Weekly US Crude Oil Inventory Number Plunges -- API -- June 26, 2018; T+28

API: US crude oil inventory plunges. Forecast for a 2.5 million bbl draw; in fact, the actual draw was 9.228 million bbls. If the EIA number confirms a similar draw tomorrow -- one word, wow. Hold on to your wallet when stopping to fill up with gasoline.

WTI: surges. Up almost 4%. Closes at $70.77.

LLS: closes at $75.66.

Canadian dollar: holds at US 75 cents.

Stunned? Surprised? I don't know but here it is: remember -- this is the US District Court for the District of California -- a BusinessWire story -- the court has issued a ruling dismissing the climate change lawsuits filed against Chevron Corporation by the cities of San Francisco and Oakland. A lot of legalese, but basically a frivolous suit thrown out. 

Permian pipeline project announced: will cross an international border. Oh-oh. From oilprice.com: Kinder Morgan, flush with new cash from Canada -- having sold the Trans Mountain Pipeline project to Mr Trudeau-- announces a new Permian pipeline project. By the way, if I'm not mistaken, a Kinder Morgan subsidiary may have sold the project to Canada, but the company will still get first shot at the contract to build it. What a hoot. If built, Canada will eventually sell it back to Kinder Morgan, no doubt. Now, back to the linked article:

• Kinder Morgan will team up with Apache Corp and a Blackstone subsidiary
  
• a US$2-billion, 2-billion-cf gas pipeline project from the Waha area to the Gulf Coast and to Mexico
• will be interesting to see if the new Mexican president will "buy into this" project with all the animosity between the two countries
• scheduled to begin operations in 2020
• the article suggests that the Permian play is an oil-dominated play (I tend to disagree; makes me wonder about the writer's credentials)
• this is KMI's second such project in the Permian
• two months ago KMI started construction of the Gulf Coast Express Project
• US$1.75 billion; 1.98 billion cubic feet of natural gas from the Permian to Agua Dulce in Tex
• should be operational in late 2019
• already fully subscribed for the long term

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Screen Shot Of The Day

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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

First it was the Permian. Then the Gulf of Mexico. Now it's Norway that is setting new production and discovery records.

From oilprice.com: Norway's oil discoveries on track for best year since 2010. A nice reminder that Statoil is now Equinor. From the linked article:

[C]ompanies [exploring on the Norwegian Continental Shelf] are on track to find nearly 1 billion barrels of oil equivalents this year.

These calculations show that the resources found per well could reach their highest since 2010—the year in which the giant Johan Sverdrup oil field was discovered in the North Sea with resources estimated at between 2.1 billion and 3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalents.

Johan Sverdrup—with production start planned for late 2019—will be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years and will be the main contributor to Norway’s rising oil production until 2023.

Peak oil? What peak oil?

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Peak Natural Gas? Nope, Not Yet

 We should see the official EIA data tomorrow. From SeekingAlpha today:

North Dakota's policy / guidance regarding flaring at this site. It may show up on your desktop as a pdf.

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Peak Water

Keeping to its announced schedule, the US Army Corps of Engineers is releasing 60,000 cubic feet per second from the Garrison Dam in an effort to low flood waters in the Bakken. Today's report:

Missouri River Continues To Rise; Additional Water Will Be Released At Garrison Dam -- June 18, 2018

This is an update from an earlier post. From The Bixmarck Tribune:

The Missouri River will rise another foot and a half near Bismarck this week as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers again steps up releases from the Garrison Dam, which is cresting 7.25 feet below 2011 flood levels.

Water released will go from 44,000 cubic feet per second to 52,000 cfs over the next three days, reaching the 52,000 cfs rate on Wednesday and continuing at this rate into early July. That is equal to 388,987 gallons per second. The increase is due to continued rapid snowpack melt and rainfall runoff.

Now for some fun.

We've done this before.

Conversion:

• one cubic foot of water = 7.48 gallons
• 50,000 cubic feet of water = 374,000 gallons
• the USACOE will release 374,000 gallons of water every second starting in two days and going into early July -- let's say, maybe a month of an increased rate
• but I digress
• in one second: 374,000 gallons of water
• one minute: 22 million gallons of water (enough water to frack two Bakken wells)
• one hour: sixty times that much or enough water to frack 120 Bakken wells
• one day: 24 x 120 Bakken wells = 2,880 Bakken wells
• the oil industry will probably frack about 1,500 Bakken wells this year

I remember when folks worried whether there would be enough water in North Dakota to frack all those wells. 

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and I often round numbers.

Venezuela Story Updated -- June 5, 2018

At this link.

I think this is going to be a huge story. It may be bigger than the Greek story (near default) some years ago; bigger than the recent Italian story. There are so many story lines. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If the NY Times fails to cover this story in detail, it's letting its readers down.

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Fun in the Sun

Updates

June 18, 2018: see update here.

Original Post

From The Bismarck Tribune: Lake Sakakawea levels expected to peak in coming week.

The lake is forecasted to continue its rise through next week, rising another 3.5 feet to peak near an elevation of 1,851.5 feet, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' June 5 outlook. The lake rose 4.3 feet during the month of May to its current level of 1,848.1 feet, about a foot higher than what was expected.

Two things: more than enough water in North Dakota for fracking. One can track Garrison Dam release rate at this link, but unfortunately, one day at a time, and will download as a pdf.

• Garrison Dam water release

Weather.gov has river elevation at the Garrison Dam on a daily basis.

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Cognitive Dissonance

As regular readers of the blog know, the "blogger.app" owned by Google won't allow links to Fox news outlets. Now this:

Thursday, Part II -- June 25, 2015

I guess this is why I was surprised by the earlier stories that hydroelectric power was struggling across the US, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. There had been reports of a fair amount of spring run-off this year. Yes, I know the two are unrelated, but ...

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

Spring rainfall that boosted the flow of the Bighorn and Powder rivers, both tributaries to the Yellowstone River, has prompted a reduction in releases from Fort Peck Reservoir in northeast Montana.

Fort Peck backs up the Missouri River, but the Missouri and Yellowstone flow into Lake Sakakawea, just over the border in North Dakota.

With the Powder River hitting a peak of about 9,000 cubic feet per second earlier this month and the Bighorn still cranking out about 13,900 cfs, it was decided to cut the flows from Fort Peck to help offset the heavier flows into Sakakawea from the Yellowstone River basin. The Yellowstone River at Sidney peaked at about 60,000 cfs in the first week of June.

Fort Peck’s elevation was 2,237 feet on Wednesday with releases from the dam at 9,400 cfs instead of the 10,000 cfs that was planned last month.

For those interested, this is the link to the daily Garrison Dam releases (a dynamic link).  Today's scheduled release: 21,000 cfs. This takes me back to one of my favorite posts. Google "Garrison" at the blog to see a fair number of posts on Garrison Dam releases, such as this one. I guess I have a "Garrison Dam" tag also.

Don sent me the link years ago and it remains one of my favorites.

Flooding in Western North Dakota

Links

US Army Corps of Engineers

Photos:

• June 1, 2011

Updates

August 31, 2013: Update on repairs --

Work is also being done on the dam's massive flood control gates, all 28 of them. The gates have the capacity to release 660,000 cfs at maximum operating pool of 1,854 feet. A record level of 1,854.8 feet occurred in 1975. Lake Sakakawea reached 1,854.6 feet on July 1, 2011.

"The gates had never been used prior to 2011," noted Lindquist. "We're conducting testing to insure the welds and structural integrity of the gates. We'll be painting them and replacing seals. Meanwhile, everything remains operational."

Corps preparing for rest of summer, looking to 2012. High levels will persist; wet areas receding very slowly, and still huge amounts of water to pass through. July 29, 2011.

Leak in the Dike At Williston; Corps Closes Levee to the Public, June 1, 2011

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has restricted all public access to a seven-mile portion of the levee around Williston.

Corps officials said crews have been working to fix a small "boil", or leak in the levee as well as conduct inspections.

Wolf Point, Montana, to see flooding, Billings Gazette, May 31, 2011.


In the middle of the worse flooding on the Missouri in its history, the US Army Corps of Engineers found time (May 31, 2011) to release the results of this study:

The Army Corps of Engineers has released a final environmental study on the impact of building nesting habitat for endangered birds on the Missouri River.

Parts of the river between Fort Peck, Mont., and Sioux City, Iowa, are designated as critical habitat for the piping plover and interior least tern. Both species build nests on sandbars and sandy shoreline.

Something tells me the Corps releasing water from Ft Peck dam has inundated all those sandbars. May 31, 2011.

First time ever: Corps Will Raise Spillway Gates at Garrison; Public Cleared Out, May 31, 2011

From a Bismarck resident, Sunday, May 30, 2011:

"...Many of the homes near the river are already 3 feet deep in water and they haven’t even started the really high water releases yet from the dam.  They were releasing 12 cubic feet per second....today they are 120 cfs and will go to the max of 150 csf in a week.  They are estimating about $300,000,000 worth of homes will be lost.  They are also saying there will be water filling the basements for 2 months.......and the whole town could lose water and sewage (in 3 to 4 weeks).   The National Guard is here plus about 8,000 to 10,000 people are volunteering with sandbagging, etc.  They have moved a lot of the animals from the zoo....can’t move the big Kodiac bears as they are about 20 years old and would not survive the anesthetics.  So, if it gets too bad they will destroy them.  It is really sad here.  Will likely hit the national news in a week or two when the pictures are more shocking..."

May 30, 2011: South Dakota flooding due to release of water at Garrison Dam. Cities affected: Pierre, Yankton.

From Neil (again, not sure exactly when these numbers apply, due to fact, I got to e-mail late, and still catching up:

Fort Peck power house 10,000
Fort Peck spillway 40,000
Milk River 10,000
Yellowstone 75,000 - unsure if this will maintain.
Expected gauge at Culbertson after a few days 60,000-probably Sunday or so.
Expected gauge are Williston after a few days 135,000
I am also told that the Milk River watershed in Canada has seen some major rain and that might bump the Milk substantially during these high releases.

Sunday, May 29, 2011: Corps to release more water at Garrison.

Neil sent this note, Saturday evening, May 28:

On Thursday Fort Peck will go to 50,000 cfs. With the Milk River and others the flow at Williston bridge will be 140,000 cfs.

Gregg sent this note, Saturday, May 28, 5:05 p.m.:

The corp of engineers,state,city, and county officials are having a briefing, 5:30 Bismarck time. KFYR radio will be broadcast it over the internet.
Its a real drama playing out down there.

http://www.kfyr.com/main.html

Original Post

For those interested in a "almost-instantaneous" information on water flowing into Sakakawea Lake (behind Garrison Dam, North Dakota) and water being released, this is some interesting information.

I have to thank "Don" for putting all this information together and sending it forward:

The total inflow to Garrison/Lake Sakakawea from these three (3) sources is (as I) type: 121,400 cubic feet  per second.

The release is 90,000 cubic feet per second.

These flows will go up or down. But there is only 4 ft in the Lake Sakakawea before it breaches the spillway locks on the east side of Garrison Dam. 

76,900 cft per sec from the Yellowstone River;  25,200 from the Missouri (Big MO), and 19,300 from the Little Missouri.

The Yellowstone River near Sidney, Montana:

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?site_no=06329500

BIG Missouri near Culbertson, Montana:

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?site_no=06185500

Little Missouri in Medora, North Dakota:

http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nd/nwis/uv?site_no=06336000

I cannot even imagine 30,000 cubic feet of water per second net inflow into the lake. Per second.