Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Random Look At A Re-Entry, Re-Fracked CLR Bridger Well -- March 7, 2018

This is (another) great example of Bakken 2.0 and how traditional methods of "evaluating" an unconventional play simply don't work. It's my contention that Wall Street analysts have not yet noted this. One can be sure that the Saudis understand this as do the Russians. 

I track the Bridger wells here, though that page has not been updated in a long time.

The well:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, 33-025-00731, a very nice well; t4/08; cum 247K 1/18; 
Note the permit/file number -- #17089. This well was originally drilled back in 2008 -- before the Bakken boom hit its stride. This well was recently put back on the confidential list and today it comes off the confidential list.

As an aside, when I first started following the Bakken, I was told by a Bakken "expert" at another discussion group, that a North Dakota well could only be on the confidential list once. So much to learn. And I probably only know 1% of all there is to know.

So, what's going on? I don't know.

Let's explore together. As noted, the well has been producing since 2008. The first six months of production data:

BAKKEN9-200823351731071041309230920
BAKKEN8-20083141644350620341834180
BAKKEN7-200831544653461191403540350
BAKKEN6-20083042334102668309830980
BAKKEN5-200831742274541733536453640
BAKKEN4-2008309367982061000

Not very exciting, huh?

Now, look at this. Incredible, huh, for a re-entry, a re-fracked well?

17089:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201823125071208797521322912402827
BAKKEN12-201717801886246968988098800
BAKKEN11-20173016622169011990719639196390
BAKKEN10-20173122673219041694124616227151901
BAKKEN9-20172718302184651558919122161962926
BAKKEN8-20173127510274882742728501217386763
BAKKEN7-20175210220478371178851093
BAKKEN6-2017151923013063170317
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201663356448743366367

From the file report:

The newest data has not yet been scanned in by the NDIC. The cover page says the well is still confidential but I assume we will see the updated file in the next week or so.

The most recent geologist's report was received by the NDIC on October 3, 2016. It was spud September 17, 2016, and drilling ceased on September 19, 2016 or two days of drilling. From the file report:
  • the Bridger 44-14H is a horizontal re-entry well targeting the middle Bakken porosity
  • the rig started drilling ahead in the re-entry middle Bakken lateral at a MD of 20,845' on September 18th, 2016, at 9:44 p.m. CDT
  • gas ranged from 1,400 to 2,100 units 
From an earlier sundry form:
  • CLR planned to re-enter and deepen the existing lateral of the Bridger 44-14H; plans to extend the existing lateral by 336 feet to a TVD of 11,090 feet
  • that was an open hole frack with slightly more than a million lbs of sand
The sister well on the same pad as #17089:
  • 32740, 1,485, CLR, Bridger 10-14H2, Rattlesnake Point, 41 stages; 10.2 million lbs, t9/17; cum 137K 1/18;
The nearest well to the west of these two wells, on another pad, is:
  • 31847, 1,515, CLR, Bridger 9-14H1, Rattlesnake Point, 40 stages; 15.1 million lbs, t8/17; cum 125K 1/18; 
One can assume the re-entered Bridger 44-14H was fracked with a similar amount of sand.

Note the production profile. If one simply looks at the "IP test date" and the current date, one misses much of the story. According to the "IP test date" this well has been producing for eight months. In fact, only five months suggest some level of "unconstrained production":

Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20183122479225922909130923229098014
BAKKEN12-2017312503024856424722633525701634
BAKKEN11-201721350143528511512144468
BAKKEN10-20172818550186092393321854189962858
BAKKEN9-20173022351223863482727299207146585
BAKKEN8-20173133264331345136333145244508695
BAKKEN7-2017519011846591427118091
BAKKEN6-20172003148000

Aha! It just dawned on me. There's another way to find frack data. Let's see if FracFocus has any new data.

Yup, there it is, fracked 4/28/17 - 5/19/17.
  • water : 85% of total proppant by weight
  • water: 10,332,000 gallons
  • sand: 14.76% by weight
  • a gallon of water weighs 8.345404 million pounds
  • 10,332 million gallons of water weight 86.224714 million pounds
  • 85% of what = 86.224714 million lbs
  • 101.4408 million lbs total proppant (sand+water+all that other stuff)
  • 14.76% of 101.4408 = 15 million lbs of sand 
  • my numbers may be off a bit but the neighboring wells were fracked with 10 million lbs and 15 million lbs of sand
Comments:
  • with the exception of sand, there was very little additional cost to re-frack this well; the frack spreads were already in the area
  • in the process, CLR essentially got a new well
  • CLR did not have to drill a new well: it did not have to build a new pad; it did not have to pay a bonus for a new lease; it did not have to wait for permits; minimal cost in re-evaluating the well; developing design plans, etc
  • absolutely (well, almost absolutely) no risk of a dry hole (yes, a few re-entry wells are failures)
  • a lot of the extra cost of the sand and re-frack was already "covered" by fracking neighboring wells (I won't go through the details)
  • they simply drilled less than two more days, extending the horizontal in the process 
  • the Bakken 10,000 to 20,000 wells that are candidates for re-works; mini-refracks; re-entry - extension; big re-fracks; etc; and, that's even before we get to tertiary production (EOR)
  • and, yes, I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken

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