FWIW: US Energy-Related CO2 Emissions To Fall; Fossil Fuel Production To Increase -- EIA -- January 18, 2020
Link here.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook
(STEO), released on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA) forecasts year-over-year decreases in
energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2021. After
decreasing by 2.1% in 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions will decrease
by 2.0% in 2020 and again by 1.5% in 2021 for a third consecutive year
of declines.
These declines come after an increase in 2018 when weather-related
factors caused energy-related CO2 emissions to rise 2.9%. If this
forecast holds, energy-related CO2 emissions will have declined in 7 of
the 10 years from 2012 to 2021.
With the forecast declines, the 2021
level of fewer than 5 billion metric tons would be the first time
emissions have been at that level since 1991.
After a slight decline in 2019, EIA expects petroleum-related CO2
emissions to be flat in 2020 and decline slightly in 2021. The
transportation sector uses more than two-thirds of total U.S. petroleum
consumption. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) grows nearly 1% annually
during the forecast period. In the short term, increases in VMT are
largely offset by increases in vehicle efficiency.
Winter temperatures in New England, which were colder than normal in
2019, led to increased petroleum consumption for heating. New England
uses more petroleum as a heating fuel than other parts of the United
States. EIA expects winter temperatures will revert to normal,
contributing to a flattening in overall petroleum demand.
Natural gas-related CO2 increased by 4.2% in 2019, and EIA expects
that it will rise 1.4% in 2020. However, EIA expects a 1.7% decline in
natural gas-related CO2 in 2021 because of warmer winter weather and
less demand for natural gas for heating.
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