Wednesday, May 14, 2025

"We Own 70% Of That" -- Qatar -- Golden Pass -- Update -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48582GP.

Updates

May 14, 2025: Golden Pass update. Link here.

Golden Pass #LNG timing update.

"We [Qatar] own 70% of that. But these projects take time to actually deliver and we expect first LNG to come by the end of this year (2025) and hopefully to inaugurate officially the project in the 1st qt of 26,"  Qatari Energy Minister.
.

This is for Train 1 of 0.68 bcf/d. No ETA for Train 2 and Train 3 start.

That $400 million Boeing? Probably paid for in several weeks. LOL.  Best part? Trump living rent-free in Schumer's brain.

Original Post 

From March 4, 2025:

March 5, 2025 -- link here. This was the extension that the project needed -- back in March, 2025 -- thank you, Mr Trump and Mr Biden. The FERC commissioners. If I have this correct, three of the four were appointed by President Biden in 2024, and the current chairman was appointed by President Trump during the latter's first term in 2021. Link here.

April 28, 2025 -- within Trump's first 100 days! Another win for Trump. 

Link here.

It Doesn't Feel Like A Recession -- GDP -- First Reading 1Q25 And GDPNow For 2Q25

Locator: 48632GDP.

Link here.

First reading of 1Q25 GDP (previously posted, and posting again, for personal reasons):


It sure doesn't feel like a recession. 

Until I started blogging I never gave much thought to the GDP. Now I realize how ridiculous it is. Trump could set a record GDP by just issuing an executive order that loggers need to start cutting down trees as quickly as they can; and, the federal government needs to maximize hiring and maximize spending. Or he could order a bunch of folks to dig ditches, fill the ditches back in with dirt, and then dig the ditches again. 

But it's the best we have. Heaven forbid we try to improve how one measures the GDP of a nation.

GDPNow estimates 2QGDP at 2.3% (May 8, 2025. Next release, May 15, 2025 (tomorrow). 

And about those imports, LOL. From today:




Eight New Permits; Sixteen Permits Renewed; Five Permits Canceled; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48631B.

WTI: $62.84.

Active rigs: 31

Eight new permits, May 13, 2025 - May 14, 2025, #41908 - #41915, inclusive:

  • Operators: Devon
  • Fields: Painted Wood (Williams);
  • Comments:
    • Devon has permits for four Owan Trust North wells, NWNW 29-154-103, 
      • to be sited 971 / 1061 FNL and 362 FWL;
    • Devon has permits for four Scha wells, NWNW 33-156-92, 
      • to be sited 939 / 1029 FNL and 325 FWL

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • Oasis (16): Domalakes (Cottonwood) (5); Bud (McGregor) (6); Aune Federal (Eightmile) (5); all in Williams County.
    • 30994, Bud 14X-20EXH, McGregor,
    • 30995, Bud 14X-20A, McGregor,
    • 30996, Bud 5895 41-20 5BX, McGregor,
    • 30997, Bud 5895 41-20 4B, McGregor,
    • 30998, Bud 5895 41-20 3B, McGregor,
    • 30999, But 5895 41-20 2B, McGregor,

Five permits canceled, May 13, 2025 - May 14, 2025:

  • Whiting (4): Kaldahl, Bergstrom, Helling (2) -- Williams County;
  • Grayson Mill: Owan Trust 29-26F 1H, file #39961, Williams County;

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39975, 0, BR, Manchester 21, Dunn County;
  • 40482, 1,133, CLR, Catron 2-26H, Dunn County;
  • 40851, 1,443, CLR, Taney 2-23HSL, Dunn County;
  • 40853, 802, CLR, Taney 5-23H, Dunn County;
  • 41020, 1,699, CLR,Alfsvaag Federal 7-31H, Williams County;
  • 41023, 1,284, CLR, Bud FIU 8-30H, Williams County;
  • 40852, 1,329, CLR, Taney 3-23H, Dunn County;

Daily Quiz: May 14, 2025

Locator: 48630BIO.

Quick: who is Shri Thanedar?

Another amazing immigrant story.

Link to wiki.

******************************
Apple

I could be wrong, but it appears that "everything" in the network arena --- smart watches, tablets, laptops, and desktops -- are optimized for mobile devices, specifically tablets. Or perhaps better said, the tech companies, online retail companies, FinTech companies, logistic companies, etc., are all devoting their resources to optimizing operations on mobile devices, specifically the tablet and the cellular phone. I'm sure others can articulate that a whole lot better than I can but if I want to get something done -- other than blogging -- the tablet is the "go-to" device. 

Now, this week, this story, link here: Apple's iPad demand soars.

I can't wait to read the comments at that link. LOL.

In bullet form, tablets, globally:

  • Apple led the global tablet market in 1Q25; achieved 14% growth y/y;
  • worldwide tablet shipments reached 36.8 million units in 1Q25; that was an 8.5% y/y increase;
  • Apple shipped -- holy mackerel -- 13.7 million iPads in 1Q25 -- up from 12.1 million iPads in iQ24;
  • that explains why the price of iPads are plummeting -- clearly never, ever a better time to buy an iPad;
  • Apple's global market share jumped from 35.5% to 37.3% y/y
  • Apple's shipment growth outpaced the broader market and occurred despite increased competitive pressure from Chinese vendors including Xiaomi, Huawei, and HONOR.
  • going for the low-margin market:
  • Xiaomi, in particular, saw a 56.1% y/y increase in tablet shipments, reaching 3.1 million unit and surpassing Lenovo

Lenovo is a Chinese technology company with extensive ties to the People's Liberation Army and the CCP's state-directed espionage campaigns. Lenovo's largest shareholder is the Chinese government. Currently, the U.S. Navy Exchange offers at least ten CCP-linked Lenovo computer and IT products.

DOD retail exchanges never fail to amaze me.

This comment at the linked article caught me eye:

Xiaomi make some nice stuff but for some reason they keep their best stuff for China only. I flit back and forth between iOS and android devices. The last android device I had was the Pad 5 Pro 12.4, it was basically an iPad Pro in design but running android. If I hadn’t switched to iPad specifically for Procreate I’d likely still be using it. 

Procreate: the #1 selling app in the App Store. The #1 selling app. Think about that. I have Procreate on my iPad. It was one of the first, maybe the first, app I ever bought. The five-year-old twins love it. 

Another great comment:

I'm not sure why shipments are up, but we have bought 3 in the last year. I get that some people never have a use for tablets, but much like I've never used a laptop in any way shape or form, doesn't mean millions of other peeps couldn't live without one.

My wife is constantly FB, IG, YT, Apple News for dozens of things first thing when she's up... and TV in bed. Plus all the regular stuff... work emails, zoom meetings, etc. It's 1000x easier than a laptop for her. We call it her boyfriend.
If she needs to do tons of emails or reports she's got a desktop with a mini.
Refurb 11" M1 Pro, was $600. [Today, the 11" iPad Pro lists for $999 and up.]
Kids are in college and use the base iPads with pencils for notes. $275 on BF last year. They zip thru them like its nothing. Like watching a teenager text for the first time and wondering how in HELL can they get their fingers moving that fast.

That said, they all have alternatives to the iPad, minis and MBAs.

For purely content consumption, its great, and from an Apple ecosystem perspective -- photos, texts, Facetime, all synced.

Looks like it's time to buy my wife a new 11-inch or 13-ince iPad. One would think the 13-inch is better for watching movies but the 11-inch might be a better size for watching in bed. 11-inch? $599 list price but now selling for $529 at Amazon. The iPad lists for $349 but now selling for $299 on Amazon. 

$8 for a tall Pike Place and a croissant x 20 days = $160. Give up two months of "basic" Starbucks for an M3 iPad. Wow.

ChatGPT -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48629CHATGPT.

What is the best iPad right now? Seriously can anyone do better than this in under 10 seconds.

ChatGPT:

As of May 2025, the best iPad for you depends on your specific needs and budget. Here’s a breakdown of the top models:


🔝 Best Overall: 

iPad Air (M3, 2025)

  • Why it’s great: Strikes a perfect balance between performance and price.

  • Features:

    • Powered by the Apple M3 chip for robust performance.

    • Available in 11-inch and 13-inch Liquid Retina displays.

    • Supports Apple Pencil Pro and Magic Keyboard.

    • Offers Apple Intelligence features for enhanced AI capabilities.

  • Ideal for: Students, professionals, and creatives seeking a powerful yet affordable tablet.

  • Price: Starting at $599, with current deals bringing it down to $499. 


💰 Best Budget Option: 

iPad (11th Gen, A16, 2025)

  • Why it’s great: Offers excellent value for everyday tasks.

  • Features:

    • Equipped with the A16 Bionic chip.

    • 11-inch display with Touch ID and USB-C connectivity.

    • Compatible with Apple Pencil (1st Gen) and Magic Keyboard Folio.

  • Ideal for: Casual users, students, and those on a tight budget.

  • Price: Around $349, with some retailers offering it for $299. 


🧠 Best for Power Users: 

iPad Pro (M4, 2024)

  • Why it’s great: Delivers top-tier performance and display quality.

  • Features:

    • Powered by the M4 chip.

    • Available in 11-inch and 13-inch OLED displays.

    • Supports Apple Pencil Pro and Magic Keyboard.

    • Ideal for intensive tasks like video editing and 3D rendering.

  • Ideal for: Professionals and creatives requiring maximum performance.

  • Price: Starting at $999. 


📱 Best for Portability: 

iPad Mini (7th Gen, A17 Pro, 2024)

  • Why it’s great: Combines compact size with powerful performance.

  • Features:

    • 8.3-inch display powered by the A17 Pro chip.

    • Lightweight and easy to carry.

    • Supports Apple Pencil (2nd Gen).

  • Ideal for: Travelers, note-takers, and those preferring a smaller device.

  • Price: Currently discounted to $399 from the original $499. 


Summary Recommendations:

  • Best Overall: iPad Air (M3, 2025) – Versatile and powerful for most users.

  • Best Budget: iPad (11th Gen, A16, 2025) – Affordable without compromising essential features.

  • Best for Power Users: iPad Pro (M4, 2024) – Top-tier performance for demanding tasks.

  • Best for Portability: iPad Mini (7th Gen, A17 Pro, 2024) – Compact and powerful.


If you have specific requirements like gaming, digital art, or professional work, feel free to ask for more tailored advice!

 *********************************
For The High School Senior Who Needs An Essay To Graduate

Ask ChatGPT "why was The Great Gatsby so great? 

I could do this all day.

Quick: who was the greatest American singer of all time?

Ask ChatGPT.

Newsom, WTI, ChatGPT -- Wednesday , May 14, 2025

Locator: 48628ARCHIVES.

Newsom: reality sucks.


WTI: Trump would like to see WTI in $40 - $50 range. 

************************
Ask ChatGPT

AVGO: did Broadcom accompany Trump tot he Mideast, May, 2025?

ChatGPT

As of now, there is no public record indicating that Broadcom or its CEO, Hock Tan, accompanied President Donald Trump during his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia. 

While the delegation included prominent American business leaders such as Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and CEOs from companies like Nvidia, Google, and BlackRock, Broadcom’s participation was not mentioned in the available reports. 

However, it’s noteworthy that Broadcom’s stock experienced a significant uptick during this period, likely influenced by broader market optimism surrounding U.S.-Saudi tech partnerships and semiconductor deals announced during the visit. 

Although Broadcom was not directly involved in the high-profile agreements, such as Nvidia’s and AMD’s collaborations with Saudi AI startup Humain, the positive market sentiment extended to other U.S. semiconductor firms, including Broadcom. 

In summary, while Broadcom did not have a representative traveling with President Trump to Saudi Arabia in May 2025, the company benefited from the favorable market conditions spurred by the visit’s focus on technological and economic collaboration.

Probably Nothing To See Here — May 14, 2025

Locator: 48627TOPSTORIES.

TOP STORY: Trump’s trip to the Middle East. Deals worth a trillion dollars in two days. Saudi Arabia surges in global influence; Trump removes sanctions on Syria. Huge deals with Qatar.

From ChatGPT

President Donald Trump met with Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia on May 13, 2025. This historic meeting, held during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Riyadh, marked the first encounter between a U.S. president and a Syrian leader in 25 years .

The meeting signaled a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Syria. President Trump announced the lifting of all U.S. sanctions on Syria to facilitate the country’s reconstruction and expressed a willingness to normalize relations with the new Syrian leadership.

Times are a'changing: I'm amazed to the extent that the legacy media outlets are under-reporting the Trump trip to the Mideast. But that's no long a problem. ChatGPT has taken up the slack. 

Exhibit A: what's the top story in the US right now? Asked at 12:09 p.m. PT, May 14, 2025.

From ChatGPT:

As of May 14, 2025, 12:10 p.m., the leading news story in the United States centers on President Donald Trump’s recent diplomatic engagements in the Middle East.

During his visit, President Trump announced the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria and met with Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a move that has drawn significant attention and debate. Additionally, the U.S. finalized a substantial $142 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia and a $200 billion aviation agreement with Qatar.

These developments have sparked discussions regarding U.S. foreign policy and its implications for regional stability.

In parallel, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faced a contentious Senate hearing, where he defended significant budget cuts to public health agencies, including the NIH and CDC. His testimony, marked by protests and his refusal to affirm support for vaccinations, has intensified debates over public health policy and the administration’s approach to healthcare. 

These events underscore a pivotal moment in U.S. politics, reflecting shifts in both international relations and domestic policy priorities.

Does this exceed in quality what I might find at The New York Times?

Now, exhibit B: what's the top business story in the US right now? Asked at 12:12 p.m. PT, May 14, 2025.

From ChatGPT:

As of May 14, 2025, 12:14 p.m. PT, the top business story in the United States revolves around a significant rally in the technology sector, driven by major AI infrastructure deals and easing trade tensions with China.

Key Highlights:

  • Nvidia’s Surge: Nvidia’s stock climbed 2.5% following a substantial agreement with a Saudi AI firm to supply high-end GPUs over five years, pushing its market capitalization back above $3 trillion. 

  • Super Micro Computer’s Jump: Shares of Super Micro Computer soared nearly 13% after announcing a $20 billion multi-year AI infrastructure deal with Saudi company DataVolt, involving advanced GPU platforms and cooling systems for large-scale AI campuses. 

  • Palantir’s Performance: Palantir’s stock rose an additional 2%, reaching an all-time high, with its 2025 performance now up 70%. 

  • Market Indices: The Nasdaq increased by 0.3%, the S&P 500 by 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat. 

  • Trade Developments: The market reacted positively to tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, contributing to the upward trend in stock futures. 

  • These developments underscore the growing influence of AI infrastructure investments and international trade relations on the U.S. stock market

Does this exceed in quality what I might find at The Wall Street Journal?

Week 20: May 13, 2025 -- May 19, 2025

Locator: 48627TOPSTORIES.

IN PROGRESS

Unchanged — President Trump first 100 days came to an end April 30, 2025. The top three issues, an update:

  • the Ukraine - Russian war; it appears, at least 50% of Americans favor Putin taking what he wants, if that's what it takes to end the war; the war now moving toward a truce; 
  • tariffs and ongoing trade war: it appears, at least 50% of Americans want tariffs on China reduced so American products from China can come down in price; trade war takes a breather; UK-US first to announce a new agreement; 
  • southern surge: appellate judges and at least 50% of Americans feel arresting / deporting terrorists whose home country is Venezuela, Colombia, Iran, or Russia, is not giving them due process and it's just not "American." Appellate judges and at least 50% of Americans, it seems, favor the concept of sanctuary cities. One judge finally rules in favor of Trump.

******************************************
Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects

***************************
The First 100 Days

The first 100 days: January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

Seventeenth Week Of President Trump's Presidency
  • 16 x 7 = 119 days.
**********************************
The Top Stories
TOP STORY:
  • Trump’s trip to the Middle East. Deals worth a trillion dollars in two days. Saudi Arabia surges in global influence; Trump removes sanctions on Syria. Huge deals with Qatar.
  • last American Hamas hostage released ahead of Trump’s Mideast visit; question not asked: which Mideastern potentate had that control? All roads lead to Qatar. Google Qatar Hamas.
Photo-op of the daymust seeOne of many examples.

Biggest story of the weeknothing to see here.

Top stories of the week:

  • Governor Newsom to cut medical benefits for illegal immigrants.

Top international non-energy story:
  • Humain.

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy stories:

  • Newark,  New Jersey, airport out of control; FAA wants airlines to cap flights in and out of Newark.
  • Ben and Jerry’s.

Top national energy story:


Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:

  • record number of Bakken permits being renewed. 

Focus On Dividends -- Best Way To Invest -- WSJ -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48626DIV.

See disclaimer
. This is not an investment site.

For the archives: for my extended family members only. Not meant for any other readers who follow the blog or might otherwise end up here.  I assume there are any number of ETFs that meet this strategy including SCHD.

Hey, "buy the way" (pun intended) when I see the graphic below it makes me think a lot of financial advisors have clients who are afraid of making money. Just saying. Neither  Nvidia nor Warren Buffett's company pays any dividend. [That's not quite right: NVDA pays a very, very small dividend. -- I had forgotten that.] 

By the way, NVDA is up another 3% today; has a P/E under 600 (sic); and, is trending toward it's all-time high.

Now back to dividends.

Link here.

Consider a twist: During a recent discussion, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian was asked by podcast host Meb Faber whether she had some simple screens she recommends for picking stocks.
She said dividing large capitalization, dividend-paying stocks into five buckets by yield is the first step. It isn’t the top group that one should buy, though, because those really could be dogs—sort of like Walgreens before its meltdown. I
nstead, buy the second-highest group of yielders. “So it’s just like the Steady Eddie strategy that anybody can run…you can get this data off the internet for free. You can run it yourself every month, and it’s just been, like, a really kind of an interesting, very, very boring unsexy strategy that seems to work in most market environments,” said Subramanian.

Something To Think About -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken Or The Current Industrial Revolution -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48625TEXAS.
Locator: 48624TAXES.

Just one more reason to retire in Texas. Just saying.

For the archives.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Step-Up: Investopedia. Link here.

Step-Up in Basis in Community Property States.
Residents of nine community property states, including California, can use the double step-up in basis rule.
This allows a step-up in basis for community property—assets accumulated during marriage, excluding inheritances and gifts—for the surviving spouse. In other states, assets owned solely by the surviving spouse do not receive the step-up in basis, while jointly owned assets receive only half the step-up in basis they would receive in a community property state.
Alaska, Kentucky, South Dakota, and Tennessee allow residents and non-residents to create community property trusts that qualify held assets for community property tax treatment, including the double step-up in basis rule, under the federal tax code.
Texas is a community property state. This means that assets and debts acquired during a marriage are generally considered to be jointly owned by both spouses and are divided fairly in the event of divorce, according to the Texas State Law Library.

Step-Up:

Bank accounts upon death: link here.

Saudi - Trump: A Trillion Dollars In Deals In Two Days? -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48624SAUDI.

Updates

8:04 a.m. PT, May 14, 2025: I asked the same question for Oracle and Broadcom and got surprising answers. LOL. 

8:02 a.m. PT, May 14, 2025: how investors can use ChatGPT -- I simply used "option-space bar" to open. my ChatGPT on my laptop while lying in bed, and asked the question (see below) and ChatGPT gave me this answer:

8:00 a.m. PT, May 14, 2025: I came across this after I posted my notes below.

Original Post

Saudi photo-ops: must see. One of many examples.

US LNG handshake Louisiana LNG project; link here.

NVDA:

  • CEO announces chip deal with Saudi-backed Humain
  • to power 500MW AI data center,
  • scaling to 1.9 GW by 2023

AMD: hits a three-month high; link here;

  • AMD joins Saudi firm Humain
  • $10-billion push to build AI infrastructure

Humain:



From ChatGPT, Humain: Saudi Arabia's state-backed AI powerhouse.

Mohammed bin Salman under the Public Investment Fund (PIF). As part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative, HUMAIN aims to position the Kingdom as a global leader in AI by developing comprehensive AI infrastructure, including advanced data centers and Arabic-language AI models. The company has announced strategic partnerships with tech giants like NVIDIA, AMD, and AWS to build AI “factories of the future” and enhance the nation’s digital capabilities 

The stories continue to come.

  • Trump’s trip to the Middle East
  • deals worth a trillion dollars in two days
  • Saudi Arabia surges in global influence;
  • Trump removes sanctions on Syria
  • huge deals with Qatar: Qatar to buy more Boeing jets. Says relationship with US reaches new highs.

RBN On Hydrogen -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48623B.

SIRTRUMP, the art of the deal, and making America great again:

  • in past few days one can see that in many cases Trump sees win-win situations and "nothing" is a zero-sum game
  • friendship, loyalty, respect go a long way in business deals


Saudi photo-ops: must see. One of many examples.

US LNG handshake Louisiana LNG project; link here.

NVDA:

  • CEO announces chip deal with Saudi-backed Humain
  • to power 500MW AI data center,
  • scaling to 1.9 GW by 2023

AMD: hits a three-month high; link here;

  • AMD joins Saudi firm Humain
  • $10-billion push to build AI infrastructure

ARM: cuts into AMD, Intel (INTC) 

China: ????

Russia: ????

  • Ukraine is so much for worse for Russia than Vietnam ever was for US
  • will take decades to recover; media will fail to cover
  • will be a story for Trump's successors twenty years from now

****************************
Back to the Bakken

TXO (not to be confused with XTO):

WTI: $63.21.

New wells:

  • Thursday, May 15, 2025: 38 for the month, 138 for the quarter, 330 for the year,
    • 41037, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16B,
    • 40806, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-LW-154-93-1003H-2,
    • 40493, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 5B,
  • Wednesday, May 14, 2025: 35 for the month, 135 for the quarter, 327 for the year,
    • 40910, conf, BR, Devils Backbone 5D,
    • 40804, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-LW-154-93-1004H-1,
    • 40177, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-16H,
    • 39981, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 3H,
    • 37575, conf, BR, Keene 21-2 TFH,

RBN Energy: as hydrogen market evolves, best uses will focus on cost, sustainability. Archived.

Hydrogen has a well-established, if limited, role in the modern economy. It has been used in refining and ammonia production for decades, but its potential has long been touted in various areas, including decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial processes such as steelmaking, as well as in larger roles in heavy-duty transportation and energy storage. The last few years have seen a significant push to expand hydrogen’s role — an attempt to capitalize on its versatility and lack of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions —  but a number of formidable obstacles to wider adoption remain, including price, availability and infrastructure, in addition to its tenuous political support.
In today’s RBN blog, we look at the challenges that make forecasting the industry’s growth difficult and the emerging consensus around the most practical end uses for hydrogen.