Sunday, July 11, 2021

Hess Will Report Three Huge EN-Joyce Wells -- July 11, 2021

Remember how "everyone" says the daughter wells will never do as well as the parent wells. 

Read on. 

The Hess EN-Joyce wells in the Manitou oil field are tracked here

A reader recently alerted me to these wells telling me that they should be huge, and that they should be coming off the confidential list shortly. 

The wells were drilled quickly, and completed quickly; the fracks appear to be "moderate" fracks for the Bakken. 

They remain confidential, but runs are being reported:

  • 37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6, Manitou, from the permit, sections 16/17/20 & 21-156-94; 844 FSL 749 FWL; 33-061-04835; fracked 4/7/21 - 4/11/21; 10.7 million gallons of water; 85.2% water by mass; note four days for the frack; generally, I expect a seven- to 10-day frack; to come off confidential list, 10/24/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20215116058241
4-20211828725524
  • 37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou, from the permit, sections 16/17/20 & 21-156-94; 844 FSL 782 FWL; 33-061-04836; fracked 4/1/21 - 4/8/21; 11 million gallons of water; 85.5% water by mass; to come off confidential list, 10/29/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-202163032102218
4-20215259776
  • 37979, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-4, Manitou, from the permit, sections 16/17/20 & 21-156-94; 844 FSL 815 FWL; 33-061-04837; fracked 4/1/21 - 4/8/21; 11 million gallons of water; 85.5% water by mass; to come off confidential list, 11/7/21;
  • spud: March 3, 2021
  • cease drilling: March 13, 2021
  • logging services began at 8,164' at 12:42 p.m.CST, March 5, 2021
  • KOP, 10,407', reached at 1:59 p.m. CST on March 6, 2021
  • KOP, 10,407', reached at 4:51 a.m. CST on March 6, 2021
  • drilling the curve began: 1: 59 p.m. CST, March 6, 2021
  • total depth of the curve reached at 10,988; measured depth / 10,272.5' TVD at 9:10 p.m. on March 6, 2021;
  • TD reached at 6:15 p.m. CST, March 13, 2021
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20214730727719

The other Hess EN-Joyce wells:
  • 17887, the parent well, off-line; never did well; will be interesting to see if it comes back on line; IA/165, Hess, EN-Joyce-156-94-1720H-1, Manitou, t6/09; cum 91K 7/20; remains off line 5/21;
  • 27313, not an EN-Joyce well, but sited on same pad as the "original" EN-Joyce pad; also drilled back in 2014; not a particularly good well; remains on line; never came off line, 781, Hess, EN-Eva-156-94-1621H-1, Manitou, t9/14; cum 121K 5/21;
  • 27314, drilled back in 2014, not a particularly good well; remains on line; never came off line, 349, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-1, Manitou, t9/14; cum 121K 5/21;
  • 27315, drilled back in 2014, not a particularly good well; remains on line; was taken off line for only two months; appears to be coming back on line 5/21; 142, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-2, Manitou, t8/14; cum 149K 5/21;
  • 27316, drilled back in 2014, not a particularly good well; was taken off line 7/20 and remains off line, 4/21; 490, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-3, Manitou, taken off line 7/20; returning to production, 5/21; cum 130K 7/20;

For Investors: McKinsey And Company's Outlook -- July 11, 2021

Something to keep you occupied between now and tomorrow morning. From McKinsey & Company from earlier last week. It supports my view that in the big scheme of things, for investors, Covid-19 was not the Black Swan many made it out to be.

Turning the corner. Are we heading for a 50 percent economic expansion? Had anyone suggested in early 2020 that there could be a boom decade in the offing, many people would have fainted at their (WFH) desks. But history suggests that we could see that kind of expansion after a recession, with the right moves from public- and private-sector leaders 
Two tracks. In March 2020, we argued that the imperatives of our time were the battles to flatten the twin curves of viral spread and economic shock. We said then that there was no trade-off between the virus and the economy, and that has been borne out: no country kept its economy moving well without also taking control over the virus.

Uncertainty is receding. Today, after multiple peaks of viral spread and with the COVID-19-vaccine rollout progressing, some regions are finally getting a handle on both the disease and the economy. Although leaders have applied public-health measures and economic stimulus with varying intensity, government support through fiscal and monetary policies has unequivocally worked. Employment rates are recovering, though at different degrees, in all countries. Even nations that are still facing challenges are likely to see strong headline GDP growth in 2021. It’s now possible to imagine a recovery that will mean a better quality of life for more people—and a more sustainable future for the planet.

The big question. What should public- and private-sector leaders focus on next? Three broad beliefs shape our answers. First, 3 to 4 percent annual global economic growth is achievable with available technology—a “productivity miracle” isn’t needed. Second, we don’t have to choose between sustained and inclusive growth; the goals can be complementary. Third, the medical advances and process accelerations achieved in response to the pandemic open the possibility that we can make rapid and unprecedented progress against persistent health problems.

Prosperity for all. If global leaders set the expectations that these outcomes are possible, and act on them, then the world could be on the cusp of a new age of growth in jobs and income. The road will be rough in places. The first year of the pandemic and the policies designed in response have had a profound impact on how people view their governments, how well economies are positioned to rebound, and how much public and private debt has been accumulated along the way.

It’s an extraordinary opportunity—and a commensurate challenge. If the world’s public- and private-sector leaders aren’t able to capitalize on the promise of prosperity for all, the recovery could end up adding only 10 to 20 percent to GDP, less equitably distributed, less sustainable, and with worse outcomes for global health and the environment.

Incredibly Remiss Not To Have Followed This Story -- Huge Story -- Deserves More Exposure -- July 11, 2021

I was completely remiss not to have followed this story all these years. It's a big deal. 

From Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

The Executive Committee of the Western Dakota Energy Association recently recognized Janet Sanford for her efforts in managing the technical transformation of WDEA's LoadPass Permits System.

Sanford is retiring this year after serving as LoadPass operator since 2011. She started her business, TeamWorks Consulting, in 2008, and shortly thereafter began providing data entry services for WDEA's truck permit system. The association began developing an online web application for the LoadPass system in 2010, at which time Sanford worked with the LoadPass operator and software vendor to help design and test the system.

LoadPass has evolved considerably since then. As industry activity increased, it became obvious the counties needed a way to get the word out when road restrictions were imposed, so a notification system was developed in 2012. LoadPass went entirely to paperless permits in 2015, the same year work began on developing an interactive restricted road map. Further enhancements to the map have made it more user-friendly. It now functions in a way that lets users pick a starting point and destination, and the map fills in the best route to move the oversize load.

WDEA began offering its services to counties outside the oil-producing region in 2017. Currently 29 of the state's 53 counties and three cities participate in the system.

Before joining WDEA, Sanford worked as a real estate loan officer at McKenzie Bank (Cornerstone Bank) in Watford City for 10 years, served as McKenzie County School District business manager for 10 years, and was operations manager for a Minnesota-based software company.

An incredible story. 

Oh, Give Me A Break -- July 11, 2021

From today:

From a couple of days ago:

I wonder if they put Dr Fauci in charge it would help? If they're not listening to Bill Gates, maybe they would listen to Dr Fauci.

OPEC Bsket Price -- July 8, 2021 -- Post July 11, 2021

Link here

From last week -- so a bit "dated" -- we'll see tomorrow where "we" are.



Hopefully It Was Worth It -- Eight Years In Federal Prison For Some "Fun With Fire" -- July 11, 2021

Link here

One of two central Iowa women responsible for millions of dollars in damage to the Dakota Access pipeline was sentenced in federal court Wednesday to eight years in prison.

Climate activists Jessica Reznicek, 39, and Ruby Montoya, 31, were indicted on nine federal charges each in September 2019, including charges for damaging an energy facility, use of fire in the commission of a felony, and malicious use of fire.

Reznicek and Montoya both pleaded guilty to a single count of damaging an energy facility. The remaining charges were dismissed. 

In July 2017 the women claimed credit for a series of acts of sabotage, including burning pipeline construction equipment at a Buena Vista County worksite in November 2016 and using oxyacetylene cutting torches or gasoline-soaked rags to damage other pipeline sites around the state between March and May 2017. At the time of their admission, they were affiliated with the Des Moines Catholic Workers' social justice movement. Montoya will be sentenced July 30.

[Lots of time to think about it.]

I hate plea agreements. Nine federal charges each, and they plead guilty to one.  I assume they know they are out in two years, including time served, with good behavior.

Sports Today -- July 11, 2021

Updates

July 12, 2021: it appears investors in Virgin Galactic were as excited about the flight to "the near the edge of space" as the rest of us. SPCE dropped 17.3% today; lost $8.51 per share, closing at $40.69. 

July 12, 2021: before the year is over, we're going to hear a lot about the Karman line. From wiki:

The Kármán line is an attempt to define a boundary between Earth's atmosphere and outer space, which is important for legal and regulatory purposes: aircraft and spacecraft fall under different jurisdictions and are subject to different treaties.

The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI), an international standard-setting and record-keeping body for aeronautics and astronautics, defines the Kármán line as the altitude of 100 kilometres (54 nautical miles; 62 miles; 330,000 feet) above Earth's mean sea level.

Not all organizations recognize this definition.

NASA, the US Space Force, US Air Force and Federal Aviation Administration define the boundary as 50 miles (80 km) above sea level. International law does not define the edge of space, or the limit of national airspace.

The Kármán line is named after Theodore von Kármán (1881–1963), a Hungarian American engineer and physicist who was active in aeronautics and astronautics. He was the first person to determine the altitude at which the atmosphere becomes too thin to support aeronautical flight, which Kármán calculated as 275,000 ft (84 kilometres). A vehicle above this altitude would not be able to use aerodynamic lift to support itself. This is also close to the upper boundary of mesosphere, which is estimated to end at about 80–90 km.

According to Andrew G. Haley, the 100 km line is an effect of agreement between U.S. and Soviet Union delegates of FAI. Coincidently 100 km is also approximately an altitude of turbopause, below which atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen etc) are well-mixed and above 100 km heavier molecules tend to occupy lower parts of atmosphere due to gravitational separation.

Original Post

Flight into space: done; anti-climactic. Expensive carnival ride. With enough money, anyone can be labeled an "astronaut." Four firsts (corrected from original entry; huge thanks to a reader):

  • Alan Shepard -- first American in space
  • John Glenn -- first American to orbit
  • Neil Armstrong -- first man on extraterrestrial body
  • Sir Richard Branson -- first billionaire in almost-space on a plane with several close friends

NASCAR: now, 2:30 p.m. CT.

PGA golf: on but I'm not interested

NBA: this evening, 7:00 p.m. CT

On another note, any American who has "trouble" with America or is "embarrassed" to be an American, should read the wiki entry for Giannis Adetokunbo, and then read the wiki entry for Nigeria.

****************************
Video

Wow, I just watched the shorter-than-90-second video of Virgin Galactic. NASCAR is more exciting. I doubt one can tell the difference between mach 1 and mach 2. Branson reached mach 2 momentarily. Every USAF F-15 fighter pilot has flown in excess of mach 1, and way more than once. The Lockheed SR-71 "Blackbird" regularly flew mach 3+ and at altitudes in excess of 85,000 feet. All personnel on board wore spacesuits.

****************************
Tweets By Dan Riffle Today

Congrats to Richard Branson on going to almost-space in a plane, thus adding to the long list of billionaire "achievements" that are really just mediocre versions of much cooler things we already did decades ago through collective endeavors financed by taxes. 

Excited to watch the biggest televised sports event of the day: John Smoltz and Vinny Del Negro dueling it out at an amateur golf tournament.

***********************
Hilarious

Hilaria Baldwin.

While Hilaria apologized and clarified in February that she was born in Boston and was simply raised in a household that admired Spanish culture due to her father’s undergraduate degree in Spanish literature, she has remained adamant that she feels a "deep connection to two cultures." 
Her parents later moved to Mallorca in 2011, which reportedly contributed to her affinity for the Spanish language and culture.

On the other hand, Alex really was hilarious in 30 Rock

For Investors Only -- Oil And Gas -- July 11, 2021

This article is almost a week old. I was not interested in it when it was first published, but after recent events / stories coming out of California and now the Permian, all of a sudden this article becomes more compelling, at least for the archives.

From Brian Sozzi, the anchor, editor-at-large, Yahoo!Finance: ten great stocks to own because oil prices have surged -- Goldman Sachs

  • turnaround stories: OXY, XOM, OVV
  • M&A winners: FANG, COP, EQT, PXD, DVN,
  • company-specific stories: HES, SLB

Note two companies of interest not mentioned: RDS and CVX

By the way, I was blown away by the fact that the story had such a huge typographical error -- and it wasn't just once but twice. That makes it something other than a typographical error, doesn't it? I previously noted the typographical error, but only saw it once. This time I saw it a second time. 

How did an anchor, editor-at-large make such a huge mistake? It makes me wonder if I'm missing something.

Be that as it may, for investors in oil and gas, one now has an interesting list from which to choose. 

Brian Sozzi listed ten; I added two more.

********************************
What A Ham!

 Wearing crazy socks.

It's Getting Very, Very Interesting For Energy Investors -- July 11, 2021

I can't recall if I previously posted this. If I did not post it, how in the world did I miss this story?

It's being reported that Chevron may be in the process of exiting the Permian. Link here.

Chevron Corporation CVX is attempting to sell two groups of conventional oil and gas assets in the Permian Basin — the most prolific shale play in the United States — worth more than $1 billion, per Reuters' sources.

If the sources are to be believed, the business has hired an investment bank to sell $879 million in Permian oil and gas resources, and it has other assets worth more than $200 million for sale elsewhere in the basin. Chevron has been assessing additional properties in the Permian and elsewhere, and it may sell older assets later this year.

Chevron is the latest oil major to consider divesting holdings in the Permian Basin, the biggest oilfield in the United States. It is considering selling lower-value assets in order to focus on its highest-performing assets, while some other majors, such as Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS.A, are considering abandoning the basin completely in order to invest in energy transition.

Shell’s Permian sale could fetch it as high as $10 billion. Thus, the integrated energy firm is gradually shifting its focus from fossil fuels. The proceeds, if the deal is confirmed, will probably be utilized by the company for reducing debt loads and for investing in clean energy, per the same source.

As far as Chevron is concerned, the company’s CFO Pierre Breber recently stated at a Reuters conference that the firm has no intention to downsize its oil and gas operations in favor of wind and solar energy. 
Breber said in the press meet that the firm will spend $3 billion over the next seven years on technology to eliminate hazardous emissions from its activities instead of investing in renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar power.

With regard to the Permian and Chevron: the next question. Who is big enough to be able to afford Chevron's assets in the Permian. If not, sold in pieces. PXD, anyone? 

For the archives, RDS-B:

  • trading at $39.70; up 1.4% at the end of the week;
  • 52-week range: $21.79 - $42.29;
  • P/E: n/a
  • market cap: $156 billion
  • dividend: $1.39; 3.5%
  • one-year target: $57.67

For the archives, CVX:

  • trading at $104; up 1.4% at the end of the week;
  • 52-week range: $102.36 - $104.23;
  • P/E: n/a
  • market cap: $201 billion
  • dividend: $5.36; 5.05%
  • one-year target: $122.78

Shell Becoming A Shell Of Its Former Self -- July 11, 2021

This simply may be one of the most interesting energy story to be followed from an investor's point of view. 

California: Shell to bow out of California joint venture with Exxon 

Shell is reportedly planning to quit its California-based joint venture with fellow oil supermajor ExxonMobil as it looks to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels. 

Four sources told Reuters that the FTSE blue chip had informed Exxon that it intended to exit subsidiary Aera Energy, in which it holds a 52 percent stake. The firm did not respond to a request for comment. 

 If it does so, it will be the latest in a number of divestments the Anglo-Dutch giant has made this year amid growing pressure to up its climate commitments. Shell has already sold refineries in Washington State and Houston, and is also mulling getting rid of its assets on shale shelf the Permian Basin.

[Aera was mentioned at the blog once before, April 25, 2021.]

For the archives, RDS-B:

  • trading at $39.70; up 1.4% at the end of the week;
  • 52-week range: $21.79 - $42.29;
  • P/E: n/a
  • market cap: $156 billion
  • dividend: $1.39; 3.5%
  • one-year target: $57.67

Richard Branson In Space -- Notes From Everywhere -- Including The Bakken -- July 11, 2021

Success: Richard Branson in space.

  • Sir Richard Branson, after nearly 17 years of Virgin Galactic development, achieved his dream and reached space on Sunday.
  • The company’s spacecraft VSS Unity launched above the skies of New Mexico on Sunday, with two pilots guiding the vehicle carrying the billionaire founder and three Virgin Galactic employees.
  • Branson is the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft.
  • Pilots Dave Mackay and Michael Masucci flew Unity. Alongside Branson in the spacecraft’s cabin was chief astronaut trainer Beth Moses, lead operations engineer Colin Bennett, and VP of government affairs Sirisha Bandla. Both Mackay and Masucci have previously flown to space, as well as Moses and pilots C.J. Sturckow and Mark Stucky.
    • The U.S. officially considers pilots who have flown above 80 kilometers (or about 262,000 feet) to be astronauts.
    • VSS Unity is designed to hold up to six passengers along with the two pilots. The company has about 600 reservations for tickets on future flights, sold at prices between $200,000 and $250,000 each.

Was there any ever any doubt: Biden's plans to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy are losing momentum. The argument that is carrying the day: why ruin a good thing? LOL. 

California: this is a long story -- short but sweet -- go to the links to sort it out --

  • California recently enacted new regulations forcing berthing ships to switch to shore-based electric power;
  • berthing ships must shut off diesel engines while in port; purpose: eliminate "emissions"
  • no sooner did the regulations go into effect (conflicting dates here) when Governor Newsom had to suspend them temporarily
  • California needs all the electricity it can get this summer
  • now, huge Oregon wildfire threatens three separate transmission lines into California; link here;
  • think about that: the supply/demand picture for California electricity is so close, regulations affecting berthing ships can impact entire grid
  • links here:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order Saturday to free up additional energy capacity for the power grid during the heat wave and growing fire threat. The order allows ships berthed at California ports to use auxiliary engines rather than shore power to relieve pressure on the electricity system.

California: Shell to bow out of California joint venture with Exxon 

Shell is reportedly planning to quit its California-based joint venture with fellow oil supermajor ExxonMobil as it looks to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels. 

Four sources told Reuters that the FTSE blue chip had informed Exxon that it intended to exit subsidiary Aera Energy, in which it holds a 52 percent stake. The firm did not respond to a request for comment. 

 If it does so, it will be the latest in a number of divestments the Anglo-Dutch giant has made this year amid growing pressure to up its climate commitments. Shell has already sold refineries in Washington State and Houston, and is also mulling getting rid of its assets on shale shelf the Permian Basin.

[Aera was mentioned at the blog once before, April 25, 2021.]

Director's Cut, April 2021:

  • I keep hearing that Bakken production is falling;
  • had to review April's data (had forgotten it);
  • turns out I had posted the Director's Cut but never posted the usual data;
  • a combination of ennui, exhaustion, nothing remarkable in the report;
  • so, here's the April, 2021, data: production increased month-over-month
  • link here (pdf);

Director's Cut, May 2021:

  • the NDIC recently postponed the date for the May, 2021, Director's Cut release;
  • now scheduled for July 20, 2021;
  • normally released by the 15th of each, this is the latest, I believe, that the Director's Cut has ever been released
  • I can think of any number of reasons why the report is delayed
  • link here (pdf).

Iraq: will stumble through 2021, but $70-oil is not enough to stabilize Iraq for the long term;
link to one of the best, Charles Kennedy;

  • in addition, western companies moving out -- being politically correct, it appears;
  • allows Russia, China, Iran to move in
  • wonder if this is part of the current administration's long-term plan? LOL.

WTI: when we last checked, WTI was up 2.22%, up $1.62; and trading at $74.56.

The Saudi model: maybe Joe Biden could take a page from Saudi Arabia -- cap gasoline prices at the pump

Investing: a contrarian approach. Link to Alex Kimani. Nothing necessarily new but does provide a pretty nice wrap-up of current events regarding US shale, hedging, and the OPEC+ "spat."

Diamondbacks at Dodgers: slugfest; final two-run homer broke unwritten rule in baseball. Is nothing sacred any more? 

Haters will hate: and there's a lot of hate for California. Over at ZeroHedge but I believe the source is Instragram, for what that's worth. But probably more credible than The New York Times. Just saying. Be sure to read the comments. Of the fifty states, there's only one state that hates itself more than any other state. Other data points to note:

  • North Dakota folks hate South Dakota
  • South Dakota: the feeling is mutual
  • practically the entire west hates California
  • Texas hates Oklahoma (must be football, and the casinos)
  • most of New England hates Massachusetts
  • guess who New Jersey hates

Domino chain: the perfect chain doesn't exist. Link here.

Well said, but there are many, many more examples. Link here. Note who posted this.

Don't make a threat you "can't" keep. Apple threatens to "leave" Great Britain if court rules that Apple needs to pay taxes/fees on technology it uses. 

Green energy: the US south shipping wood chips to Europe. What a deal. What is surprising about the story? It's being reported by CNN.

Another Dismal Week; Production Data For The Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- July 11, 2021

The wells:

  • 37479, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1E TFH, Elidah, no production data,
  • 35560, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-95-31-30-20MBH, McGregor, early production data:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20211241529260
4-20211744224695
3-20212375532556
2-20212631430446
1-202152765060
  •  37018, conf, Oasis, Thelen Federal 5397 44-34 14TX, Banks, early production data:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20211208138881
4-20211682652601
3-20211937154255
2-20211377634780
1-2021100772530

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- July 11, 2021

Monday, July 19, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:
None.

Sunday, July 18, 2021: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 187 for the year:
37479, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1E TFH,

Saturday, July 17, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 186 for the year:
35560, conf, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-95-31-30-20MBH,

Friday, July 16, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:
None.

Thursday, July 15, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:
None.

Wednesday, July 14, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:
None.

Monday, July 12, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 185 for the year:
37018, conf, Oasis, Thelen Federal 5397 44-34 14TX,

Sunday, July 11, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:
None.

Saturday, July 10, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 184 for the year:
None.