Thursday, May 25, 2017

I Had No Idea -- May 25, 2017

From The Bismarck Tribune:
Hunters in North Dakota bagged more than 36,000 birds during 2016 early Canada goose hunting for the sixth consecutive year.
The state Game and Fish Department says the number represents the combined harvest from the August management take and the September early regular goose season.
Migratory game bird specialist Mike Szymanski (shuh-MAN'-skee) says it's another step in the department's effort to reduce the state's resident Canada goose population.
And, then, of course, there's the regular hunting season. Wow. 36,000 Canadian geese in just a couple of months.  And that's just the "early season."

If one is really interested in annual geese "harvesting" by state, there's a website for that. It appears that between 150,000 and 300,000 geese are "harvested" annually in Minnesota, for example. In North Dakota, it appears the "harvest" peaked in 1996 with 300,000 Canadian geese taken, but generally it's about 150,000 -- very similar to Minnesota.

The Texas Economy Page

Four of the five fastest growing cities in the US are in Texas. And most of those are around the DFW airport.

"Basic Income To Meet My Needs" To Be Free To "Go After My Passion" -- May 25, 2017

Some of America's elite are now advocating "a basic income for everyone," specifically, ""everyone should have enough money to meet their basic needs—no matter what, especially if there are enough resources to make it possible."

I don't think that will happen in my lifetime but just in case it does, I want to post my basic needs now in case there's an application process for this "basic income" or a chance to be "grandfathered" into this remarkable solution to all our problems.

My "basic income" would need to be enough:
  • to buy, maintain, and pay property taxes on a 5,000-square-foot McMansion in west Hollywood or the Beverly Hills, with a 4-car garage (see below)
  • to buy, maintain, and pay property taxes on a 3,500-square-foot summer home in the Rocky Mountains, near a ski resort
  • to maintain a "Ruth's Steak House" lifestyle diet
  • to buy, maintain, and pay annual registration fees for three Italian sports cars and one Tesla
  • to pay for full undergraduate education at Harvard with 7 years of post-graduate education at Princeton and/or Yale (to include one of the dining programs)
  • to make annual payments for a yacht slip off Rhode Island
  • to buy, maintain, and pay annual registration fees for a small yacht 
  • to buy, maintain, and pay for small Lear jet (I would consider sharing with friends, but since they would also all have a basic income, this would not be necessary)
  • to pay for a medical - dental insurance policy meeting or exceeding those that cover US senators
  • to include an unspecified amount to cover any incidental expenses not identified in the items listed above
An example of the 3,500-square-foot is in Sioux Falls, SD, as reported in today's WSJ: Is this a house or a playground?
This couple’s 13,000-square-foot home in Sioux Falls, S.D., features a stage with velvet curtains, a hidden room under the basement stairs, a backyard zip line and more—all added to inspire and enrich their children.
Champ, Eileen and Max just got home from school. Champ, 11, heads to the living room, removes his shoes and—swoosh—takes the metal slide to the basement.

On this lower level, their parents, Keith Baumgarten and Sara Keane Baumgarten, have built a vast playland for their four children, ages 4 to 11, in their 13,000-square-foot home in Sioux Falls, S.D.
Here, the children practice classical guitar, mixed with some piano and percussion, on a stage flanked by velvet curtains. In a hidden room beneath the stairs, decorated with Chinese lanterns and jade carpet, the children practice Mandarin once a day with a private tutor.
Later, they can play skeeball, the classic carnival game, or enjoy a snack from the basement’s kitchen.In an adjacent guesthouse, there is an elaborate, lofted playhouse with bunk beds for each of the children. Outside, there is a large swimming pool and a play set that includes a climbing wall, firehouse pole and zip line.

The Sioux Falls house is nothing like the couple’s former home. In 2006, Mrs. Baumgarten, a business-management consultant, and her husband, Dr. Baumgarten, an orthopedic specialist, were renting a 611-square-foot apartment on Manhattan’s Upper East Side. With their first child on the way, big-city living was wearing thin.
And "They" Say President Trump Makes Outrageous Statements

Prince Salman who is orchestrating a trillion-dollar IPO based entirely on Saudi Arabia's oil reserves has said that he does not care if the price of oil drops to zero. As in zero dollars.

I guess that's why he pressured his "colleagues" into extending crude oil production cuts for another nine months.  But apparently traders are listening to Prince Salman and trying to help him out. On the day he said this, the price of oil plunged 5% or more.

I can't make this stuff up. 

"Holy Nightmare, Batman, What Do We Do Now?" -- May 25, 2017

Saudi orchestrates a nine-month extension of OPEC's "highly successful" production cut. Result: WTI falls 5%. 

Sort of reminds me of "Baghdad Bob."


Active rigs:

Active Rigs502883191186

Three new permits:
  • Operators: HRC, Resonance Exploration, Petro-Hunt
  • Fields: Eagle Nest (Dunn), Westhope (Bottineau), Little Knife (Billings)
  • Comments:
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 31946, 1,232, EOG, Van Hook 44-3626XH, Parshall, t5/17; cum -- (17910)
And that was it; nothing else particularly noteworthy.

The Bubble Economy

Blame It On The Boss - A - Nova -- The Political Page, T+125 -- May 25, 2017

This problem has been going on for more than five years, according to CBS Sacramento which means the former president didn't do anything about it but now it's time to blame the new boss (or as they say out in  the fields, "boss-a-nova"). The "boss-a-nova" has been in office for less than six months and has pretty much been stymied by judges and Congress. In fact, as far as I can tell, President Trump doesn't have any new policies; simply enforcing the laws that are on the books.

From the linked article:
As harvesting season gets underway, many growers in need of workers fear they may lose their crops, and President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration orders appears to only make matters worse.
Goehring says it’s become more and more difficult to find people to do this work.
“It’s been a real struggle and it’s been increasing the last 5-6 years,” he said.
Goehring is among the growing number of agricultural businessmen in California who have tried a number of strategies to lure workers. From putting ads in the paper to offering benefits- such as health insurance and 401(k)s, Goehring has even increased pay on certain jobs up to $22 an hour.
Population In Windy City Blowing Away

Link at Chicago Tribune.
  • only major US city to report population decline in past year, from 2015 to 2016
  • city's third consecutive year of population loss
  • Illinois' population fell by more than any other state in 2016
  • Illinoisans in recent years have flocked to Sun Belt states, such as Texas, Arizona and Florida
  • will eventually overtake population of Houston -- but it may take awhile

Same Ol' Same Ol' -- May 25, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs492883191186

RBN Energy: US oil production extends its influence over global crude markets.

The NDIC map: for several days now, I've noted on two different browsers (Safari and Firefox) the NDIC map is "not quite right" as we used to say in Turkey. The horizontal lines are "displaced" slightly to the right of the location of where the wells are shown to be sited.

Mid-Day Trading

WTI: down almost 5%; again, below $50. Traders must have come to the same conclusion -- at the rate, 55 weeks before we get to historical crude oil inventories in the US. If US operators ramp up, it will be even longer.

1996. According to CNBC one has to go all the way back to 1996 to find this streak of new records being broken in the stock market. This appears to be a breakout --new 52-week highs -- the rally is broadening. Trump rally?

Uinta drilling partnership: from Oil & Gas Journal --
  • producer EP Energy (Houston) and refiner Tesoro (San Antonio) have formed a joint venture
  • 60-well oil and gas development program
  • EP Energy's Altamont program in the Uinta basin of Utah 
  • seems like a natural fit: EP to provide source of crude for Tesoro

The Political Page, T+125 -- May 25, 2017

From econoday, first time unemployment claims:
  • forecast consensus: 237K
  • previous: 232K 
  • forecast: an increase of 5,000
  • the number: moved up 1,000
  • slightly revised 233
  • today: 234K
  • so slightly better than forecast