Wednesday, April 7, 2021

CLR Appears To Have Fracked 20 Angus Federal / Simmental Federal Wells -- April 7, 2021

I've only looked at six of the wells, but it appears all wells have been fracked. 

This is really, really cool. This page won't be updated.

It appears CLR has completed or is in the process of completing 20 wells (plus or minus) Angus Federal / Simmental Federal wells -- production / runs are being reported for the first time, February, 2021.

These wells are tracked here

This is a typical profile for the six wells I looked at; I assume all of them have the same profile. The well:

  • 37055, ros (1/8/20)-->drl/NC, CLR, Angus Federal 12-9H, API: 33-053-09232, Elm Tree, producing, 6 days, 2/21; production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2021680380312242650265

And again this is really, really cool. Looking at FracFocus just for this one well:

  • fracked 12/28/2020 - 1/10/2021; 10.1 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass;

Some older wells:

  • 20804, off line, 11/20 - 2/21; t2/13; cum 348K 11/20;
  • 20805, off line, 11/20 - 2/21; t2/13; cum 367K 11/20;
  • 24473, off line, 11/20 - 2/21; t2/13; cum 402K 11/20;
  • 23493, off line, 12/20 - 2/21; t6/13; cum 342K 11/20;
  • 23494, off line, 11/20 - 2/21; t6/13; cum 489K 11/20;
  • 23495, off line 12/20 - 2/21; one day of production, 2/21; t6/13; cum 372K 11/20;
  • 23496, off line, 11/20 - 2/21; t5/13; cum 390K 11/20;
This will be fascinating to see:
  • if there is any halo effect;
  • if the daughter wells are better than the parent wells;

Graphic Of The Day -- April 7, 2021

Saudi Arabia gets a lot of "ink" as the center of the universe when it comes to oil production and export, and to some extent refining.

But this graphic puts things in perspective. 

Posted previously. Link for this graphic.

From a reader:

Port History | Calhoun Port Authority | Point Comfort, TX

Now this - the largest blue crab processing plant in the US!  I love crab - and blue crab especially.  This is now on my bucket list - crab bucket - ha!  I'd heard of Maryland blue crab of course, but had no idea they were a deal in Texas, too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matagorda_Bay

Mask Mandate -- April 7, 2021

Posting this as a stand-alone post. It was sent in as a comment, easily missed by readers.

At ace.mu.nu today someone posted a graph overlaying Covid cases in ND versus SD over time. SD, without a mask mandate was lower than ND with the mandate. SD also hosted Sturgis - a so called "super spreader" event during the time shown. A valid comparison - same population/demographics/climate, etc.

This was in response to "North Dakota living dangerously."

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Light Snack


Holding Texas-sized strawberry.

The Ovintiv Kramer Wells In Siverston Oil Field

The Ovintiv Kramer wells:

Five new permits, #38244 - #38248, inclusive --

  • Operator: Ovintiv
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Ovintiv adds five more Kramer permits to the five they added yesterday;
    • the permits for five Kramer wells to be sited in NWNE 18-150-97;
    • they will be sited 395' FNL and between 1544' and 1464' FEL

Five new permits, #38239 - #38243, inclusive:

  • Operator: Ovintiv
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Ovintiv has permits for five Kramer wells in Siverston oil field;
    • will be sited in NWNE 18-150-97;
    • wells will be sited between 440' and 360' FNL and 2201' FEL;

One currently active Lund well sited in that section:

  • 22390, 1,252, Ovintiv, Lund 26-18SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 172K 2/21; 22 stages; 2.8 million lbs proppant, stimulated 6/24/12;

The graphics:


News And Comment -- North Dakota Living On The Edge -- Could End State-Directed Mask Mandates -- Early Wednesday Evening -- April 7, 2021

Fear the Biden: the more generous the EV subsidies in the US infrastructure bill, the quicker the demise of Tesla's insane stock price. Link here.

Love the Biden: one word -- asphalt. Link here

China: started more coal plants than the entire world retired in 2020. Link here. Greta Thunberg was overheard to say, according to a rumor, not fact-checked: "As long as their CO2 stays inside China, the rest of the world will do just fine."

Road to Canada: Canadian pipeline companies see natural gas opportunities in shift to green energy. Link here at Reuters

Canada’s largest pipeline companies TC Energy and Enbridge Inc see opportunities in their extensive natural gas businesses as a transition to cleaner energy evolves, their chief executives said on Wednesday.

The two Calgary-based companies are among North America’s largest energy infrastructure firms, and the majority of their business is focused on storing and transporting fossil fuels.

TC Energy has the biggest natural gas pipeline system in North America, and CEO Fran├žois Poirier said the company sees plenty of opportunities to allocate capital to that business in the form of organic bolt-on projects.

Storage and transportation assets will be key as the energy transition moves forward and new technologies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions like carbon capture and storage and hydrogen are developed, Poirier said at the online Scotiabank CAPP Energy Symposium.

 Enbridge: sticks to North American oil, gas, renewables strategy. Link here to S&P Global Platts.

While the North American midstream operator is betting on fossil fuels, including crude, being an integral part of the global fuel mix for decades to come, it is mindful of the challenge in building new cross-border oil pipelines due to regulatory hurdles and fierce opposition from environmental groups. It also believes it can leverage growth from certain existing infrastructure with a less intensive amount of new spending.

During a discussion at the webcast Scotiabank CAPP Energy Symposium, Monaco said Enbridge wants to maintain its current approach and address the energy transition at the same time. Enbridge is holding to a fourth-quarter in-service target for its project to replace Line 3 -- a 1,097-mile crude oil pipeline extending from Edmonton, Alberta to Superior, Wisconsin, Monaco said.

"The liquid systems are going to be generating cash for a long time from here," Monaco said. "Maybe, we are not going to convince every investor of that, but that's how we see it."

US gasoline: inventories rise 4 million bbls as imports jump -- EIA. Link her to S&P Global Platts. Most of it headed to the US Atlantic Coast (USAC).

The European lockdowns have helped support gasoline arbitrage economics to the USAC.

The arbitrage opened wide in February after several Texas refineries were brought down by unusually frigid temperatures. The USAC depends on gasoline from the US Gulf Coast, via the Colonial Pipeline, and from waterborne imports, primarily from Europe.

USGC refiners were operating at 83.1% of capacity the week ended April 2, according to the EIA. That was unchanged on the week, but up from just 40.9% at the height of the Texas outages the week ended Feb. 26.

Increased refinery runs helped boost USGC gasoline stocks last week by 838,000 barrels to 80.44 million barrels, putting stocks roughly on par with the five-year average, the EIA data showed.

But the largest inventory build was seen in the USAC, where stocks jumped 2.6 million barrels to 63.99 million barrels, also putting inventories are par with the five-year average.

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Apple, Inc

Edinburgh, Scotland: all school pupils between the ages of 10 and 18 are set to receive an iPad as part of the capital's "Edinburgh Learns for Life" program. Link here.

iPhones: Apple forecasted (sic) to sell record-breaking 240+ million iPhones in 2021. Link here.
the trajectory predicts 240+ million iPhones in fiscal year 2021;
would top a previous record of 231 million iPhones sole in fiscal year 2015;

Jon Stewart: to air on Apple TV+ this fall. Link here. I was curious where he would end up.

T-Mobile: launches unlimited 5G home internet for $60 month. Huge story, especially for the rural underserved. Link here.

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FWIW
 

Living dangerously: North Dakota legislature set to approve a ban on state-issues mask mandates. Link here. Neanderthals.

Bailout: North Dakota legislature set to fund a rail spur to help a troubled shipping center in Minot. Link here.

CLR Reports Another Nice DUC; Active Rigs At 15; Ovintiv Adds Five More Kramer Permits -- April 7, 2021

Active rigs:

$59.30
4/7/202104/07/202004/07/201904/07/201804/07/2017
Active Rigs1536625849

Five new permits, #38244 - #38248, inclusive --

  • Operator: Ovintiv
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Ovintiv adds five more Kramer permits to the five they added yesterday;
    • the permits for five Kramer wells to be sited in NWNE 18-150-97;
    • they will be sited 395' FNL and between 1544' and 1464' FEL

Seven permits renewed:

  • XTO (4): four Don permits all in McKenzie County
  • Rimrock (2): a Bloodaxe permit and an Ironside permit, both in Dunn County
  • Petro Harvester Operating Co: an LIG2 permit in Burke County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 32414, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212815574155552508068865678190
BAKKEN1-20213123738237442826559396589950
BAKKEN12-20203130896308033652263685632790
BAKKEN11-20202928375285214001051574512081
BAKKEN10-202016160821575422753270652685010
BAKKEN9-20201146146171300
BAKKEN8-202010022401160116
  • 33808, drl/A, BR, CCU Gopher 5-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, first production, t--; cum --;
  • 36253, loc/A, Slawson, Osprey Federal 4-26-29TFH, Big Bend, first production, t--; cum --

Today's News And Comment -- Wednesday, April 7, 2021

National Beer Day: celebrated every April 7th to recognize the day in 1933 when beer was legal for the first time since 1920. Can you even imagine that -- those six or seven years of "being dry”? Growing up, I always cheered for Elliot "Robert Stack" Ness but now that I'm older and wiser, even as a teetotaler, I'm now aware I was rooting for the wrong guy. Civil liberties trump government overreach.

Markets: was it a good day? I haven't looked at the closing bell yet. All I know is that my portfolio hit a new milestone. 

Rig counts don't matter (don't take that out of context). That's been an unchanging mantra for the blog for years. Now, with a new administration in Washington, and a new focus, one needs to ask: "For the average man on the street, does GDP really matter?" I'll talk about that later. Perhaps those paying attention to today's news will know why that question needs to be asked. 

Covid-19: "A moment of peril." Infections, after dropping precipitously during the last few months of the previous administration, are now starting to rise again, on Biden's watch. From The Washington Post. If that is so, that the Chinese flu cases are starting to rise, it will eventually hit all states (at least to some extent) but it must be noted that it hasn't been seen or felt yet, in Neanderthal country (Texas). Active cases in the Bismarck-Mandan region have more than doubled in the past two weeks. Any analysis at the source? Of course not. Probably due to "people moving about more." That's a quote from public health expert Gretchen Whitmer.

Dream Act? Any news?

COP: green shoots in Canada. Production expected to increase by 16%. See SeekingAlpha.

Biden backs off: all that talk about a crippling tax increase on corporations? That's all it was: talk. During the campaign, the threshold for minimum tax, $100 million in profits. Now, the threshold has been increased to $2 billion in profits. This will affect, maybe, .... see link at The WSJ -- 

  • $100 million-in-profit threshold: would affect 1,100 publicly traded companies
  • $2 billion-in-profit threshold: only 180 companies would meet the threshold and only 45 would pay the tax; 

Just remembered: need to see how the market did after "the Fed" spoke. Prior to Jay Powell's report this afternoon, WTI was down, and the US equity markets were flat to very slightly negative. After the report, WTI up slightly, but at least in the green. Equity markets: pretty much unchanged. Headline: stocks end mixed, with the S&P 500 and Dow hovering near record highs after Fed signals easy policy to continue during the recovery.

Texas relocations: relocations from San Francisco to Texas, Florida jumped between 32% adn 46% in 2020 -- source. Metro cities of choice: Austin, Dallas, Charlotte (North Carolina).

An interactive map shows that moves from the San Francisco metro statistical area to Texas increased 32.1% from 6,445 address changes in 2019 to 8,114 in 2020. 
The Dallas-Fort Worth MSA saw a 34.5% increase in transplants out of the San Francisco MSA from 1,966 moves in 2019 to 2,644 in 2020. 
The Austin MSA saw a 31.9% increase from 2,448 moves from San Francisco in 2019 to 3,230 in 2020. 
Moves from San Francisco MSA to Florida similarly increased 46.2% from 2,823 moves in 2019 to 4,126 moves in 2020.
The Miami MSA saw a 49.4% increase in San Francisco MSA transplants from 1,190 moves in 2019 to 1,778 in 2020.

Cushing: oil in storage down 2.9 million bbls vs one year ago, first time y-o-y deficit since July, 2020. That was the tweet; was it a deficit or a decline?

India: top buyer of US crude oil in February, 2021.

Israel provoking war in the Mideast. That's what some are saying. Others: simply tit-for-tat; nothing new; nothing to see here. 

Three hotspots and an also-ran:

  • Russia-Ukraine
  • China-Taiwan
  • Israel-the Mideast
  • North Korea-the world

Pentagon: my hunch -- US warfighters love Biden. Unlike his predecessor, Biden has real power to destabilize global hotspots. The Pentagon loves small regional wars. US warfighters are cracking open the contingency plans. 

Amazon: its digital ad market pales in comparison to Google and/or Facebook but it's still huge. Amazon's US digital ad market now accounts for more than 10% of the market. Market leaders: Google and Facebook. Link here

From social media today:


Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Huge Change In Jet Fuel Delivered Compared To One Year Ago -- Biggest Change In Past Year? April 7, 2021

FWIW, perhaps "Focus on Fracking" will discuss this in more detail this Sunday:

Weekly EIA petroleum report: to be released in about fifteen minutes. Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 498.3 million bbls; about 3% above the five-year average;
  • US crude oil decreased by a moderate 3.5 million bbls.
  • refiners operating at 84% operating capacity; not remarkable;
  • distillate in storage increased by 1.5 million bbls; about 5% above the five-year average;
  • jet fuel delivered was down 12% compared with same four-week period last year!

EIA: gasoline prices at the pump could hit 3-year high. Quick look:

  • PXD: confounding the experts; up almost 1%; up $1.22; trading at $152.60
  • ENB: down 0.3%; trading at $36.67;
  • EPD: up 0.4%; trading at $22.68;
  • KMI: up marginally; trading at $16.70;
  • HES: up a nice 1%; trading at $72;
  • EOG: very nice, up 1%; trading at $73;
  • CVX: nice, up 0.5%, despite downgrade; trading at $104;
  • COP: own 0.2%; trading at $52.50;
  • MNRL:down 1.5%; trading at $15.45
  • SRE: down a bit; trading at $133.67
  • AAPL: up 3/4th of a percent; up about a dollar; trading at $127; creeping quietly the wall of worry;
  • XLNX: up about 0.6%; trading at $131; special meeting today;
  • AMD: up about 0.5%; trading at $82; special meeting today;
  • UNP: trading up about 0.4%; trading at $222

After report:

  • WTI drops 30 cents; trading at $59.03

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Apple, Inc

Apple chips: supplier set to begin mass production ahead of schedule. Mass production of A15 chip for iPhone 13 set to begin ahead of schedule in late May.

The new chip will be based on an enhanced version of the 5nm process, which first debuted in the A14 Bionic with the 2020 iPad Air and iPhone 12 lineup. While the full report will likely offer more details as to the specifics of the new chip that will power the next-generation iPhones, it can be reasonably assumed that it will improve on performance and power efficiency.

Due to impacts to suppliers as a result of the global health crisis, Apple launched the ‌iPhone 12‌ series in October, out of the normal September timeframe. With impacts to supply chains now easing, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple is on track to release the iPhone 13 in September. With TSMC now believed to be starting mass shipments of the new chip ahead of schedule, that certainly does seem to be the case.
Apple "search": will drive services revenue growth through 2022. Link here. This was a much-discussed topic earlier this year. I thought it was going to become a "monopoly" issue for the US government. That talk seemed to go away once the new US president sworn in. Coincidence? I think not. Regardless, even if I have all that wrong, this is huge news for AAPL. Currently trading at $125, one year target for AAPL is $160.
In a research note shared with MacRumors, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said stronger licensing revenue is the primary driver of the raised estimates, including an acceleration in the search traffic-related payments Apple receives from Google. The New York Times last year reported that Apple receives an estimated $8-12 billion per year in exchange for making Google the default search engine on devices like the iPhone and iPad.

"Following strong March quarter App Store results and an analysis of the key drivers of Apple's Licensing & Other segment, we raise our already above-street FY21 and FY22 Services revenue estimates by 3% and 5% respectively, and are increasingly convinced that consensus Services forecasts over the next 2+ years are too low," wrote Huberty.

If APPL goes to $160 in the next twelve months, "Katy, bar the doors."  Price point to watch: $125.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

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College

Ivy League acceptance rates fall to record lows due to Covid-19.

The WSJ, link here

Harvard accepts just 3% of applicants, while Columbia admitted 4%, numbers rounded.

This Is Really Quite Disturbing: First It Was The Country Turning Blue, Now It's The Frogs -- April 7, 2021

I can't make this stuff up. Link here

Frog species turns blue for first time in 700 years.

A moor frog has turned blue in the UK for the first time in 700 years amid calls for the rare creature to be returned to Britain.

The frogs are widespread across Europe, and turn a distinctive shade of blue in Spring as they prepare to mate, from their natural muddy green colour.

They are not found in the wild in the UK, but some limited evidence suggests they lived in our wetlands 700 years ago. Now, a project funded by Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs board member Ben Goldsmith is aiming to "rewild" them to this country.

Staffordshire teenagers Harvey Tweats and Tom Whitehurst run Celtic Reptile and Amphibian, a company aimed at breeding extinct and rare amphibians and reptiles, with the home of returning some of them to our countryside.

They managed to get hold of some moor frogs from a Zoological Society of London reptile breeder, who is one of the few people in the country who keeps them in captivity.

They created a breeding enclosure in a plasterer's bath, and played sounds of males mating so they felt like they were surrounded by rivals, and turned bright blue. Normally, they do not turn fully blue in captivity as the sound of hundreds of rivals triggers the change.

Tweats, 17, told The Telegraph: "It's the first time one's gone fully blue in Britain for 700 years, it's a native species, it was found in Britain until about the 13th Century, there are fossils from the Saxon Period in East Anglia and historical references to it in the 13th Century.
Ah, yes, good olde East Anglia. We were stationed there for three years back in the late 1980s. This "frog story" is so British. Sort of takes our minds off other things, doesn't it.

Buyer's Remorse -- PXD -- April 7, 2021

PDX: buyer's remorse? Link here. At the bottom of the pack for the second day in a row, share price.

Active Rigs In The Bakken Jump From 12 To 15 -- Whoo-hoo! -- April 7, 2021

Commentary: if WTI can't hold above $60 and if Brent can't hold above $62, the entire oil industry is in deep trouble, but none more than Saudi Arabia. WTI at:

  • $60: US shale survives; huge pressure on Saudi Arabia;
  • $70: US shale thrives;
  • $80: US shale off to the races.

Commentary: price of oil -- since the 1970s, the rate of change in the price of oil is seldom  (almost never?) gradual one way or the other, and is almost completely unpredictable. Link here.  

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Post-Pandemic Boom and the Post-WWII Economic Boom

Perfect timing and in good company: yesterday I wrote -- 

In thirty-seven years of investing, I don't think I've ever been so excited to see earnings reports for 1Q21, and full year 2021 (we will have to wait quite awhile), and then the next several years after that, particularly E&P companies. I think one would have to go back to the years immediately after WWII to see something even remotely to what we're going to see over the next couple of years: coming out of a global lockdown, multiple stimulus bills, and then a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure bill. 

Today: Jamie Dimon said he's optimistic the pandemic will end with a US economic rebound; and the boom could easily run into 2023. Link here

Yesterday: IMF upgrades forecast for 2021 global growth to a record 6 percent. Link here

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Covid -19

Updates

Later, 11:15 p.m. CT:

Original Post

Perfect timing: yesterday a note about Neanderthals, Texas, and Covid-19 -- today this -- nearly half of all new virus infections are in just five states -- Texas -- called the Neanderthal state by the president is not one of them! Over at Yahoo!News:

New York, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Jersey together reported 44% of the nation's new COVID-19 infections, or nearly 197,500 new cases, in the latest available seven-day period, according to state health agency data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Total U.S. infections during the same week numbered more than 452,000.

The spike in cases has been especially pronounced in Michigan, where the seven-day average of daily new infections reached 6,719 cases Sunday — more than double what it was two weeks earlier. Only New York reported higher case numbers. And California and Texas, which have vastly larger populations than Michigan, are reporting less than half its number of daily infections.

Though Michigan has seen the highest rate of new infections in the past two weeks, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has said she does not plan to tighten restrictions. She has blamed the virus surge on pandemic fatigue, which has people moving about more, as well as more contagious variants. 

I wonder what her background in biology is?  There's a lot of "moving about" in California and Texas, and neither are on the five-state list. 

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Job Openings Surge; Hitting New Records

Links:

  • FX Street: JOLTS job openings rise to 7.2 million in February vs 6.9 million expected; and that was the worst month on record of global freezing;
  • Washington Post: US job openings rate hit record in February. The job openings rate — which is the number of available jobs as a percentage of the employed and the open jobs, combined — rose to 4.9 percent, the highest since the data was first tracked in December 2000. The WP says this is a "harbinger of healthy hiring and a hopeful sign for those looking for work." The article was written by Captain Obvious.
  • The Hill: job openings rose to two-year high in February. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$59.06
4/7/202104/07/202004/07/201904/07/201804/07/2017
Active Rigs1536625849

One well coming off confidential list -- Wednesday, April 7, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 85 for the year:

  • 37858, drl/drl, Red Trail Energy LLC, RTE 10.2, wildcat, formation target: AMSDEN; SWNW 10-139-92; see graphics below. Note: Amsden, Tyler, Heath -- perhaps not for purists, and not to be taken out of context -- these three formations are pretty much different names for the same general formation. See this post.

RBN Energy: clouds on E&Ps' horizon dissipate as industry fortunes brighten

Just one year ago, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic plunged the energy industry’s exploration and production (E&P) sector — already reeling from a steep decline in oil prices in late 2019 — into a memorably brutal spring that threatened its survival. Demand cratered, price realizations fell to the lowest point in a decade, and cash flows dried up. Sure enough, E&P results for the first half of 2020 were a train wreck, with the three-dozen companies we track reporting a whopping $45 billion in losses, including impairments. But the dark clouds hovering over the industry began to clear in the second half of the year as the combination of production cutbacks and recovering demand triggered rising prices.  With the massive price-related impairments largely in the rear-view mirror, year-end 2020 results revealed that most E&Ps had clawed their way back to near-profitability. Today, we review their latest numbers and preview what we expect will be a sunny 2021 for the industry.

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Red Tail Energy Wildcat