This is one of the best commentaries I have seen in quite some time on
the issue of energy, price of oil, environmental concerns, and the
economic situation in the United States.
Interestingly it comes out from a small regional newspaper in a non-energy state (Minnesota).
This is the link.
I did not know that cheap oil made Sweden rich; I knew that was true
for Norway, but not Sweden. That alone made me read the entire article.
(Unfortunately, this is a regional newspaper, and the link will be
broken in a few days; available only through subscription or charge.)
Unfortunately, I assume for most of the readers of this blog, this will be the preacher talking to the choir.
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Yes, the link is now broken; actually not quite true; the link will take
you to the original site but it will cost you to access the story.
The Swedish author noted that in 1945, none of the four small farms in
his small Swedish village used oil for anything. But between 1945 and
1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly
seven (7) percent per year for 25 years. "That journey into the oil age
transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest
country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase
came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich."
The author then asks reader to consider China which has 21 percent of
the world's global population. It consumes eight (8) percent of the
global oil supply, and "thinks it is fair to claim 21 percent, or 18
million barrels per day." That was written back in 2006.
China consumed 8 million barrels/day in 2008 and international energy
analysts expect China's consumption to more than double to 17 million
barrels/day by 2030. It's hard to believe it will take that long.
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Truly Blessed
From social media:
I keep saying to everyone how people that are 50, 60, 70 years old had
the best music.... and the best cars of all time. We truly were blessed.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
While the Asian giant has agreed to purchase more goods and services
from America, Washington has pledged to cut some tariff on Chinese
imports. Notably, the U.S. energy sector is poised to gain heavily from
this agreement as an export revival is expected. Of the additional
$200-billion purchase of U.S. goods over the next two years (keeping
2017 imports as the base level), $52.4 billion will likely come from the
energy sector. Per the deal, China will purchase $18.5 billion worth of
energy products this year, followed by $33.9 billion imports in 2021.
The energy sector stands second only to the manufacturing sector, which
will likely witness $77.7 billion of exports.
Among
the energy products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil,
natural gas, petroleum products, LNG is expected to gain the most from
the deal. Following the U.S. shale revolution, abundance of natural gas
in the domestic market and growing demand for cleaner energy sources
globally have led to the development of several LNG terminal projects in
the past few years. As such, the Washington-Beijing deal can open up a
huge market for the U.S. LNG industry.
While
China is set to become the biggest LNG importer by the end of the
decade, the United States is likely to be the largest exporter by 2025,
ahead of Qatar and Australia. This makes the two countries a perfect fit
even though the whole vision is largely dependent on the fate of the
existing 25% Chinese LNG tariff. This was levied during the trade war
and its future is still uncertain.
The existing LNG export facilities like Cheniere Energy, Inc.’s LNG
Corpus Christi, TX terminal are poised to gain from the renewed opening
to the China market. Jack Fusco, chief executive officer of Cheniere was
present at the trade deal signing ceremony. He said, “The phase one
agreement between the United States and China is a step in the right
direction that will hopefully restore the burgeoning U.S. LNG trade with
China,”. Other companies like ConocoPhillips COP with Freeport LNG,
Sempra Energy SRE with Cameron LNG will likely grab a share of this
market. Tellurian Inc. TELL, a newcomer in the LNG game, is also
expected to thrive from the recent developments.
Cheniere Energy this week reaped the benefits of the Phase 1 trade
deal between the United States and China, with its shares rising
considerably on news that China may buy more than $50 billion worth of additional U.S. energy products, including LNG.
A day earlier, S&P Global Platts reported
that natural gas flows into liquefaction trains across the six
operating LNG facilities in the United States had shot up to 8.5 billion
cu ft in December. This was a record-high amount and represented almost
a tenth of the total natural gas production in the country.
New
LNG capacity additions were strong last year, providing a much-needed
export venue from growing U.S. gas production that pushed prices to
historic lows, including several occasions on which they traded below
zero. This year, S&P Global Platts analysts expect the addition of
new capacity to continue but at a slower pace as competition intensified internationally.
Cheniere
Energy is by far the largest U.S. producer and exporter of liquefied
natural gas and its Sabine Pass plant is the oldest and largest one,
with five liquefaction trains in operation and a sixth one under
construction. Cheniere also operates a smaller plant in Corpus Christi
in Texas. This one has two liquefaction trains in operation and a third
one under construction.
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Released 1964; Mega-Hit, 1965
Dell Shannon
I Go To Pieces, Peter and Gordon
Released late 1964; mega-hit 1965.
Eighth grade for me. Central Junior High School, one block off Main Street, Williston, ND. The Hut hamburger joint. Music and pinball machines were a huge part of my life but pretty much only at the Hut. Biggest musical memory from the Hut? "Oh, Pretty Woman," Roy Orbison, released August, 1964, or thereabouts.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook
(STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) forecasts year-over-year decreases in
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2021. After
decreasing by 2.1% in 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions will decrease
by 2.0% in 2020 and again by 1.5% in 2021 for a third consecutive year
of declines.
These declines come after an increase in 2018 when weather-related
factors caused energy-related CO2 emissions to rise 2.9%. If this
forecast holds, energy-related CO2 emissions will have declined in 7 of
the 10 years from 2012 to 2021.
With the forecast declines, the 2021
level of fewer than 5 billion metric tons would be the first time
emissions have been at that level since 1991.
After a slight decline in 2019, EIA expects petroleum-related CO2
emissions to be flat in 2020 and decline slightly in 2021. The
transportation sector uses more than two-thirds of total U.S. petroleum
consumption. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) grows nearly 1% annually
during the forecast period. In the short term, increases in VMT are
largely offset by increases in vehicle efficiency.
Winter temperatures in New England, which were colder than normal in
2019, led to increased petroleum consumption for heating. New England
uses more petroleum as a heating fuel than other parts of the United
States. EIA expects winter temperatures will revert to normal,
contributing to a flattening in overall petroleum demand.
Natural gas-related CO2 increased by 4.2% in 2019, and EIA expects
that it will rise 1.4% in 2020. However, EIA expects a 1.7% decline in
natural gas-related CO2 in 2021 because of warmer winter weather and
less demand for natural gas for heating.
On the way to something else, I stumbled across this:
It explains why Senator Collins was forced to clarify her views on the impending impeachment trial in the US Senate and it's pretty clear to me how she will end up voting in that trial.
There is a new national poll out today, SUSA, 1/14 - 1/16, link here:
Biden polls above 30% in any poll for first time in a long time, at 32%
Sanders: 21%; right where he's been all along
Pocahontas: at 14%, at the low end of her polling
Buttigieg: 9%
Bloomberg: 9%
Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind: 2%; I just don't get it; later today there will be any number of articles suggesting how Klobuchar continues to surge; once she goes behind the cloistered impeachment US Senate walls, her 15 minutes of fame will be over;
Also , it appears, link here, there is a new New Hampshire poll, Emerson, 1/13 - 1/16:
Sanders: a commanding lead at 23%; about where he has been all along
Buttigieg: 18% -- which is probably pretty accurate, and if so, quite a surge
Biden: 14%
Pocahontas: 14%
Klobuchar: 10% -- wow, maybe I am wrong -- maybe Klobuchar will peak at just the right moment;
SUSA also has a new California poll, link here, 1/14 - 1/16 (remember, the last Democrat debate was 1/14):
Natural gas hasn't been seasonally this cheap in nearly 20 years; middle of winter, and natural gas is struggling to stay above $2/mBtu
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
North Dakota airport traffic continues to increase
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
Iowa wants more in from DAPL regarding its proposed expansion
ND PSC looking for additional information from DAPL regarding its proposed expansion
Tioga study shows its air has plenty of room for a petrochemical plant
the largest reported sale of the year for the multifamily market closed on New Year’s Eve and included properties from Williston, Tioga and Stanley, indicating continued strong demand in the oil patch. Link here.
Watford City, McKenzie County, taxable sales growth among state's highest; link here.
Dickinson Press to become weekly; will be published by The Bismarck Tribune;
Williston, area school districts in disarray.
Bellingham, WA, natural gas ban to cost consumers big money. Link here. This is no longer simply bad science; it's now bad crony capitalism. Someone is making a lot of money.
The Agriculture Department says producers with five or more colonies
totaled 38.2 million pounds of honey in 2018, up 13% from the previous
year. That led the nation for the 15th consecutive year.
The number of honey-producing colonies in North Dakota was up 16% to
530,000. Average yield was down 2 pounds, to 72 pounds per colony. [Nationally: 55.3 pounds/colony.]
Nationally, honey production was up 2%, to 152 million pounds. Montana
produced the second-most honey, followed by California, South Dakota and
Florida.
From KFRYTV, July 15, 2019: North Dakota avoiding national (and global) trend of record bee colongy losses.
They're aiming for 100 pounds per hive.
From KFYRTV, August 8, 2019: North Dakota honey harvest underway; expected to lead the nation in production.
