Monday, May 10, 2021

Well, This Can't Be Good -- North Carolina -- May 10, 2021

It begins. Folks start hoarding gasoline by keeping their SUVs full. 

North Carolina declares state of emergency over Colonial Pipeline outage (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/north-carolina-declares-state-of-emergency-over-colonial-pipeline-outage).

I'm not sure what "a state of emergency" will accomplish but having lived through the OPEC embarco back in 1973 - 1974 out in California, I know exactly how to minimize shortages in current situation. But I've learned that years of experience, common sense, and $2.95 will get me a coffee at Starbucks, not interested in further discussion. LOL. Bottom line: it's not rocket science and impact can easily be managed.

Apparently there are also reports of service stations running out of gasoline in NYC.  Just in time for the "grand re-opening" on May 17, 2021.

ADM To Build North Dakota's First-Ever Dedicated Soybean Crushing Plant and Refinery -- May 10, 2021

I've never "understood" Spiritwood, ND. There must be some highly civic-minded, entrepreneurial business leaders and farmers -- Spiritwood seems to pop up frequently when it comes to "production" facilities of some sort. I honestly don't know what it's all about. From wiki, the Spiritwood Industrial Park:
In 2007, ground was broken on a coal-fired cogeneration power plant, built by Great River Energy in Spiritwood Industrial Park. The industrial park, planned and funded the year before, was built coincidental to expansion of the nearby Cargill Malt plant and construction of the power/steam plant was predicated on a co-located ethanol plant. 
After construction was completed in 2011,the power plant was idled due to the recession, and need for a second steam partner (Cargill Malt being the first), after plans for the original ethanol plant fell through. In 2013, Great River Energy began construction on its own co-located ethanol plant, which would utilize the extra steam capacity of the power plant. 
The economic upturn and the promise of a second end-user for waste steam prompted the power plant to begin commercial operations in 2012. Construction of the ethanol plant was finished in July, 2015. The construction of the ethanol plant was financed, in part, with a $75,000,000 EB-5 investment, managed by CMB Regional Centers. The ethanol plant began production in June, 2015, and produced 65 million gallons of ethanol in its first year.
So, now we have this story from businesswire:
ADM today announced its plan to build North Dakota’s first-ever dedicated soybean crushing plant and refinery to meet fast-growing demand from food, feed, industrial and biofuel customers, including producers of renewable diesel. 
Based in Spiritwood, ND, the approximately $350 million crush and refining complex will feature state-of-the-art automation technology and have the capacity to process 150,000 bushels of soybeans per day. 
Strategically located in a major soybean producing area, ADM’s global logistics network will enable the facility to access both domestic and global markets for soybean oil and meal. The facility is expected to be complete prior to the 2023 harvest.

Well, This Can't Be Good -- Pemex -- May 10, 2021

Link to Bloomberg here.
  • cash-strapped Pemex delays payments to some private oil partners;
  • Pemex output has dropped for sixteen straight years;
  • Pemex owes Cheiron and Hokchi about 464 million for oil, gas

From the linked article:

Petroleos Mexicanos is racking up millions of dollars in late payments to oil companies as it struggles to generate cash amid skyrocketing debt and weaker crude sales.

While Pemex has long sought to stretch its cash further by delaying payments to contractors, people with knowledge of the situation say it’s now also deferring reimbursement to some partner companies in an effort to postpone spending money that’s in increasingly short supply. Some private oil companies in Mexico sell their barrels to Pemex to mix with its own hydrocarbons for export because they lack the infrastructure and scale to sell the crude on their own, the people said, declining to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak to the media.

Well, This Can't Be Good -- Hydrogen -- May 10, 2021

A thousand-mile journey begins with one step. --- ancient Chinese proverb. 

From social media and google:




No New Permits; Active Rig Count Steady At 17; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 10, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.92
5/10/202105/10/202005/10/201905/10/201805/10/2017
Active Rigs1719666050

No new permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36813, drl/A, Whiting, Dwyer 31-27-3H, Rawson, first production, 2/21; t--; cum 55K 3/21;
  • 37052, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree, first production, ; t--; cum --;

The MRO Shobe Mega-Pad

The well:

  • 36920, F/A, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 239K 3/21; is anyone paying attention? Fracked 9/30/20 - 10/14/20; 11.1 million gallons water; 66.2% water by mass; 18.3% produced water by mass; Three Forks Second Bench; 24-hour oil: 4,336; 52 stages; 265K bbls volume; 16.92 million lbs proppants;

Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213137204372322936954912527030
BAKKEN2-20212731676316192477555989515472476
BAKKEN1-20213143625438824268363465608600
BAKKEN12-20203166239663207175386498825510
BAKKEN11-20202160451595837136064793612630
BAKKEN10-2020400306000

We've looked at this mega-pad on numerous occasions but have never linked it at the sidebar as an MRO pad. This is where the wells will be tracked. This is all in progress. 

The mega-pad:

  • 36921, Vickall USA,
  • 36922, Lang USA,
  • 36923, Thorson USA,
  • 37323, Oscar Thorson USA,


  • 36919, Klemstead USA, 
  • 36918, Kolbo USA, ]
  • 37515, Pelarske USA, 
  • 18692, Jasper L USA,
  • 36920, Adonijah USA,
  • 18693, Betty Shobe

Production:

36921: Vickall USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20211918070181501152134605334840
BAKKEN2-20212828996294612280360638578411020
BAKKEN1-20213159335587613574496795932620
BAKKEN12-20202829028296182188841010392720
BAKKEN11-2020204652045615445045955356518271
BAKKEN10-202020088989188

36922: Lang USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213123673236312904075221736390
BAKKEN2-20212827922279882452762227592511254
BAKKEN1-20213131653317823043447235453630
BAKKEN12-20203055580554865119873570702600
BAKKEN11-2020826150265392202530526289830
BAKKEN10-202017645056360767387679184402020158

36923: Thorson USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2021312119321178151164386142100408
BAKKEN2-20212822299222861546541129397460
BAKKEN1-20213133596337702420050432484180
BAKKEN12-2020316195061982457477814874423117
BAKKEN11-2020214773747558409116226759299342
BAKKEN10-202082157521282191472130218886114

37323: Oscar Thorson USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2021312417424228236775167049621498
BAKKEN2-20212831160311312924756126541990
BAKKEN1-20213145678457324344669958672150
BAKKEN12-20202958376579616089476880734710
BAKKEN11-2020006760000
BAKKEN10-202018498704919471407629074352516447

36919: Klemstead USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213132820326733721957616556390
BAKKEN2-20212618695186662938227100248141150
BAKKEN1-20213126124261404324737667361080
BAKKEN12-20203028054282964867038494368160
BAKKEN11-20202240073394988963853394510190
BAKKEN10-202020030800

36918: Kolbo USA:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213041959419532479395857932620
BAKKEN2-2021193376233987193234703544861122
BAKKEN1-20213170051697194264699144949700
BAKKEN12-20202843615438733437457226546260
BAKKEN11-20202054049541026704267815646250
BAKKEN10-202071777816949278941769514901176

37515: Pelarske USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213137318371463624261626593900
BAKKEN2-20212620987209462796229016264991247
BAKKEN1-20213128679287383706540541388320
BAKKEN12-20203034288345484656345357433120
BAKKEN11-20202146434471636045457867551280
BAKKEN10-20201029949285534113839322324025159

18692: Jasper, off line and inactive:

BAKKEN3-202025175922545952386992041
BAKKEN2-20202920282041954277011311353
BAKKEN1-202015105011221601412431838
BAKKEN12-2019271801181531627801803715
BAKKEN11-2019307156401161214556451
BAKKEN10-2019311642158832324651934251
BAKKEN9-2019301534136331923301682383
BAKKEN8-2019311760173240126231975365

36920: Adonijah, USA, above:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20213137204372322936954912527030
BAKKEN2-20212731676316192477555989515472476
BAKKEN1-20213143625438824268363465608600
BAKKEN12-20203166239663207175386498825510
BAKKEN11-20202160451595837136064793612630
BAKKEN10-2020400306000

18693: Betty Shobe USA, first drilled in August, 2010:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202119295629762158118299322
BAKKEN2-20212853965375379110137140
BAKKEN1-2021263894385328406944780
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20202513591758693152701303

Best Headline Ever? Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas -- May 10, 2021

Do you remember this essay from April 30, 2021: Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas.

Quick! Name the country that is the poster child for windmills: the Netherlands.

Quick! Name the country that is the poster child for ethanol: Brazil.

And then we get this story: Brazil is on track to import a record volume of LNG this year because of persistent dry weather coupled with the commissioning of new LNG-to-power projects. Link here

***************************
Covid Hesitancy

CDC data here.

No columns or rows hidden. All data from April 26, 2021, to the present.



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days

Monday

May 10, 2021

329,843,825

0

261,599,381

1,882,392

79.31%

17,334,250

2,117,025

Sunday

May 9, 2021

329,843,825

3,770

259,716,989

2,369,784

78.74%



Saturday 

May 8, 2021

329,840,055

2,715,430

257,347,205

2,567,872

78.02%



Friday

May 7, 2021

327,124,625

2,514,440

254,779,333

2,805,581

77.88%



Thursday

May 6, 2021

324,610,185

3,060,850

251,973,752

2,406,932

77.62%



Wednesday

May 5, 2021

321,549,335

3,075,300

249,566,820

1,797,771

77.61%



Tuesday

May 4, 2021

318,474,035

5,964,460

247,769,049

988,846

77.80%



Monday

May 3, 2021

312,509,575

0

246,780,203

1,188,734

78.97%

21,817,570

2,287,393

Sunday

May 2, 2021

312,509,575

1,370

245,591,469

2,127,998

78.59%



Saturday

May 1, 2021

312,508,205

3,734,050

243,463,471

3,303,794

77.91%



Friday

April 30, 2021

308,774,155

3,295,660

240,159,677

2,799,184

77.78%



Thursday 

April 29, 2021

305,478,495

3,620,610

237,360,493

2,721,079

77.70%



Wednesday

April 28, 2021

301,857,885

4,314,250

234,639,414

2,231,745

77.73%



Tuesday

April 27, 2021

297,543,635

6,851,630

232,407,669

1,639,215

78.11%



Monday

April 26, 2021

290,692,005

0

230,768,454

2,107,046

79.39%

26,186,280

2,741,021