Wednesday, October 4, 2017

North Of Minot -- An Operating Rig -- October 4, 2017

The Chatfield oil field is tracked here

The graphics.

This graphic shows a rig-on-site about 22 miles almost directly due north of Minot.


One can see the operating rig relative to other completed wells in Chatfield oil field:

The wells:
  • 27319, 600, Ballard Petroleum, Fines 24-19, Chatfield oil field, a Madison well; t6/14; cum 146 8/17;
  • 29807, 352, Ballard Petroleum, Nelson 34-19, Chatfield oil field, a Madison well; t3/15; cum 161 8/17;
  • 29622, 186, Ballard Petroleum, Borstad 30-3, Chatfield oil field, a Madison well; t10/15; cum 110 8/17;
  • 31117, conf, Ballard Petroleum, Nelson 33-19, Chatfield oil field, most likely a Madison well;
  • 31118, 32 (no typo), Ballard Petroleum, Fines 23-19, Chatfield oil field, a Madison well; t12/15; cum 9k 8/17;
  • 32141, rig-on-site, Ballard Petroleum, Borstad 30-4, Chatfield oil field, most likely a Madison well;
  • 31307, conf, Ballard Petroleum, Barton Trust 31-30, Chatfield oil field, most likely a Madison well;

Random Update Of Five XTO Wells With "Lousy" IPs That Came Back To Be Great Wells -- October 4, 2017

Back in March 17, 2017, I started following #30834 --
  • XTO's #30834, only 10 stages, 2 million lbs; is there an explanation? At same link check all those "lousy" wells: 30834; 31596; 31609; 31597; and, 32151.
Tonight I see that it has just been re-fracked. This is third time this well has been fracked (see FracFocus; API: 33-025-02880). Note production data for this well after the most recent re-frack (this is the entire production history):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

With regard to the word "lousy," I was talking about their "lousy" IPs, but it turns out that these have turned out to be great wells (see production profiles down below the "fold":
  • 30834, 326, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36D,  Bear Creek, 10 stages, 2 million lbs, t12/16; cum 3K 1/17;
  • 31596, 287, XTO, Johnson 31X-6CXD, Siverston, t11/16; cum --; stimulated 8/13/16; 60 stages, 17.76 million lbs;
  • 31609, 156, XTO, Johnson 31X-6G, Siverston, 40 stages; 7.3 million lbs, t11/16; cum —
  • 31597, 122, XTO, Johnson 31X-6D, Siverston, 40 stages; 7.7 million lbs, t11/16; cum —
  • 32151, 186, XTO, Johnson 31X-6HXE, Siverston, t11/16; cum 6K 1/17; 60 stages; 17 million lbs; stimulated 9/7/16;
30834: above

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Oasis Lawlar Wells In North Tobacco Garden Field Should Be Coming Off Confidential List Soon -- October 4, 2017

I expect the Oasis Lawlar N Federal wells in North Tobacco Garden to come off confidential list soon. These will be some huge wells.

ND State Oil And Gas Lease Auction -- August, 2017

Disclaimer: I went through the spreadsheet quickly and did not double-check the numbers. In most cases I counted the tracts once and most likely made mistakes in counting. There will likely be other factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Billings County (southwest part of the state)
  • seven tracts
  • Northern Energy and NP Resources
  • $152 - $555/acre bonus
Bowman County (southwest part of the state)
  • eighteen tracts
  • Freedom Energy Resources, Skyworld Oil
  • $7 - $51/acre bonus
Burke County
  • nine tracts
  • Northern Energy, Chancellor Energy
  • $251 - $551/acre bonus
Divide County
  • fourteen tracts
  • Northern Energy; Resource Energy Can-Am,
  • $91 - $205/acre bonus
Dunn County
  • four tracts
  • Dasinger, Kaleb; Northern Energy
  • $7 - $8/acre bonus 
Golden Valley County (southwest part of the state)
  • forty-two tracts
  • Northern Energy, Magnum Producing, OKREEK Oil, Skyworld, 
  • $2 - $76/acre bonus; most in the single digit
McKenzie County
  • two tracts
  • Northern Energy
  • $88 - $122/acre bonus
Mountrail County
  • forty-six tracts
  • Liberty Resources; OKREEK Oil, The Triple T, Northern Energy, Advanta Resources, Skyworld Oil, $37 - $506/acre bonus 
Renville County
  • two tracts
  • Skyworld Oil, Perkins Oil, Northern Energy
  • $28 - $58/acre bonus
Ward County
  • thirty-six tracts
  • Capital Street Investments, Williston Basin Energy, Northern Energy, Douglas K Morton, Advanta Resources, Skyworld Oil; Dasinger, Kaleb; 
  • $1 - $21/acre bonus; mostly $1 and $2/acre bonus
Williams County
  • one tract
  • 0.16 acre for $1,604.80 or $10,030/acre bonus
  • Lynx Oil Company
  • tract: lot 10, BK1 of Ledosquet addition to the City of Williston 

US BLM Considers Temporary Suspension Of Methane Venting And Flaring Rule -- October 4, 2017

From Oil & Gas Journal via Twitter:
The US Bureau of Land Management proposed a temporary suspension or delay of certain requirements in its 2016 oil and gas methane venting and flaring rule until Jan. 27, 2019. Comments on the proposal, which is scheduled to appear in the Oct. 5 Federal Register, will be accepted through Nov. 7.
Officially known as the Methane Waste and Prevention Rule, the Independent Petroleum Association of America and Western Energy Alliance—along with the states of Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana—legally challenged it in federal court soon after the rule became final on Nov. 18, 2016. The case now is pending in US District Court for Wyoming.
The plaintiffs essentially argued that BLM exceeded its authority by imposing regulation of airborne emissions that falls under the US Environmental Protection Agency’s purview. BLM contended that its authority includes controlling and regulating the waste of federal resources, which it said was the rule’s purpose.

New North American On-Shore Conventional Oil Play -- October 4, 2017

Data points from Bloomberg via Rigzone:
  • the play is located between Alberta's Nipisi Lake and an area called Marten Hills; along the western edge of the Athabasca Oil Sands region
  • the formation: within the Clearwater shale and sandstone formation
  • location: Alberta, Canada; 125 miles southwest of the Fort McMurray oil sands; near Slave Lake
  • low cost: can be pumped with conventional gear
  • well costs: C$1.1 million to C$1.5 million; will produce as much as four ties more crude oil as a conventional horizontal well
  • depth: 2,000 feet (wow -- that is incredibly shallow (middle Bakken, 9,000 feet deep)
  • crude can be produced from the area for about $8/bbl (US dollar)
  • land rush
  • off the radar scope because most drillers are closely held like Deltastream
  • recently, under the name Stomp Energy Ltd, the land company Scott Land & Lease Ltd paid C$10.15 million or C$1,101 per hectare
  • cheap by Permian standards, but it was the most paid for a single section of exploration land in Alberta since December, 2011
  • companies named: Deltastream, Cenovus Energy Inc., and Spur Petroleum Ltd
  • size of play not mentioned
  • small potatoes so far: just 1.46 million bbls in all of 2015 (North Dakota produces that much oil in less than two days) 
The Political Page

CLR Reports Four Jersey DUCs -- October 4, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs593268190183

Four new permits:
  • Operator: Resource Energy Can-Am
  • Field: Blooming Prairie (Divide County)
  • Comments:
Six permits renewed:
  • Slawson (3): three Wolverine Federal permits, all in McKenzie County
  • Whiting (2): two Mallow permits, both in McKenzie County
  • XTO: a Dakota Federal permit in McKenzie County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 27995, 1,344, CLR, Jersey 3-6H1, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, t9/17; cum -- ;
  • 27996, 1,384, CLR, Jersey 2-6H2, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, t9/17; cum -- ;
  • 27997, 1,944, CLR, Jersey 1-6H, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, t9/17; cum -- ;
  • 28002, 1,359, CLR, Jersey 4-6H2, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, t9/17; cum -- ;

CLR's Jersey wells are tracked here.

Summary Of Daily Activity Report -- October 3, 2017; MRO Reports Three Huge Wells In Bailey Oil Field

I forgot to post this yesterday. Sorry.

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: Oasis (6), CLR (2)
  • Fields: Banks (McKenzie); Bear Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments: Oasis has permits for a 6-well Aagvik/Nelson pad in Banks oil field; NWNE 26-152-98
Nineteen permits renewed:
  • Petro-Hunt (5): three Mongoose permits and two Arsenal Federal permits, all in McKenzie County
  • QEP (4): four MHA permits in Dunn County
  • MRO (4): one Ness USA permit; one Beckky USA permit; one Hans USA permit; and, one Ballmeyer USA permit, all in SESE 8-151-93, Mountrail County
  • Crescent Point (2): two CPEUSC Keith wells in Williams County
  • SHD (2): one Rocky permit and one Mufasa permit, both in McLean County
  • HRC (2): two Borrud permits, both in Williams County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29630, 5,644, MRO, Clarice USA 14-9H, Bailey, 45 stages, 8.3 million lbs, t9/17; cum --
  • 29631, 3,070, MRO, Delia USA 14-9TFH, Bailey, Three Forks B1, 45 stages; 8.1 million lbs, t8/17; cum 11K over 6 days -- extrapolates to 56,385 bbls over a 30-day month;
  • 29634, 4,048, MRO, Double H 34-8TFH, Bailey, Three Forks B1, 45 stages, 8.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum --
  • 32911, 524, BR, Lillibridge 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 28 stages, 14.1 million lbs, t9/17; cum -- 
  • 32912, 413, BR, Lillibridge-Veeder 3E MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum --;
The MRO DUCs Reported Above

Existing wells:
  • 16677, AB/101, MRO, Beck 24-8H, Bailey, t12/07; cum 15K 1/10;
  • 16735, 296, MRO, Beck 14-8H, Bailey, t3/08; cum 179K 8/17; note recent production in spreadsheet below, API - 33-025000649, according to FracFocus, this well was re-fracked, 7/9/2017 - 7/27/2017:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Record IPs in the Bakken

Record IPs in the Bakken. If the IP for #29630 holds up and is not a typographical error it will go down as one of the bigger wells in the Bakken, but is not a record, but it certainly was close. I don't track production of wells in the first full month of production (or best month in the first six months) but it's very possible #29630 might have that record once we see the first six months of production.

Source: question #9, FAQs:

9. What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? (note "bo" vs "boe" - the former is bbls of oil; the latter is bbls of oil equivalent which includes crude oil and natural gas):
From the Whiting 1Q15 transcript: The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well (#27520) produced at an initial rate of 7,800 BOEs per day (6,002 bbls of crude oil/day IP) during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.
From a November 11, 2014, post (see also the November 25, 2014, post, same subject); The first well, in the Middle Bakken formation, was completed with 94 stages and was flowing 7,120 BOE/d on October 10, 2014, according to the operator. When the well was completed, it established a world record for number of stages in a single well.
Soon after, an offset well in the Upper Three Forks formation was completed with 104 stages. This well was flowing 7,824 BOE/d on October 11, 2014. This was a hybrid completion comprising 97 NCS GripShift cemented casing sleeves, with seven NCS BallShift cemented ball-drop sleeves in the lower section of the well. In both wells, all stages were successfully fractured.
More to follow: in 2Q14 earnings report, WLL: Tarpon Well Completed in 2nd Bench of Three Forks Flowing 6,071 boepd. Not a record in the Bakken -- see Statoil's #23992. But still, this is huge for the second bench.
Statoil reported an IP of 5,417 on September 26, 2013: #23992, Beaux 18-19 7H, Banks oil field. Based on its IP for natural gas (9,663), this well had an IP of 7,083 boepd
Statoil reported an IP of 5,387 on July 19, 2013: #23387, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks oil field. This might be a new record (this is the IP for crude oil only).
The initial production of any well, self-reported by the producer, is becoming less meaningful over time. Having said that, it looks like the record IP for a Bakken well is now 5,200a Newfield well (July, 2011): 18691, 5,200, NFX, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H, Westberg, Bakken.
Statoil reported on July 10, 2013: 23385, 5,070, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks, t6/13; cum -- ; 7 days to drill the lateral; I did not see completion data; 31 swell packers planned; 
Two earlier wells: a Whiting well which had an IP of 4,761 boepd: file #17612, 4,761 boepd IP, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Mountrail County, Sanish field.  This is still current as of February 20, 2010. Since then, BEXP claims to have set a record with the Sorenson 29-32 1-H, #18654, with a 24-hour flowback of 5,133 bopd. However, the NDIC reported an IP of 2,944. BEXP also reported the Jack Cvancara 19-18 #1H (this site is down) in the Ross project area with a 24-hour flowback of 5,035.
New record in the Bakken, November 3, 2011The Tarpon Federal 21-4H is a Whiting  Petroleum operated well and had a 24-hour initial production (IP) rate of 7,009 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), setting a new Williston Basin record for a Bakken well.
Whiting said this was a record TFS well at the time, early 2012, file #20526, Smith 34-12TFH, 2,446, 102K in first 4.5 months.

A Year Into The Trump Rally -- And This Market Simply Won't Quit -- T+256 -- October 4, 2017

The Close

All three major indices closed higher today -- very small increases, but increases nonetheless. The naysayers on CNBC are starting to come around to the fact that the rally seems genuine. Despite the headwinds the market keeps making small gains every day, it seems.

WTI closed below $50, trading at $49.90.

Original Post
All three indices are in new record territory.

New highs a the NYSE, 158 194 208, including: BRK-B, CAT, Cummins, GM, Home Depot, Lennar,
  • new lows: 5
US coal exports:

Cash 'n carry: Neel Kashkari (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) not being considered to be new Fed chief, according to "administration" and contrary to recent news report. Kevin Warsh is still on the short list. All from CNBC. Jay Powell in the mix. Janet Yellen might be a bit farther down the list.
Just Curious

The Saudi prince who will be king, his education (link):
He received his primary education in Riyadh, the country's capital, where he was ranked among the kingdom's top 10 students.
He obtained a Law degree from King Saud University, where he graduated second in his class. Throughout his time as a university student, Mohammed bin Salman was enrolled in various training programmes.
John Neely Kennedy, the junior US Senator from Louisiana:
He graduated in 1969 from Zachary High School, Zachary, Louisiana.
He finished magna cum laude in 1973 from Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, with a degree in Political Science, Philosophy, and Economics. At Vanderbilt, he was elected president of his senior class and named to Phi Beta Kappa.
After Vanderbilt, Kennedy received a J.D. degree in 1977 from the University of Virginia School of Law in Charlottesville, Virginia. At the University of Virginia School of Law, he was editor of the Virginia Law Review and was elected to the Order of the Coif.
In 1979, he earned a Bachelor of Civil Law degree with first class honours from Magdalen College, Oxford in England.
Prior to entering politics, Kennedy practiced law at the New Orleans and Baton Rouge firm of Chaffe McCall.

Huge Decline In US Crude Oil Inventories; Re-Balancing Drops To 41 Weeks -- October 4, 2017

US crude oil inventories: the original estimates were way off (posted last night). The EIA weekly petroleum report (a dynamic link) shows that there was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories: declining by 6.0 million bbls. The number of weeks to "re-balance" decreased from 46 weeks to 41 weeks with that data:

Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

Week 1
May 3, 2017
Week 2
May 10, 2017
Week 3
May 17, 2017
Week 4
May 24, 2017
Week 5
May 31, 2017
Week 6
June 7, 2017
Week 7
June 14, 2017
Week 8
June 21, 2017
Week 9
June 28, 2017
Week 10
July 6, 2017
Week 11
July 12, 2017
Week 12
July 19, 2017
Week 13
July 26, 2017
Week 14
August 2, 2017
Week 15
August 9, 2017
Week 16
August 16, 2017
Week 17
August 23, 2017
Week 18
August 30, 2017
Week 19
September 7, 2017
Week 20
September 13, 2017
Week 21
September 20, 2017
Week 22
September 27, 2017
Week 23
October 4, 2017

Other data from the weekly report:
  • refineries are still operating well below maximum capacity; currently at 88.1%
  • gasoline production virtually unchanged at almost 10 million bbls/day
  • again, distillate fuel production increased, average almost 5 million bbls/day
  • US crude oil imports were down a bit but more than 10% below last year
  • at 465.0 million bbls of crude oil in US inventories, this is in the upper half of the average range
  • distillate fuel inventories are in the lower half of the average range despite increased production
More on this, from Reuters:
  • US crude stocks (as noted above) "fell sharply, much greater than forecast
  • the forecast was for a drawdown of less than a million bbls (756,000 bbls to be exact)
  • instead, inventories  fell by 6 million bbls
  • and then this: US crude exports rose to almost 2 million bbls / day
  • why the world loves WTI: it's $5/bbl cheaper than Brent (yes, I know that pesky little thing called transportation)
  • strategists viewed Brent as pricey after a third-quarter rally lifted it to mid-2015 highs by late September. A resumption in output at Libya's Sharara oilfield fed the concerns
  • meanwhile, US ouput hit 9.56 million bopd at the end of September, highest since July, 2015; AND, US drillers added six more oil rigs in the week ending September 29
What's all this mean for the recent rally in Brent? At the linked article,
"Fundamentals may not yet be strong enough to support a continued rally, especially in growth-dependent commodities such as oil," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, said in a quarterly outlook to investors.
Re-read that last line and then look at the charts at this link. I particularly enjoy this one: