Sunday, March 4, 2018

This Is What The Bakken Is All About -- I Love This -- It Just Never Quits -- March 4, 2018

This is going to be interesting. Five QEP Otis wells come off the confidential list this week; all of them will be good wells; most of them will be great wells; some of them will be monster wells; and some will even be wells targeting the second bench of the Three Forks.
  • 33480, conf, QEP, Otis 6-28-33BHD, Grail, a huge well; 46K in first full month;  
  • 33478, conf, QEP, Otis 5-28-33BHD, Grail, a huge well; 45K in first full month;  
  • 33477, conf, QEP, Otis 1-28-33T2HD, Grail, a nice well; 23 K in best month so far; 
  • 33476, conf, QEP, Otis 28-33-32-29BHD, Grail, a nice well, but not great for the Grail; 30K in first full month;  
  • 33479, conf, QEP, Otis 2-28-33T2HD, Grail, a very nice well; 27K in first full month; 
The question, naturally, is how did the older producing Otis wells do (and were any of them re-fracked)? The older Otis wells in question (note: only four years old and they have produced an average of 370K bbls of oil and they are going to be producing for 30+ years with multiple re-works; re-fracks; and have multiple owners over those 30 years providing jobs for many, many hard-working folks in austere and harsh conditions):
  • 27702, 1,562, QEP, Otis 28-29-32-33LL, Grail, API - 33-053-05694; t7/14; cum 331K 1/18;
  • 26850, 1,861, QEP, Otis 4-28-33BHR, Grail, API - 33-053--05424; t7/14; cum 410K 1/18;
  • 26848, 1,530, QEP, Otis 3-28-33TH, Grail, API - 33-053-05422; t7/14; cum 333K 1/18; 
  • 26847, 1,855, QEP, Otis 3-28-33BH, Grail, API - 33-053-05421; t7/14; cum 405K 1/18; 
Here are the results of those four wells:

27702: steady production; never taken off-line; no jump in production;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

More later, perhaps.
Yes, I Know -- I'm Inappropriately Exuberant About The Bakken ...
... I Need More Self Control ...
... Especially At Night

Self Control, Laura Branigan

Not Only Is The Bakken Not Dead, It's Looking Better And Better Every Day -- March 4, 2018

Houston Biz Journal is reporting, "Libya? We're outta here!" Data points:
  • MRO has exited Libya; $450 million deal to sail away
  • a subsidiary of Paris-based Total will buy MRO's assets in the Waha concessions in Libya (and all the chaos and terrorism that comes with it)
  • MRO says it plans to narrow its focus on US shale
  • in November, 2015, the company announced it was planning to sell off at least $500 million in traditional exploration assets -- including the majority of its Gulf of Mexico assets
  • in March, 2017, MRO also announced deals to exit the higher-cost Canadian oil sands and enter the Permian Basin
  • bottom line: 95% of MRO's CAPEX and about 70% of its total production will now be associated with US resource plays, and expanding the margins of these plays in 2018
So much for all that talk about the lack of interest in Tier 2 and Tier 3 drilling locations and fringe areas in shale basins.


You Don't Own Me, Lesley Gore

The only thing "wrong" with this song: it's too short.

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 4, 2018

Note: over the past few weeks it is clear that a lot more wells are starting to come off the confidential list; still a lot of DUCs, but a lot of very, very good wells. Starting to see more and more results of pad drilling. 

Friday, March 9, 2018:33496, 2,362, Hess, BB-Ole Anderson-LW-151-95-3130H-1, Blue Buttes, 4 sections, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs; large/medium, a very nice well; t12/17; cum 47K 1/18;
33272, 1,304, Whiting, Nelson 11-18-2TFHU, Truax, 4 sections, 44 stages; 9.7 million lbs a very, very nice well; t9/17; cum 121K 1/18;
31293, SI/NC, Slawson, Serpent Federal 6-36-32TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
29521, 614, Oasis, Twobins 55-1 41-20 7B, Missouri Ridge, a nice well, 50 stages; 9.9 million lbs, mesh, large; t10/17; cum 68K 1/18;

Thursday, March 8, 2018:
33812, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 3H, Charlson, no production data, 
33705, 1,834, EOG, Round Prairie 27-1523H, Painted Woods, 4 sections, a very nice well for Painted Woods; 56 stages; 14.4 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t9/17; cum 114K 1/18;
33480, 1,320, QEP, Otis 6-28-33BHD, Grail, a huge well; 51 stages; 10.1 million lbs, mesh, medium, small; 46K in first full month; t9/17; cum 123K 1/18;
33478, 2,240, QEP, Otis 5-28-33BHD, Grail, a huge well; 51 stages; 9.6 million lbs, mesh, medium, small; 45K in first full month;  t10/17; cum 126K 1/18; 
33477, 2,116, QEP, Otis 1-28-33T2HD, Grail, a nice well; Three Forks 2nd bench; 51 stages, 10.1 million lbs; 23 K in best month so far; t10/17; cum 77K 1/18; 
32730, 1,183, Whiting, Keeling 31-13TFH, Truax, a very nice well; Three Forks, 42 stages; 9.4 million lbs; large, mesh; t9/17; cum 84K 1/18;
29522, 540, Oasis, Twobins 55-1 41-20 6T, Missouri Ridge; a nice well; Three Forks, 50 stages; 4.1 million lbs; mesh, large, medium, medium ceramic;  t10/17; cum 68K 1/18; 

Wednesday, March 7, 2018:
31994, 769, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 152-94-13A-24-15H, Antelope, a nice well;  t9/17; cum 59K 1/18; 
17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, a very nice well; t4/08; cum 247K 1/18; for more on this well, see this post;

Tuesday, March 6, 2018:
33479, 1,708, QEP, Otis 2-28-33T2HD, 4 sections, Grail, a very nice well, 51 stages; 10.1 million lbs; mesh/medium/small; 27K in first full month; t10/17; cum 80K 1/18;
33159, 1,171, Whiting, Irgens 41-17-3H, East Fork, a very nice well; 40 stages; 10.4 million lbs; t9/17; cum 107K 1/18;

Monday, March 5, 2018:
33476, 1,218, QEP, Otis 28-33-32-29BHD, Grail, a nice well, but not great for the Grail; 30K in first full month; t10/17; cum 80K 1/18;
33271, 1,783, Whiting, Nelson 11-18TFHU, Truax, 4 sections, a nice well; t10/17; cum 82K 1/18;
31292, SI/NC, Slawson, Serpent Federal 3-36-32H, Big Bend, no production data,

Sunday, March 4, 2018:
31491, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1A-7-4H, Charlson, no production data,

Saturday, March 3, 2018:
33160, 1,287, Whiting, Irgens 41-17-1HU, East Fork, a nice well; t9/17; cum 91K 1/18;
31995, 1,706, Bruin E&P, Fort Berthold 152-94-13A-24-16H, Antelope, 4 sections, a nice well; t9/17; cum 130K 1/18;

Fake News In Abundance -- The Apple Page -- March 4, 2018


Later, 10:39 a.m. Central Time: wow, great news. Apple will release a less expensive, and improved/upgraded MacBook Air, 2Q18, literally right around the corner. The MacBook Air is our favorite laptop: my wife has two -- one in California and one here in Texas so she doesn't have to take one on the airlines when she travels back and forth (she stays in touch with her iPhone and Apple Watch) while en route. It will be interesting to see what Apple has for an upgraded MacBook Air, perhaps the best computer when judged "bang for the buck." Plenty of slots for accessories (although those slots might go away in the new MacBook Air). 

Later, 9:57 a.m. Central Time: see first comment.
The steel tariffs are big winners in the states of Pennsylvania and Ohio. The steelworkers union has been asking for them for two generations, and only Trump delivered for them. Youngstown, Ohio, formerly a big Democrat locale, has been won over for Trump. The city of Pittsburgh, which voted for Clinton, had almost its entire environs voting for Trump in part because the Democrats so opposed Utica and Marcellus shale, which have been tremendous job creators in Western Pennsylvania. Trump is a big time hero in formerly Democratic strongholds, but the MSM won’t report that.
Original Post

We talked about the impact Trump's aluminum tariffs would have on Apple (it would add $4 to the cost of a $2,000 laptop).

Now, from Macrumors, more in(s)anity:
The controversial plan would almost certainly apply to Apple products like iPhones, iPads, and Macs, which contain a significant amount of the metals. The latest 15-inch MacBook Pro contains 740 grams of aluminum, for example, while the iPhone X contains 58 grams of stainless steel for its frame. [Note: significant? There are 28 grams in an ounce; and Apple, it has been reported, is considering moving to non-aluminum polycarbonate products.]

The details of Trump's plan aren't fully clear yet, however, according to Bloomberg News. If the tariffs only apply to raw materials, for instance, then Apple would be largely unaffected since the majority of its devices are assembled in Asia and shipped to the United States as finished products.

If the duties do apply to finished products, analyst Gene Munster speculated Apple's costs to make Macs and iPhones could rise as much as 0.2 percent, assuming the tax is a percentage of the steel and aluminum used in the devices.

Apple's domestic manufacturing is limited to the Mac Pro, assembled in Austin, Texas. The high-end computer contains 3,660 grams of aluminum and steel imported from outside of the United States, making it subject to the proposed tariffs. However, the Mac Pro is only produced in limited quantities.

The biggest question is whether the impact on Apple's profit margins would lead the company to raise the prices of Macs and iPhones, but given the company's costs are only estimated see a marginal increase, it would seem unlikely.  
I can't wait to read the comments.

Wow, What A Great Country

I drove our middle granddaughter to Olympic soccer development in Denton (Texas) earlier today and then found the nearest Applebee's to watch NASCAR.

I am always impressed with Applebee's menu and their friendliness. My tip is generally 50% or more than the meal cost. I justify it by:
  • it won't break me and it won't make the waiter rich;
  • the waiter, a college student, will greatly appreciate it;
  • the total bill for one is less than half what I would be paying for two more if my family were with me; and,
  • of course, the opportunity to watch NASCAR without being interrupted and people actually delivering food and drink to me while blogging and watching television.
What a great country.

During commercial breaks, I read Thomas Merton: The Seven Storey Mountain, An Autobiography  of Faith, c. 1998, one of the most famous books ever written about a man's search for faith and peace.

This is the second or third time I've read it. It full of pen and ink entries from earlier readings. I'm not into Catholicism or a monastic way of life or religious works, per se, but someone introduced me to this book years ago -- oh, yes, now I remember -- Merton's Prayer -- and it touched a nerve.

Much of the biography regards his time in Europe and England (Cambridge), places I visited many, many times before I joined the USAF and while I was serving in the air force.

Today, I am reading the several pages when he "converted" to Communism (with a capital "c"). He did not know why but he saw through it immediately. I am fascinated (and confused) why folks are taken in by Communism and it's interesting to read a respected and thoughtful writer on the subject.

From page 148:
It [Communism] was an easy and handy religion -- too easy in fact. It told me that all the evils in the world were the product of capitalism. Therefore, all that had to be done to get rid of the evils of the world was to get rid of capitalism. This would not be very hard, for capitalism contained the seeds of its own decay ...
... I don't think that even I was gullible enough to swallow all the business about the ultimate bliss that would follow the withering away of the state -- a legend far more naive and far more oversimplified than the happy hunting ground of the most primitive Indian.
I would write more but I need to go pick up our granddaughter.

Later: I got home in time to see the NASCAR finish, the last 70 laps. A nice uneventful race.

Wow, I Wish I Had Thought Of This

I may write about this again later. This is very, very clever on so many levels.

CNBC is reporting:  No-frills micro hospitals with as few as 8 rooms emerge as a new way to cut health-care costs.

The Daily Note

Fight's On: Let The Trade Wars Begin
Days 1 -- 31 -- this page

The 38 Days Following The Schumer Shut-Down

The 2 Days of The Schumer Shut Down

The Last 65 Days of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

March 31, 2018, T+31: "a thousand" Hondurans walking through Mexico to cross the US border.

March 30, 2018, T+30: quiet. Except for Tesla.

March 29, 2018, T+29: Looking for love in all the wrong places. Stormy Daniels, does anyone really care? But it makes for a great campaign song in 2020. For the other side.
Prince Salman wants "10 - 20 year alliance with Russia."

Looking For Love In All The Wrong Places, Johnny Lee

March 28, 2018, T+28: Commerce Dept says "citizenship" question will be asked in the 2020 census. This seems like a no-brainer. Trump continues to change-out appointees. Tillerson was one of the first to leave at the beginning of the second year. Then national security adviser General McMaster. Now, today, it's being reported that Trump has fired VA secretary David Shulkin and will replace him with Rear Adm Ronny Jackson.

March 27, 2018, T+27: it appears CBS hit a new low when it aired the "Stormy Daniels" interview. I did not see the interview; I did read the NY Times article, and if she used the same language in the interview that was used in the Times article it certainly was not going to be repeated in proper company. The story appears to have no legs. If the "affair" occurred, it happened between two consenting adults over a decade ago, and everyone agrees no laws were broken. It looks like this story has run its course. I have not watched any television today but the Dow is up almost 700 points. I'm sure talking heads have a million explanations but the one no one will mention: the Stormy Daniels CBS interview ends that story. 

March 26, 2018, T+26: listening to Scott Adams' podcasts (I guess he calls them "periscopes") on Twitter can be very, very painful to have to sit through to listen, but in a recent periscope -- wow, he nails President Trump exactly. Adams also opines on the omnibus bill: Trump got something "massively important" -- this message -- the US has a massive military and it's getting bigger, faster -- a huge psychological message just as Trump is getting ready to meet with Kim Jung Un (North Korea). On another note, the majority of those commenting at this WSJ article have it exactly right regarding Facebook and Cambridge Analytica.

March 25, 2018, T+25: Trump signs $1.3 trillion omnibus bill; Senator Schumer and Congresswoman Pelosi declare victory; the government continues to fund Planned Parenthood and there were no clean energy funding cuts.

March 24, 2018, T+24: I don't think "we" will ever comprehend how incredible it was for Trump to have defeated Clinton. The more one reads how rigged the election was; how deeply aligned the mainstream media was for Clinton; how much Clinton assumed she was going to win; how much her folks assumed she was going to win -- it really is amazing. It explains why the cupcakes, fruitcakes, snowflakes are still suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Here it is: more than one year later, two months after Trump's first SOTU address, they still remain in shock. One graphic summarizes it perfectly:

March 23, 2018, T+23: one and done. President Trump just lost his base. Signs $1.3 trillion omnibus bill that was strongly supported by Chuck "Shutdown" Schumer and Nancy "Pesky" Pelosi.

March 22, 2018, T+22: Great buying opportunity -- the Dow plunges 724 points. WTI down to $64.21. Wow, this will give the alt-left something to talk about -- President Trump will appoint John Bolton at his new National Security Advisor, replacing a really, really qualified military general officer. Oh, well.

Something To Talk About, Bonnie Raitt

March 21, 2018, T+21: Quiet.

March 20, 2018, T+20: Cognitive dissonance? Irony? One has to laugh. The alt-left on CNBC really, really want the market to collapse so they can "blame" it on Trump. Spite their nose ... If they were on a plane, and Trump was the pilot, they would hope he would fail?

March 19, 2018, T+19: as more and more comes out of the Mueller investigation -- with all the lying, leaking of the FBI (and perhaps others), it is now becoming clear to me that folks are perhaps underestimating how serious this really is. Think about this clip with Senator Schumer -- who would certainly know -- saying, to paraphrase -- the intelligence agencies of the US can "take out" the president of the US:

Also, at The Hill. This is simply terrifying -- that a US senator would believe this and not take action. Had this happened under the Obama administration ....

Mueller looking for collusion in all the wrong places. It turns out that Facebook was involved -- Facebook shares plummet 4 percent on Monday, March 19, 2018.

March 18, 2018, T+18: a second special counsel is needed. This one? To investigate Robert Mueller.

March 17, 2018, T+17: as they say in sports, things are starting to get "chippy"; more and more pressure for Mueller to be fired; it appears this is no longer a fact-finding case with regard to Russian collusion but simply a political story; Mueller won't have any evidence for Trump/collusion Russians; Mueller's / Dems best outcome -- Trump/FBI fires Mueller and that becomes the story; but with election just a few months down the road Mueller needs to be fired soon, otherwise opportunity lost; no idea how this will play out

March 16, 2018, T+16: Attorney General fires McCabe, deputy director, FBI, 26 hours before he reaches retirement milestone; won't get FBI pension; collusion with judge with re: Mike Flynn; things starting to unravel;

March 15, 2018, T+15: chief of staff John Kelly next to go?

March 14, 2018, T+14:
  • Mueller continue to fish; widens investigation, charges; less and less to do with Russian collusion and more to do with ensnaring
  • US House says no collusion between Trump and Russians
  • story of Trump involvement with prostitute has legs; CBS to report on 60 Minutes
  • market volatility continues; steel/aluminum tariffs cause consternation (compare with Bush failed tariff policy, March, 2002, to December, 2003
  • Trump "vetoes" Broadcom (Singapore/Chinese ties)-Qualcomm merger; Qualcomm considered "American treasure"; could affect Apple
March 13, 2018, T+13: lots of intrigue nationally and around the world --
  • Tillerson out at SecState
  • CIA director Pompeo takes over at SecState -- think about that  -- a government's top spy at State; Gina Haspel, one bad dude; joined the CIA in 1985
  • Trump names first woman to be CIA chief
  • anti-Putin Russian killed with nerve gas last week; Theresa May wants answers
  • second anti-Putin Russian found dead in Britain
  • Mideast peace conference convenes at White House
  • Trump visits "the Wall" in southern California
  • Trump's longtime personal assistant fired over security issues
March 12, 2018, T+12: Quiet.

March 11, 2018, T+11: President Trump's adversary, Pocahontas (Elizabeth Warren) actually agrees with Trump on tariffs. Hell is freezing over.

March 10, 2018, T+10: President Trump says he will go out to California -- his first trip to that state -- to inspect "the wall."

March 9, 2018, T+9:

March 8, 2018, T+8: apparently tariffs are going to go into effect -- against GOP rants and raves. Well done, Mr President -- goes ahead with tariffs -- but "spares" Canada and Mexico. Well played.

March 7, 2018, T+7: Gary Cohn resigns as President Trump's economic advisor. Is Jeff Immelt available?

March 6, 2018, T+6: North Korea says it would give up nukes ... and just six months ago the mainstream media said the US and NoK were ready to go to war. Obviously, no one trusts North Korea or what its real intents are, but if there is any truth to the NYT article, two things:
1) sanctions are starting to really, really hurt; and,
2) North Korea finally met a US president who wouldn't cave.
Over and over and over Trump is proved "right" on his hunches (including tariffs, gun shootings in school, and DACA) and yet even his own party won't support him. His party got the tax bill done -- but it certainly was not smooth sailing -- and now it's back to gridlock and no action. I guess politicians are now more concerned about their own re-election(s) a few months from now.

March 5, 2018, T+5: Oscars rating down 16%, may plumb all-time low! Early numbers suggest an 18.9 overnight rating from 8-11 p.m. ET, down 16% Y/Y. Last year's Oscars earned a 22.4 and drew 32.9M viewers, second-lowest total ever (though today's overnights don't yet reflect the end of the show with the biggest awards). An 18.9 rating suggests a viewership of 28 million. [Later: yup. An all-time low -- 26.5 million. Wow.]The 2008 show's 31.8M viewers drew the lowest viewership. Full numbers come from Nielsen later on. March 5th deadline for "Dreamers": six months ago, Trump set March 5th as the deadline -- and the Democrats? Nowhere to be found. Not interested in solving the problem.

March 4, 2018, T+4: the incredible Trump agenda -- what most Americans don't know -- the terrible war he has had to wage. Those tariffs that will raise the price of a soda by half a cent will pale in comparison to what four (4) Fed rate hikes will do this year. Jay Powell sent a letter of to Trump, thanking him for the coming trade war; it will take America's collective mind off the rate hikes.

March 3, 2018, T+3: Trump attends first Gridiron; first reports, very, very positive.

March 2, 2018, T+2:

March 1, 2018, T+1: fight's on! President Trump raises tariffs on steel 25% and on aluminum, 10%. The stock market plummets and everyone on Wall Street goes nuts. The unions in the US: beam.

Wrong Metrics Being Followed -- Auto / Light Truck Sales -- March 4, 2018

The other day the mainstream media reported auto / light truck sales for the month of February, 2018, noting that for most makes, total sales had declined month-over-month. And then you read the small print: sales of low-margin, small sedans fell significantly, enough to affect the bottom line in number of units sold, but the number of high-margin, light trucks and SUVs sold continued to surge.

Today, from Twitter:

SaudiLand (With Apologies To Disneyland)

March 4, 2018: mega-city / mega-resort / mega-tourist center -- Egypt-Saudi joint venture on Egupt's southern Sinai Peninsula; from Reuters
Egypt has committed more than 1,000 square kilometres (386 square miles) of land in the southern Sinai Peninsula to a planned mega-city and business zone unveiled by Saudi Arabia last October, a Saudi official told Reuters on Monday. The territory along the Red Sea is part of a joint fund worth more than $10 billion.
Prince Mohammed previously announced plans for the 26,500 square km zone, known as NEOM, at an international investment conference in Riyadh. Officials said public and private investment in the area was eventually expected to total $500 billion.
The mega-city, with its own judicial system and legislation designed to attract international investors, is to focus on industries such as energy and water, biotechnology, food, advanced manufacturing and tourism, according to officials.