Thursday, August 2, 2018

Quiz. Quick: Guess Which Operator. Guess Which Oil Field -- August 2, 2018

This post won't be updated. This well is being tracked at this link and that's where data will be updated.

But back on July 27, 2018 -- just a few days ago -- I put a "yellow sticky" on the computer to remind me to come back to check on this well in a few weeks.

Here's the production data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Quick! Guess the operator and the field -- LOL --
  • MRO
  • Bailey
The well:
  • 17498, 498, MRO, Chimney Butte 34-11, Bailey, API - 33-025-00804, re-fracked 3/24/18 - 4/2/18; 5.7 million gallons of water; 89.5% water, t11/08; cum 184K 5/18; this well has been off-line since 10/17, and remains off-line through 5/18; back on line, 6/18;

Hess Has Six New Permits -- August 2, 2018; MRO Reports DUC With "Record" IP

Active rigs:

Active Rigs63593474194

Six new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Blue Buttes
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 6-well BB-Olson pad in SESE 9-150-95 in Blue Buttes oil field;
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 32010, 7,448, MRO, Colvin USA 14-34TFH, Reunion Bay, fracked, 6/1/18 - 6/12/18; 6.9 million gallons water; 89% water, t7/18; cum --
  • 33911, 2,705, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-8, Blue Buttes, fracked 5/10/18 - 5/14/18; 5.5 million gallons water; 84.6% water, t7/18; cum --
  • 33912, 2,251, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-9, Blue Buttes, t7/18; cum --
  • 33913, 2,355, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-LW-150-95-0817H-1, Blue Buttes, t7/18; cum --
The Colvin graphic:

The wells:
  • 19065, IA/807, MRO, Weninger USA 44-34H, Reunion Bay, t9/10; off-line since 5/17; cum 363K 5/17;
  • 32850, SI/NC, Loftqist USA
  • 32851, SI/NC, Brant USA

  • 32015, SI/NC, MRO Hal USA
  • 32014, SI/NC, MRO, JackieUSA
  • 32013, SI/NC, MRO, Tony USA
  • 32012, SI/NC, MRO, Ranger USA
  • 32010, 7,448, MRO, Colvin USA 14-34TFH, Reunion Bay, fracked, 6/1/18 - 6/12/18; 6.9 million gallons water; 89% water, t7/18; cum --
  • 33562, SI/NC, MRO, Lois USA

EOG -- 2Q18 Earnings -- Press Release -- August 2, 2018

From the press release:
  • beats oil, natural gas and NGL production targets
    • EOG grew total crude oil production 15 percent year-over-year to 384,600 barrels of oil per day (bopd), setting a company record.  Total company production increased 16 percent in the second quarter 2018 compared to the same prior year period.  Growth in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford and Powder River Basin drove EOG's strong performance.  [The Bakken was not mentioned.] The company maintained its target for 18 percent crude oil growth for full year 2018.
  • maintains full-year exploration and development expenditure target
  • announces Powder River Basin Mowry and Niobrara Shale plays and expands Turner Sand inventory, adding 1,560 net premium drilling locations and 1.9 bnboe net resource potential
  • increases common stock dividend a second time in 2018; tear-to-date increase 31 percent
    • EOG's Board of Directors increased the cash dividend on the common stock by 19 percent. Effective with the dividend payable October 31, 2018, to holders of record as of October 17, 2018, the board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share on the common stock. The indicated annual rate is $0.88 per share.
  • EOG Resources, Inc. today reported second quarter 2018 net income of $696.7 million, or $1.20 per share. This compares to second quarter 2017 net income of $23.1 million, or $0.04 per share. [At $1.20, EOG missed estimates of $1.23.]
  • adjusted non-GAAP net income for the second quarter 2018 was $794.9 million, or $1.37 per share, compared to adjusted non-GAAP net income of $46.7 million, or $0.08 per share, for the same prior year period. 
Specific reference to the Williston Basin:
During the second quarter 2018, EOG resumed completion activity in the Williston Basin as part of its seasonal development program.
The company further lowered well costs by improving drilling and completion times and making other efficiency improvements.
In the North Dakota Williston Basin, EOG drilled nine wells and began production from two wells in the second quarter.
The Clarks Creek 108 and 155-0706H targeted the Three Forks formation in McKenzie County, ND and were completed with an average treated lateral length of 9,200 feet per well and average 30-day initial production rates per well of 2,980 boed, or 2,240 bopd, 345 bpd of NGLs and 2.4 MMcfd of natural gas.
Compare that Bakken IP data with that of the DJ Basin:
EOG began production from eight wells in the DJ Basin during the second quarter 2018. In particular, a four-well package of DJ Basin Codell wells in Laramie County, WY, the Windy 576 and 577-1702H and the Windy 591 and 593-1705H, was completed with an average treated lateral length of 9,300 feet per well and average 30-day initial production rates per well of 870 boed, or 755 bopd, 70 bpd of NGLs and 0.3 MMcfd of natural gas. All four of these wells are premium. They were drilled in an average of 4.4 days per well with an average cost of $3.4 million per well.
Share price: fairly flat today; not too far away from 52-week high.

Right Down The Line, Gerry Rafferty

Apple Market Cap Hits $1 Trillion -- August 2, 2018

The trillion-dollar screenshot ....

Wall Street Journal when Apple hits $1 trillion market cap.

From CNBC:
Apple hit a $1 trillion market cap on Thursday, making the iPhone maker the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach the record valuation.
The stock rose nearly 3 percent following a strong third-quarter earnings report earlier this week, briefly hitting a session high of $207.05 in midday trading before falling back below $207.
Based on a recently adjusted outstanding share count of 4,829,926,000 shares, a stock price of $207.05 nudged Apple over the finish line in the race to one trillion.
Investors had previously been looking for a share price of $203.45, but the company's hefty stock buybacks moved the threshold higher.
The Dems weigh in:
  • Barack Obama: Apple didn't make that. Trump's corporate tax windfall did that. 
  • Joe Biden: That's a f**king big deal.
  • Hillary: All my classified e-mails are locked up in an iPhone 4.
  • Maxine Waters: we need to impeach Tim Cook. And Trump.
  • Nancy Pelosi: $1 trillion? Just crumbs.
  • Chuck Schumer:  Apple has six ways to Sunday to get to $2 trillion.
  • Occasional Ortez: $1 trillion? That would pay for healthcare for all! Nationalize Apple! Now!
  • Pocahontas: And this is exactly what the big banks are going to do. Getting way too big. We need to stop Tim Cook now.
  • Jeff Bezos: But who ships all those iPhones?
    • To China? Wallace "Fred" Smith
  • Warren Buffett: My biggest mistake ... waiting too long to sell IBM before I bought AAPL. I didn't know what Apple sold ten years ago. I didn't understand the business model.
  • Elon Musk: Do we need to put an iPhone on Mars? I think so. 
Money for Nothing, Dire Straits

Graph Of The Year? -- August 2, 2018


August 2, 2018: in response to the graphic below, a reader sent me a note, asking: "There's so much more gas ready to be "tapped" there's no need to store as much ... just crack a few valves open a little more ... Am I missing something?

My reply:
I don't know. I know very, very little about natural gas. It's only through the blog that I even began following natural gas. But if you are correct, it means the weekly graph that the EIA publishes and that traders follow has been completely irrelevant all these years -- in other words, why even track the fill rate?

Or, with the Utica, Marcellus, et al, things have changed, your (implied?) thesis is completely correct, and going forward, they either need to quit following the weekly fill rate or explain to us why it's worth tracking.

I seriously don't know.
Original Post

A few days ago I thought I had posted "the graph of the year." Now another one. If you include the Tesla graphic yesterday, we now have three graphs that could get bragging rights as "graph of the year."

This is rather phenomenal to say the least. Don sent me the link -- I might have gotten to it eventually, but possibly not.

I'm pretty much avoiding business news today -- Dow futures were down 200 points and on days like this, I simply try to ignore the news. Lots of YouTube.

But I digress. Look at this graph. Amazing. Dynamic link here.

Working gas in storage has broken through the five-year minimum .... who wudda thought? Hottest days of summer yet to come. Then a cold winter. It could be hard to catch up by December.

How low will it go? For now, break through:

Breakthru, Queen

Inside Joke(s) -- But Lots Of Fun -- With A Bakken Connection -- Sort Of -- August 2, 2018 -- The "Upside Down "e"

This page is simply for the fun of it. If you are serious about the Bakken, I would skip this page. Normally I don't post this stuff, but:
  • today is a pretty slow news day after a hectic week earlier;
  • market futures were down (a lot) and I haven't checked the opening, and won't; but, more importantly,
  • this is really, really very clever; and I learned a lot in the process; and,
  • Arianna will love it;
First, quick, what's a "schwa"?

Let's go to wiki for an example:
In linguistics, specifically phonetics and phonology, schwa (/ʃwɑː/, rarely /ʃwɔː/ or /ʃvɑː/; sometimes spelled shwa) is the mid central vowel sound (rounded or unrounded) in the middle of the vowel chart, denoted by the IPA symbol ə, or another vowel sound close to that position. An example in English is the vowel sound of the 'a' in the word about. Schwa in English is mainly found in unstressed positions, but in some other languages it occurs more frequently as a stressed vowel.
Wow, that's a complicated paragraph. Easier, a schwa:
  • an upside down "e"
  • pronounced "schwa" 
  • used in dictionaries to help people learn how to pronounce a syllable
  • an unstressed syllable
At this point I have to give away a bit of the punch line because it's pretty obscure. But did you note that part about the "schwa" generally being unstressed in the English language?

So, first inside joke, from teepublic (make sure you have only one "p" in that URL:

Okay, that's pretty good so far but it gets better.

If an extraterrestrial alien were to study the English language on her own, how many ways might she think about how to pronounce "Sioux." Yup. "Schwa" would be one possibility. LOL. I assume "lewisandclark" -- lineage traced back to blue-stocking Brits -- would have called the Lakota, the "schwa." 

Now this, from a reader, and, wow, this reader had to be incredibly alert, an eagle-eye to spot this. From a comic strip:

The inside joke. Of course, everyone worth her salt in North Dakota will get the inside joke, but for everyone else "the fighting schwa" is a reference to the (RIP) "fighting Sioux."

Now, just between you and me, I think that's pretty clever. The reader who sent that to me also thought it was very clever; that's why the reader sent it to me. Hellooooo....

Now, how in the world does this end up in a cartoon strip and on this blog?

The rest of the story:

The screenshot is from "Amanda The Great," drawn by a cartoonist literally living in the heart of the Bakken, in Watford City, ND. And, yes, el-Dweek is her true surname, married.

Here's a March 2, 2018, article in The Williston Herald about the cartoonist, Amanda El-Dweek. It seems I've blogged about her before. I forget. I know when I first saw the surname, I assumed it was of Syrian descent.There's a huge Syrian population in western North Dakota -- I have blogged about that before -- many of whom made the Williston farming communities what they are today: huge, and highly successful, growing the best pasta-making hard wheat in the world. From the linked article:
El-Dweek, of Watford City, draws the comic stip “Amanda the Great,” online at The cartoon is light-hearted, focusing on the daily struggles of a woman who looks a lot like her.
As a matter of fact, it for the most part is her. So it’s no surprise people get to know her through her strip.
Amanda the Great has long been El-Dweek’s fictional counterpart. Coming up with the name was fairly easy.
“I used to sign my papers that way in college, and I got scolded for it. And rightfully so,” she said. “I did it just to be funny and not out of arrogance or anything.”
Okay, so where were we? Ah, yes, "the fighting Schwa."

I guess that's the end. I never knew what that upside-down 'e' was called and now I know. I can't wait to discuss this with Arianna, our oldest granddaughter who knows something about everything. Something tells me she will know what a "schwa" is. LOL.

I wanted to post a music video of Siouxsie Sioux at this point, but I just can't get "into' her music. So no Siouxsie Sioux video. We'll have to do with something else.

Loud and lots of bass:

I Love Rock & Roll, Joan Jett and The Blackhearts
The Book Page

Wow, sometimes I think the Grapevine (TX) public library is the best little public library in the world.

Book for the week: Ravensbrueck: Life and Death in Hitler's Concentration Camp for Women, Sarah Helm, c. 2014.

How she researched this story is incredible. Had it not been for her, the story would have likely been lost.

The book:
  • prologue: 8 pages
  • the book itself: 658 pages with a 26-page epilogue
  • six pages of acknowledgements
  • twenty-two pages of notes.
  • bibliography: 13 pages
  • index: 20 pages
Prologue: the setting. How this "quest" began. Her first visit to Ravensbrueck, about an hour's drive from Berlin's Tegel airport.

Chapter 1: Langefeld (chief female guard)
  • history of Johanna Langefeld, a chief guard at Ravensbrueck; single mom with one son; what she saw of returning German soldiers after WWI reminds me of the second half of the movie, Lawrence of Arabia -- and right, wrong, indifferent, explains a lot; apparently drifted away after the liberation (not sure about this) and suddenly, mysteriously reappeared at the door of a former prisoner, Grete Bber-Neumann, 1957, Frankfurt to tell her (Langefeld's) story
  • history of Heinrich Himmler -- makes me think of the movie, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • the history of the camps -- not what most folks think
  • first camp: Dachau
  • Appellplatz: camp square
  • how German women became infatuated with Adolf Hitler -- fascinating
  • camps were not originally meant for Jews
  • began with Hitler's determination to round up and crush all opposition, mostly Communists
  • SS: Schutzstaffel, the paramilitary squad first formed as Hitler's personal bodyguard; by the time Hitler came to power in 1933, Himmler had transformed the SS into an elite force; one of its tasks was to run the new concentration camps
  • Hitler's model for these concentration camps: concentration camps used for mass internment by the British during the South African War of 1899 - 1902. Dachau was the prototype -- designed by Himmler himself
  • first commandant of Dachau: Theodor Eicke -- a monster, if there ever was one
  • one of Theordor Eicke's recruits was Max Koegel, the future commandant of Ravensbrueck
  • the story of the women of Jehovah's Witnesses-- fascinating
Chapter 2: Sandgrube

Enough for now. Will be continued elsewhere.

Record High Run Rates In US Refining Industry -- August 2, 2018; Another Pipeline Linking The Bakken To The Gulf Coast

Exxon's oil supply and demand forecasts: link here

COP to sell Barnett shale assets, link at SeekingAlpha:
  • to Lime rock Resources -- a very, very familiar name in the Bakken
  • $230 million
  • 9K boepd; 55% natural gas; 45% NGL
  • 114,000 net acres
  • $230 million / 114,000 = $2,000 / acre
Another pipeline linking the Bakken to the gulf coast (and this will have little faux environmental pushback) -- Tallgrass eyes linking Cushing to Louisiana gulf cost, link here:
  • a proposal at this time: Seahorse Pipeline (August 17, 2018, update here)
  • 700-mile pipeline; Cushing to St James, LA, refining complex
  • also a separate export-capable liquids terminal near the mouth of the Mississippi River
  • 30-inch-diameter Seahorse Pipeline 
  • 800,000 bopd
  • similar to Tallgrass' Pony Express Pipeline (PXP)
  • the PXP, 760 miles from Guernsey, WY, to Cushing, went into service into 2014
EPD to expand Seaway Pipeline capacity, link here:
  • from 850,000 bpd to 950,000 bpd
  • by adding drag reducing agents will boost capacity by September, 2018
  • also considering converting natural gas liquids pipeline to increase takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin
Jobless claims, link here:
  • consensus: 218K
  • actual: 218 K
  • increased by 1K week over week; inconsequential
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today:
34058, SI/NC, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, no production data,
33117, conf, CLR, Bailey 8-24H, Pershing, 36K first full month; fracked 1/12/18 -3/20/18; lots of sand: 16.5 million gallons of water; 89% water;
24234, SI/NC, Enerplus, Hyena 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, FracFocus, has not been fracked; no production data,

Active rigs:

Active Rigs63593474194

RBN Energy: record high run rates in US refining industry.
While crude oil producers in the prolific Permian Basin are living out a Shale Revolution, the Midcontinent region of the U.S. is having a Refining Renaissance. Crude takeaway constraints, mainly due to insufficient pipeline capacity, are driving the prices of crude in Western Canada and West Texas to attractive lows against the WTI NYMEX benchmark for crude at the Cushing, OK, hub. Cheaper oil can contribute to bigger margins for refiners, who are supplying increasing volumes into a retail market that’s selling gasoline at the highest prices in four years. What will happen if the refiners don’t rein in their runs? Today, we’ll explore the implications of record-high run rates in the U.S. refining industry.