1Q21 Earnings Should Be Very, Very Interesting -- Exhibit A: COP -- April 6, 2021

Pardon the interruption! Wow, wow, wow -- our granddaughter's high school varsity women's soccer team advanced! The score just coming in now. At a neutral field in Mineral Wells, TX, our Grapevine team played the team from Abilene, TX. This was the sweet sixteen; they now move on to the quarter-finals. It appears to have been a blowout -- 2-0 at the half; 3 - 1 final score. Details pending. 

Now back to COP. Link here. In thirty-seven years of investing, I don't think I've ever been so excited to see earnings reports for 1Q21, and full year 2021 (we will have to wait quite awhile), and then the next several years after that, particularly E&P companies. I think one would have to go back to the years immediately after WWII to see something even remotely to what we're going to see over the next couple of years: coming out of a global lockdown, multiple stimulus bills, and then a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure bill. 

Back to the linked COP story. Data points:

• COP will report May 4, 2021;
• Concho Resources acquisition was completed in January, 2021;
• recently provided some preliminary operational and financial updates;
• reiterated CAPEX of $5.5 billion; an increase from their 2020 $4.7 billion;
• first quarter overall production estimate: 1.5 million boepd, excluding Libya;
• reported 1.3 million boepd 1Q20 (same quarter, last year)
• crude oil, 1Q21: 772K bopd; if so, would indicate a jump from 654K bopd a year ago;
• for boe:
  
• expects a 1Q21 average realized price range of $43 - $45 per boe; a year ago: $38.81
• also, a huge improvement over $33.21/boe in 4Q20;
• for crude oil:
• 1Q20: $56 - $58 / bbl
• a year ago: $48.86 / bbl
• 4Q20: $40.89 / bbl
• EPS:
• Zacks consensus estimate: 52 cents, a 16% y-o-y rise
• but, a $600 million profit hit due to Concho Resources acquisition