Notes From All Over -- Sunday Late Night Edition -- May 31, 2020

Parr Park, Grapevine, TX -- Parr Park Rocks!

I'll replace this with a better video later, but for now this will have to do.

Parr Park Rocks

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NASCAR

Incredible race. Brad Keselowski "steals" another one. But well deserved. Chase Elliott / Joey Logano tangle with three to go -- Brad saw it coming. Took advantage. Incredible race. But Jeff Gordon, up in the booth. Wow, he's good. He may be the best sports commentator out there right now. I'm not a Keselowski fan but I'm warming up to him after races like this. Bristol, Tennessee.

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Movie Night

Notorious, Alfred Hitchcock. Three times in 48 hours. The movie itself, then the movie with commentary, and then the movie again, this time with a second commentary. Yeah, it's that good. Tonight, Grand Budapest Hotel. Interesting back story.

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Grilling

Preparing the chicken for the grill. Video by Sophia. I normally don't use a "stand" for beer can chicken -- I prefer to set up the chicken without the stand but tonight just wanted to keep it simple. I had too many things to do.  

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Pending

Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves tumble 5% month over month; down almost 40% from a year ago. Enough "cash in the bank" to pay for 43 months of imports. Link here.

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Telstar

Telstar, The Tornados

Update Of MRO's Crow Flies High, Rock Woman, And Papa George In Antelope -- May 31, 2020

This well is off line, trending toward 600K:

• 19473, 1,060, MRO, Crow Flies High USA 31-4H, Antelope, Bakken; t5/11; cum 568K 9/19; off line as of 9/19; remains off line 3/20; see production here;

There are two wells on DRL status on that 3-well pad; both have flared some natural gas; one has produced a bit of crude oil:

• 36859, drl/drl, MRO, Rock Woman USA 41-4TFH, Antelope-Sanish; t--; cum --;
• 36860, drl/drl, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, Antelope-Sanish; t--; cum --;

This Petroshale Well Is Back On Line; Trending Toward 600K -- May 31, 2020

The well:

• 18579, 2,006, Petroshale/Oasis/SM, Jorgenson 1-30H, Bear Den, Bakken, t12/10; 120K by 6/11; cum 580K 3/20; 

The Jorgenson wells in Bear Den are tracked here. 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	2991	2894	1167	3659	3356	86
BAKKEN	2-2020	26	3136	3063	918	4635	4346	111
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	7	566	653	438	2030	1978	3
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	2453	2434	1114	7809	7472	127
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	2379	2336	768	8714	8398	99
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	2716	2832	728	10143	9887	39

 
Earlier production:

BAKKEN	6-2018	30	5002	5149	2479	10636	10336	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	5727	5531	2514	11151	10841	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	5639	5552	2964	8493	8036	157
BAKKEN	3-2018	17	2916	3026	1623	4305	4135	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	5504	5457	3032	7923	7643	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	6134	6181	3882	8686	8292	84
BAKKEN	12-2017	30	6463	6019	5039	6748	6111	337
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	29	0	29
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	134	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	20	1601	1695	381	2802	2490	12
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	2422	2515	702	4002	3653	49
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	2701	2740	789	4543	4200	33

The BR Merton / Jerome Wells Have Been Updated -- Monster Wells -- May 31, 2020

These wells are monster wells; they have been updated. Tracked here.

Notes From All Over -- Early Sunday Afternoon Edition -- May 31, 2020

NASCAR: 2:30 p.m. today -- Bristol Motor Speedway; Tennessee; short-track racing, 15-second lap. Keselowski in the pole position. FWIW. First short-track race in 2020.

Random Update Of Wuhan Flu Statistics -- May 31, 2020

As states start to open up, the number of cases are increasing, as expected, but one must also remember that increased testing is also occurring.

The other thing to note is the percentage of total cases (positive tests) vs total number of tests completed. In some of the states hardest hit, the percentage ranges from 15% to 21%. In the states less badly hit, the percentage of positive tests to total number of tests is only 10%.

With a positive rate of only 10% in most states, and a positive rate of around 20% in the harder hit states, it certainly suggests surveillance targeting is either being poorly done, or this virus is not very infectious / contagious.

For example, and of course, this is not accurate, but for illustrative purposes: if one tests 100 folks because they have been exposed and only 10% of those people turn out positive, that suggests the virus is not particularly infectious. We saw that, by the way, on the Diamond Princess. A very small percentage of folks actually tested positive on this closed vessel.

One has to assume tests are being done on certain folks for a reason: I assume the #1 reason for testing is a person is being evaluated for cough and fever by one's physician; the #2 reason for testing is history of exposure. So, if the folks most likely to test positive are coming back at 20% in the hard-hit states and around 10% in the less hard-hit states, it certainly suggests that this virus is not very infectious, and a lot of folks presumed to have Wuhan flu based on symptoms, in fact, do not test positive.

For all the criticism the governor of Michigan is getting, Michigan does not show up on the first screenshot below, ranked by number of new cases. Michigan does show up on the second list, ranked by number of new deaths, suggesting the Michigan governor is correct in her decision to be overly cautious.

Michigan:

• total tests: 538,812
• number of positive tests: 56,884
• percent of positive test / total tests: 10.6%

Already the CDC has confirmed a remarkably low rate of deaths due to Wuhan flu, link here. 
It now appears that the virus is not particularly infectious based on percent of positive tests vs number of tests performed.

So, now we have:

• a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
• a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
• a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
• a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;

Unintended consequences:

• powder kegs across the nation with lock down; surging unemployment; no hope;
• routine vaccination of infants and children plummeting; folks afraid to keep well baby appointments or afraid of vaccinations themselves (previously reported)

Ranked by number of new cases. Note that number of new cases are surging in California. New York is looking good (#4 on the list) only because California, Illinois, and Texas are now reporting a surge in cases, as more testing becomes available and the states "re-open." The most interesting state, of course, to watch will be Minnesota two to three weeks from now when their two largest cities, Minneapolis and St Paul lost complete control of the situation.

Ranked by number of new deaths. Based on "new case data" in the spreadsheet above, states like California, Illinois, and Texas should move higher in the next two or three weeks.

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Geologic Time

Some of this was previously posted. It originated with an essay in Power Line some months ago. See this link.

A huge part of evolution is knowing all the ages, epochs, periods, eras, eons, and supereons.

We're currently in the Holocene epoch, which has just begun, relatively speaking.

To date there have been three named ages of the Holocene epoch, most recent to oldest: Meghalayan; Northgrippian; and, Greenlandian, although it's my understanding these are "placeholders" for now and yet to be etched in stone.

By the way, "holocene" from the Greek: holo: whole, all; kainos: new. Looking at kainos it appears holocene should be pronounced with a hard "c," or holokene. "C" is a tough letter when it comes to pronunciation: a hard "c"; a soft "c"; and then there's the "j" sound for "c" in such words as Incirlik.

Now, some say we have entered the fourth age. This is quite incredible. This might be one of the longest single blog posts (at the link below) I have ever seen. It is incredible. I hope it never disappears behind a paywall or lost entirely some other way. Link here.

It's a keeper.

The fourth age of the Holocene epoch, the Age of Shibboliths.

Shibbolithic /ʃɪbəlˈiθik/ n.
: the current geological age, regarded as the first of the Anthropocene epoch and distinguished by the hegemony of unconvincing impostors in the scholarly and scientific academies.

St Greta of Thurnberg is probably the best example.

Source: ‘Shibbolithic.’ Merriam-Webster.com. Merriam-Webster, n.d. Web. 1 Apr. 2020.

My reading phase: re-reading Keld Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse, The Liberation of the Western Mind, From Odysseus to Socrates, c. 2007.  Previous posts:

• The Wooden Horse, Keld Zeruneith -- Early Notes -- Re-Posting, May 31, 2020;
• development of the tragedy: The Wooden Horse, Keld Zeruneith -- second note; December 21, 2018;
• random note on the Iliad and the Odyssey, July 21, 2013;
• mythology and Romanticism, the minor poets, May 21, 2010;
• mythology and the Romantic poets, May 17, 2010;
• summer reading: part 1, May 6, 2010;
• the epithets of Zeus, May 2, 2010; 
• development of the tragedy: The Wooden Horse, Keld Zeruneith -- first note, April 25, 2010 (repeated above)
• Greek tragedy and western philosophy, April 23, 2010; 
• current reading, March 28, 2010;

In addition, I have three journals filled with notes on this book but too much material to transcribe.

WPX Lion Wells In Mandaree Oil Field Updated -- May 31, 2020

The WPX Lion wells in Mandaree oil field have been updated at this post. These were drilled a year ago and are monster wells.

Almost 300K Crude Oil In Less Than Nine Months -- May 31, 2020

The well:

• 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Three Forks, 33 stages; 8.3 million lbs; Mandaree, t7/19; cum 284K 3/20;

Full production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	23546	23370	12178	45739	43059	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	24854	24896	14728	43104	40295	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	30273	30427	16998	36398	32476	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	53376	53290	23038	61756	51952	4093
BAKKEN	11-2019	29	49730	49537	20417	57538	44511	7221
BAKKEN	10-2019	6	4647	4734	2737	5378	3813	902
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	35718	35719	26509	38825	34629	38
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	40069	40139	32432	44437	39774	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	30	21374	21206	17105	23234	12673	8274

From the file report:

• 100% of the lateral was drilled within the Three Forks formation; 9,897.39 feet (0.39 feet = 4.68 inches)
• TD, vertical section: 10,948.73 feet
• Three Forks encountered at true vertical depth of 11,012'
• first bench Target B, unit 6 facies Y of the Three Forks formation

Example Of What The Bakken Will Look Like Going Forward -- May 31, 2020

Bakken wells will produce for 35 years. During that time they will be affected by neighboring wells; workovers; mini-re-fracks; major re-frack; etc.

This is an example of a very mediocre well drilled back in 2011. Since then the production has declined, then increased, then decline, then increased. See full production at this post.

The well:

• 20517, 658, WPX, Joseph Eagle 2-19H, Mandaree, t10/11; cum 305K 3/20; see full production at this post;

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2020

The wells:

• 36238, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, 
• 35188, conf, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, Siverston,
• 31791, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, Charlson,
• 36468, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
• 36237, conf, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, Big Bend,
• 36473, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend,
• 36454, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1A, Sand Creek,
• 36362, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, 
• 35748, conf, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	14524	15689
2-2020	18324	7810
1-2020	11920	5504
12-2019	9805	1222

• 31790, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, Charlson,
• 36455, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1B, Clear Creek,
• 36360, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH, Sand Creek,
• 36470, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
• 36457, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1D, Clear Creek,
• 36456, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1C, Clear Creek,
• 36354, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH, Sand Creek,
• 36240, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH, Big Bend,
• 35189, conf, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H, Siverston,
• 36754, conf, Kraken Candace 15-22 1TFH, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	30416	13105
2-2020	2784	2278
1-2020	4048	3172
12-2019	33263	15760

• 36458, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1E, Clear Creek,
• 35190, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6AXD, Siverston,
• 36757, conf, Kraken Arrow A 15-22 4TFH, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	43171	16508
2-2020	786	794
12-2019	20687	5473

• 36756, conf, Kraken Ethan 15-22 3TFH, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	31461	10765
12-2019	15362	4135

• 36755, conf, Kraken, Penny 15-22 2TFH, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	35018	14340
2-2020	2225	1849
1-2020	4883	3572
12-2019	27550	14477

• 36469, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, Big Bend,
• 36130, conf, Whiting, Harvey TTT 41-4HU, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	27499	22093
2-2020	29677	19188
1-2020	30998	6718
12-2019	21148	0

• 35191, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6E, Siverston,
• 37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree,
• 36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eigthmile,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	17389	0
2-2020	15701	0
1-2020	26216	0
12-2019	30245	0
11-2019	19	0

• 35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,
• 33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake,
• 36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
• 33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2020

Monday, June 8, 2020: 31 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 403 for the year:
36238, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, 
35188, conf, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, 
31791, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, 

Sunday, June 7, 2020: 28 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 400 for the year:
36468, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, 
36237, conf, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, 

Saturday, June 6, 2020: 26 for the month; 171 for the quarter, 398 for the year:
36473, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH,
36454, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1A, 
36362, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, 
35748, conf, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH,  
31790, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, 

Friday, June 5, 2020: 21 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 393 for the year:
36455, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1B, 
36360, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH, 

Thursday, June 4, 2020: 19 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 391 for the year:
36470, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, 
36457, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1D, 
36456, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1C, 
36354, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH, 
36240, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH,
35189, conf, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H, 

Wednesday, June 3, 2020: 13 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 385 for the year:
36754, conf, Kraken Candace 15-22 1TFH, 
36458, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1E, 
35190, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6AXD, 

Tuesday, June 2, 2020: 10 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 382 for the year:
36757, conf, Kraken Arrow A 15-22 4TFH, 
36756, conf, Kraken Ethan 15-22 3TFH, 
36755, conf, Kraken, Penny 15-22 2TFH, 
36469, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, 
36130, conf, Whiting, Harvey TTT 41-4HU, 
35191, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6E, 

Monday, June 1, 2020: 4 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 376 for the year:
37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, 
36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H,
35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, 
33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W,

Sunday, May 31, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
None. There was no November 31.

Saturday, May 30, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake,