Friday, November 8, 2024

Apache To Exit North Sea -- Windfall Tax Makes The Play "Non-Economical" -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48742B.

"Keeping Families Together": I fully support this program but the president doesn't have the authority to do this unilaterally -- at least that's what the left is reminding us about what Trump might do. We still have a constitution. This is Civics 101.

Speaking of which: the left wants a 70-year-old Supreme Court justice to step down immediately so that Biden can appoint a younger justice to take her place. Hope springs eternal.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 37.

Five new permits, #41324 - #31328, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Manitou (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for five more EN-Rice wells, SWSW 11-155-94, 
      • to be sited 462 FSL and between 721 FWL and 853 FWL.

Five permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill: five Tufto permits, NWNE 18-155-100, Cow Creek, Williams County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37834, 5,794, MRL, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, 2560-acre spacing, sections 28 / 29 / 32 / 33 - 152-93; from file report, looks like seven wells to be sited on the pad; standard Bakken two-mile horizontal laterals. Laterals pretty much entirely within sections 33 / 28.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-202429300873013537300331723309110
BAKKEN8-2024286608565990689976490664605188
  • 40595, 1,125, CLR, Doe 4-23H, Murphy Creek, Dunn County, npd.

Well of interest (re: #37834, Betty Lou USA):

  • 26807, 2,704/recently off line, just coming back on line, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 577K 5/24;

Week 45: November 3, 2024 -- November 9, 2024

Locator: 48743TOPSTORIES.

Will Trump be on the cover of Time Magazine? Will he be named Person of the Year?

From Geoff Simon last week:

  • breaking through that glass ceiling: Republican Julie Fedorchak will be the first woman to represent North Dakota in the US House of Representatives
  • North Dakota ex-gov Doug Burgum might be Trump's energy czar.
  • Michele Strinden: lieutenant governor: another woman breaking the glass ceiling
  • DAPL back in the news
  • NoDaks don't mind paying property taxes; voters said "no" to repeal the state's assessment-based property tax system

Top story of the week

  • Donald Trump: 47th President of the United States of America

Top international non-energy story:

  • foreign leaders race to be the first to congratulate Donald Trump!

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story:

  • from last week, this did not age well: if polls are correct, Harris will win by a landslide
  • from last week, this  looks like "dirty tricks": polls suggesting Iowa had flipped to Harris 
  • Bill Maher predicted a Harris victory
  • how does a candidate who spent $1 billion on a campaign lose to a convicted convict?

Top national energy story:


Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

The market in a nutshell: an incredible week for the market -- after Trump's win -- "animal spirits" were let loose --

All Major Indices Set New Records At Close Today -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48741INVESTING.

Solar sitting it out.  

The chart of the day:


**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Toyota: EV Mandates In California Are "Impossible" -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48740TOYOTA.

We all knew this.

No one was willing to say it.

The Trump election gives automobile manufacturers the cover they need to start speaking the truth.

Link here.

Unless "things" change ... we're going to find some huge dealerships in Primm, Nevada. And lots of on-line ordering of cars from out-of-state.

Meanwhile, Governor Newsom will use the "special session" to shore up sanctuary cities.

***************************
Bill Maher Predicts A Kamala Harris Victory

Link here.


It's hard for me to wait until midnight tonight to watch SkyNews "Lefties Losing It."

Update On Apple's M5 -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48739AAPL.

Updates

November 29, 2024: SoIC.
November 29, 2024: Apple orders the M5 chip for for delivery in late 2025.

Original Post

The Apple M5.

Link here.

Work on the M5 and A19 was said to have started back in 2023, suggesting that the company wanted to stay well ahead of the competition. In Mark Gurman’s latest ‘Power On’ newsletter, the Bloomberg correspondent reveals that updated iPad Pro models will arrive in the second half of 2025, with the display sizes remaining unchanged at 11 inches and 13 inches. Both tablets are said to feature the codenames J607 and J637, and given that it is the first time that Apple introduced tandem OLED technology last year, the technology giant should have no reason or encouragement to switch to a different panel.

For all those wondering if Apple will transition to TSMC’s next-generation 2nm process for the M5, we highly doubt it.
Instead, the new chipset could be mass produced on the 3nm ‘N3P’ node, which is the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer's third variant after ‘N3E,’ which was used to fabricate the M4, A18, and the A18 Pro.
Earlier, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo commented that Apple will not introduce any 2nm chipset in 2025 due to insanely high wafer costs and predicted that the launch of silicon on such advanced lithography would happen in 2026 when Apple announces the iPhone 18 series.

One advantage that the M5 could flaunt over predecessors is that it could employ TSMC’s Small Outline Integrated Circuit Packaging, or SoIC. This type of packaging was first introduced in 2018 and allows the stacking of chips in a three-dimensional structure, resulting in better thermal management, reduced current leakage, and better electrical performance compared to the two-dimensional chip design. The specifications of the M5 are currently unknown, but a move to the improved 3nm process can mean that Apple may have the liberty to add more performance cores, just like what it did with the M4.

*************************
Meanwhile, The Mess Over At Intel Continues

Link here.

A Linux patch suggests that Intel engineers plan to implement a feature that tags your system as vulnerable if you're running outdated microcodes, (via Phoronix). This comes in light of the recent Intel 13th Generation and 14th Generation degradation fiasco, which is now pushing Team Blue towards a class action lawsuit.

The patch argues that you cannot run a system with old microcode and consider it safe. Microcode is basically a set of instructions in the CPU that can be updated post-launch to fix critical flaws and security vulnerabilities. The patch proposes that users should be informed clearly and concisely that their PC is potentially unsafe - marking the system as vulnerable or not vulnerable. The author calls to report this vulnerability in "/sys/devices/system/cpu/vulnerabilities/old_microcode", so that a single file can be used to prompt the user to update their microcode.

Update, Saturday, November 9, 2024: with regard to the "mess over at Intel," link here:


Or, direct to The Verge.

From the linked article:

Reviews of Intel’s new Arrow Lake-based Core Ultra 9 200S-series processor have been lackluster, specifically when it comes to gaming performance, but Intel says that’s not the end of the story.
Its new chips should be performing better, and the company will have an ETA on getting them there soon, according to Robert Hallock, Intel’s VP and GM of client AI and technical marketing, in a new interview with HotHardware’s Dave Altavilla and Marco Chiappetta.
Intel was up-front in saying these new chips wouldn’t beat AMD’s chips for gaming. But reviewers’ findings have been unexpectedly poor. Despite some efficiency gains like those noted in Tom Warren’s Verge review of the Core Ultra 9 285K, the new chip seems to lag behind even Intel’s earlier Raptor Lake chips in gaming. That’s to say nothing of its performance versus AMD’s very good Ryzen 9800X3D.

It will be interesting to see if analysts read these reports.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 4 -- Everything, Everywhere Happening All At Once -- Now? Special Counsel Jack Smith Seeks Pause In Pursuing Trump -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48738CRAMER.

Cites "unprecedented circumstance."  Link here.

Jack Smith to step down December 2, 2024?

Trump’s win against Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this week was considered a death knell for Smith’s prosecutions against him.
Trump has said he plans to fire Smith, and is expected to force the DOJ to end the prosecutions.
And DOJ policy effectively bars the department from prosecuting a president while in office.

It's going to feel like an eternity.

Lefties losing it? More tears

Time for more music. 

It's been one of those mornings. Link here. Probably the best song for those, regardless of the reality, have declared victory and moved on.


Movies to watch this weekend:
  • Asteroid City
  • Kinky Boots
  • Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

********************
Inflation Watch

Last year: turkey -- 98 cents / pound.

This year, a few weeks ago, turkey, 88 cents / pound.

Today, Target, turkey, 79 cents / pound. 

Thank you, president-elect Trump.

***********************
Geo-Politics

Mar-A-Lago.

Trump-Zelensky-Musk -- conference call. 

As noted earlier: Trump's team will hit the ground running.

The worst thing the opposition could have done for Trump: give him a "gap year" to prepare -- in this case, a "gap term."

One wonders how much / how deep Palantir is involved.

***********************
The Market

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- Dow Hits New Record High -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48737CRAMER.

All eyes on S&P 500 -- 6,000 again.

HOLY MACKEREL: the Dow tops 44,000 for the first time as it closes out its best week in a year on Trump's election win! And although it has pulled back today, the S&P crossed 6,000 for the first time ever, yesterday! Whoo-hoo! 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Fiscal conservatives: it's a hoot to see all the lefties who have become fiscal conservatives now that Trump has taken the White House. He won the popular vote and the electoral college. Both were landslide victories. As for Trump: he loves spending money, as long as it's not his. But isn't that true of almost everyone?

SCHB: hits a new 52-week high.

Immigration: amazing how many folks in ivory towers want the president to ignore the laws of the country. Pretty amazing. 

I do believe the president takes an oath to execute faithfully the laws of the country. His oath is not to "pick and choose" which laws he wants to follow (even though, yes, I know). I don't think folks get it. It's amazing how many folks in ivory towers support the exploitation of undocumented arrivals and human trafficking as long as it's "good" for the overall economy.

SRE: [later: SRE is now just three cents short of $91.] [Later: wow, wow, wow -- SRE surged past $91!]

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

**************************
Word of the Day: Coursing

Coursing.

As in "coursing hounds."

*******************
Today's Rabbit Hole

It began with this, p. 62, Richard Dawkins, The Genetic Book of the Dead in which the author references "the words of David Hume's Cleanthes ... the mutual escalation of arms races that drives evolution to Cleanthean heights, such as the feats of mimetic camouflage..." 

Earlier, Richard Dawkins wrote: "I think arms races are responsible for every biological design impressive enough to ravish into admiration all men who have ever contemplated biological designs. Original quote: David Hume's Cleanthes. 

From there to Cleanthes, wiki. And from there to stoicism, again, wiki.

The Stoics believed that the practice of virtue is enough to achieve eudaimonia: a well-lived life. The Stoics identified the path to achieving it with a life spent practicing the four virtues in everyday lifewisdom, courage, temperance or moderation, and justice—as well as living in accordance with nature. It was founded in the ancient Agora of Athens by Zeno of Citium around 300 BCE.

Alongside Aristotle's ethics, the Stoic tradition forms one of the major founding approaches to virtue ethics.
The Stoics are especially known for teaching that "virtue is the only good" for human beings, and that external things, such as health, wealth, and pleasure, are not good or bad in themselves (adiaphora) but have value as "material for virtue to act upon."
Many Stoics—such as Seneca and Epictetus—emphasized that because "virtue is sufficient for happiness," a sage would be emotionally resilient to misfortune. The Stoics also held that certain destructive emotions resulted from errors of judgment, and they believed people should aim to maintain a will (called prohairesis) that is "in accordance with nature."
Because of this, the Stoics thought the best indication of an individual's philosophy was not what a person said but how a person behaved.
To live a good life, one had to understand the rules of the natural order since they believed everything was rooted in nature.

As for David Hume?

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- Dow Hits New Record High -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48737CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Dow hits new record high.  

Consumer sentiment: 73.0 vs 71.0 expected! And those numbers would have been coming in prior to the outcome of the election.

New administration: everyone coming out of the woodwork -- they all want to be part of this excitement, part of this new administration! Wow. All of a sudden it's "in" to get a photo with the new president. Maybe we'll see Melania on the front cover of some fashion magazine this year. I'm not holding my breath.

Path to 218: the US House.

NVDA, Sherwin-Williams: joins the Dow today. Whoo-hoo! Nvidia (NVDA): first company in history to hit a market cap of $3.6 trillion. Meanwhile, Tesla hits the $1 trillion market cap milestone.


TSMC October 2024 revenue report, just released. Double-digit growth m/m; y/y.

Palantir: will be huge beneficiary of "deportation" issue.

SRE: chart of the day. I've always considered this a $60 stock (split adjusted). One of my biggest holdings; have had it for decades. Cost basis? LOL.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48736CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Automobile manufacturers: a recession; it's only going to get worse. 

Bingo card: add "transactional" to your TRUMP bingo card. The middle space remains: hyperscalers. Also, add "guardrails" to your new TRUMP bingo card. Add "animal spirits" to your new TRUMP bingo card.

EOG: beats on top and bottom line.

  • revenue: reported at $5,965 million for Q3 2024, exceeding analyst estimates of $5,530.84 million. 
  • net income: achieved $1,673 million in Q3 2024, reflecting a robust financial performance. 
  • GAAP EPS: diluted earnings per share stood at $2.95 for Q3 2024, showcasing strong profitability.
  • operating income: recorded at $2,089 million, indicating solid operational efficiency. 
  • free cash flow: generated $3,588 million from operations, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. 
  • dividends: declared a dividend of $0.9100 per share, maintaining shareholder returns.

China: $1.4 trillion stimulus package. But China not giving up on failing / failed economic policy.

Apple (AAPL): is AAPL dead money for the next ten years?

 It was a great year!


Most recent map
. I did not hear on Morning Joe, MSNBC reporting that Arizona and / or Nevada are turning red. Yet to be called?


Sotomayor: faces calls to retire? LOL. She's not going anywhere.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

 ******************************
The Book Page

Arrived yesterday.



Trump Breaks Glass Ceiling -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48735B.

California: says it all.

COS: Trump getting a lot of kudos for his chief of staff selection. Trump broke the glass ceiling.

Morning television: has now become much more challenging. I used to watch only CNBC. Now, I watch Morning Joe, The View, LiveNow from Fox, Mornings With Maria B. At midnight I catch up on the daily news watching SkyNews.  I'm going to have to add a fourth screen: I have three -- but will now need a fourth.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.19.

Sunday, November 10, 2024: 14 for the month; 14 for the quarter, 588 for the year

  • 42323, conf, Grayson Mill Operating, Hovland 26-35 XE 1H,
  • 40316, conf, Grayson Mill Operating, Hovland 26-35 9H,
  • 40315, conf, Grayson Mill Operating, Hovland 26-35 8H,
  • 40292, conf, Grayson Mill Operating, Hovland 26-35 7H,

Saturday, November 9, 2024: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 584 for the year

  • 40638, conf, CLR, Christoperson 6-14H,
Friday, November 8, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year
  • None.

RBN Energy: hydrogen's unique properties make using natural gas infrastructure a difficult task.

One of the biggest challenges to a significant expansion of the commercial hydrogen market in the U.S. is the lack of a comprehensive transportation network. That has spurred interest from utilities, government agencies and others interested in utilizing or repurposing parts of the existing (and extensive) natural gas infrastructure to ship hydrogen. But that approach comes with some challenges, starting with the significant differences in the physical and chemical properties of hydrogen and methane, the main component of natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain why moving hydrogen on the existing natural gas network — then storing and utilizing it — is no easy feat.