Friday, January 14, 2022

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong: Expect "Cases" To Surge Starting Next Week. Not. -- January 14, 2022


January 15, 2022: starting February 2, 2022, hospitals will no longer be required to report daily deaths from Covid-19 to the federal government if Jon Gabriel is accurate. In addition, free in-home testing is going to surge, and folks are not going to report positive tests to the CDC. So, putting two + two together, the original post was wrong, wrong, wrong. 

"Positive tests" = "cases" will fall dramatically if those tests satisfy "passport" requirements. This is absolutely fascinating to watch, now that we are moving into the mid-terms. 
I doubt the CDC will be taking reports from John or Jane Dow when he/she tries to report a positive test to the CDC.

Original Post

"Positive tests" = "cases."

All households: four tests for each household, including shipping fees, absolutely free.

In addition, Medicare will pay for two tests each week per person, with a maximum of eight in-home tests per Medicare-eligible individual per month.  

Timing is important for pharmacies. The current (and perhaps, last) variant surge is about to peak.

The Twins Have Marked Their Calendar

Bumper Year Of Natural Gas Commitments In 2021

Link here.

North Dakota "Federal" Oil -- Judge Rules Against The State -- Lease Sales Won't Be Held -- January 14 , 2022

This should tell you all you need to know how concerned Joe Biden and his SecEnergy are with regard to high price of gasoline. As an investor, I'm lovin' it. It will have minimal to no effect on price of oil but it keeps more oil off the market. Remember, operators can turn on a dime when it comes to producing oil from shale in North Dakota.

Link here.

Week 2: January 9, 2022 -- January 15, 2022

Top story of the week:

  • Joe Biden is still president and actually performing to expectations.

Most under-reported story this past week:

  • Joe Biden is performing to expectations.
  • Tesla delays rollout of the Cybertruck: what this means for Ford and Rivian.
  • WTI hits $84.
  • It appears Biden it telegraphing to Putin a "velvet-glove" takeover will be preferred to the alternative.

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

  • East Coast anticipating a nor'eastern.

Top national energy story:

  • Boston electricity source: burning oil / coal greater than renewable energy.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Quick connects.






Bakken economy;


Need A List ? January 14, 2022

Link here. Gains since 12/27:

Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 14, 2022

NE ISO: just breaking. From a reader who follows it more closely than I do -- I think he follows the Utica, Marcellus and NE the way I follow the Bakken:

The NE ISO site for 6 PM tomorrow (Day Ahead) just hit $203/Mwh for 16,702 contracted Megawatts.  
While the spot displays Real Time market circumstances, the Day Ahead (also called 'Cleared' and shown by the green line on the site's very first chart) actually provides about 90% of the amount and price that New Englanders are responsible for.

Tomorrow  looks to be viciously cold, meaning vast amounts of piped natgas will go to heating
Remaining fuel for electricity generation will mainly  be fuel oil or Trinidadian LNG which is being injected from the FSRU  anchored 14 miles off Boston harbor. 
If the cold continues much longer, replenishment 'issues' may arise. 
Comment: huge nor'eastern forecast for this weekend. Watch Shepard Smith tonight.

Canada: finally, finally, finally. Canadian oil will be the huge winner. Heavy oil will be in heavy demand. Without it, the Bakken is challenged. Mexico, a source of heavy oil, will phase out exports. 

WTI: crossed $84 (going up) today. When does Brandon announce a windfall profits tax? My hunch: June 15, 2022.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3211516755

No new permits.

Three permits canceled:

  • Denbury: three CHSU permits in Bowman County.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37919, 2,331, Slawson, Sniper Federal 3-6-7H, Big Bend, minimal production,
    • vertical hole: 18.9 hours
    • the build took 8.3 hours
    • the lateral took 37.3 hours of drilling; this was a long (2-section) lateral
    • total hours for drilling: 65 hours = 2.7 days to drill to depth
    • the lateral ranged from 11' below the upper Bakken shale down to approximately 23' below the upper Bakken shale (12-foot seam)
    • gas: peaks in excess of 2,500 units while in the middle Bakken
    • 81% of the lateral was drilled within the target zone; minimal exposure outside of the target zone;
    • frack data: fracked from 9/28/21 - 10/1021; 14.94 million gallons of water;92.27% water by mass; a big frack;
  • 33577, 1,135, Grayson Mill Operating (Equinor), Jennifer 26-35 XW 1TFH, scout ticket not udpated;
    • vertical to curve: started at 11:35 a.m. July 5, 2017, and reached at 9:40 p.m., same day; so about ten hours of drilling;
    • lateral took two runs
    • began at 5:30 a.m. July 8, 2017, TD reached on July 11, 2017.
    • so this well was drilled during the summer of 2017, and wasn't fracked until 2021
    • fracked 11/19/21 - 11/27/21; a small frack; only 7 million gallons of water; water 88.1% by mass;

Notes From All Over -- January 14, 2022

Schools and Covid. Wow, our grandchildren are fortunate to live in a school district that has "handled" the Covid issue without the hysterics. It is amazing how well the school district is doing despite quite a surge in number of positive tests.

CNBC: there were (at least) four major business stories today, the last day before the three-day weekend. 

I didn't want much of CNBC today -- the weather was way too nice to stay inside -- but I watched enough to see that CNBC did not report on one of the top stories: the surge in the price of oil. Probably not a major business story today but certainly a minor story that needed some attention was Apple, Inc. And that was another company not covered at all. 

CNBC isn't telling me so I will have to check another source, but it appears .... yes, there it is, WTI closed above $84 today and Brent closed above $86. 

Peleton: gone from the NASDAQ. Wow. that's amazing. I did not even know the NASDAQ had listing requirements. LOL.Oh, that's it. Not the NASDAQ but the NASDAQ 100 -- Peloton will be replaced by Dominion Freightlines. But CNBC gave an analyst a lot of time arguing Peloton was at a "buy" point. Okay.

The story that is never discussed on CNBC is NE ISO which seems to be an incredibly big story. But when Boston is getting more electricity from burning oil than from renewables ... well, there seems to be a story there.

Is this the energy story to follow? Diesel. Apparently, according to Bloomberg, diesel prices are soaring around the world. Gee, I wonder why. I have a hunch. To the Bloomberg paywall

Apple: is still looking for content. Wedbush is reporting that Apple is ready to spend billions on "live sports content." Numbers: willing to spend $7 billion annually; has $200 billion cash. Link here. Apple needs to negotiate the end of the "blackout" rule.

By the way, we're all watching and waiting for a "nor'eastern" to hit the East Coast this weekend. Already much of the eastern fringe of the midwest is already on a storm watch. The NFL playoff game in Buffalo, NY, will be one to watch. My hunch: it's postponed or moved to a new location.

Pickups: someday, I'm going to learn the preferred spelling. But for now, link here: rich people drive expensive cars. Really rich people drive pickups." 

The F-150 is the most popular vehicle driven by millionaires. Most millionaires in America are self employed business owners — property owners, developers, plumbing & HVAC company owners. It’s a great truck and a business expense.

Netflix: will raise fees. Per household, the increase will not be noticed. We're talking a dollar or two per month. Households have a much bigger problem than price increase in Netflix: the price increase for electricity as more and more renewable energy comes on line.

Banks: one of the biggest "bank" stocks is Berkshire Hathaway. Apparently the US banks had a "bad" day on the market today; I didn't pay much attention. But BRK-B gained $2.87. Interesting, to say the least. I would not have expected that. 

Inflation: more and more analysts suggest inflation is already peaking, which may explain why the banks apparently had a bad day today. Digging below the surface with regard to inflation suggests inflation is not exactly something about which I need to be worried. In fact, a moderate bit of inflation is very, very welcome. This has been discussed before.

Should we look at the Bakken oils?

  • EOG: up $3.61 at the close. After hours, gaining more.
  • HES: up $1.17.
  • MNRL: up 3.5%.
  • CLR: up almost 4%.
  • ERF: up almost 5.5% at the close and gaining a bit more after hours.
  • NOG: ditto; up almost 5% af the close and continued to gain a bit after hours.

Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania: whatever happened to that Delta refinery? It was a big story in the early days of the Bakken revolution. Well, glad you asked. That refinery operated at a profit for the second consecutive quarter as lower renewable fuel blending compliance costs supported refining operations. Think "jet fuel." Link here

Enbridge: my favorite energy company? If not, it's on the top ten list. Enbridge announces that its hydrogen blending project is now operational, reducing the carbon footprint of natural gas delivery. 

The project -- a joint venture between Enbridge and Cummins Inc -- serves the city of Markham, Ontario. Markham is the first big city northeast of Detroit, MI, about a four-hour drive through some incredibly beautiful country. Markham is directly across the lake, on the north share, from Niagara Falls. So, that's where the "falls" are. Never knew. It's not on my bucket list to ever visit -- I don't have a bucket list -- but if I'm ever in the Detroit area again, I will take a side trip to Markham. 

Memories: decades ago I was hitchhiking across the US, from Williston, ND, to NYC, on my way to Europe for the summer. I hitchhiked without a map. SOP for males. I headed toward Detroit before I realized I was on the wrong "track." I stopped at a gas station to look at the map. Wow, was I disappointed. Had to back track a bit to get back below the lake and back toward Pennsylvania.

Nimble: is not a word that describes my investing ability. A while ago I bought a few shares of ARKK to diversity my portfolio, even though I was aware of some crazy talk from Cathie Wood. But, once ARKK turned south some days (weeks?) ago, I sold. I've never sold so fast. I sold before the end of the year as a tax-loss trade. Even so, my losses were minimal. But I learned a huge lesson: stick with my plan. Buying ARKK was never part of my plan. I got sucked in ...

ISO NE Burning More Oil Than Renewable Energy For Power -- January 14, 2022

Carbon pricing: before we get to NE ISO, having already exempted "privately-owned jets" from "carbon pricing penalties," the EU has now voted to exempt "privately-owned yachts" from "CPP."  

Now, back to the Boston and burning oil to make electricity, something I thought we only saw in third world countries.

Link to ISO NE.

Meanwhile, In Other News

Sweden: Meanwhile, in a country that actually has no energy of its own, a Swedish power plant that's vital to keeping the country's lights on used almost eight times more oil last year as the energy crunch boosted demand for the dirtiest fuels. Link here.  Or go direct to the Bloomberg paywall.

Germany: to become net power importer for the first time since 2002. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. Greta does a victory lap. 

1:30 P.M. CT -- January 14, 2022


Director's Cut -- November, 2021, Data

Usual disclaimer: this is done for my benefit. I do it quickly. There will be content and typographical errors. I generally do not go back to correct errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here

Crude oil:

  • November, 2021: 1,159,778 bopd
  • October, 2021: 1,110,910 bopd
  • increase month / month: 48,868 bopd
  • increase month / month: +4.4%

Natural gas:

  • November, 2021: 3,072,306 MCF / day
  • October, 2021: 2,999,281 MCF / day
  • increase: month / month: 73,025 MCF / day
  • increase: month / month: +2.4%

Natural gas capture rate: 94%

Crude oil price:

  • today: $74.25
  • November, 2021: $72.03
  • October, 2021: $74.35

Rig count:

  • today: 32 vs 95 in New Mexico
  • December: 32
  • November: 33
  • October: 29

Wells, permitted:

  • December: 45
  • November: 50
  • October: 37

Wells, completed:

  • December: 81 (preliminary)
  • November: 60 (revised)
  • October: 41

Wells, inactive:

  • November: 1,957
  • October: 1,881


  • November: 416
  • October: 457

Wells, producing;

  • November: 17,238 (preliminary) (new all-time high -- with only 32 rigs)
  • October: 17,164

Frack spreads:

  • this past week: 8
  • range over past two years:
  • high: 25
  • low: 1 (no typo -- one frack spread)

"Massive Investment Cycle" -- Understatement Of The Day -- But How Else Can You Say It? -- January 14, 2022

Most folks are unaware:

"When the sort of super excess demand related to COVID and online retail started to abate last year, you saw how much they were spending,” Mahaney said. “Amazon has increased its distribution capacity, all of its fulfillment centers, etc., it’s increased by I think as much in the last few years as Walmart has in its entire history. There is a massive investment cycle going on at Amazon.”

Walmart was founded on July 2, 1962, fifty-nine years ago.

I could be wrong, but I have not seen any Walmart van ever delivering to residential neighborhoods. Amazon vans are seen delivering three to four times each day in our apartment complex, generally once in the morning, once or twice in the afternoon, and then a final delivery in the early evening. 

But never a Walmart delivery van. 

I've said several times on the blog that the Covid pandemic accelerated / telescoped 2020 - 2035 into 2020 - 2025. 

Everyday, looking out my back window, Amazon is reminding me which company will deliver to my doorstep, not only in one day, but often same day.

Lookin' Out My Back Door, CCR

On A Down Day For The Market -- WTI Goes Back Over $83 -- January 14, 2023

All of Devon's charts point higher.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

On a really bad day for the market:

  • Tesla: up $12
  • NVDA: up $4
  • AAPL: up $1
  • all the oils up on $83 oil

I'll take it.

  • Moderna is up 60% for the year. 

Speaking of which, mid-January, north Texas, shirt-sleeve weather. 

If this is global warming, I'm all in.

Going biking. Off the net. 

Good luck to all. 

DWAC - January 14, 2022

On a down day for the market, DWAC is up $2.45, trading at $70, up 3.35%.

From September 2, 2021:

MIAMI, FL / ACCESSWIRE / September 2, 2021 / Digital World Acquisition Corp. (the "Company") announced today that it priced its initial public offering of $250 million, consisting of 25,000,000 units at $10.00 per unit. The units are expected to be listed on the Nasdaq Global Market ("Nasdaq") and begin trading tomorrow, Friday, September 3, 2021, under the ticker symbol "DWACU".

Hyunjoo Jin Exclusive -- Jim Farley Getting Read To Open The Champagne -- January 14, 2022

Biggest story so far today that won't get much press: Tesla delays CyberTruck rollout. Won't be available in 2022 as promised; now, earliest, sometime in 2023. 

Hyunjoo Jin has an exclusive: Tesla will delay initial production of its Cybertruck to early 2023. And even that looks questionable. Link here.  Oh, Tesla might roll out "a" Cybertruck in early 2023 but it won't look a bit like the one in the video below.

Think about that.

2022. 2023.

We're barely into 2022. We have essentially a full year of 2022 left. 

Elon Musk blames supply chain shortages but wasn't the CyberTruck unveiled in November, 2019 -- more than two years ago? Ford faced the same supply chain shortages -- one can argue Ford had worse challenges -- and Ford has already released the Lightning F-150. It seems Tesla has been working on EVs for a decade or more, and it's only working on EVs. 

Ford, meanwhile, has a few other things to complicate the lives of their employees -- and, seemingly, out of nowhere, Ford has a winner of an EV pickup truck. 

My hunch: this had less to do with supply chain shortages and more to do with a complete re-design. Not only is the superficial design a joke, is there a box? I mean a box that can actually carry something. So, we'll see. 

Apparently American pick-up buyers were not ready for this ...

... or this:

Looking back on this: does anyone really believe this truck will be available for less than $40,000?

Oh, I get it. The more-expensive truck will have stronger windows.

So, Where Is This All Going?

From 79,000 feet this is how the EV market will play out in North America:



  • TBD. White House, Algore, Hillary, Trump, Bezos, will have luxury-brand SUVs
  • Ford, possibly #1 by putting a SUV body on top of a Lightning chassis.

Pick-ups: Ford, #1.

Fleet delivery vans:

  • Ford. #1 among second-tier retailers, Walmart, Target.
  • Daimler Truck Group: #1 among the elite retailers.

Medium haul: Daimler Truck Group, #1.

Long haul: Daimler Truck Group, #1. 

Specialty, heavy-duty: Daimler Truck Group, #1.

The Waste, The Waste -- January 14, 2022

This is an interesting story because of what was not said. 

Disclaimer: I think CenterPoint Energy is one of my long-term holdings in one of my orphaned portfolios. Long forgotten. If so, dividends were reinvested over the 30+ years I've had it. Assuming I have it. I really don't know. If I have it, I don't plan to sell it, so I'm not going to go looking for it, and if I don't have it, it's a moot point, I guess. I have no interest in the company but it seems I did buy shares in this company at one time. Long forgotten


But a digression. As I was saying, this is an interesting story because of what was not said.

Link here

Headline: CenterPoint wants to spend $900 million on two natural gas plants that will run ten percent of the time.

Now why would they do that? 

This is a very, very long article. Archived.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Thirty-Two Active Rigs -- January 14, 2022

Tesla: stumbles. 

Amazon: can it get any bigger?

Market: everything's on sale. 

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3211516755

Friday, January 14, 2022: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 18 for the year

  • 38396, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 10-7HSL1,
  • 37233, conf, Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-24D-13-3B,
  • 37132, conf, Hess, BL-Frisinger-LE-156-95-2804H-1,

RBN Energy: Kinder Morgan's short- and long-term prospects, part 2.

Over the last decade and a half, oil and gas companies have taken investors on a wild roller coaster ride as their ambitious growth strategies and stock prices have been boosted, then badly battered, by volatile demand and commodity prices. With sentiment toward the old-school energy industry turning negative, producers and midstreamers shifted course to emphasize value over volume, prioritizing solid cash flow generation and substantial shareholder returns. Midstream giant Kinder Morgan has found it especially difficult to win back investor confidence despite its largely successful efforts to stabilize its balance sheet, internally fund growth, and gradually restore its dividend. But will that be enough to improve the company’s prospects? In today’s RBN blog, we draw on more highlights from our recent Spotlight report on KMI’s portfolio, performance, and near-term growth potential, with an emphasis on the opportunities ahead.

Earlier we reviewed the company’s history and outlined its new strategic initiatives. Since its founding in 1997, Kinder Morgan has employed a variety of industry-leading structures and strategies, including a master limited partnership (MLP), a leveraged buyout, an initial public offering, and a consolidation of its holdings into a C-Corp, to grow into a midstream colossus with a market cap that neared $100 billion in early 2015. However, in 2014-15, investors concerned about plunging oil prices began abandoning the sector. KMI’s stock price was hit particularly hard, plummeting 66% between the fall of 2014 and the fall of 2015 on concerns about its elevated debt load. Unable to fund future expansion as its stock price cratered and debt soared, the company slashed its dividend by 75% in late 2015 in order to preserve cash to fund its sizable project backlog, which triggered an ice-cold response from shareholders.