Thursday, May 28, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Late Night Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- May 28, 2020

First things first, at Charlotte:
  • eight to go: Elliott ahead by a remarkable two seconds; we're starting to see the consistent NASCAR winners;
  • six to go: Elliott remains in the lead; separation: 2.25 seconds
  • four to go: everybody remembers the race just a week ago when a caution in the last few laps cost Elliott the race; separation: 2.29 seconds
  • two to go: this has been a very, very long run without a caution; cars are spread out; if there's a caution it will most likely be due to single car mishap; separation: 2.91 seconds
  • white flag: gap -- 2.7 seconds
  • checkered flag: Chase Elliott -- well-deserved; longest stretch without a caution that I've seen in a long, long time. Great race.
My next "toy": Everdure by Heston Blumenthal. A British celebrity chef. Grilling. LOL. Who would have ever guessed?

Wuhan virus: now being called a "racial pandemic" by US House members. Why not? I wonder which city needs to go up in flames to get back at the virus?

Wuhan virus: We have all had the opportunity to adjust. For me, just one such opportunity, and yes, she is really cutting my hair -- these are not staged photos -- they were taken quickly by her old sister who was on her way to soccer --

I'm hoping to see some additional shots taken later by Sophia's mother.

By the way, and I'm not making this up, when I arrived for my haircut, Sophia told me I was early and to please take a seat and she would be with me shortly (no pun intended).

Summer reading, for Sophia: see this link. We have a good fit leveled reader (Bob's Books) but I had not heard of the Dolce sight word set before. Just now: ordered at Amazon. Will be here in a couple of days. Again, with cash back, no charge. What a great country.

Finally: TCM -- watching a delightful movie, Edward G Robinson directed by Fritz Lang. I won't be able to stay up late enough to finish it but it will show up again in rotation. Scarlet Street.

Lime Rock Resources With One New Permit -- May 28, 2020

OPEC Basket: $29.03. Down 2.4%. Saudi hell. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1164655029

One new permit, #37602 --
  • Operator: Lime Rock Resources
  • Field: Fayette (Dunn)
  • Comments: 
    • Lime Rock Resources has a permit for an Emerson well in SESE 13-143-96, Fayette oil field
    • in the early days of the Bakken, OXY was active in the Fayette; initially Fayette looked very, very good but over time, not as great as it originally looked; certainly its Tier 1 but not the best Tier 1; it will be interesting to see how Lime Rock Resources does here
    •  37602: sections 24/25-143-96 & sectons 19/30-143-95. Commission order #27512.
    • 255 FSL 1144 FEL
    • Fayette-Bakken: the interval from 200 feet above the top of the Bakken formation to above the top of the Birdbear formation;
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35603, SI/A, XTO, Cole 44X-32DXA, Siverston, t--; cum --;
  • 26802, SI/A, XTO, Cole 44X-32G, Siverston, t--; cum --;
  • 33024, drl/A, BR, Renegade 24-10 TFH, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 33022, SI/A, BR, Chuckwagon 21-15 TFH, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36301, SI/A, BR, Renegade 34-15 TFH-R, Three Forks B2, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 33023, SI/A, BR, Renegade 24-10 MBH, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
Renegade 34-15 TFH-R

  • 2560-acre drilling: sections 3/10/15/22-153-97
  • estimated total depth: 21,742' MD
  • estimated TVD: 10,905' 
  • Three Forks B2;
  • upper Bakken shale top: 10,914'; highest gas reading through the seam - 3012 units
  • middle Bakken, dolomite, top: 10,946'; gas values averaged 1200 units; about 53' thick;
  • Three Forks, sandstone, top: 11,099'
  • one lateral, TD = 21,641'; gas levels averaged 171 units with a maximum of 10,000 units; the lateral tracked throughout the Three Forks for 100% of the lateral

Gasoline Demand -- May 28, 2020

Link here.

Enquiring Minds Want To Know -- May 28, 2020

Update: the original post below was never completed; I was interrupted by more important issues. However,  I have now completed that task; my comments are at this post regarding the linked story below.

Original Post

A reader asked me my thoughts on this article:

The thesis:
At a time when the U.S. shale industry was going through a phase of a debt-fueled drilling frenzy, the rest of the oil world entered into a “Lower Forever” mindset in the famous words of Royal Dutch Shell PLC’s chief executive Van Beurden and started to seriously trim spending.
CAPEX investments across the globe crashed 66 percent between 2014 and 2016 to $322 billion and have never fully recovered.
Global E&P Capex spending in 2019 clocked in at an estimated $546bn, well below the $880bn recorded in 2014 during the last oil price boom. The latest spending cuts have set back the clock a good 13 years. Obviously, it’s just a matter of time before global production starts to suffer. Roughly 60 percent of the world’s oil comes from just 25 oil fields mainly in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East with an average age of over 70 years and already experiencing 6-7 percent annual declines. Further, the role of Saudi Arabia as a swing producer tends to be overstated, with its often-cited spare production capacity of 2.5mb/d closer to 0.5mb/d.
First line that caught my attention:
CAPEX investments across the globe crashed 66 percent between 2014 and 2016 to $322 billion and have never fully recovered.  
As usual, analysts use that data point all the time and never remind readers why CAPEX investments crashed 66 percent between 2014 and 2016.

I'll come back to this later.

But for now, we're going elsewhere:

I've been "caveman grilling" for the past six months or so, and these are my comments, observations:

1. Reiterate: no briquets. Natural lump charcoal, or hardwood lump charcoal, or some variation. No briquets. Lump charcoal with absolutely no additives.

2. Specialty BBQ stores: the lump charcoal is fairly expensive. Costco, Walmart, Home Depot, and others have much less expensive and apparently just as good. For example: Western hardwood lump charcoal or Cowboy charcoal vs FOGO. I've only used FOGO so far, but it will be interesting to try Western or Cowboy. See video linked below: which lump hardwood charcoal is the best?

3. From the video: that was the first time I've ever seen an Everdur Charcoal Grill. I love it. Whether I want to spend that much money ($199) when my Weber works just as well is something I will have to consider.

4. From the video: with good cuts of steak, there is absolutely no need for all those high-priced rubs. Salt and pepper is all you need. As long as I'm grilling directly on coal, I won't use anything more than salt and pepper.

5. Salt: kosher, flake, or sea salt. If I can find it, Australian sea salt.

6. From the video: that was a new wrinkle, not using pepper until after the steak has been grilled. Hmmmm.... I'm not sure. This seems all extra work. I put salt and pepper on the steak before grilling. Other chefs have said the same thing.

7. From the video: a small amount of avocado oil. In other videos I was told never to use vegetable oil when grilling directly on coals. I was told the oil directly on the coal would cause a syrupy mess. I will have to check that out.

8. From the video: I've grilled much thinner cuts and everything comes out find, but a 3/4-inch steak probably takes 1:30 on one side; 2:00 minutes on the other. The video suggested 3 to 4 minutes per side for a 1.5-inch steak. For the novice, the biggest risk is leaving the steak too long on the coal.

9. From the video: wow, the cook is doing exactly what I don't recommend. The reason I love caveman grilling is its simplicity. Once the steak is on the coal, leave it alone, except once when one flips it to the other side. All that other touching / moving with the tongs is just too much busy work. One is not making love to the steak, one is grilling it. Put it on the coals and let the heat to all the work.

10. From the video: the cook did not say how long to let the steak rest. Wrap it in aluminum foil and let it rest (continue to cook) for fifteen minutes.

11. From the video: I was thrilled to see a chimney used to start the coals.

12. From the video: preparing the coal "floor" before placing the stake on the grill is something I had not properly done. I will fix that next time I grill. Maybe. Again, a lot of busy work. I like caveman grilling for its simplicity: chimney; salt and pepper the steak; pour the charcoal onto the grill; lay the steak on the charcoal; turn once; aluminum foil for fifteen minutes. Done. 

12. From the video: the crust looked great. I've not duplicated that yet as well as I would like.

Which lump hardwood charcoal burns the best? Doesn't test FOGO. The video compares the "consistency" of the batches in each bag. That's been an eye-opener when it comes to FOGO. FOGO has a fair amount of "gravel" (or very small pieces of lump charcoal) at the bottom, but huge, and I mean huge, logs at the other end that barely fit in the chimney. In the video, B&B was the surprise winner by far based on length of burn; Cowboy came in second but the "consistency was crap," making a third of the bag unusable. Some of the chunks in Cowboy were said to be too large to put in a chimney. From this video, another observation: the chimney holds about one pound of lump charcoal when filled to the top.

SUV Sales Exceed 40% Of Global Car Sales -- First Time -- May 28, 2020

In the early 1990s I attended Air War College, the senior service school of the USAF. I remember one lecture in particular. A retired multi-star general officer opined that within 20 years there would no longer be any internal combustion engines. Twenty years from that lecture was 2014 -- and, you know -- in the big scheme of things he was more right than wrong. Well, that's not quite right. He became part of the mainstream thinking that ICE were on the endangered species list. But it looks like they were all wrong.

See the KPMG paper linked yesterday, and then, now this:

Sure, SUVs could be EVs but they aren't (for the most part).

Wow, I had to look at that again -- 40%. That is not trivial, by any stretch of the imagination. At the link, the IEA report is very, very long; use "SUV" search to find the note.

Other links:
From wiki:
The CAFE achieved by a given fleet of vehicles in a given model year is the production-weighted harmonic mean fuel economy, expressed in miles per US gallon, of a manufacturer's fleet of current model year passenger cars or light trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 pounds (3,856 kg) or less (but also including medium-duty passenger vehicles, such as large sport-utility vehicles and passenger vans, with GVWR up to 10,000 pounds), produced for sale in the United States.
The CAFE standards in a given model year define the CAFE levels that manufacturers' fleets are required to meet in that model year, specific levels depending on the characteristics and mix of vehicles produced by each manufacturer. If the average fuel economy of a manufacturer's annual fleet of vehicle production falls below the applicable requirement, the manufacturer must either apply sufficient CAFE credits to cover the shortfall or pay a penalty, currently $5.50 per 0.1 mpg under the standard, multiplied by the manufacturer's total production for the U.S. domestic market.
Congress established both of these provisions explicitly in EPCA, as amended in 2007 by EISA. In addition, a Gas Guzzler Tax is levied on individual passenger car models (but not trucks, vans, minivans, or SUVs) that get less than 22.5 miles per US gallon (10.5 l/100 km).

I'm Thinking Of Taking The Day Off -- If So, I Will Update The Bakken Later This Afternoon -- Early Evening -- May 28, 2020

EIA, weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil inventories increased by a whopping 7.9 million bbls; consistent with yesterday's API data;
  • US crude oil inventories now stand at 534.4 million bbls, about 13% above the already-fat five-year average for this time of the year
  • and, look at this: imported surged -- up 2.0 million bbls per day from the previous week -- that's the equivalent of one VLCC unloading every day on the west coast
  • even so, imports averaged about 16.5% less than the same four-week period last year, but that's going to change if the current trend continues; currently, imports are averaging about 6 million bpd;
  • US refiners are operating at 71.3% capacity -- a bit higher than last week
  • jet fuel supplied remains down about 70% compared with same four-week period last year
Thank goodness for the transparency of the internet. Despite all the political posturing, hand-wringing, and bragging about America's energy independence, with a glut of US oil, not only did US oil imports increase, they surged, and went from "negative" to extremely positive.

Despite all this, WTI and Brent slumped slightly, about 2/3rds of a percent; OPEC basket slumped 2.4%, suggesting that traders know that Saudi still has a boatload (pun intended) of VLCCs and ULCCs offshore China and the US.

Most troubling -- crude oil imports -- daily, huge swing in delta, and four week percentage change:
Crude Oil Imports

Week (week-over-week)
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029

Week 1
March 18, 2020

Week 2
March 25, 2020

Week 3
April 1, 2020

Week 4
April 8, 2020

Week 5
April 15, 2020

Week 6
April 22, 2020

Week 7
April 29, 2020
Week 8
May 6, 2020

Week 9
May 13, 2020
Week 10
May 20, 2020

Week 11
May 28, 2020

And then look where the imports are coming from, and with one exception increased across the board (Brazil was the exception). If I did the math correctly:
  • Saudi Arabian oil imports: increased by almost 250%
  • Iraqi oil imports: increased by almost 220%
  • Mexican oil imports: increased by 23%
  • Canada oil imports: increased by 11%

If the numbers aren't enough to get your attention, maybe the graph will. Saudi crude oil imports (into the US):

Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 71
April 8, 2020
Week 72
April 15, 2020
Week 72
April 22, 2020
Week 73
April 29, 2020
Week 74
May 6, 2020
Week 75
May 13, 2020
Week 76
May 20, 2020
Week 77
May 28, 2020

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week

Week Ending
Week 0
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
May 22, 2020

US Weekly Crude Oil Supply In Days

Link here: dropped slightly, from 42.0 days to 41.3 days. I love the false precision. It's fairly easy to measure the amount of crude oil in storage -- at least, the source of the data should be relatively consistent. However, demand is, at best, an educated guess.

A Vern Whitten Photography Coffee-Table Book -- May 28, 2020

I may post this a couple of times so it doesn't get lost in all other news. In addition, I will add a link at the sidebar at the right.

This is really, really cool.

Vern Whitten Photography is publishing a "coffee-table book" book. Virtually.

The first two pages have already been posted here and elsewhere.

The best news: the photos and text will be maintained at the Vern Whitten Photography website and you can order prints.

It is interesting: as much as I enjoy storing my photos on-line and posting them on the blog, I love hard-copy enlargements. I place enlargements in documents protectors and then into a binder as a journal of sorts. They end up being "coffee-table" binders and visitors (including Sophia) love poring through them. Somehow, the tactile experience and getting away from the mobile device is very, very inviting.

In addition, the best of the best, and those that stir memories and emotions, are framed and hung. My experience visiting the great art museums in Paris (many, many times when stationed overseas) resulted in my love to hang art and photos in the house. I don't care for empty walls. 

As I get new photos from Mr Whitten, they will be posted on the blog and a reminder of the link at the side bar at the right.

Again, here was the first photo which most reminds me of my brother who we lost several years ago.  In fact, if one puts the first two photos Vern sent me, they tell a complete story about my brother. I may post that later.

First, the Vern Whittin Photography site and the coffee-table book.


Economic Numbers -- May 28, 2020

GDP, link here:
  • 1Q20
  • prior: -4.8%
  • forecast: -4.8%
  • actual: -5.0%
  • real consumer spending: -6.8%
  • price index, q/q: 1.4%
Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 2.438 million
  • revised: 2.446 million
  • consensus: 2.1 million
  • actual: 2.123 million
Off the net for awhile -- Uber-granddaughter driving.

  • Dow futures: up 163 points
  • S&P futures: up 3.25 points
  • NASDAQ futures: down 95 points
Business headlines:
  • the Hertz story keeps getting worse 
  • AAPL: down a bit in pre-market trading
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Love him or hate him, he does cut through the fog:

Another Sophia Story
I don't know if you know that you can subscribe to "channels" on YouTube. I never subscribe, of course.

Tonight, when we were driving from our apartment to her house, Sophia nonchalantly asked me what "Subscribe" means on YouTube.

Either she sounded out that word herself or someone read it to her somewhere. I certainly did not read "Subscribe" to her on videos on YouTube. I never even thought to mention them to her.

It was difficult for me to describe but I asked her what she does when she sees the "Subscribe" button.

She says she just clicks on it and moves on. LOL.

I wonder how many YouTube "channels" I'm subscribed to. LOL.