Wednesday, January 9, 2019

The Dreaded Bakken Decline -- January 9, 2019

The well:
  • 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Day, t9/18; cum 326K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
  • 33393, 3,242, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HD, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 275K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
  • 33366, 2,940, WPX Energy, Hidatsa North 14-23HZ, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 321K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
  • 33394, 2,783, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23C, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 266K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Day 19 Of The "Partial" Government Shutdown -- And GOP Senators Are Starting To Get Antsy -- OMG -- January 9, 2019

See this link.
So… NASA and the EPA can maintain essential operations with only 5% of their workforce, evolutionary biologists are nonessential drains on the taxpayers, NOAA meteorologists can’t attend the American Meteorological Society convention on the taxpayers’ dime… Maybe I’m just a bit jaded, but how does the word “vital” fit in here?  Can you think of a better example of a nonessential government employee than an evolutionary biologist?
See this link. The climate paper most widely covered by the media in 2018 was actually a call for global socialism.

Schelosi in pictures

Elites only. Meanwhile, in Disneyland. Disneyland raises prices -- by a lot. Least expensive, about $104/day but generally during the summer tickets will be $149/day. Outrageous, some say. Check out the price of ski lift tickets before getting too excited. Best price at Vail might be around $200/day. And for that you get about six rides up the hill. If you've ever been to Disneyland, you might agree that cutting attendance by 25% daily might improve the experience for those who still go to Disneyland. I've been to Disneyland more times than I have fingers but I have never been to Disney World. 

WTI Trending Higher; Active Rigs In North Dakota Holding Steady; Five New Permits -- January 9, 2019

Gasoline demand, link here:

Jet fuel: readers of the blog have noted US jet fuel pricing over the past few weeks. Screenshot from oilprice today:

Comment: if the trend for WTI continues (and the tea leaves suggest the trend will continue) it's very possible that folks who have been accumulating shares in publicly traded oil companies over the past few weeks may have done the right thing. I don't know. I'm not following the market, but the move over the past few days has been quite remarkable. Someone must be making some money.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Peak ... what? Peak ...? See Mark Perry today. LOL.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs64533758167

Five new permits
  • Operators: XTO (4); Whiting
  • Fields: North Fork (McKenzie); Elk (McKenzie)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 4-well Badlands Federal pad in 13-149-97; Whiting has a permit for Nelsen welll in lot 4, section 2-151-102;
EOG temporarily abandoned two West Clark wells in McKenzie County; and a Fertile well in Mountrail County

One permit renewed: a Whiting permit in Williams County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34710, 2,048, Whiting, Vance 11-17-4H, Truax, t12/18; cum --;
  • 34706, 1,302, Whiting, Vance 11-17H,  Truax, t12/18; cum 1,230 bbls over two days which extrapolates to 18,450 bbls over 30 days; #22189;

A "Perceived" Shortage Can Be Worse Than "Real" Shortage -- Road To Mexico -- January 9, 2019


January 11, 2019: spiraling out of control -- oilprice

January 10, 2019: the shortage continues. After denying that there was any fuel shortage, the Mexican government is now commandeering private trucks to bring gasoline/diesel to service stations.

Original Post 

Link at -- fuel shortages reach Mexico City.

The new president of Mexico has been president for less than two months. If I recall correctly, there has been no fuel shortage in Mexico for decades? Certainly years. But here "they" are -- less than two months into the new presidency -- and "they" have fuel shortages in the capital.

From the linked article and comments:
  • apparently the gasoline shortages were sparked by fuel theft -- that's interesting in and of itself speaks volumes about how the private sector operates -- perhaps to escape federal taxes? I don't know ... 
  • Pemex says there were no shortages -- "Baghdad Bob"?
  • authorities worried that panic buying could result in "real" shortages
  • the Mexican military took control of 58 key fuel installations in the country (does this sound like Venezuela?)
  • "within and outside" -- "within and without" -- The Great Gatsby floats by
  • apparently theft jumped from $500,000 / year in the late 2000s to $3 billion in 2018

It Gets Tedious -- But Someone Has To Do It -- January 9, 2019

From after today's numbers came out:

By the end of the day, WTI was trading up 5.18%; up $2.58; and trading at $52.36. Oil prices slipping. WTI was up all day.

Hot Spots -- Literally -- In The Williston Basin -- January 9, 2019

The link was sent to me by Don.

From Geo News, this will probably load as a PDF on your desk top.

Posting and Pending

EIA's weekly petroleum report. Link here. Will the EIA confirm API's report of a huge weekly draw?
  • US crude oil weekly inventories: decreased by 1.7 million bbls
  • US crude oil weekly inventories: 439.7 million bbls; now 8% (last week 7%) above the five-year average (and note: the five year average has been increasing over the past couple of years)
  • gasoline inventories increased by 8 million bbls and are about 5% above the 5-year average
  • refiners operating at 96.1% capacity, down slightly
  • look how much jet fuel supplied has dropped: down 10% compared with same four-week period last year; it had been higher compared to last year for much of the past year, if I recall correctly
  • how did WTI respond after the report? WTI traded above $51. Trading at $51.11 now.
Gasoline demand, link here:

Apple slashes iPhone production for second time in two months; demand woes worse than anticipated. Production to be slashed 10% over next three months. Over at ZeroHedge.

France to ban all protests; will stop "yellow vest" movement. Over at ZeroHedge.

Wow! S&P downgrades PG&E to junk, launching countdown to $800 million collateral call. Over at ZeroHedge.

Global Warming Around The World

  • Moscow: -15F
  • Hokkaido, Japan: heavy snow strands 2,000 at airport
  • Alps: massive snowfall kills severn
  • central Europe: heavy snow traps hundreds
  • Iran: heavy snowfall strands 4,100
  • Kashmir: heavy snowfall blankets the region
  • Turkey: reports heavy snowfall
  • Mexico: thousands of crops damaged by snow in Sonora; experiences fifth and six winter storms of the season
  • Iceagenoe also reports that both the Arctic and the Antarctic sea ice now at historic high levels
For The Record

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice now at historic high levels, but for Algore and his singeries, facts don't matter. Link here. In addition, in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, the sea surface temperatures have been cooling since 1979. But again, facts don't matter.

T+64 -- Trump Squares Off On Schelosi -- Won't Back Down -- January 9, 2019

Into the danger zone:

Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins

Won't back down:

I Won't Back Down, Tom Petty
Dan Rather and the birth of fake news: Tomorrow the new FOX News online operation called Fox Nation will debut the documentary Black Eye: Dan Rather and the Birth of Fake News. From Powerline.  

US Crude Oil Production To Grow About 1 Million BOPD Through 2024; 60% Of That Growth From The Permian -- January 9, 2019

Divorce: it appears Mrs Jeff Bezos wants to monetize her marriage.

Peak oil? Hardly. Saudi Arabia revises up its reserves estimate to 268.5 billion bbls. Previously: 268 billion bbls. LOL. An increase of 0.5 billion bbls = 0.19% increase. There's a little confusion there: Saudi Arabia state figures say that the previous estimate was 266 billion bbls although wiki has had it at 268 billion bbls for quite time time. If 2.5 increase, then 2.5/266 = 0.9%. The precision seems a bit ludicrous. Venezuela? 2011 estimate of 297 billion bbls. Back to Saudi Arabia: at 30 million bopd, 270 billion bbls will last 24 years. Having said that, Saudi Arabia reserves estimates have never dropped in the last 50 years?

China-US trade talks, extended a third day, have ended. Positive message to be released tomorrow, Thursday, January 10, 2019.

LOOP: I think one could devote an entire blog to the LOOP. See below. 

Site added to the sidebar at the right: powerline. 

Price hike: in the local area, north Texas, overnight, regular unleaded jumped by about 20 cents/gallon, now around $1.99 / gallon to $2.09 / gallon. Was about $1.79 until the jump.

Back to the Bakken

Only one well coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, January 9, 2018:
  • 26348, 492, NP Resources, DeMores Federal 21-11PH, Three Forks, 24 stages; 4.5 million lbs, DeMores; t7/18; cum 33K 11/18;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs63533758167

RBN Energy: suddenly, a slew of gulf coast loadings onto VLCCs.
In 2018, a handful of midstream companies started racing to develop deepwater export terminals along the Gulf Coast that can fully load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) with 2 MMbbl of crude oil from the Permian and other plays. While some of those companies are moving toward final investment decisions (FIDs) that would bring their plans to fruition in the early 2020s, terminal operators with existing VLCC-capable assets — both onshore and offshore — turned up the volume in a major way in December.
Today, we outline the strides made in recent days by the export programs of the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), Seaway Texas City and Moda Midstream.The U.S. is now the largest oil-producing country in the world — recently surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia — with output at 11.7 MMb/d per the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ended December 28 (2018) and averaging 10.8 MMb/d for the full year. Additionally, RBN’s mid-case scenario forecasts that volume will grow by about 900 Mb/d each year to 16.2 MMb/d by 2024, with 60% of that growth coming from the Permian. Figure 1 below shows our latest view of where U.S. crude production is headed.
Amad: yesterday it was the Amad that had departed the LOOP. The Amad, now just north of Cuba, can be tracked here. Bound for KR YOS -- Port of Yeosu, Korea. ETA: February 26, 2019.

LOOP: from the linked RBN Energy note above --
In today’s market, there’s only one existing terminal that can fully load a VLCC in one fell swoop — that’s the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, off Port Fourchon, LA. In February 2018 LOOP kicked off its export program, loading an entire supertanker for shipment to China. They did it again in March, and then sent out one a month from June through September. The exports out of LOOP quieted for a few months as the facility worked on expanding its capacity to load tankers at a faster rate.
When December rolled around, LOOP showed off its new upgrades to the market by loading three supertankers — about 6 MMbbl of crude in total — in a matter of only seven days. That’s impressive — it had never been done before — but companies like Enterprise Products Partners have indicated that their planned offshore terminals will be capable of more than doubling that pace — to as many as  seven supertankers in a week’s time.
While LOOP remains way ahead of the curve in terms of its VLCC-loading capabilities, the folks at LOOP weren’t the only ones making a splash last month. The export hub in Ingleside, TX, located in the northeast corner of the Port of Corpus Christi, has made a lot of headlines over the last couple of years. In May 2017, when the property was still owned by Occidental Petroleum and dubbed the Oxy Ingleside Energy Center (OIEC), Oxy and the port held a very public ceremony as the VLCC Anne was brought to the dock to test if it would even be possible to partially load crude onto a VLCC from OIEC someday (see photo below.) The experiment confirmed that, yes, it could get done, with a few relatively minor modifications. In August 2018, Oxy announced a deal to sell the terminal to Moda Midstream, and in December 2018, Moda completed the improvements needed to partially load VLCCs at the hub and got to work.