set to export a second Bakken cargo.  Data points:
  • 430,000 bbls
  • January delivery to overseas markets
  • the transaction will take place at Cushing, OK
  • the Brent-WTI spread has widened to over $6/bbl in recent weeks from about $2/bbl earlier in the summer
  • the article does not post the Brent-Bakken spread but it is very, very narrow according to an early source (posted previously)
Big headline, little story: Oil & Gas Journal is reporting that Devon is reporting a 5,100 boe/d STACK well in Oklahoma.  The 30-day average of 4,600 boe/d is 65% oil. Net production will be more than 120,000 boe/d by yearend. Anyone following the Bakken can put this story in perspective. Operators in the Bakken are targeting 150,000 bopd in first six months. The article does not provide breakeven price in STACK; in North Dakota the breakeven price is $21/bbl (previously posted)

Oh-oh: Abu Dhabi to boost oil by 380,000 bopd.

BP lookin' good, from Reuters via Rigzone, story speaks volumes about boom and bust cycle of the oil sector. Remember, WTI is currently $55, holding steady; breakeven price in the Bakken is $21 statewide (previously reported):
BP Plc said on Wednesday it would begin a share buyback programme, making it the first major European energy company to resume buybacks since the 2014 price slump in a sign years of austerity have paid off.
The British oil company, which recently reported a doubling in third-quarter profit, said the buyback programme had been authorised for between Nov. 15 and the date of its 2018 annual general meeting, with the maximum number of shares not exceeding 1.96 billion.
Discord in paradise, from Bloomberg via Twitter:
The man overseeing western Europe’s biggest crude spigot is fighting back against the oil doubters.
Norway’s push into the Arctic, necessary to prolong the nation’s more than four decades of petroleum production, is running into a multi-pronged attack with claims that projects will be unprofitable and an unprecedented lawsuit targeting the government.
Market: Dow futures up 60 points.

GDP Now, latest forecast: 3.2% for 4Q17.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on November 15, down from 3.3 percent on November 9.
After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of real consumer spending growth remained 3.2 percent and the forecast of real residential investment growth declined from 5.0 percent to 4.2 percent.
Venezuela default, impact on markets. I don't think the writer or the expert did a very good job making the point, but the story is exactly right. If -- but it's not going to happen -- the global market suddenly loses Venezuela's 2 million bopd production, it would be a "big shock" to the system. But Saudi Arabia's "spare capacity" and CBR from Canadian oil fields would quickly fill the void. If Venezuela's oil production (or exports) cease completely, "we" will have bigger problems than energy. The humanitarian crisis will be, perhaps, the biggest humanitarian crisis in modern history in the western hemisphere. And Russia and China are poised to step in to "help." Russia already has. The UN will be completely ineffective, and the US is in no mood to help Venezuela. The US hardly has much interest in Puerto Rico, it seems.

Surprise, surprise: the three hoods admit to shoplifting and they do thank President Trump for getting them out of China. No links, story easily found.

Back To Business

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553863186183

RBN Energy: Permian crude oil shuttle pipelines and gathering systems provide destination flexibility.
Wide swings in the value of Permian crude oil in Midland, TX, the storage and distribution hub in Cushing, OK, and Gulf Coast points like Houston in recent months have only reinforced the importance of destination flexibility. The ability of Permian producers and shippers to access multiple takeaway pipelines and, with that, the market that will give them the highest possible price for their product, is being enhanced by the addition of new intra-basin shuttle pipelines, gathering systems and hybrid gather-and-shuttle networks. These new pipes are designed to help connect new wellheads across the Permian’s Midland and Delaware basins with two, three or even more takeaway pipelines, adding new robustness to the region’s infrastructure and enabling crude to flow to where it is most valued at any given time. Today, we discuss highlights of the Permian crude oil shuttle pipelines and gathering systems.
Permian crude oil production continues to rise, new production areas are coming online and producers and shippers know this: the surest way to get the top price for their crude is to be able to deliver their barrels to the market that’s paying the top price. That’s logical, of course, but it’s not always possible — a significant portion of Permian production can only flow to one takeaway pipeline and therefore only to wherever that pipe is headed.