Sunday, March 6, 2016

Random Look At A Madison Well In A New Oil Field In North Dakota That Will Be Coming Off The Confidential List Monday -- March 6, 2016; This May Be The Smallest Oil Field In The Williston Basin (It Would Be Hard To Get Much Smaller)


March 7, 2016: After middle Bakken wells have been on-line for awhile, maybe into their 2nd year or 3rd year or 4th year or later, it's not uncommon to see them decline to 4,000 - 6,000 bbls/month for awhile before continuing the Bakken decline. There is a suggestion that the good Madison wells, on the other hand, maintain a 5,000 bbls/month for quite some time. One can see some great Madison wells at the "Monster Well" page.

Also, judge for yourself, but I think production may have gone up a bit in the existing wells after a neighboring well was stimulated (not fracked) among the three wells below. 

Original Post
This regards a Madison well in a new oil field in North Dakota that will come off the confidential list Monday. This is a long note: there will be typographical and factual errors; if this information is important to you, go to the source. I am posting this only to help me better understand the Williston Basin.

At the bottom of this post is a screenshot of Chatfield oil field taken back on October 21, 2015. It hasn't changed much; one more permit/location (#32141) is now in the southwest "section" of this very small field, and of course #29622 which is also new, but that's about it. (By the way, I have called this a 2-section field; that's incorrect. The entire Chatfield oil field right now is the NW quarter of section 30 and another quarter section in section 19, both in T159N R81W. It's a small field: 320 acres, half a section.)

Back on September 29, 2014, I noted that I had not been able to find Chatfield oil field on the GIS map (maybe I missed it, but I doubt it); I opined that it might be the first new oil field in the Williston Basin since the Cottonwood.

It's a Madison oil field.

Tomorrow the third Chatfield field oil well comes off the confidential list. This will provide an opportunity to update the other completed wells. The one coming off the confidential list on Monday is:
  • 29622, 186, Berenergy, Borstad 30-3,  Chatfield, 160 acres, spud September 6, 2015; TD, 4,667 fee, September 11; t10/15; cum 19K 1/16;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The other two producing wells in Chatfield oil field:
  • 27319, 600, Ballard Petroleum, Fines 24-19, Chatfield (this was a wildcat field at the time the permit was issued), a Madison well, a vertical, t6/14; cum 82K 1/16;
  • 29807, 352, Ballard, Nelson 34-19, Chatfield (still a wildcat, near Glenelms [sic]), 160-acre spacing, a Madison well, a short diagonal, spud January 13, 2015; reached TD, January 22, 2015; 4,700 feet; t3/15; cum 63K 1/16;
Both wells were taken off-line for the entire month of November, 2015. It will be interesting to see when #29622 was stimulated (it was not fracked so it was not on FracFocus); it appears the well was stimulated sometime in October, 2015. We will see tomorrow.

Just to add some fun to this, note the production profile of the other two wells about this time. First:
  • 27319, Fines 24-19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 29807, Nelson 34-19:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic below is/was the screenshot taken some time ago (as noted above). The well coming off confidential Monday is 1,160 feet south -- due south -- of #27319.

By the way, my hunch is the Chatfield oil field will be extended to include two new "Chatfield" wells currently on confidential and lying right out the oil field: #31222 and #31307. The NDIC scout ticket identifies both of them as "Chatfield wells."

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Weekend, Monday -- At Least One More DUC, Possibly Three -- March 6, 2016

Monday, March 7, 2016
  • 30497, 661, CLR, Burr Federal 13-26H, Sanish, t1/16; cum 18K 1/16; this was a DUC, but it's very interesting; see this link;
  • 31141, 1,008, BR, C.E. Stroh 4A MBH-ULW, Fayette, 4 sections, t1/16; cum 2K 11 days;
  • 31759, 2,472, BR, CCU Boxcar 4-7-22TFH, Corral Creek, t12/15; cum 19K 1/16;
Sunday, March 6, 2016
  • 28651, 1,471, Slawson, Nightmaker 6-8-17TFH, Baker, t9/15; cum 31K 1/16;
  • 29622, 186, Berenergy, Borstad 30-3,  Chatfield, producing, looks like a pretty decent well; see this note also; t10/15; cum 19K 1/16;
  • 31090, 864, BR, E.H. Stroh 4B MBH-ULW, Cabernet, 4 sections, t2/16; cum 301 bbls 13 days;
Saturday, March 5, 2016
  • 31430, SI/NC, EOG, Liberty 33-1423H, Parshall, no production data

29622, see above, Berenergy, Borstad 30-3,  Chatfield:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Pilot Shortage Hits Regional Airlines -- March 6, 2016; Compare Paris Public Transportation With That Of Paris

Pilot short hits regional airlines, AFP/Yahoo! is reporting. The article is "all about pay" with a few other work schedule / management / government regulations thrown in. But the gist of the article: all about pay, most of which sounded like the talk I heard 20 years while I was stationed overseas, assigned to a heavy aircraft squadron in which the pilots talked daily about whether to stay in the USAF or go to work for the airlines. The article does not mention the two 800-lb gorillas in the room:
  • the demise of the feeder team (farm team, farm system); and,
  • ObamaCare.
I won't talk about ObamaCare because that has more to do with the pay issue and how it affects the regional airlines in general which is the gist of the article.

The article did not mention another huge problem: the demise of the farm team for the regional airlines: the USAF.

A 20-year retiree would very likely take a "lower paying" regional airline job because his military retirement pay and medical benefits might provide the margin the pilot/family required. The military pension system is changing and I have not kept up with it, but my understanding is that active duty members leaving before their twenty years are up do have a military "pension" of some sort, albeit significantly lower.

But it would be interesting to know how the move from manned aircraft to drones in the USAF has contributed to the shortage of regional airline pilots.

Paris Subway Expanding

Link in The Atlantic.

This is really quite an incredible story. I was stationed in Germany for seven or eight or nine years -- time goes by, I forget -- and visited Paris on a regular basis. Of all the places I've been, I would have to say Paris is our favorite city (our: my wife and me). London is my favorite 2nd big city, but the difference between Paris and London is huge. Paris is in its own league among the cities I have visited.

But I digress. The point of all that is to say that my comments about the story at the link are probably really, really biased.

In Paris, public transportation worked. Even better than London. We went everywhere by light rail / subway in Paris -- quickly and efficiently. From the linked article, it is obvious I missed a lot, but still, a great system.

Now, Paris is in the process of improving an already excellent system even more. This comes at a time when Boston is cutting back light rail services, and California's bullet train seems mired in more red tape than ever before.

When you go to the link, if you do, and if you have not had the pleasure of visiting Paris, go first to the artist's rendering of one of the passenger stations, one of the terminals. The station at St-Denis will be the project's largest train station. Designed by the Japanese architect Kengo Kuma, the junction is expected to handle 250,000 passengers a day. Yes, you read that correctly: 250,000 passengers a day.

For $25 billion, the French will get that world-class train terminal plus:
  • four new lines
  • 68 stations
  • 120 more miles of track
Compare that to what one gets for $65 billion in California for the bullet train:
  • lots of track; much of it currently going to "nowhere"
  • some locomotives; some passenger cars
  • four train stations: Bay Area, Merced, Bakersfield, Los Angeles
But look at what you get with the $25 billion in France:
  • one track will connect Versailles with Orly Airport;
  • another track will connect Orly Airport with Paris itself;
  • a third track, most ambitious, and in some sense, most important, will provide a complete ring aroudn the city of Paris, something it has not had;
  • a fourth track will connect the city to the Charles De Gaulle Airport;
  • a fifth track will be another arc of track along the far outside northeast Paris; and,
  • and, a six track will connect France's second busiest railroad station with the rest of the system

The Humor Page: February, 2016, Atmospheric CO2 Posted -- Saturday, March 5, 2016

In January, 2016, the previous month, atmospheric CO2 was 402.52 according to the same source, same location.

From 402.52 to 404.16 is a 0.25% change.

400/1,000,000 = 0.04%.

402.52/1,000,000 = 0.04%

404.16/1,000,000 = 0.04%

According to wiki, just to help keep things in perspective:
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important trace gas in Earth's atmosphere currently constituting about 0.04% (400 parts per million) of the atmosphere.
Reconstructions show that concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have varied, ranging from as high as 7,000 parts per million during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago to as low as 180 parts per million during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years.
There are credible reports that we may have dodged a "silver bullet": had CO2 continued to decrease we may have experienced a worsening Cold Age. The "Dinosaur Era" had CO2 concentrations 5 times higher than current CO2 levels.

I can go back to sleep now.

What Else Might Be On That San Bernardino iPhone?

From a comment over at Macrumors, it could also hold the...
  • Secrets to Life, the Universe, and Everything (42)
  • Nuclear Launch Codes (000000000 - Kennedy was afraid that he would forget them)
  • The lost books of the Bible (What did Moses and Jesus do on their days off?)
  • The highest word score possible for a good game of Scrabble (No, JXQUIZ isn't a word)
  • What the San Bernardino terrorists had for lunch that day (wait, that's already on Facebook)
  • How men can know what women are thinking (If this makes you mad, well, how was I supposed to know?)
  • The sports scores for every T-Ball game for the next 50 years (Back to the Future reference)
  • My lost homework from 8th grade (Started a downward trend that kept me off of the volleyball team)
  • The Lost Hits of Hansen, 2005-2015 (I do have a pirate recording of them in concert...)
  • Where Nicolas Cage put the roll of microfiche he found in "The Rock" (according to JHUFrank) 
Boogie Woogie Blowout

Mitch Woods' Boogie Woogie Blowout featuring Pinetop Perkins

Random Update On New Williston High School -- March 8, 2016

My maps are usually "off" a little bit but I think this is fairly close (the landing strip at the new airport will run from the northwest to the southeast, and the airport footprint will be oriented similarly, rather than north-south as in the graphic):

For an update on the construction of the new Williston High School, see this video taken in February, 2016:

I wonder if this video was taken by a drone?

Artists' renderings of the architects plans at this site.

When I last visited Williston in early February, 2016, apparently just a day or two before the above video was shot, I heard rumors that there was already talk the school would not be "big enough" for the number of students expected to enroll. The school is on schedule to open for the 2016 - 2017 school year.

For more videos of construction in Williston from Redline Development Services:

Redline provides Surveying, Engineering, and Construction services in Williston, North Dakota and the Bakken region. Their website is "under construction."

Surge In US Crude Oil Imports Is Staggering Considering The Glut Of US Oil; US Crude Oil Import Data For December, 2015, Has Been Posted -- March 8, 2016

All country data.

Saudi Arabia data only.

Some observations:

John Kemp has recently noted that crude oil imports into the US have increased significantly over the past few months. Most recently, he noted that US imports are now up to 7 million bopd. This is confirmed by the December, 2015, data.  Total OPEC crude oil imported into the US in November, 2015, was 95 million bbls; in December, 2015, it surged to 101 million bbls.

US imports from Saudi Arabia has stabilized somewhat; the huge increase in oil from OPEC has been from Iraq: 8 million bbls in November, 2015; 14 million bbls in December, 2015.

Outside of OPEC:
  • Brazil has recovered from a dismal month in November, 2015
  • Canadian imports into the US have surged
  • Mexican imports have remained steady 
This is really quite remarkable. Back between 2000 and 2005, the amount of crude oil stored in the US (not including the SPR) was less than 19 days of supply; most recently that number has soared to 33 days, source:

Look at that huge surge from January, 2015, to April, 2015, in just four months, jumping from 23 to 30 days of storage.