Saturday, February 23, 2019

More On The North Dakota Economy -- February 23, 2019

Earlier this evening a reader sent me a link to an Ohio University study looking at the economic health of the US states. That note is posted here; as noted, I was unable to find the actual study.

In the process of looking for that study I ran across the results of a Pew study that was released just one week earlier, January 29, 2019, than the Ohio study: Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis.

The executive summary only mentioned a handful of states as stand-outs (good or bad). One of the states mentioned was North Dakota:
State personal income. The second-longest U.S. economic recovery has played out unevenly across states. Growth has been strongest in North Dakota and a group of mostly Western states and weakest in Connecticut, as measured by the rate of change in each state’s total personal income since the start of the Great Recession. State personal income growth—a measure of the economy—has trailed its historical pace. But for just the sixth time since the end of the downturn, all states posted gains from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2018. 
And everyone remembers this note, posted January 10, 2019:
Williams County is the wealthiest county in North Dakota and ranks among the wealthiest counties in other state.
The Swimming Page

Last week Sophia was introduced to the back stroke.

Today, she was doing the back stroke (sort of).

She is four years eight months old.

Backstroke - 4 yrs 8 mos old

If You're Gonna Play In Fargo, You Gotta Have A Shovel In The Van -- February 23, 2019


February 24, 2019: a reader writes --
I have lived all my life in cold states and this storm is fierce. They may well find dead people in cars/trucks in Nebraska, Iowa and MN.
I was just outside to fill the bird feeders, it is 11 degrees and 40 + mph winds. The birds/squirrels are just wild to feed today.
Anyway, ust going 30 ft to the feeder and 30 ft back to garage took all your breath away. We are in the SE end of town and the winds are from NW, so can you imagine how tough the wind is out in the open prairie. [Comment: makes me think of the concluding lines of Ole Edvart Rølvaag's Giants in the Earth.]

February 24, 2019:

Original Post

Note: the audio is delayed; you system is probably working -- but the audio won't be heard until about 13 seconds (which is an eternity for millennials) into the "clip":

Snowed in, 2002:

If you don't have time to watch the entire video, fast forward to 7:10 to watch the section on energy.

Week 8: February 17, 2019 -- February 23, 2019

Top international story: quiet.

Top international energy story: off-shore Brazilian heavy oil could make up shortfall;

Runner-up: Saudi continues to cut production;

Top national story: initial unemployment claims drop a stunning 23,000; Dow back to 26,000;

Top national energy story: US crude oil exports hit all-time record; and, here; US hits production record of 12 million bopd;

Runner-up: US CAPEX falling but US crude oil production will continue to climb; and, here;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • Quick Take quickly defeated.
The North Dakota House killed a bill that would have required a negotiation process before the state or a political subdivision used quick take eminent domain to acquire private property. The bill received a "do-pass" recommendation from the House Judiciary Committee, but the full House defeated it, 64 - 26. Rep. Denton Zubke, R-Watford City, opposed the bill. Zubke said the measure would add at least 90 days to the condemnation process, which defeats the purpose of quick take. Okay.
  • ND Senate passes tribal oil tax bill. 
A new plan for sharing tax revenue from oil produced on the Fort Berthold Reservation passed the Senate this week on a 40-5 vote and is now headed to the House where leaders have already voiced support for the bill. SB 2312 would change the current 50-50 tax split between the state and the Three Affiliated Tribes so that 80 percent of the tax from new wells on trust lands would go to the tribe and 20 percent would go to the state. The shares would be the opposite on fee land, with 80 percent going to the state and 20 percent to the tribe. The primary sponsor of the legislation is Senator Jordan Kannianen, R-Stanley. Wow, nothing subtle about this. 
  • ND economy, ranked #2 in the US in 2019:
Not only did North Dakota grab the No. 2 spot for healthiest economy in the U.S. for 2019, the state achieved the single greatest improvement in economic performance of all 50 states over the last 10-year period leaping from the 17th position in 2009 to second in 2019
The nationwide study was published by the Ohio Alliance for Innovation in Population Health using information compiled by the Appalachian Regional Commission. The rankings are determined by unemployment rate, per capita market income and poverty rate averaged over three years and compared to national averages.

According to the study, New Hampshire claimed the number one spot for healthiest economy followed by North Dakota. Hawaii was third, Nebraska fourth, and Minnesota was fifth. 
New Hampshire? See story here.

Bakken economy

Among Economically Healthy States In The US, North Dakota Was Ranked #2 -- North Dakota Ranked #1 In Showing Greatest Improvement Over The Past Decade

North Dakota walking back to happiness -- spread the news -- North Dakota is on its way:

Walking Back To Happiness, Helen Shapiro
From an ohiopopulationhealth site:
A nationwide study on economic distress was recently released by the Ohio Alliance for Innovation in Population Health ranking the economic performance of all 50 states in the country from 2009 to 2019. While the economy in New Hampshire has remained the healthiest in the United States over the past decade and Mississippi has continued to be the most economically distressed state over that same time span, that doesn’t tell the whole story.
For example, although the economy in New Hampshire improved and allowed the state to stay in the No. 1 position, other states near or at the bottom of the list, such as Mississippi, also improved.
New Hampshire had an economic distress index score of 70.8 in 2009 that improved to 68.8 in 2019 (a lower number represents a healthier economy) and Mississippi had a score of 153 in 2009 that improved to 141. 8 in 2019.
North Dakota got a stand-alone paragraph on its own; was ranked #2; and was #1 in showing the greatest improvement in the economy, leaping form 17th to second.

We'll talk about that later, if I remember.

Meanwhile, the top ten states in terms of healthiest economies for 2019:

  • New Hampshire (hardly moved; 70.8 points in 2009; 68.8 points in 2019)
  • North Dakota (91 points in 2009; 71 points in 2019 -- like golf, a lower score is better)
  • Hawaii
  • Nebraska
  • Minnesota
  • Massachusetts
  • Maryland
  • Connecticut
  • Vermont
  • Wyoming

Among the most economically distressed states, the bottom ten:

  • Mississippi
  • New Mexico
  • West Virginia
  • Alabama
  • Louisiana
  • Kentucky 
  • Arizona 
  • South Carolina
  • Arkansas
  • Georgia

For the life of me, as they say, I couldn't find a link to the report itself, but the site did provide this link to a new gigantic dinosaur. I cannot make this stuff up.

Billionaires Just Wanna Have Fun -- February 23, 2019

I have definitely lost track of pricing in this industry. I thought it was a minimum of $799 just to get in the door. And for less than $1,000, one would "have to know somebody."

But $79/hour? Are you kidding? Billionaires? And they go to an establishment not vetted by their organizations, and apparently ask for the special of the day.

When you look at the photos in this rogues' gallery, it now makes sense why they had to pay for their night out.

I feel sad for the servers. $79/hour. Maybe they make their money on tips.  If so I hope the servers were not kuchar'd for all their hard work. I was going to stay "stiff'd" but I thought best not to go there.

Girls Just Wanna Have Some, Chromatics

Cashiered. Kuchar'd.

Update -- I'm Back -- February 23, 2019 -- Did Jeff Bezos Just Get Offered A "Gift Horse"?

Instead of sending an individual reply to all the e-mail I received overnight asking "what happened; where are you?" I'll just sent a "group note."

I'm fine. I took the night off and got a late start this morning (Friday night, Saturday morning).

There is simply too much going on. Soccer, gymnastics, water polo, swimming lessons for the granddaughters, and then the golf tournament on television, the Charlie Pride "special" and it goes on and on.

But I'm back but working at 33-and-a-third rather than the usual 78 rpm.

And, then, of course, ever since we got the word that the Canadian National Energy Board recommended approval of the TransMountain pipeline with 156 conditions, I've been enjoying Bob and Doug:

Connecting The Dots

Wow, if Amazon and Boston can't take advantage of recent events in a "New York minute" color me disappointed.

Look at this. Just days ago, Amazon announces they will not build one-half of HQ2 in Long Island City, Queens, NYC.  Amazon was looking for a site
  • in the northeast
  • with lots of public transportation
  • with lots of financial capital access
  • with lots of highly educated tech people
If it can't be NYC, why not Boston?

If Elizabeth Warren wants to put "space" between her and Occasional-Cortex, Pocahontas needs to get out in front of this now.

For Jeff Bezos, this would be like a gift horse. 

But hey, is there any place in Boston to build? You betcha.

From Chesto over at The Boston Globe:
School for sale: Want to buy a piece of a Brookline hilltop? Newbury College's campus is hitting the market, as the financially strapped school prepares to close after this semester. Colliers International, the brokerage handling the sale, said no purchase price has been set on the 7.8-acre campus in the Fisher Hill neighborhood. It's already attracting interest from private-sector bidders. But you've got to wonder if the town of Brookline makes a play for the property, given the town's well known needs for more school space. 
Newbury College:
  • the main campus: 10,000 acres
  • just completed a 16,000 square foot student union
  • satellite campuses: as many as 15 across eastern Massachusetts
  • within biking distance of:
    • Harvard University
    • MIT
    • Harvard Business School
    • Harvard Medical School
    • Boston University
There are 25 universities and colleges in the Boston area. 

Take Off, Eh! The TransMountain Pipeline -- February 23, 2019

This is just some housekeeping regarding the TransMountain pipeline in western Canada. Nothing new here.

One hardly needs to make any comments about the National Energy Board's recommendations.

It's actually pretty "funny" for lack of a better word. I think the Canadian NEB was able to thread the needle in such a way to piss off anyone who has a dog in this fight. From what I can tell, this is what the NEB says:
This pipeline is absolutely the worse thing we can be doing when it comes to the killer whales and then there are a few issues with the pipeline route itself, not to even mention that this doesn't help the AGW issue at all. Why don't you just build a pipeline to North Dakota? They seem friendly enough. 
But go ahead, build your damn pipeline, you've sunk this much money and time into it, why not? But if you are really serious about building this monstrosity, be prepared to answer 156 conditions.
Note: I may have written earlier that it was 165 conditions. If I did, my bad. Sorry. I hope that was not material to your thoughts on this recommendation. 

Sort of reminds me of Bob and Doug McKenzie, "Great White North" skits on Second City TV years ago.

Yesterday I posted:
TransMountain: I think I read that the Canadian national energy regulator approved the TransMountain pipeline although the agency said it was "bad" for the environment. The government will now vote whether to proceed. (It will.) And then protests and lawsuits to follow.
Today, from a reader:
Here's the recent NEB document recommending TransMountain approval:

I found it to be page 9 of a 689 page volume.  It's actually titled "i" of the attached

Here's a screenshot of the bottom of that page:

After completing the Reconsideration hearing and having regard to all relevant considerations, the Board is of the view that the Project is and will be required by the present and future public convenience and necessity, and is in the Canadian public interest. Pursuant to the National Energy Board Act (NEB Act), the Board confirms the recommendation, and replaces certain conditions, that it provided to the GIC in its OH-001-2014 Report. The Board recommends that the GIC approve the Project by directing the issuance of a certificate of public convenience and necessity (CPCN) to Trans Mountain Pipeline ULC (Trans Mountain), subject to 156 conditions. Pursuant to the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, 2012 (CEAA 2012) the Board is of the view that the designated Project is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects. Specifically, Project-related marine shipping is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects on the Southern resident killer whale, and on Indigenous cultural use associated with the Southern resident killer whale. This is despite the fact that effects from Project-related marine shipping will be a small fraction of the total cumulative effects, and the level of marine traffic is expected to increase regardless of whether the Project is approved. The Board also finds that greenhouse gas (or GHG) emissions from Project-related marine vessels would result in measureable increases and, taking a precautionary approach, are likely to be significant. While a credible worst-case spill from the Project or a Project-related vessel is not likely, if it were to occur, the environmental effects would be significant. While these effects weighed heavily in the Board’s reconsideration of Project-related marine shipping, the Board recommends that, in light of the considerable benefits of the Project and measures to mitigate the effects, the GIC find that they can be justified in the circumstances. The Board has identified a recommended follow-up program to be implemented with respect to the designated Project. Pursuant to the Species at Risk Act (SARA), the Board has identified the adverse effects of the Project and its related marine shipping on each SARA-listed wildlife species and its critical habitat, and has imposed (through conditions) and recommended (to the GIC) measures to avoid or lessen those effects and to monitor them.