Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Detachment 201 -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48849MILITARY.

Link here.

In a ceremony in June at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Arlington, Va., four current and former executives from Meta, OpenAI and Palantir lined up onstage to swear an oath to support and defend the United States.

The U.S. Army had just created a technical innovation unit for the executives, who were dressed in combat gear and boots. At the event, they were pronounced lieutenant colonels in the new unit, Detachment 201, which will advise the Army on new technologies for potential combat.

“We desperately need what they are good at,” Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll said of the tech executives, who have since undergone basic training. “It’s an understatement how grateful we are that they are taking this risk to come and try to build this out with us.”

EV Update: Class 8 Trucks And Pick-Up Trucks -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48848EVS.

Updates

Later, 7:52 p.m. CT: I wrote the original post earlier today. Late this afternoon, this article:

The Trump administration is proposing nearly $1 billion in funding to speed the development of U.S. critical minerals and materials, used in everything from electric vehicle batteries to semiconductors, the Energy Department said on Wednesday.

The department intends to offer funding to advance and scale up mining, processing and manufacturing technologies in the critical minerals and materials supply chains, sectors that have been dominated by China and other countries, the statement said.

Original Post

Earlier today as a one-off, I posted the following:

I'm not at liberty to reveal the source, but the EV truck industry in the US is dead.
One large Class 8 truck manufacturer, at one location, a year ago, before Trump, was producing as many as twelve Class 8 EV trucks DAILY.
That same facility is now manufacturing as few as two such trucks every MONTH

Now, this, talk about a coincidence. I read this late this afternoon:

This was from the Bloomberg Technology interview with FORD CEO Jim Farley on April 26, 2022

Bloomberg's Sonali Basak, "Jim, look out into the future for a second here, can you see all the F-150s going electric? And what would it take for that to happen?"
Farley: "No way. I don't see that happening. If yor're towing a fifth wheel in Wyoming (Rocky Mountains), or you know with a horse trailer, there is no way.
An electric vehicle is not a good solution for super duty customers.
We're 50% of all commercial light duty vehicles in the US so we know. And the technology is not right for that. For the retail customer who is doing some light towing or commuting to work, it's perfect.
For for heavy duty usage customer, it's not the right solution So you're going to see a mix of ICE and BEV."

So, why feature towing so prominently in commercials?

Fast forward, August, 2025: Ford announces a $30K-pickup truck for real urban cowboys.

Four New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; Eleven Permits Canceled; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48847B.

WTI: $62.65.

Active rigs: 35.

Four new permits, #42210 - #42213, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for four BL-Svor wells, lot 4, section 4-156-95, 
      • to be sited 389 / 488 FNL and 891 FWL.

Eight permits renewed:

  • Summit Carbon Storage (6): all wildcats; BK Fischer (2); KJ Hintz (1); TB Leingang (2); Mercer and Oliver counties;
  • KODA Resources (2): two Stout permits in Divide County; Fertile Valley oil field.

Eleven permits canceled:

  • WPX (7): seven FBIR MHA permits in Dunn County;
  • CLR (4): two Charleston permits and two Olympia permits, all in Williams County.

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 41011, 926, Oasis, Sawtooth Federal 5202 24-20 4B,
  • 41118, 955, Oasis, Sawtooth Federal 5202 24-20 3B,
  • 41200, 1,296, MRO, Alverson 24-32H,
  • 41462, 1,090, Boxcar 4-9-16 2H,
  • 41463, 1,282, Boxcar 4-9-16-3H,
  • 41464, 1,311, Boxcar 4-9-16 4H,
  • 41465, 705,Boxcar 4-9-16 5H,

Whiting Oil acquired a couple of wells from White Rock Oil & Gas, LLC.

  • old wells in McKenzie County.

AMD -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48846INVESTING.

Chart of the day:

That 15% tariff story -- pure gold?

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Cisco Systems

If Oracle is the poor man's Palantir, then Cisco is the poor man's Oracle.

Link here.

AAPL: what a difference a month makes --


Owns "no" tech:

New Jersey -- Taking A Page From Germany's Net-Zero Goal Goal -- WSJ - August 10, 2025

Locator: 48845ELECTRICITY_STATE_RATES.

This was posted on a "sister" blog over the weekend, but now the story is starting to get legs. "They" say the sharp surge in electricity rates in New Jersey take effect in June, 2025, yet to be reported. Most recent EIA data is through May, 2025. See below. Posting this now to compare with new data when it's released next month. Some residents are complaining that their rates will go up 17 - 20% in June. We'll see what the EIA reports. 

From The WSJ, opinion:

Despite flat electricity demand for the past two decades—and some of the lowest energy usage per capita among the 50 states—New Jersey residents pay some of the highest retail power prices in the country. As of April 2025, the Garden State ranked No. 12 in the nation, with prices more than 15% above the U.S. average. This gap has widened further in the wake of the recent decision by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to approve an additional 17% to 20% rate increase for most utility customers starting in June.

A decade ago, the outlook for New Jersey electricity prices was much brighter. The state was adding natural-gas generation capacity to take advantage of abundant, low-cost Marcellus Shale gas located next door in Pennsylvania. By 2016, New Jersey achieved energy independence by supplying all its power needs with in-state generation for the first time in its history, partially fueled by Pennsylvania gas.

Then the state threw it all away. Since electing Gov. Phil Murphy in November 2017, New Jersey has shut down all its coal plants, reduced its natural gas-generation capacity, and increased its reliance on intermittent wind and solar power. Trenton is on a quixotic quest to achieve 100% “clean” electricity production by 2035.

Under Mr. Murphy’s leadership, New Jersey has tilted at offshore windmills—none of which have been completed to date, mainly due to cost overruns, despite the state’s generous financial incentives. New Jersey has also subsidized the rollout of solar power (mostly nonutility scale) even though the state experiences only 94 days with less than 30% cloud cover in an average year. The state ranks seventh in the country for small-scale solar power generation, with rooftop and utility-pole solar panels now ubiquitous.

Such supply-side mismanagement has led to a 12% decrease in New Jersey’s electric-generating capacity since 2016. Over the same period, average residential power prices increased by almost a third even as consumption declined slightly. The shale revolution has led to a significant drop in U.S. natural-gas prices since the 2000s, but New Jersey electricity customers have seen no benefit in their monthly bills.

Much more at the link.

So, let's see electricity rates for New Jersey compared to the rest of New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Link here.

Late Afternoon Trading And The VIX Is Down -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48844INVESTING.


 Later, at the close:

EV Truck Industry In The US Is Dead -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48843TRUCKING.
Locator: 48843EVS.

I'm not at liberty to reveal the source, but the EV truck industry in the US is dead. One large Class 8 truck manufacturer, at one location, a year ago, before Trump, was producing as many as twelve Class 8 EV trucks DAILY. That same facility is now manufacturing as few as two such trucks every MONTH

The new game in town: autonomous. Autonomous trucking market doesn't necessarily mean over-the-road state highways and interstate highways, but could be used without much regulatory oversight in large mining operations, for example. 

AI / large data centers run on four "things":

  • natural gas;
  • cooling;
  • copper; and,
  • concrete.

Going forward, "we're" going to need a lot of Class 8 cement trucks.

Electricity for AI / large data centers need two things:

  • natural gas;
  • natural gas turbines.

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Specialty Copper Mining Class 8 Trucks

Mining operations, especially large-scale open-pit copper mines, utilize a variety of heavy-duty trucks, some of which fall into the Class 8 category, which designates vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) exceeding 33,000 pounds. These are often referred to as haul trucks or mining trucks. Here's how these specialty Class 8 trucks are crucial in copper mining:
  • Hauling Ore and Waste: The primary function of these trucks is to move massive quantities of copper ore from the mine pit to processing plants or stockpiles, and also to transport waste rock (overburden) to designated areas.
  • Capacity and Size: Haul trucks are designed to handle immense loads, with capacities reaching hundreds of tons. For example, the Caterpillar 797F can haul 400 short tons of ore. Some trucks are so large that their tires alone can be over 12 feet tall, and their blind spots can be the size of a football field.
  • Durability and Off-Road Capability: These trucks are built to withstand the harsh conditions of a mine site, including rough terrain, steep grades, and heavy loads. They are considered off-road vehicles designed specifically for these demanding environments.
  • Specialized Features: Beyond the basic hauling function, some of these Class 8 trucks in copper mining might have specialized features like:
  • Electric Drive Systems: Some manufacturers offer models with diesel-electric or fully electric powertrains for increased efficiency and reduced emissions, according to Copper.org.
  • Trolley-assist Systems: Some mines implement trolley-assist systems on ramps, allowing electric haul trucks to connect to overhead lines and operate more efficiently while reducing reliance on diesel fuel.
  • Safety Features: Given their size, these trucks incorporate advanced safety features such as object detection systems, extensive lighting, and emergency braking systems to enhance operational safety.
Types of haul trucks: haul trucks commonly fall into three main types:
  • Rear dump trucks: These are the most common type and offer versatility, good climbing ability, and ease of maneuverability.
  • Bottom dump trucks: These trucks are designed for faster dumping cycles and can potentially carry heavier payloads for the same engine power but are less maneuverable and suited for less steep grades.
  • Articulated dump trucks: Generally smaller in payload capacity compared to rear or bottom dump trucks, they excel in challenging terrain like wet or poor road conditions but have a shorter service life due to their lighter construction.

In essence, specialty trucks in the Class 8 category, particularly haul trucks, are the backbone of large-scale copper mining operations, enabling the efficient and safe transport of materials essential to the production process. 

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Mining

The above was written earlier today. Now, later the same evening, this article.

The Trump administration is proposing nearly $1 billion in funding to speed the development of U.S. critical minerals and materials, used in everything from electric vehicle batteries to semiconductors, the Energy Department said on Wednesday, August 13, 2025.
The department intends to offer funding to advance and scale up mining, processing and manufacturing technologies in the critical minerals and materials supply chains, sectors that have been dominated by China and other countries, the statement said.

iPhone 17 Just Weeks Away -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48842APPLE.

Link here

Link here.

The iPhone 17 Pro: $50 more than its predecessor, the iPhone 16 Pro.

BUT it will come with a minimum of 256 GB of storage -- wow! This doubles the base capacity compared to last year's model. 

Meanwhile, rumors are already swirling around the iPhone 18, link here.

Apple's A20 chip in the iPhone 18 will be packaged with TSMC's Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) technology, according to Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. This change has been rumored by multiple other sources previously.
More and more, "transistor count, no longer matters, as an important metric. See below the fold.

Link here, from June 22:


From ChatGPT:

WMCM is TSMC’s approach to doing this at the wafer level before the chips are fully cut apart, which allows:

  • Tighter integration – Shorter electrical paths between chips (lower latency, higher bandwidth).

  • Higher performance – Can mix and match the best chips for each function (logic, memory, I/O) in a single module.

  • Better thermals – More control over heat dissipation compared to traditional multi-chip setups.

  • Lower power use – Less energy wasted moving data between chips.

Think of it like this: instead of building multiple small buildings (chips) and connecting them with long streets (traces in a circuit board), you’re constructing them inside the same city block with underground tunnels — everything is faster and closer together.

Why it matters right now:

  • AI accelerators, data center processors, and flagship phone chips (like Apple’s or Nvidia’s) increasingly use multiple chiplets instead of giant monolithic dies, because it’s easier to manufacture and yields are higher.

  • WMCM is TSMC’s answer to competing approaches like Intel’s Foveros or AMD’s Infinity Fabric — but with their signature scale and foundry integration.

Comparing the market:

Headlines:

These are incredible advances, and note that Intel is again not mentioned.

*******************************
More And More, Transistor Counts No Longer Matter

Transister count:

  • September 21, 2025

If Accurate, It's Too Bad It Wasn't Released BEFORE The School Year Began -- A $599 MacBook Pro -- August 13, 2025

Locator: 48841APPLE.

Apple Silicon is tracked here.

So many story lines in this article: Apple could release a lower-priced MacBook this year.

  • starting price: between $599 and $699 in the US
  • powered by the A18 Pro chip
    • debuted in the iPhone 16 Pro models last year;
    • would be first Mac to ever use an A-series chip from an iPhone;
    • a 6-core CPU, a 6-core GPU, and a 16-core Neural Engine
  • but look at this -- this is how fast the M4 is:
    • the A18 Pro chip is about 40% slower than the M4 chip
    • but the A18 Pro chip performance about matches the M1
  • new Mac: 8BG of RAM
    • all current MacBook Air and MacBook Pro models start with at least 16GB of RAM
  • the chip lacks Thunderbolt support; would likely use regular USB-C ports (which, I believe, the EU demands)
    • the ports look the same but data transfer speeds would be limited to 10 Gb/s
  • position in the Apple laptop lineup
    • below the MacBook Air
      • slightly larger 13.6-inch display
      • an M4 chip
      • starting price of $999 but is frequently available at Amazon for as low as $799

Also here, the discounted laptop.

It almost appears this might be an entry-level MacBook Pro to compete with the Chrome, generally available for $300 or less.

For me, it's getting more and more difficult to see the difference(s) between the MacBook Pro and the MacBook Air, if one is not a gamer, or doesn't need multiple screens. 

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   

Hump Day -- Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Locator: 48840B.

WTI: $62.30. Trending toward $60. All things being equal, inflation should come down.

New wells:

  • Thursday, August 14, 2025: 27 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 505 for the year, 
    • 39521, conf, BR, State Dodge 3D TFH,
  • Wednesday, August 13, 2025: 26 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 504 for the year,
    • 40449, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Eagle 29 1,

RBN Energy: US refiners remain global leaders, but prospects vary widely by region.

The U.S. refining industry has undergone a number of changes in recent years and more turbulence looks likely as global economic and trade patterns shift and energy transition moves forward. For some refineries, this has led to closures due to weak profits, rising regulatory costs and declining demand for products, particularly gasoline. But other refineries have prospered — and even invested in expansions — while the U.S. industry as a whole has evolved into the most competitive system in the world. Overall, the prospects have been very regionally (and even facility) specific. As detailed in the most recent Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, this regional differentiation will continue and shift over the coming years. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what we expect for the U.S. refining industry — where closures will likely take place, where the industry might actually add capacity, and the reasons for those actions.