Sunday, October 20, 2024

More Examples Of Deflation / Disinflation -- Local Time, Tel Aviv, 2:17 A.M. -- October 20, 2024

Locator: 48611ARCHIVES.

Disinflation / deflation: again, another Amazon product on sale. I ordered this one -- without even looking at the price -- I was going to buy it regardless. I was on my bike at the time. When I got home, I received the message from Amazon that the order had been received. And that's when I noticed the price.  This is for Sophia (it's a surprise; don't tell her). She wants to be a marine biologist and study at UC-San Diego. I'm thinking maybe JCU, Australia -- see below.


Eggs, by the way, are down to $2.69 at Target today --- and surprise, surprise! They're almost sold out.

Yogurt? Chobani is on sale. Regularly $1.49 for 5.3-oz single serving; being sold today for $1.00 -- is that 33% off per serving? Sugar per serving? I''ll get back to that later.

GoogleAI: what is the best school in the world to study marine biology?

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Futures Tonight

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Apple iPhone 16

Folks buying the "16" for the camera. Especially the video.

An staying for the ChatGPT.

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Personal Investing

Cash management: this is where I park my cash until needed.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.
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GM: EV Sales -- October 20, 2024

Locator: 48610EVS.

Note: GM reports 3Q24 earnings this week.

These are dynamic updates -- accurate at the time they were posted but the numbers do change over time. In other words, the numbers below need to be updated / fact-checked.

Tracking

EVs: in round numbers --

  • 2022:
    • F: sold 61,575 EVs in 2022: became second-largest EV manufacturer in the US, behind Tesla
    • GM:
      • sold fewer than 25,000 EVs in 2022
  • 2023:
    • Lucid, expectation: 2,000 EVS, 2Q23. Actual: 1,404 (two less than 1Q23).
    • Tesla: 1.1 million EVs
    • F: 500,000 EVs -- original estimate
      • run rate
        • F-150 Lightning: 150,000 annual run rate
          • on track to triple production y/y
          • sold 3,600 through February, 2023
          • list price: $52K to $97K
      • Mustang Mach-E: 210,000 annual run rate
    • GM:
      • to deliver 400,000 EVs by end of 2023, link here; 
        • in fact, they barely delivered 75,000 EVs for the full year -- see below.
      • will build a third factory to build thee Silverado EV
      • currently: Factory Zero and the Orion assembly plant
  • 2024:
    • GM: lowered their forecast; now plans to deliver between 200,000 and 250,000 in CY24.
  • 2025:
  • 2026:
    • Tesla:
    • F: 2 million
      • to begin T3 pickup production; full capacity: 600,000 units / yearly
    • GM:
    • Toyota: to have ten models 

So, how many EVs did GM sell in 2023? Holy mackerel! Are you kidding me?

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So, Now Back To October 20, 2024

CEO Barra said GM would make a profit on EVs this year, 2024, and that the company would phase out ICE vehicles completely by 2035. Link here.

 So, I was curious how that was working out.

That's why the dynamic data was posted above.

Now, let's ask GoogleAI how many EVs GM would sell in 2024. This is from GoogleAI:


Having said that, making a profit is one thing, but it's all about margins.
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Labels: , ,

Rambling -- October 20, 2024

Locator: 48609ARCHIVES.

Fireworks: Netanyahu's security council convenes tonight. NSA / CIA will monitor Domino Pizza traffic at the White House tonight just to make sure they're in the loop.

CNN: "highly classified" US document discussing US monitoring Israeli intentions leaked. The big question: who leaked the document? Answer: whoever had most to gain from that document being leaked. The CNN story has a very, very big "tell." Link here. Hint: the document was not all that highly classified. LOL. But great headline story for CNN.

Biking: I got out of the habit of biking to Starbucks / Barnes and Noble / Apple, Southlake, TX, from home almost every day of the week when things were shut down during Covid. I keep planning to re-start that daily fitness plan but I'm getting older and lazier. And besides, I love watching Cramer / CNBC on the big screen at home. But I guess I can do that on my laptop -- or tablet.

About 15 miles round trip:

At Barnes and Noble now. Stopped at Apple on the way -- stayed about two minutes ... way, way too crowded -- shoulder-to-shoulder. 

But I did get to look at my blog on the M4 13-inch iPad Pro at the Apple store. Absolutely incredible. Fast and incredible resolution. Unfortunately I simply don't need to upgrade yet. But it's on my list for 2025. Depends. I was surprised how busy Apple store was today. Absolutely shoulder-to-shoulder. The laptop I'm using is an M1 MacBook Air.

I know it isn't -- or it shouldn't be -- but the wi-fi at B&N seems faster than my wi-fi at home (Spectrum). 

I had planned to visit the Southlake (Texas) library for the afternoon but it's closed on Sundays. Maybe it's always been closed on Sundays but I vaguely remember going on Sunday afternoon years ago. Covid changes?

Matein backpack. Best backpack I've ever had for short, local biking trips. It's hard to believe I lived out of a similar -- though slightly bigger backpack -- for a full summer hitchhiking across the US and spending the summer in Europe. Back in 1973. But I digress. I forget what i paid for my Matein backpack. Curious. Link. OMG. On Amazon. Again, 20% off. Prices falling faster than many expected.

Deflation / disinflation: see previous paragraph.

Sports: no Dallas game today but I'm missing NASCAR. Round of 8, I believe, but I've long lost much interest in NASCAR. Watch it occasionally.

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TECH

Point (this didn't age well, see Beth below, posted April, earlier this year, 2024:

Counter point (link, Beth):e

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Jargon -- Used Interchangeable By Many

The acronyms / the jargon:

  • AI: Artificial intelligence.
  • AI: Apple Intelligence.
  • HPC: high-performance computing.
  • LDC: large data centers.
  • HS: hyperscale; hyperscalers.
  • HSC: hyper-scale computing.
  • NVDA: IYKYK

Remember those "denial-of-service attacks? When there were coordinated attacks to bring down a particular website, or when a website simply couldn't keep up with legitimate demand (the "Taylor-Swift phenomenon")? We shouldn't be seeing those events any more. But systems still crash (the "crowdstrike phenomenon") which has/had nothing to do with the size of the crowd). 

Speaking of which: name three "things" used for printing money. Answer below.

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Daily Quiz

Name three "thinks" used for printing money.

Answer:

  • US Treasury printing presses.
  • Nvidia.
  • ASML.
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The US Labor Market Remains Very Strong -- October 20, 2024

Locator: 48608ECONOMY.

Linked earlier.

If you have time for just one article on the US economy today, this would be it. Especially in light of overnight news with regard to Boeing machinits strike.

Economic Policy Institute: pro-union.

Are you better off now than you were four years ago? 

The answer is clear: more workers have jobs and wages are beating inflation by solid margins.

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Apple Ready To Embed ChatGPT -- Sunday, October 20, 2024

Locator: 48607APPLE.

See this post regarding search engines using AI.

I still don't use ChatGPT. One needs to set up an account. 

ChatGPT is now a metonym. 

The secret to the success of ChatGPT is ease of use -- actually, better said, the secret of ChatGPT is when it's not a "thing." It simply works; it is simply embedded in your GUI / search.

Who does GUI best? Apple. 

And here it is, right on cue, link here.

Irony: Apple ready to embed ChatGPT, and Apple didn't invest billions of dollars in OpenAI.

With Apple we get stories on embedding ChatGPT.

With Intel, we get stories on "too big to fail."

By the way, speaking of "too big to fail," apparently the machinists and Boeing have come to terms and the strike is over.

By the way, if OpenAI / ChatGPT only works on M4 / iPhone 16s -- can you say "hypercycle"?

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Google's Use Of AI -- October 20, 2024

Locator: 48606GOOGLE.

I don't know if folks have noticed how google is using "AI" in their google searches -- one would have to be blind not to have noticed by now -- but I digress. I use Google's AI all the time now when doing searches. Great example here of how my search results are incorporated into blogs. 

Google is absolutely destroying Yahoo search and DuckDuckGo which have nothing similar. Huge, huge development. It will be interesting to see how this affects google ad revenue. My hunch: their ad revenue increases. Counter-intuitive. Bottom line: if you are trying to reach an audience using a search engine, would you pay a premium for Google, Yahoo, or DuckDuckGo?

But every time I hear a CNBC talking head suggesting that no one is yet using AI makes my head explode. 

Exhibit A. 

Google why is "North Dakota" the best state in which to live.

Google:

Yahoo Search: leads with a hit from Sporting News! LOL. I can't make this stuff up.

DuckDuckGo: maybe a bit better but still a pain compared to Google's AI answer:
 

If you are a high school student and have to prepare a 500-word essay for any topic, which search engine would you use?

YahooSearch and DuckDuckGo are going to have to "up" their game. 

My hunch: google will use AI to improve their search engine in all respects, not just the AI summary at the top.

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Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 30, 2024

Locator: 48605WELLS.

The wells:

  • 40217, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-7H, Little Knife, npd,40209, conf, Grayson Mill/Newfield, Hovland 26-35 6H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241335426961
7-20242107542678
6-2024917813226
5-20241735523728
  • 40592, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 5B, Truax, npd,
  • 26450, conf, Grayson Mill/Newfield, Hovland 150-99-26-35-4H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241780222968
7-20242282532215
6-20242239525615
5-20241430
  • 26449, conf, Grayson Mill/Newfield, Hovland 150-99-26-35-3H, South Tobacco Garden,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241710826320
7-20242277436151
6-20242152727979
5-2024980
  • 40598, conf, CLR, Doe 7-23H, Murphy Creek, npd,
  • 40216, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-6H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2024839913017
7-20241566817942
6-20241624323540
5-20241907327623
  • 40215, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-5H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241335318320
7-20242221330376
6-20242027129069
5-20242274032400
4-202412801898
  • 40597, conf, CLR, Doe 6-23H, Murphy Creek, npd, 
  • 40591, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 4B, Truax, npd, 
  • 40214, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-4H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241436917936
7-20241528018877
6-20241858024522
5-20242786936961
4-20241811
  • 40596, conf, CLR, Doe 5-23H, Murphy Creek, npd, 
  • 40213, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-3H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241168817422
7-20241995728370
6-20242469936202
5-20242889941284
4-202474139152
  • 40595, conf, CLR, Doe 4-23H, Murphy Creek, npd, 
  • 40590, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 2B, Truax, npd,   
  • 40220, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating/Liberty Resources, NM 158-92-1-19-2MBH, Cottonwood,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241826821062
7-20241874117474
6-20242424712161
5-20242740417447
4-202454213961
  • 38205, conf, Petroshale, Bear chase North 3MBH, Spotted Horn, npd
  • 40594, conf, CLR, Doe 3-23H, Murphy Creek, npd,
  • 40267, conf, Silver Hill Energy/Liberty Resources, NM 158-2-18-19-10MBH, Cottonwood,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241661320105
7-20241844516992
6-20242151610574
5-20243005717970
4-202458434736
  • 40212, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-2H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20242097925596
7-20241716323219
6-20242125932379
5-20243728649588
4-202476896968
  • 40211, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-1H-WLL, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-202445126012
7-20242172134214
6-20242307633858
5-20244468860486
4-20241574920165
  • 40593, conf, CLR, Doe 2-23HSL, Murphy Creek, npd,
  • 40265, conf, Silver Hill Energy/Liberty Resources, UT 158-93-12-1-20MBH, Cottonwood
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241156011191
7-20241293710879
6-2024170377937
5-20241959810288
4-202451303567
  • 40266, conf, Silver Hill Energy/Liberty Resources, CO 158-92-7-6-1MBH, Cottonwood,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20241244312624
7-20241267810391
6-2024168907666
5-2024181019927
4-202453663196

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Last Twelve Hours -- October 2024

Locator: 48604ARCHIVES.

CNN: "highly classified" US document discussing US monitoring Israeli intentions leaked. The big question: who leaked the document? Answer: whoever had most to gain from that document being leaked. The CNN story has a very, very big "tell." Link here. Hint: the document was not all that highly classified. 

Boeing: machinists strike is over?

NFL: from London this morning, JAX (1-5) vs New England (1-5). Wow.

Wages, US: two links, we may get back to this later:

Disinflation / deflation: yet another example of prices falling faster than many predicted.

Investing:

  • will the $9.5 trillion in money market assets make it into the stock market? Link here.
  • Microsoft spend, 2027: one big moat.
  • "new" acronym has been around since the 1990s: google commercial service provide.
  • US semiconductor ecosystem map: posted previously; still amazing.
  • AVGO: just knocked Tesla out of the magnificent seven. Link here.
  • SNOW, PLTR: no link but keep them in mind.
  • Intel (INTC): link here. Beth.
  • millennials: suddenly the wealthiest generation in the US. Previously posted.
  • Starbucks: customers want the coffee shop to bring back the condiment bar; a first-world problem. Link here.
  • Taiwan: anything but nuclear. Link here. Beth.
  • Schwab's tax planning life cycle. Schwab. Not much there, simply a reminder. I prefer this site.

Headline of the day: turns out, Telsa's Cybertruck is a hit. Link here.. 

That is very, very true -- I'm seeing the same thing here in north Texas -- the DFW area. It is truly amazing. It simply tells me that folks have a lot of money to spend and at 1.9% interest for a three-year loan, money is still almost free.

Science:

  • atmospheric rivers. LOL. An insurance company has made "this" a "thing." Link here.
  • microRNA and the Nobel prize. Link here. Another Rosalind = Nobel Prize story.

The Conversation: a new link for the blog?

Arts and books:

  • why Jackson Pollock owed everything to Claude Monet, New York Times. Link here.
  • Frankenstein: nice essay from The Conversation. Link here.
  • Frankenstein, Mary Shelley, the review: NYT, February 5, 2018 (note the date of the review); link here.
  • Ossa, Olympus, Pelion, Brittannica. Link here. Cleverly referenced by Percy Bysshe Shelley in review of Mary Shelley's Frankenstein. Pronunciation (don't overthink it): "bish" -- rhymes with "dish -- the final "e" is silent and is an exception to the "final e" rule regarding preceding vowel sound. Wow. Finally got that out of my system.

Board game: "Ticket to Ride." It must be a Portland thing. The New York Times.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.

Look how far we've come. When the original version of the disclaimer appeared, I was focused on MDU. LOL.
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