Well, This Can't Be Good -- North Carolina -- May 10, 2021

It begins. Folks start hoarding gasoline by keeping their SUVs full. 

North Carolina declares state of emergency over Colonial Pipeline outage (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/north-carolina-declares-state-of-emergency-over-colonial-pipeline-outage).

I'm not sure what "a state of emergency" will accomplish but having lived through the OPEC embarco back in 1973 - 1974 out in California, I know exactly how to minimize shortages in current situation. But I've learned that years of experience, common sense, and $2.95 will get me a coffee at Starbucks, not interested in further discussion. LOL. Bottom line: it's not rocket science and impact can easily be managed.

Apparently there are also reports of service stations running out of gasoline in NYC.  Just in time for the "grand re-opening" on May 17, 2021.

ADM To Build North Dakota's First-Ever Dedicated Soybean Crushing Plant and Refinery -- May 10, 2021

I've never "understood" Spiritwood, ND. There must be some highly civic-minded, entrepreneurial business leaders and farmers -- Spiritwood seems to pop up frequently when it comes to "production" facilities of some sort. I honestly don't know what it's all about. From wiki, the Spiritwood Industrial Park:

In 2007, ground was broken on a coal-fired cogeneration power plant, built by Great River Energy in Spiritwood Industrial Park. The industrial park, planned and funded the year before, was built coincidental to expansion of the nearby Cargill Malt plant and construction of the power/steam plant was predicated on a co-located ethanol plant. 

After construction was completed in 2011,the power plant was idled due to the recession, and need for a second steam partner (Cargill Malt being the first), after plans for the original ethanol plant fell through. In 2013, Great River Energy began construction on its own co-located ethanol plant, which would utilize the extra steam capacity of the power plant. 

The economic upturn and the promise of a second end-user for waste steam prompted the power plant to begin commercial operations in 2012. Construction of the ethanol plant was finished in July, 2015. The construction of the ethanol plant was financed, in part, with a $75,000,000 EB-5 investment, managed by CMB Regional Centers. The ethanol plant began production in June, 2015, and produced 65 million gallons of ethanol in its first year.

So, now we have this story from businesswire:

ADM today announced its plan to build North Dakota’s first-ever dedicated soybean crushing plant and refinery to meet fast-growing demand from food, feed, industrial and biofuel customers, including producers of renewable diesel. 

Based in Spiritwood, ND, the approximately $350 million crush and refining complex will feature state-of-the-art automation technology and have the capacity to process 150,000 bushels of soybeans per day. 

Strategically located in a major soybean producing area, ADM’s global logistics network will enable the facility to access both domestic and global markets for soybean oil and meal. The facility is expected to be complete prior to the 2023 harvest.

Well, This Can't Be Good -- Pemex -- May 10, 2021

Link to Bloomberg here.

• cash-strapped Pemex delays payments to some private oil partners;
• Pemex output has dropped for sixteen straight years;
• Pemex owes Cheiron and Hokchi about 464 million for oil, gas

From the linked article:

Petroleos Mexicanos is racking up millions of dollars in late payments to oil companies as it struggles to generate cash amid skyrocketing debt and weaker crude sales.

While Pemex has long sought to stretch its cash further by delaying payments to contractors, people with knowledge of the situation say it’s now also deferring reimbursement to some partner companies in an effort to postpone spending money that’s in increasingly short supply. Some private oil companies in Mexico sell their barrels to Pemex to mix with its own hydrocarbons for export because they lack the infrastructure and scale to sell the crude on their own, the people said, declining to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak to the media.

Well, This Can't Be Good -- Hydrogen -- May 10, 2021

A thousand-mile journey begins with one step. --- ancient Chinese proverb. 

From social media and google:

No New Permits; Active Rig Count Steady At 17; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 10, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.92	5/10/2021	05/10/2020	05/10/2019	05/10/2018	05/10/2017
Active Rigs	17	19	66	60	50

No new permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36813, drl/A, Whiting, Dwyer 31-27-3H, Rawson, first production, 2/21; t--; cum 55K 3/21;
• 37052, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 5-16H2, Elm Tree, first production, ; t--; cum --;

The MRO Shobe Mega-Pad

Locator: 44700SHOBE.  

The well:

• 36920, 4,336, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 239K 3/21; is anyone paying attention? Fracked 9/30/20 - 10/14/20; 11.1 million gallons water; 66.2% water by mass; 18.3% produced water by mass; Three Forks Second Bench; 24-hour oil: 4,336; 52 stages; 265K bbls volume; 16.92 million lbs proppants; cum 508K 11/22; cum 532K 3/23;
  

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	37204	37232	29369	54912	52703	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	27	31676	31619	24775	55989	51547	2476
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	43625	43882	42683	63465	60860	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	66239	66320	71753	86498	82551	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	21	60451	59583	71360	64793	61263	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	4	0	0	306	0	0	0

We've looked at this mega-pad on numerous occasions but have never linked it at the sidebar as an MRO pad. This is where the wells will be tracked. This is all in progress. 

The mega-pad:

• 36921, Vickall USA, t11/20; cum 234K 9/21; cum 279K 11/22; cum 284K 3/23;
  
• 36922, Lang USA, t10/20; cum 295K 9/21; cum 357K 11/22;
  
• 36923, Thorson USA, t10/20; cum 276K 9/21; cum 356K 11/22;
  
• 37323, Oscar Thorson USA, t10/20; cum 282K 9/21; cum 363K 11/22;
  

• 36919, Klemstead USA, t11/20; cum 241K 9/21; cum 325K 11/22; cum 339K 3/23;
• 36918, Kolbo USA, t10/20; cum 394K 9/21; cum 415K 11/22; cum 429K 3/23;
• 37515, Pelarske USA, t10/20; cum 286K 9/21; cum 377K 11/22;
  
• 18692, AB, Jasper L USA, t11/10; cum 368 3/20;
  
• 36920, Adonijah USA, t11/20; cum 357K 9/21; cum 508K 11/22; cum 532K 3/23;
• 18693, Betty Shobe, t9/10; cum 377K 9/21; see this post, huge halo effect; cum 409K 11/22; 416K 3/23;

Production:

36921: Vickall USA, 46,520 over 20 days extrapolates to 70K over 30 days.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	19	18070	18150	11521	34605	33484	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	28996	29461	22803	60638	57841	1020
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	59335	58761	35744	96795	93262	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	28	29028	29618	21888	41010	39272	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	20	46520	45615	44504	59553	56518	271
BAKKEN	10-2020	2	0	0	889	89	1	88

36922: Lang USA, 26K over 8 days extrapolates to 98K over 30 days.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	23673	23631	29040	75221	73639	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	27922	27988	24527	62227	59251	1254
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	31653	31782	30434	47235	45363	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	55580	55486	51198	73570	70260	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	8	26150	26539	22025	30526	28983	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	17	64505	63607	67387	67918	44020	20158

36923: Thorson USA, 21,575 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 81K over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	21193	21178	15116	43861	42100	408
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	22299	22286	15465	41129	39746	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	33596	33770	24200	50432	48418	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	61950	61982	45747	78148	74423	117
BAKKEN	11-2020	21	47737	47558	40911	62267	59299	342
BAKKEN	10-2020	8	21575	21282	19147	21302	18886	114

37323: Oscar Thorson USA:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	24174	24228	23677	51670	49621	498
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	31160	31131	29247	56126	54199	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	45678	45732	43446	69958	67215	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	29	58376	57961	60894	76880	73471	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	676	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	18	49870	49194	71407	62907	43525	16447

36919: Klemstead USA:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	32820	32673	37219	57616	55639	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	26	18695	18666	29382	27100	24814	1150
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	26124	26140	43247	37667	36108	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	28054	28296	48670	38494	36816	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	22	40073	39498	89638	53394	51019	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	2	0	0	308	0	0

36918: Kolbo USA:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	30	41959	41953	24793	95857	93262	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	19	33762	33987	19323	47035	44861	122
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	70051	69719	42646	99144	94970	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	28	43615	43873	34374	57226	54626	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	20	54049	54102	67042	67815	64625	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	7	17778	16949	27894	17695	14901	176

37515: Pelarske USA:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	37318	37146	36242	61626	59390	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	26	20987	20946	27962	29016	26499	1247
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	28679	28738	37065	40541	38832	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	34288	34548	46563	45357	43312	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	21	46434	47163	60454	57867	55128	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	10	29949	28553	41138	39322	32402	5159

18692: Jasper, off line and inactive:

BAKKEN	3-2020	25	1759	2254	595	2386	99	2041
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	2028	2041	954	2770	1131	1353
BAKKEN	1-2020	15	1050	1122	160	1412	431	838
BAKKEN	12-2019	27	1801	1815	316	2780	1803	715
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	715	640	116	1214	556	451
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	1642	1588	323	2465	1934	251
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	1534	1363	319	2330	1682	383
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	1760	1732	401	2623	1975	365

36920: Adonijah, USA, above, 60K over 21 days extrapolates to 86K over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	37204	37232	29369	54912	52703	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	27	31676	31619	24775	55989	51547	2476
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	43625	43882	42683	63465	60860	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	66239	66320	71753	86498	82551	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	21	60451	59583	71360	64793	61263	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	4	0	0	306	0	0	0

18693: Betty Shobe USA, first drilled in August, 2010:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	19	2956	2976	2158	1182	993	22
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	5396	5375	3791	1013	714	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	26	3894	3853	2840	694	478	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	25	1359	1758	693	1527	0	1303

Best Headline Ever? Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas -- May 10, 2021

Do you remember this essay from April 30, 2021: Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas.

Quick! Name the country that is the poster child for windmills: the Netherlands.

Quick! Name the country that is the poster child for ethanol: Brazil.

And then we get this story: Brazil is on track to import a record volume of LNG this year because of persistent dry weather coupled with the commissioning of new LNG-to-power projects. Link here. 

***************************
Covid Hesitancy

CDC data here.

No columns or rows hidden. All data from April 26, 2021, to the present.

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered	Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday	Average number of doses given / day in past seven days
Monday	May 10, 2021	329,843,825	0	261,599,381	1,882,392	79.31%	17,334,250	2,117,025
Sunday	May 9, 2021	329,843,825	3,770	259,716,989	2,369,784	78.74%
Saturday	May 8, 2021	329,840,055	2,715,430	257,347,205	2,567,872	78.02%
Friday	May 7, 2021	327,124,625	2,514,440	254,779,333	2,805,581	77.88%
Thursday	May 6, 2021	324,610,185	3,060,850	251,973,752	2,406,932	77.62%
Wednesday	May 5, 2021	321,549,335	3,075,300	249,566,820	1,797,771	77.61%
Tuesday	May 4, 2021	318,474,035	5,964,460	247,769,049	988,846	77.80%
Monday	May 3, 2021	312,509,575	0	246,780,203	1,188,734	78.97%	21,817,570	2,287,393
Sunday	May 2, 2021	312,509,575	1,370	245,591,469	2,127,998	78.59%
Saturday	May 1, 2021	312,508,205	3,734,050	243,463,471	3,303,794	77.91%
Friday	April 30, 2021	308,774,155	3,295,660	240,159,677	2,799,184	77.78%
Thursday	April 29, 2021	305,478,495	3,620,610	237,360,493	2,721,079	77.70%
Wednesday	April 28, 2021	301,857,885	4,314,250	234,639,414	2,231,745	77.73%
Tuesday	April 27, 2021	297,543,635	6,851,630	232,407,669	1,639,215	78.11%
Monday	April 26, 2021	290,692,005	0	230,768,454	2,107,046	79.39%	26,186,280	2,741,021