Saturday, January 18, 2020

Re-Posting -- Sweden -- January 18, 2020

Re-posting from January 29, 2011.
This is one of the best commentaries I have seen in quite some time on the issue of energy, price of oil, environmental concerns, and the economic situation in the United States.

Interestingly it comes out from a small regional newspaper in a non-energy state (Minnesota).

This is the link. I did not know that cheap oil made Sweden rich; I knew that was true for Norway, but not Sweden. That alone made me read the entire article. (Unfortunately, this is a regional newspaper, and the link will be broken in a few days; available only through subscription or charge.)

Unfortunately, I assume for most of the readers of this blog, this will be the preacher talking to the choir.


Yes, the link is now broken; actually not quite true; the link will take you to the original site but it will cost you to access the story.

The abstract is listed here.

The Swedish author noted that in 1945, none of the four small farms in his small Swedish village used oil for anything. But between 1945 and 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly seven (7) percent per year for 25 years. "That journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich."

The author then asks reader to consider China which has 21 percent of the world's global population. It consumes eight (8) percent of the global oil supply, and "thinks it is fair to claim 21 percent, or 18 million barrels per day." That was written back in 2006.

China consumed 8 million barrels/day in 2008 and international energy analysts expect China's consumption to more than double to 17 million barrels/day by 2030. It's hard to believe it will take that long.
Truly Blessed

From social media:
I keep saying to everyone how people that are 50, 60, 70 years old had the best music.... and the best cars of all time. We truly were blessed.
Noted at this music video:

Connecting A Couple Of Dots After The Trade Deal -- January 18, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Zacks here, January 17, 2020:
While the Asian giant has agreed to purchase more goods and services from America, Washington has pledged to cut some tariff on Chinese imports. Notably, the U.S. energy sector is poised to gain heavily from this agreement as an export revival is expected. Of the additional $200-billion purchase of U.S. goods over the next two years (keeping 2017 imports as the base level), $52.4 billion will likely come from the energy sector. Per the deal, China will purchase $18.5 billion worth of energy products this year, followed by $33.9 billion imports in 2021. The energy sector stands second only to the manufacturing sector, which will likely witness $77.7 billion of exports.
Among the energy products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, LNG is expected to gain the most from the deal. Following the U.S. shale revolution, abundance of natural gas in the domestic market and growing demand for cleaner energy sources globally have led to the development of several LNG terminal projects in the past few years. As such, the Washington-Beijing deal can open up a huge market for the U.S. LNG industry.
While China is set to become the biggest LNG importer by the end of the decade, the United States is likely to be the largest exporter by 2025, ahead of Qatar and Australia. This makes the two countries a perfect fit even though the whole vision is largely dependent on the fate of the existing 25% Chinese LNG tariff. This was levied during the trade war and its future is still uncertain.
The existing LNG export facilities like Cheniere Energy, Inc.’s LNG Corpus Christi, TX terminal are poised to gain from the renewed opening to the China market. Jack Fusco, chief executive officer of Cheniere was present at the trade deal signing ceremony. He said, “The phase one agreement between the United States and China is a step in the right direction that will hopefully restore the burgeoning U.S. LNG trade with China,”. Other companies like ConocoPhillips COP with Freeport LNG, Sempra Energy SRE with Cameron LNG will likely grab a share of this market. Tellurian Inc. TELL, a newcomer in the LNG game, is also expected to thrive from the recent developments.
Cheniere Energy this week reaped the benefits of the Phase 1 trade deal between the United States and China, with its shares rising considerably on news that China may buy more than $50 billion worth of additional U.S. energy products, including LNG.
A day earlier, S&P Global Platts reported that natural gas flows into liquefaction trains across the six operating LNG facilities in the United States had shot up to 8.5 billion cu ft in December. This was a record-high amount and represented almost a tenth of the total natural gas production in the country.
New LNG capacity additions were strong last year, providing a much-needed export venue from growing U.S. gas production that pushed prices to historic lows, including several occasions on which they traded below zero. This year, S&P Global Platts analysts expect the addition of new capacity to continue but at a slower pace as competition intensified internationally.
Cheniere Energy is by far the largest U.S. producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas and its Sabine Pass plant is the oldest and largest one, with five liquefaction trains in operation and a sixth one under construction. Cheniere also operates a smaller plant in Corpus Christi in Texas. This one has two liquefaction trains in operation and a third one under construction.
Released 1964; Mega-Hit, 1965
Dell Shannon

I Go To Pieces, Peter and Gordon

Released late 1964; mega-hit 1965.

Eighth grade for me. Central Junior High School, one block off Main Street, Williston, ND. The Hut hamburger joint. Music and pinball machines were a huge part of my life but pretty much only at the Hut. Biggest musical memory from the Hut? "Oh, Pretty Woman," Roy Orbison, released August, 1964, or thereabouts.

FWIW: US Energy-Related CO2 Emissions To Fall; Fossil Fuel Production To Increase -- EIA -- January 18, 2020

Link here.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts year-over-year decreases in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2021. After decreasing by 2.1% in 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions will decrease by 2.0% in 2020 and again by 1.5% in 2021 for a third consecutive year of declines.
These declines come after an increase in 2018 when weather-related factors caused energy-related CO2 emissions to rise 2.9%. If this forecast holds, energy-related CO2 emissions will have declined in 7 of the 10 years from 2012 to 2021.
With the forecast declines, the 2021 level of fewer than 5 billion metric tons would be the first time emissions have been at that level since 1991.
After a slight decline in 2019, EIA expects petroleum-related CO2 emissions to be flat in 2020 and decline slightly in 2021. The transportation sector uses more than two-thirds of total U.S. petroleum consumption. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) grows nearly 1% annually during the forecast period. In the short term, increases in VMT are largely offset by increases in vehicle efficiency.
Winter temperatures in New England, which were colder than normal in 2019, led to increased petroleum consumption for heating. New England uses more petroleum as a heating fuel than other parts of the United States. EIA expects winter temperatures will revert to normal, contributing to a flattening in overall petroleum demand.
Natural gas-related CO2 increased by 4.2% in 2019, and EIA expects that it will rise 1.4% in 2020. However, EIA expects a 1.7% decline in natural gas-related CO2 in 2021 because of warmer winter weather and less demand for natural gas for heating.

Notes From All Over, Politics ,Part 1 -- January 18, 2020

On the way to something else, I stumbled across this:

It explains why Senator Collins was forced to clarify her views on the impending impeachment trial in the US Senate and it's pretty clear to me how she will end up voting in that trial.

There is a new national poll out today, SUSA, 1/14 - 1/16, link here:
  • Biden polls above 30% in any poll for first time in a long time, at 32%
  • Sanders: 21%; right where he's been all along
  • Pocahontas: at 14%, at the low end of her polling
  • Buttigieg: 9%
  • Bloomberg: 9%
  • Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind: 2%; I just don't get it; later today there will be any number of articles suggesting how Klobuchar continues to surge; once she goes behind the cloistered impeachment US Senate walls, her 15 minutes of fame will be over;
Also , it appears, link here, there is a new New Hampshire poll, Emerson, 1/13 - 1/16:
  • Sanders: a commanding lead at 23%; about where he has been all along
  • Buttigieg: 18% -- which is probably pretty accurate, and if so, quite a surge
  • Biden: 14%
  • Pocahontas: 14%
  • Klobuchar: 10% -- wow, maybe I am wrong -- maybe Klobuchar will peak at just the right moment;
SUSA also has a new California poll, link here, 1/14 - 1/16 (remember, the last Democrat debate was 1/14):
  • Klouchar, a legend in her own mind: 2%
  • Steyer: 4%
  • Bloomberg: 6%
  • Buttigieg: 8%
  • Pocahontas: 20%
  • Sanders: 20%
  • Biden: 30%
Weights and Measurements

The other day I posted a note defining an acre as a "chain times a furlong."  A reader replied with this:
  • ratio of an igloo's circumference to its diameter: Eskimo Pi
  • 2000 pounds of Chinese soup: Won ton
  • 1 millionth of a mouthwash: 1 microscope
  • time it takes to sail 220 yards at 1 nautical mile per hour: 1 Knot-furlong
  • 365.25 days of drinking low-calorie beer because it's less filling: 1 lite year
  • 16.5 feet in the Twilight Zone: 1 Rod Serling
  • half of a large intestine: 1 semicolon
  • 1000 aches: 1 megahurtz
  • basic unit of laryngitis: 1 hoarsepower
  • 2000 mockingbirds: two kilomockingbirds
  • 10 cards: 1 decacards
  • 1 kilogram of falling figs: 1 Fig Newton
  • 1000 grams of wet socks: 1 literhosen
  • 1 trillion pins: 1 terrapin
  • 10 rations: 1 decoration
  • 8 nickels: 2 paradigms
  • 2.4 statute miles of intravenous surgical tubing at Yale University Hospital: 1 I.V. League

Week 3: January 12, 2020 -- January 18, 2020

Top story of the week: US economy -- housing starts and two huge trade bills. 

Top international non-energy story:
  • President Trump signs two landmark trade deals that could mean $1.2 trillion in more trade; China; USMCA;
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
  • North Dakota airport traffic continues to increase
Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:
  • Iowa wants more in from DAPL regarding its proposed expansion
  • ND PSC looking for additional information from DAPL regarding its proposed expansion
  • Tioga study shows its air has plenty of room for a petrochemical plant
  • the largest reported sale of the year for the multifamily market closed on New Year’s Eve and included properties from Williston, Tioga and Stanley, indicating continued strong demand in the oil patch. Link here.
  • North Dakota leads all states in tax collection since Great Recession. Link here
  • Watford City, McKenzie County, taxable sales growth among state's highest; link here.
  • Dickinson Press to become weekly; will be published by The Bismarck Tribune;
  • Williston, area school districts in disarray.
  • Bellingham, WA, natural gas ban to cost consumers big money. Link here. This is no longer simply bad science; it's now bad crony capitalism. Someone is making a lot of money.
Director's Cut, November, 2019, data: link here;
  • Barely missed another all-time high for crude oil production
  • New all-time high based on "boepd" production
  • North Dakota bucks the national trend: DUCs increase
Three Forks, second bench experience:
Bakken 101:

Honey Update; Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 18, 2020

From Billings Gazette, May 17, 2019: North Dakota leads nation in honey production for 15th year.
The Agriculture Department says producers with five or more colonies totaled 38.2 million pounds of honey in 2018, up 13% from the previous year. That led the nation for the 15th consecutive year.
The number of honey-producing colonies in North Dakota was up 16% to 530,000. Average yield was down 2 pounds, to 72 pounds per colony. [Nationally: 55.3 pounds/colony.]
Nationally, honey production was up 2%, to 152 million pounds. Montana produced the second-most honey, followed by California, South Dakota and Florida.
From KFRYTV, July 15, 2019: North Dakota avoiding national (and global) trend of record bee colongy losses.
They're aiming for 100 pounds per hive.
From KFYRTV, August 8, 2019: North Dakota honey harvest underway; expected to lead the nation in production.

From agweb, April 18, 2017: the top ten honey-producing states in America.