Keystone Pipeline Shut Down — April 9, 2025

Locator: 48446KEYSTONE.

Update

Saturday, April 12, 2025: Keystone operator says pipeline will be open "at reduced rates" by Tuesday, April 15, 2025.

Original Post

Link here.

The Keystone Pipeline was shut down yesterday after it ruptured in North Dakota, halting the flow of millions of gallons of crude oil from Canada to the U.S. and raising concerns of potentially higher gasoline prices. 

South Bow, a liquid pipeline business that manages the pipeline, said it shut down the pipeline after control center leak detection systems detected a pressure drop in the system. The company estimated that 3,500 barrels of oil were released and said the spill was confined to an agricultural field in a rural area, about 60 miles (97 kilometers) southwest of Fargo. 

 “The affected segment has been isolated, and operations and containment resources have been mobilized to site,” the company said. “Our primary focus right now is the safety of onsite personnel and mitigating risk to the environment.”

Insight On The Demise Of The Keystone XL Project -- A Minority View? -- IEEFA -- July 31, 2024

Locator: 48279XL.

Link here.

IEEFA's bottom line: the pipeline was not necessary and not in the public interest, and in fact, the operator / developer did better in the long term, and, oh, by the way, Canadian resources were never that great to begin with. 

Pipeline Profiles -- Keystone Pipeline

Link here. 

This is the existing Keystone pipeline recently in the news because of a huge spill.

This is not the Keystone XL pipeline though my hunch is that this is confusing a lot of folks in Washington, DC, thinking Harold built the pipeline without a permit. LOL. 

The best "thing" about this link: it takes one to other great links; and, the graphics are great.

Pop Quiz -- The Pipeline Edition -- April 5, 2022

Quick, what was this story published?

a) The Babylon Bee
b) The Onion
c) WSJ
d) nowhere, I made it up

Link here. 

At the same time, White House officials say Mr. Biden has no interest in reviving the Keystone XL pipeline project. They say that it couldn’t be completed in time to address today’s shortfall and that the president is still committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels over the long term.

Canada could export some more oil via rail, according to analysts and others familiar with the situation, and it could also pump more oil by increasing pressure on existing lines or by installing larger pipelines along permitted routes.

$4.00 Gasoline And The Keystone XL -- December 29, 2021

It's pretty much a given that all credible analysts argue that unleaded, regular gasoline could average $4.00 / gallon next spring (2022). 

For those who understand the pricing of gasoline in this country, one can connect the dots back to 2005 when the Keystone XL was first publicly proposed. 

It's a complicated story, not easily explained to the American public.

But at the end of the day, all discussions about $4.00-gasoline circle back to the Keystone XL.

Killing The Keystone XL -- For The Archives -- August 11, 2021

This is how much diesel fuel it takes to transport Canadian oil by train (CBR) now that the Keystone XL has been killed:

For the archives and for the granddaughters:

• 1 unit train has 100 cars, 2 engines and weighs 27,240,000 lbs
  
• 1 unit train carries 3,000,000 gallons of oil  
• 1 train uses 55.5 gallons of diesel per mile 
• it takes 119,000 gallons of diesel to go 2,150 miles from Hardisty, AB (Canada) to Freeport, TX 
• the Keystone XL pipeline was to deliver 34,860,000 gallons of oil per day
• it would take 12 trains and 1,428,000 gallons of diesel to deliver that amount. PER DAY!
• 521,220,000 gallons of diesel per year 
• the oil will still go to market with or without the pipeline 
• by stopping the pipeline billions of gallons of diesel will be wasted and cause needless pollution 

Alternative?

• stop the Tar Sands all together? Then we must ship the oil from the overseas sandbox. 
• 1 large oil tanker can haul 120,000,000 gallons of oil 
• 1 boat takes 15 days to float across the Atlantic 
• 1 boat uses 63,000 gallons of fuel PER DAY, that is about 1 million gallons of the most polluting type fuel in the world PER TRIP 
• *(See below) Or take 3.5 days of Keystone Pipeline to move the same amount of oil with a fraction of the pollution 
• *In international waters ship emissions remains one of the least regulated parts of our global transportation system. The fuel used in ships is waste oil, basically what is left over after the crude oil refining process. It is the same as asphalt and is so thick that when cold it can be walked upon. It's the cheapest and most polluting fuel available and the world's 90,000 ships chew through an astonishing 7.29 million barrels of it each day, or more than 84% of all exported oil production from Saudi Arabia 
• shipping is by far the biggest transport polluter in the world. There are 760 million cars in the world today emitting approx. 78,599 tons of Sulphur Oxides (SOx) annually 
• the world's 90,000 vessels burn approximately 370 million tons of fuel per year emitting 20 million tons of sulphur oxides. That equates to 260 times more sulphur oxides being emitted by ships than the world's entire car fleet 
• one large ship alone can generate approx. 5,200 tons of Sulphur oxide pollution in a year, meaning that 15 of the largest ships now emit as much SOx as the worlds 760 million cars 
• eliminate all gas consuming cars and diesel vehicles? 
• worldwide car gas consumption is 403,583,712,000 gallons a year. That's billions 
• worldwide oil consumption is 1,500,000,000,000 gallons a year. That's trillions
• it takes 2.15 gallons of oil to make 1 gallon of car gas and .6 gal of diesel 
• so it takes 867,704,980,800 gallons of oil to run the worlds cars, most diesel vehicles for a year and some ships 
• that leaves 632,295,019,200 gallons of oil for other uses 
• passenger vehicles are only a very small percentage of the problem. If emissions are the problem why not just capture them at the exhaust? 
• create an industry to clean exhaust instead of crushing an entire industry and building a complete untested, replacement industry? 

Alternative, mining:

• are we willing to dramatically increase mining to get all the minerals necessary to make all these batteries and electric motors? 
• mining is way worse for the environment than oil extraction.

Now That TC Energy Has Abandoned The Keystone XL, Some Observations -- June 10, 2021

This page is not ready for prime time. 

See this post, also. 

Also, activists are targeting Big Oil; why that could backfire. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Headlines:

• TC Energy cancels critical Keystone XL pipeline (it couldn't have been too critical; we've lived without it for two decades)
• Canada's oil industry optimistic as prices rebound

Now that TC Energy has abandoned the Keystone XL, some observations.

• the Keystone XL, two arenas: the political arena, and the non-political arena
• with regard to the political arena, the faux environmentalists won
• the Keystone XL was the pipeline story that spawned all the rest, including the Enbridge pipelines, lines 3 and 5; the DAPL; the natural gas pipelines in the northeast; etc. The Keystone XL "win" was huge; hard to say whether it will affect outcome of existing pipeline fights;

The rest of the observations will address the non-political arena:

• headline above: "TC Energy cancels critical Keystone XL pipeline": it couldn't have been too critical; it was on the drawing board in the early 2000s', probably as early as 2005 with the US shale revolution; "we've" lived without it for almost two decades; the pipeline couldn't have been too critical;
• there is no evidence that Gulf Coast refiners will re-configure/optimize their operations for light oil as long as heavy oil is available;
• most surprising: Canadian oil sands operators have survived some of the most brutal economic impacts over the past few years;
• many thought that oil from the Canadian oil sands was landlocked; absolutely not true
  
• headline today: western Canadian operators optimistic about the future -- this is the day after the Keystone XL project was finally abandoned; the western Canadian operators knew this was coming years ago;
• but the US is still going to need lots of heavy oil
  
• group-think: 
• the big loser: Canada
  
• the big winners: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Latin America
• to some extent that's true, but it's all relative
• in reality, with regard to this very small piece of the oil pie:
• the big loser: US consumers (price of oil / price of gasoline goes up slightly)
• safety and efficiency: CBR is so much less efficient and so much more dangerous than pipelines; and all those traffic crossings in Kansas and Nebraska -- they've just gotten a whole lot worse; 
  
• the big winner: investors; CBR; every other pipeline operator; the Permian;
  
• a number of readers are very, very aware of this and have written me to tell me how they are "playing" this story
• the big winner: investors. If you don't agree, ask yourself two questions:
  
• as an investor, ask yourself, where would you be investing had the Keystone XL been in operation today?
• as an investor, ask yourself, where should I be investing now that the Keystone XL project has been abandoned, once and for all?
• the answers to those two questions are fascinating
  
• the Keystone XL -- other than transiting the Bakken -- had absolutely nothing to do with the Bakken; the Keystone XL was going to transport heavy oil, not light oil
• add up the "negatives" and the "positives" and the demise of the Keystone XL was a net win for Bakken operators;

Bottom line:

• in the political arena, all sentient Americans should be upset that the Keystone XL was killed;
• in the investment arena, where I now live, we should all be happy that the Keystone XL was killed -- perhaps not happy, perhaps "neutral" at best, but taking advantage of this new reality, in our investment decisions.
  

I have flip-flopped on this. for the past ten years (?) I was in the political arena when it came to the Keystone XL; for over ten years I have been steadily moving from the political arena to the investing arena; I still have a long way to go, but I'm getting there.

From Vern Whitten -- How Well Did Keystone Pipeline Operator Do With 2019 Oil Spill? January 20, 2021

Interestingly enough the mainstream media never thought this story interesting enough to post it. But Vern Whitten out of Fargo did. Huge thanks for his update. Wow.

Plus, without question, they reimbursed the surface owners for losses.

Also, without question, Mr Whitten would love to hear from you.

Vern Whitten Photography

www.vernwhittenphotography.com

(701) 261-7658

President Trump Issues New Presidential Permit To Expand Capacity Of Keystone Pipeline -- July 30, 2020

Link here.

Trump issued a new presidential permit for the base Keystone line, allowing TC to boost capacity by 170,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 761,000 bpd, TC spokesman Terry Cunha said on Thursday. The first 50,000 bpd increment begins flowing next year.

The additional Canadian crude oil on the line will help meet growing U.S. refinery demand, Chief Executive Russ Girling said on a conference call.

When Trump came to office, he revived TC's proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which has been delayed by opposition from landowners, environmental groups and tribes. It would give Canada expanded access to its top oil market after its existing pipelines ran full in recent years.

The U.S. Supreme Court reinforced this month a lower court ruling that blocked a key environmental permit, blocking substantial U.S. construction.

TC expects Keystone XL to enter service in 2023. Construction is underway in Canada, and TC is working on a revised 2020 U.S. work plan focusing on areas that have all permits and approvals, Girling said.

Much more at the link.

Keystone XL Pipeline Work To Begin In Montana -- April 6, 2020

AP link here: work starts in Montana on Keystone XL pipeline. For the archives. Milestones tracked here.

Later: a reader noted that the AP story did not include a map of the proposed route for the Keystone XL. The reader provided a map of that portion of Montana through with the pipeline will run, along with markers for pumping stations and other essential landmarks. I have not fact-checked the accuracy of this map.

Wow, Who Saw This Coming? -- Keystone XL Update -- April 2, 2020

Alberta -- the province -- just stepped up to the plate! Backs Keystone XL. Puts money where it's mouth is -- link here -- Alberta, Canada:

• a $1.1 billion investment in the Keystone XL pipeline;
• a $4.2 billion loan guarantee
• both to help TC Energy Corp build the line to the US Gulf of Mexico
• Calgary-based pipeline company
• The move to start construction now, when the crude market has crashed and the project still faces roadblocks in the U.S., shows how critical the fight for the oil industry’s survival has become in Alberta, home to the world’s third-largest crude reserves. The province’s benchmark crude is trading at a record low of $4.09 a barrel.

Milk in my neighborhood grocery story is selling for $4.99 half gallon ($419.16/bbl?).

US Petroleum Exports Exceed Imports In September, 2019

Link here.

In September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported, the first month this has happened since monthly records began in 1973.

A decade ago, the United States was importing 10 million b/d more petroleum than it was exporting.

Long-running changes in U.S. trade patterns for both crude oil and petroleum products have resulted in a steady decrease in overall U.S. net petroleum imports.

But note:

Despite increasing exports of crude oil, however, the United States remains a net importer of crude oil. The United States continues importing primarily heavy high-sulfur crude oils that most U.S. refineries are configured to process, and more than 60% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada and Mexico.

 There was a reason why "we" wanted the Keystone XL.

Keystone Pipeline (Not Keystone XL) With Leak In Northeastern ND -- Extent Unknown -- October 30, 2019

Link here.

• current leak near Edinburg, ND, Walsh County; discovered Tuesday, October 29, 2019
• when discovered, flow turned off
• Edinburg: about 45 miles northwest of Grand Forks, ND
• this was the pipeline that was built in 2010
• goes through seven US states
• carries Canadian heavy oil from western Canada
• extent of leak unknown; should know more Thursday, October 31, 2019
• it has experienced spills in the past
• 2011: 14,000 gallons (350 bbls) leak in southeastern ND, near the South Dakota border
• 2017: 210,000 gallons (5,000 bbls) leak in northeastern SD, near the ND border

Update On Proposed "Bridger Expansion" -- Huge Non-Canadian Keystone XL Competitor -- Won't Touch Nebraska -- October 19, 2019

From the Bismarck Tribune:

• will entail building two separate oil pipelines
• one straddling North Dakota and Montan
• another in Wyoming
• 16-inch North-Dakota pipeline will be called the "South Bend" 
• 150,000 bopd from Johnsons Corner in McKenzie County to Baker, MT
• will extend for 137 miles across the two states (ND and MT)
• Wyoming line will be known as the "Equality" line
• 200,000 bopd; from Hulett, WY, to Guernsey, WY
• will enter the national system, including the proposed Liberty Line
• Liberty Line: a separate project by Bridger and Philips 66 that's slated to run to Cushing, OK
• does this look like a direct non-Canadian competitor to the Keystone XL?

The "Seward (Nebraska) Jog" -- August 24, 2019

If you like O. Henry stories, you will like this story from the Schuyler (Nebraska) Sun. At least I did. I hope there are no more surprises; I only read about half of the article -- have to keep going. I'm already behind.

The reader who sent me that story also sent me the map and asked if I had any idea why the "alternate" route included the "Seward Jog"?

I did not but I bet there's a story there.

Here's the map:

Note that once the "XL" met up with the existing Keystone pipeline the routes were the same -- the "XL" would use the same corridor / easements as the original Keystone ... except for little "Seward jog."

Gasoline Could Drop Below $2.00 / Gallon In North Texas -- June 10, 2019

The other night I noted that gasoline was priced at $2.159 near Texas Motor Speedway, northwest of Dallas-Ft Worth.

************************************
Williston High School

************************************

The Saga Continues

Link here. Despite court win, the Keystone is no closer to completion.

**********************************

Global Warming 

Best global warming site on the net.

The Ninth Circuit Court? Really? -- Keystone XL Back On The Table -- June 7, 2019

A big "thanks" to the reader who spotted this:

A Ninth Circuit Court judge nullified a key barrier to the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, arguing that it no longer applies after the Trump administration replaced the permit earlier this year.

Judge Edward Leavy out of Montana ruled Thursday night in favor of the Trump administration and TransCanada Corporation’s motion to dismiss.

The ruling sided with arguments that the old permit for the pipeline, which was replaced by the Trump administration in March, is no longer valid and therefore the injunction associated with it also no longer applies.

The action hands a victory to the Trump administration, which has long fought to finish construction of the international pipeline. It also opens up the door to restarting construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which was halted in courts last fall in part due to failure to properly account for the cumulative impacts of greenhouse gases from the construction.

Trump in May signed a presidential permit as a way to jump-start the delayed construction of the 1,179-mile pipeline. The order superseded a March 2017 order.

The Obama Legacy: A Shortage Of Oil; An Inconvenient Truth -- May 29, 2019

From Bloomberg vis Rigzone (let's see if the killing of the Keystone XL is mentioned in this article). Data points:

• a global shortage of heavy crude oil will create hurdles for America's key refining belts just as they ramp up gasoline production for summer driving
• Gulf Coast: dwindling heavy oil supplies have suppressed refining margins
• Midwest refiners: many not reach the high run rates seen last summer
• Gulf Coast: process requiring heavy oil already at lowest levels in a decade
• Ah, yes, here it is: blame it on Trump's sanctions on Iran and on Venezuela
• but nowhere is the Keystone XL mentioned 
• the oilmen knew what they were doing
• Canada has more than enough heavy oil to make up for any loss from Venezuela, Iran, and, Mexico

What a doofus:

US Looking For Heavy Oil -- April 24, 2019

Looking for heavy oil (in all the wrong places? LOL).

Note:

• Venezuela: say what?
• Mexico: in deep doo-doo!

From wiki:

If completed, the Keystone XL would have added 510,000 barrels per day increasing the total capacity up to 1.1 million barrels per day.

Let's see:

• Saudi Arabia: 750K
• Nigeria: 75K
• Iraq: 300K
• Kuwait: 75K
• Total: 1.2 million bopd

One could argue that had President Obama not killed the Keystone XL, North America's dependence on "foreign oil" or OPEC oil would have been reduced to zero. Saudi Arabia would still import their oil to their refinery along the US gulf coast, but that would have been about it. And US gasoline would have been significantly less expensive, all things being equal.

Oilmen realized decades ago that the US would need heavy oil from Canada. No one ever expected a president to make such an incredibly stupid strategic decision. Even Hillary, as SecState, supported Keystone XL until she didn't.

I assume President Obama would have made up the heavy oil deficit with heavy oil from Iran. Only Valerie Jarrett knows for sure.

US Refiners Investing In Low Sulfur Fuel Production -- March 27, 2019

For newbies:

• US refiners, back in the day, back in the 50s and 60s: optimized for light, sweet oil, for WTI
• then, the Mideast, and OPEC: refiners, over time, invested in refineries to optimize refining heavy oil
• in the late 90s, early 2000s: heavy oil -- very heavy oil -- discovered in western Canada
• early 2000s: US oil companies realized they could replace OPEC oil with western hemisphere oil (western Canada, Mexico, Venezuela); optimized refineries to handle heavy oil; cost? $6 billion;
• November 6, 2015, remarkably that Reuters story is still on the net, "Obama Kills The Keystone Pipeline"
• 2015 - 2019: Mexican production declines; Venezuela implodes; 
• 2018: Canadians can't get their act together -- western Canadian oil is landlocked -- TransMountain; Line 3; and, Keystone XL all killed, delayed, in limbo; Alberta limits Canadian production

And, here we are.

Along the way, I suggested the US refiners, after investing $6 billion to "convert" from light oil to heavy oil, weren't interested in converting again, back to light oil. Making things worse: President Obama and president-elect-in-waiting Hillary both said they would kill the coal industry and had their sights on US oil.

The refiners jerry-rigged their system, using heavy oil where they could find it, to "balance" their glut of light oil so it could be refined in US refineries along the US Gulf Coast.

Now today, being reported over at oilprice, Refiners around the world have spent $1 billion on upgrading their refineries to handle light oil.

Data points from that article, but let's start with the elephant in the room, or should we say, the whale in the aquarium?

Eearlier this month the International Energy Agency said in its annual Oil 2019 report, “The 2020 IMO marine regulation change is one of the most dramatic ever seen to product specifications, although the shipping and refining industries have had several years notice.”

Exxon says demand for sulfur-rich oil will plummet by 25%.

Losers? Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, OPEC.

Winners? Texas, North Dakota, and points in between.

Now, back to the data points in that linked oilprice article:

• around the world, refiners have spent $1 billion since 2015 (a pittance in the big scheme of things) -- about the time President Obama killed the Keystone XL
• but the investments will continue beyond 2020
• IMO 2020: becomes effective January 1, 2020 -- less than a year from now
• [I may be wrong: analysts worry about an over-supply of light oil]
• refiners currently rushing to capture higher profit margins of middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasooil which have a lower sulfur content, with an anticipated spike in demand later this year

Today:

• WTI: down a percent to $59.32
• Brent crude: down half a percent to $67.14
• OPEC basket: down 3/4th of a percent to $66.19