Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Shortage Of Truck Chassis In Los Angeles? Relevance To Global Economy? -- November 18, 2014

We spend a lot of time in southern California, San Pedro, specifically, across the freeway from the Port of Los Angeles and across the bridge from the Port of Long Beach; my wife's family settled there some years ago. The two ports, in San Pedro Harbor, have always fascinated me. 

The Los Angeles Times is reporting. First the background:
In recent years, the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports, which combined handle about 40% of all containerized freight for the nation, have faced rising competition.
A widening of the Panama Canal will allow larger ships from Asia to bypass the West Coast and deliver more goods straight to the East Coast.
In preparation, a number of ports on that side of the country are undergoing major expansions. The Jacksonville, Fla., port authority, for example, said recently that its Asian container shipments grew 20% this fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30.
Local officials estimate that about one-third of the incoming cargo gets distributed in Southern California, while another third travels along networks of rail lines, highways and warehouse facilities in the region before it begins its journey to other parts of the U.S.
The last third of the cargo is known as “discretionary”—it isn’t tied down to the Los Angeles-Long Beach network and might just as easily enter North America through other ports. Local leaders have been working hard to keep that last third.
It turns out for that recently there has been a "traffic jam" in the harbor and the ports:
For more than a month, a rotating cast of about a dozen container vessels, bulk ships and tankers has sat anchored just outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, some waiting as long as eight days to berth.
A year ago, no ships waited in line. “Until the middle of October everything was humming along nicely,” said Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, which keeps tabs on vessels arriving and departing and directs ship traffic.
Officials blame the congestion on a variety of issues: larger ship sizes that strain the capacity of the ports’ unloading resources, near-record volumes of goods trying to squeeze through the facilities as the economy improves, a shortage of truck chassis to haul away the cargo, and snarls caused by a reconfiguring of the local rail system.
Again, the four reasons cited:
  • larger ships that strain the unloading capacity;
  • near-record volumes of goods arriving at the ports;
  • a shortage of truck chassis to haul away the cargo; and,
  • snarls caused by a reconfiguring of the local rail system.
Of the four, the third one caught my attention.

Within the last few weeks, I forget when, I posted a note that a truck manufacturing facility on the west coast was rumored to be going to "mandatory overtime" due to the number of orders backlogged. The company specializes in specialized trucks and chassis.


The company also had a significant military contract for trucks.

The company's trucks are also seen in the Bakken, though a relative rarity compared to other names of which I am more familiar.

Maybe none of the dots connect. On the other hand maybe they do.

(By the way, I didn't pay much attention to the story or read more of it other than the headline, but I understand the Japanese stock market recovered today following the announcement that was going to delay the scheduled increase in the nation's sales tax. I think there were similar stories about a possible Chinese recovery with government stimulation.)

At Least It's Hard To Catch

ABC just tweeted:
New York City health officials investigating death of woman on Ebola monitoring list; authorities say woman did not have symptoms at last check.
New tweet:
Young woman, well below the age of 50; in perfectly good health; athletically fit sitting in beauty salon, slumps over due to heart attack.
Yeah, that happens.

[Uh-oh: I added the "new tweet, yeah that happens" at 6:38 p.m. November 19, 2014. Then I did a few other notes, and then came back to infowars and found this at 6:58 p.m. November 19, 2014:

NYC Woman on Ebola Watchlist Dies Bleeding From Mouth, Authorities Say “Heart Attack” Are suspected Ebola cases being covered up?

Something tells me the CDC is going to be all over this. The initial Ebolavirus test came back negative. Indeed, if she ... well, I'm not a conspiracy theorist ... a lot of 40-year-old women in perfectly good health in beauty salons keel over every day from heart attacks. Stuff happens. Gruberized. Scream loud and carry on.]

Snow -- Storm -- November 18, 2014

Without question, the story to follow tonight is the snowstorm in upstate New York. The New York governor's office just tweeted:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says state has activated 526 plows, 74 large loaders, 1,247 operators, 17 large snow blowers, 4 truck-mounted snow blowers due to snow storm.
I learned a long time ago: people don't care if it's 526 plows or 5,260 plows. They just want the roads cleared in front of their house and all the way to the nearest convenience store (that sells beer). They won't complain if they can't get into work.

Likewise, no one is going to care how many troops (boots on ground) are deployed to north St Louis if the city goes up in flames. 

For a newsaholic this could be the most exciting November I've seen in a very, very long time. Except perhaps when Goldwater lost to LBJ. Isn't November usually a quiet month? Thanksgiving. Black Friday. People trampled at Wal-Mart, but that's about it.

And I haven't even touched on:
  • the Israeli response to the terrorism/murders today
  • the OPEC meeting at the end of the month
  • more Russian troops in the Ukraine
  • more US troops in Iraq
The Wall Street Journal

Keystone vote fails in the Senate, lead story. Previously reported. 

Uh-oh for Honda: US wants nationwide recall.

US homebuilder confidence rose in November.

Traffic jam in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. This is very, very interesting. More on this at this post. A dot is connected. And it's possible the dot involves the Bakken.

Not to worry: undocumented immigrant population levels off in US; only 11 million. Numbers declined in 14 states; rose in 7 states:  Maryland, New Jersey, and Virginia were particularly "hard hit."

Farm industry pressuring POTUS to protect undocumented farm workers in his new immigration policy -- and that, I think, is one of the reasons POTUS is pushing immigration reform on his own. Follow the money. Two data points: large corporate farming needs these undocumented farm workers, and this president is the last president under which major "reform" is likely. By the way, I know I will surprise most of my readers but I support immigration reform. Like Obama, I'm following the money. The only thing I would change is that any increased costs would be borne by the top 400 wealthiest Americans regardless of annual income.

Like this will ever happen: privatizing FAA's air traffic control.

Interesting: a new invasive pest has Pennsylvania towns on alert: the fracking beetle the spotted lanternfly from Asia that can munch its way through vineyards and hardwood forests.

Economies across Asia face falling inflation rates. Central banks might cut interest rates to spur growth and help ease heavy debt burdens. If you are an investor, connect the dots.

Toyota unveiled a $57,000 fuel-cell car but you won't see one any time soon.

UPS, FedEx gird for an earlier rush. If you are an investor, connect the dots.

Nokia to release Android tablet.  What was Einstein's definition of insanity, again?

Heard on the street: oil and stocks -- the great debate.  I haven't read the article yet, but in the Bakken, it's not about profitability, it's about liquidity.

The Los Angeles Times

Bill to curb NSA surveillance DEFEATED in Senate.

California authorities say health insurers overstated number of ObamaCare doctors. I wish I had time to comment on this.

Didn't I just mention this up above; I hadn't even seen this story yet: as forces mass, German diplomat tries to head off Russia-Ukraine war. I bet that was a similar headline the Brits saw in their newspapers in 1938 when British Prime Minister Neville Champerlain made that historic speech. Peace for our time.

This is interesting: Orange County takes continuous-access approach on carpool lanes. It will gives the OC freeways more of a NASCAR feel.

And finally, Getty's newly acquired $65-million Manet, "Spring," to go on view, November 25th. And yes, I will be in California to see it. 

What a great country.

For The Record: This Is Stand-Alone Post #16,000; POTUS Won't Have To Veto Keystone XL Bill This Year -- November 18, 2014

Statistics by "blogger" -- Google -- reports this to be the 16,000th stand-alone post on this blog. There are five posts in "draft" but I doubt I will ever post them.

Results just in: the Senate did not pass the Keystone bill. 

Results of poll in which we asked whether you thought the Senate would pass the bill:
  • Yes: 53%
  • No: 40%
  • Who cares: 7%
It was on ABC News tonight -- I haven't seen the numbers. I assume it was one vote short.

Posting at Breaking News:
Louisiana Senate candidate Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-LA, on Senate Keystone vote: Democratic Louisiana Sen. Mary 'Landrieu's failure to pass' the bill 'is a perfect snapshot of her time as chair of the Energy Committee - a failure' -
I did not know she was the chair of that very important committee. Wow.  And she spoke up on energy issues less than 70% of the time. Posted earlier.

National Journal is reporting:
For Landrieu, it's another setback in an already low moment. Weeks away from Louisiana's Dec. 6 runoff election and trailing Rep. Bill Cassidy in the polls, Landrieu has hoped to use her steering of the measure through the Senate to infuse new life into her campaign. She got a boost from her party's top brass when they agreed to hold a stand-alone Keystone vote, a step they'd been loathe to take in the past.
And going into the vote, Landrieu had 59 assured supporter her motion, but—despite her assurances she could break a filibuster—it was never clear where she'd get number 60. Democratic Majority Whip Dick Durbin was seen as one of Landrieu's last options, but he voted 'no' on the bill.
I think I remember a House or Senate leader once saying never bring a bill to the floor that you didn't already know the results. Durbin voting "yes"? You have to be kidding. 

For more background to this story, watch the first three seasons of House of Cards, out on DVD, everywhere.

Global Warming Hits Buffalo, NY
I normally don't watch network television but tonight my wife called me in to watch the weather being reported in upstate New York. If this was the last storm of the season, it would be one thing, but they have to find a place to put all this snow (most of which may melt) before the next storm hits. It could be a long, long winter. It will be interesting to see the natural gas fill rate later this week.

Keeping Score

USA Today reports that Germany is now the world's "favorite country." USA falls to second place (under Obama's watch, USA Today might have added). After Ferguson blows, the USA could easily fall another notch or two.

For me, I would have voted Yorkshire (large county in north England) as my favorite country despite several "shortcomings":
  • it's not a country; at best it's a region, but technically a county;
  • it's part of England (not my favorite country);
  • everything shuts down after 6:00 p.m. and on Sundays; and,
  • too many tourists. 
Also high on my list would be Incirlik, Turkey, but again:
  • it's not a country; barely a city in the modern sense of the word;
  • it's part of Turkey (not my favorite country);
  • everything shuts down one month every year; and,
  • too many non-resident green-card aliens.
But just because Yorkshire or Incirlik might be my "favorite country," doesn't mean I would want to live there.

99 Balloons, Nena

Reservation Accounts For One-Third Of North Dakota's Oil Output -- November 18, 2014

In a story about a new bypass around New Town, North Dakota, this bit of trivia:
Oil production on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation accounts for one-third of the state’s daily output.  The money the MHA Nation receives from production is reinvested in the five segments on the Reservation, including the North Segment which includes New Town.  The new highway routes will open more opportunities for retail, light commercial and residential developments in the next two years.
A Note to the Granddaughters

I see that the Barnes and Noble bookstore in Sundance Square, the center of downtown and recently "renovated" Ft Worth, will close, or more precisely, has closed.

My wife and I love Barnes and Noble, going there, on average 1.5 times/week, and during the holiday season, probably twice a week on average. We go to the one in Southlake, TX, a bit northeast of Ft Worth.

Barnes and Noble is pretty much the only national brick-and-mortar bookstore left, I think -- Borders closed some time ago. I don't know how Barnes and Noble can keep going either. We support them all we can, including the $25 annual loyalty card that provides 10% discount on all purchases.

Yesterday, I found three books that I will buy for as holiday gifts (and I will buy a lot more before it's all over). At Barnes and Noble they are priced at $40; $29.95; and, $24.95 before the 10% discount; about $85.

At Amazon, the respective prices are: $24; $20.95; and, $19.95. And there will be enough in my shipment to get free shipping (I think free shipping now requires $75 but I could be wrong; I forget; but that won't be difficult); about $65. It's not a big savings, but that's only three items, and when I saw the $40 book going for $24 at Amazon .... 

Sixteen (16) New Permits; Good Lord! Whiting Has A Good Well; Fidelity (MDU) Reports A Huge Well In Stanley Area; November 18, 2014

  • Wells coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 26249, 894, Whiting, Karst 21-17-1H, Estes, t5/14; cum 29K 9/14;
  • 27190, 812, Fidelity, Minot State 34-33-28H, Stanley, "Bakken"; 2560 acres; 34 stages; 3.4 million lbs proppant; t6/14; cum 78K 9/14;
  • 27307, drl, BR, Copper Draw 21-27MBH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
  • 27890, 1,008, BR, CCU Olympian 11-2TFH, Corral Creek, t10/1;4 cum --

27190, see above, Fidelity, Minot State 34-33-28H, Stanley; "Bakken"; 2560 acres:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Active rigs:

Active Rigs185183187203160

Wells coming off confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 24755, 2,586, Statoil, Melissa 31-30 3TFH, East Fork, t10/14; cum --
  • 26531, 903, CLR, Jerry 4-8H, Poe, t11/14; cum --
  • 27982, 1,114, Statoil, Paulson 36-1 3TFH, Briar, t10/14; cum --
  • 28424, 2,302, Whiting, Good Shepherd 41-15-2H, Rawson, middle Bakken; 9-foot target window; 1,800 units average gas at one point; no frack data yet; two miles west of Rawson, ND; t10/14; cum -- ;
Sixteen (16) new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (6), KOG (5), Hess (2), Denbury (2), Hunt, 
  • Fields: Moccasin Creek (Dunn), Elm Tree (McKenzie), Burg (Williams), Juniper (McKenzie),Cedar Hills (Bowman), Zahl (Williams), Stoneview (Williams)
  • Comments:

Tuesday, ObamaCare And The Market -- November 18, 2014

Yesterday I posted this one-liner in response to my thoughts on ObamaCare:
On a side note, investors are going to do very, very well.
And wouldn't you know it, here it is. Reuters is reporting:
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending at records as healthcare shares advanced and optimism grew about the global economy.
As much as I dislike ObamaCare, it was clear to me about a year ago that the health care industry was going to do very, very well. Yesterday the NYT reported that Big Health and Big Government are mutually benefiting from ObamaCare, and now the Dow hits new records, to some extent on the shoulders of healthcare.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.


I find it interesting that perhaps the biggest story of the day received almost no attention: fracking allowed in the nation's largest forest in the eastern US. Post here

Random Update / Frack Data For Whiting Privratsky Wells In Zenith Oil Field, November 18, 2014

Earlier the frack data was not available; frack data is now available for one of the three wells:
  • 25467, 1,821, Whiting, Privratsky 11-27PH, Zenith, Three Forks (Pronghorn), no frac data, t3/14; cum 79K 9/14;;
  • 25468, 1,920, Whiting, Privratsky 21-27PH, Three Forks (Pronghorn), no frac data, t3/14;cum 101K 9/14;
  • 25469, 2,272, Whiting, Privratsky 41-27PH, Zenith, Three Forks (Pronghorn), 40 stages; 3 million lbs sand; t3/14; cum 107K 9/14;

Huge Producer Back On Line, CLR's Spry Well In Cedar Hills, November 18, 2014

November 18, 2014: a huge CLR North Red River B well back on active status; looks like some type of workover in May/June, 2014, when there was no production; off-line from mid-April to mid-July, 2014; a huge producer back on line.
  • 16529, 100, CLR, Spry 11-13NH, Cedar Hills, a North Red River B well, t8/07; cum 405K 9/14;

Random Update Of Two EOG Wells In Parshall Oil Field, November 18, 2014

Note these very low IPs for EOG in the Parshall; these wells were noted in the July 28, 2014, daily activity report, but on November 18, 2014, when re-checked, they were both back on confidential, and no IP was provided at the NDIC site:
  • #27441 - EOG RESOURCES, INC., PARSHALL 65-14H, NWNW 14-152N-90W, MOUNTRAIL CO., 446 BOPD, 2354 BWPD - BAKKEN
    #27442 - EOG RESOURCES, INC., PARSHALL 66-14H, NWNW 14-152N-90W, MOUNTRAIL CO., 394 BOPD, 2376 BWPD - BAKKEN
  • 27441, 446, EOG, Parshall 65-14H, Parshall, short lateral, t7/14; from the file report, after reaching TD, gas reached a max of 10,000 units as the well began to flow; no production data; no frack data when first posted on July 30, 2014;
  • 27442, 394, EOG, Parshall 66-14H, Parshall, short lateral, t7/14; no production data, no frack data when first posted on July 30, 2014
Regardless, here are the production numbers to data:

For 27741:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

For #27742:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Hell Just Froze Over: The Feds Will Allow Fracking In Nation's Largest Forest In The Eastern United States -- November 17, 2014

The AP is reporting:
Environmentalists and energy boosters alike welcomed a federal compromise announced Tuesday that will allow fracking in the largest national forest in the eastern United States, but make most of its woods off-limits to drilling.
The decision was highly anticipated because about half of the George Washington National Forest sits atop the Marcellus shale formation, a vast underground deposit of natural gas that runs from upstate New York to West Virginia and yields more than $10 billion in gas a year.
The federal management plan reverses an outright ban on hydraulic fracturing that the U.S. Forest Service had proposed in 2011 for the 1.1 million-acre forest, which includes the headwaters of the James and Potomac rivers. Those rivers feed the Chesapeake Bay, which is the focus of a multibillion-dollar, multistate restoration directed by the Environmental Protection Agency.
This is a bigger deal than the vote on the Keystone.

Note: the environmentalists have a completely different take on it but the fact remains:
The final forest plan released Tuesday includes differences from the Forest Service’s draft plan for the area. The draft plan, for example, would have banned the use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing — or ‘fracking’ — techniques in the national forest, a provision that the oil and gas industry strongly opposed. Industry groups argued this provision would set a precedent for prohibiting fracking techniques in other national forests.
Robert Bonnie, U.S. Department of Agriculture Undersecretary for Natural Resources and the Environment, said, “from a policy perspective, the Forest Service allows fracking on forest lands throughout the country. We didn’t want to make a policy decision or change policy related to fracking. This decision is about where it’s appropriate to do oil and gas leasing.”
Two more years. 

Will Ms Landrieu / Keystone Get 60 Senate Votes? -- November 18, 2014

I don't think they've held the Senate vote yet on the Keystone. Time for a quickie.

But, first the results of the most recent quickie, in which we asked, "do you support extension of the wind energy tax credit?"
  • Yes: 11%
  • No:  58%
  • Are you kidding? 31%
Now, for the new poll. Will Ms Landrieu get the 60 Senate votes she needs?

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Global warming slams upstate New York: photos here (the link may be dynamic). 

For Investors Only

Dow hits record. Again. I think the Dow has "gone up" eight days in the past nine. "Climbing the wall of worry." WTI oil down over 1% and now under $75.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

UNP is up slightly, but probably won't hit a new high.

What about that HAL-BHI hook-up? BHI is down slightly, at at $65 is well below the $78 HAL is offering to pay. Speaks volumes.

SRE is also up slightly, but has a few bucks to go before hitting a new high. Natural gas is down 14 cents (at Bloomberg) but still above $4.00.

The railroad and energy company BRK-B is up almost a buck and flirting  with new highs. In February, 2010, Warren Buffett's purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad was approved by stockholders. It's interesting to look at the BRK-B graph for the past five years.

A long list of companies trading at new highs: AET, CAH, ETP, EW, MMM, WMT. None of which I have ever invested in. Except one. Maybe two.

How Important Was The Keystone To Ms Landieu?

She did not speak up at 70% of energy hearings ... just saying...

We might see a vote tonight...

Global Warming 2014 - 2015

The unnamed 2014 autumn polar vortex: the headlines started appearing November 11, 2014:

  • Minnesota shatters snow record from 1898 -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow 
  • Arctic blasts pummels USA -- unexplained; stuff happens 
  • Only six (6) states not expecting snow in coming week (and one of them may be Hawaii) 
  • Winter still a month away 
  • Twelve (12) years since Dallas has had two consecutive days so cold  
  • Wyoming wind chill warning: 35 below  
  • Central Ontario snowfall could reach 20 inches  
  • Cold to freeze East  
  • Shattering snowfall records in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan -- predicted by warmists -- global warming will result in more snow 
  • All 50 states brace for freezing temperatures -- November 13, 2014 
  • Cold freeze moves east -- November 13, 2014 
  • Denver cold shatters two records, including low temp record set in 1882 -- November 13, 2014 
  • Coldest November in decades -- November 14, 2014 
  • Michigan town receives one month's snow -- in one day --November 14, 2014 
  • Storm dumps four (4) feet of snow on Wisconsin town -- November 14, 2014 
  • Ice on Lake Superior -- almost a month early -- November 16, 2014 
  • Harsh cold to set records in south, freeze northeast -- November 16, 2014
  • Snow on the ground in DFW area; 27 degrees -- November 17, 2014 
  • 50% of nation covered in snow -- November 17, 2014 (this was on ABC Nightly News, also)
  • Most snow this early in a decade -- November 17, 2014
  • Four (4) feet of snow expected in upstate New York -- November 17, 2014
  • Record cold in Boise, Idaha, Monday morning, possibly again Tuesday -- November 17, 2014
  • Deep freeze blankets USA -- November 18, 2014
  • Coldest November morning since 1976 -- November 18, 2014
  • 1,360 records shattered in one week -- November 18, 2014
  • "Global warming" activists huddle together together in Capitol -- November 18, 2014
  • I-90 closed in Buffalo, NY; snow -- November 18, 2014
  • Buffalo, upper NY state gets slammed -- November 18, 2014
  • 74 inches of snow predicted overnight in Buffalo, NY -- November 18, 2014 
  • Cuoma deploys organized militia (National Guard) -- November 18, 2014
Lookin' Out My Back Door

Lookin' Out My Back Door, Creedence Clearwater Revival

Four Of Five Wells Going To DRL Status -- North Dakota Bakken, November 18, 2014

IPs for wells coming off confidential list have been posted; 4/5 of wells go to DRL status.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs184183187203160

RBN Energy: the diluent trail across Canada, part 5.
Got Something To Hide?

Wind farm sues to block release of dead eagle count:
Using documents, emails and interviews with former wildlife officials, the AP in articles published last year documented more than four dozen eagle deaths in Wyoming since 2009, and dozens more in California, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington and Nevada. Corporate surveys submitted to the federal government and obtained by AP showed at least 20 eagles found dead in recent years on Pacificorp wind farms in Wyoming.
Folks are worried about the sage grouse which is getting about as much protection as it possibly could, and President Obama gave blanket immunity to wind farm corporations found to be killing eagles and whooping cranes.

Got Something To Ride?

BNSF’s rail traffic in North Dakota is at an historic high, with outbound train volume up by nearly 200 percent since 2009 and inbound up nearly 120 percent.
The remarkable train volume — a train every 45 minutes through New Salem, on average — carries everything from grain commodities to construction materials to crude oil in North Dakota’s multifaceted boom economy.
Memo to self: send another thank you letter the folks in Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa.  Folks in New Salem need to send a letter to POTUS (see next item).

Reuters On POTUS and The Keystone

Reuters via Rigzone has a long article on why President Obama is "at least" half-wrong on the Keystone. There is way too much to provide even a paragraph; the article needs to be read in whole by those who don't understand the argument. I assume regular readers do.

Having said that, the writer fails to provide the history back to 1995 regarding the reasons for the
industry's need for the Keystone pipeline. The writer leaves out a lot but "at least" it's a start.

And again, Reuters would not have posted this article prior to the mid-term elections. Everyone is living in a post-Obama world; folks are saying things now that they haven't said in years, as they start to move POTUS off center stage of this three-ring circus.

For another example, it appears that Starbucks-drinking, Obama-apologist, Joe Scarborough is even starting to turn.