Sunday, October 12, 2025

Anticipation -- Sunday, Late Night -- October 12, 2025

Locator: 49358INVESTING.

"Holiday of some sort" tomorrow -- a holiday that has become so water-downed I've long forgotten its name, and who, when, why, and where it's celebrated. I guess it used to be called "Columbus Day," maybe it still is and now it has a name that simply rolls off one's tongue, as they say -- Indigenous something day. It has become so water-downed it's selectively celebrated. Mostly by school children, I guess.

Anyway, the important thing, US equity markets are open tomorrow. Bond markets are closed. The US government is still shut down.

By the way, we will go through this whole process again at the end of November -- next month. If you don't believe me, fact-check me on ChatGPT. The tea leaves suggest we will be going through this process every 30 - 60 days through the mid-terms next year. Remember, there are twelve appropriations bills to pass. 

And it looks like there's a new wrinkle. When the government shuts down there's only a few high-ticket, high-visible "agencies" that are affected, like paying air traffic controllers and seamen, soldiers, and airmen. And now it looks like the president has found a military slush fund that can be used to pay the men and women in the US military.  

Air traffic controllers are primarily funded through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which receives money through two primary sources: the Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF) and the annual Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies (THUD) appropriations bill. The THUD bill provides the congressional authority to spend money from both the AATF and the Treasury's General Fund. 

It looks like it may be time to separate the AATF from THUD, just as military pensions, social security, and Medicare are separated from the other 12 appropriations bills at least to the extent to keep those checks flowing. 

Anyway, meaningless rambling.

What's on tap tomorrow?


 

Silver! A "Hunt Brothers Redux"? October 12, 2025

Locator: 49357SILVER.

Link here. Only the second time in history. That's saying quite a lot. Will fact-check with ChatGPT.


ChatGPT doesn't completely agree but ChatGPT is not "sensing" the point that Giovanni Staunovo is trying ot make. Bottom line: Giovani Staunova is on firm ground. 

ChatGPT: The Everything App -- The Verge -- Chart Of The Day -- October 12, 2025

Locator: 49356LIKE_NEVER_BEFORE.

Updates

Later, 11;05 p.m.: it will be interesting to see how Meta (Facebook) incorporates a chatbot into its architecture and whether Meta uses ChatGPT or something else. It won't work the other way around: ChatGPT won't incorporate Meta / Facebook. 

 Later, 10:58 p.m.: "the everything app" -- ChatGPT is now a permanent app at the bottom of my desktop, along with Finder, Safari, Firefox, Word, Chrome, Notes, Maps, FaceTime,.....ChatGPT, Numbers. ChatGPT has become my "everything app." My top "apps": Firefox, blogger, ChatGPT. The bottom of my desktop:

Later, 10:51 p.m. CT: this is the relationship among ChatGPT, Oracle, SoftBank, Microsoft, and Stargate: link here. This is not trivial. This is very, very helpful for investors in this arena. 

Later, 10:31 p.m. CT: this is truly incredible. I spent quite a bit of time on this story earlier today after reading the aritcle in The Verge -- ChatGPT becoming the "everything app." Now, CNBC is covering the story. link here

Original Post 

Chart of the day.  

Tag: AI LDC ChatGPT chatbot.  

I wonder if folks on CNBC are paying attention.

ChatGPT is trending toward 90% market share in some markets. And the rate of growth is almost incomprehensible. It would surprise me if you are not using ChatGPT.

Link here

It's impossible to compare apples (Ford Model T) with oranges (ChatGPT) but  ChatGPT went from 50 million users one year after lease to nearly 800,000 users three years after release.

Ford's Model T: sales went from maybe 50,000 in the first year after release to maybe 700,000 seven years later:


But a closer comparison, an apples-to-apples comparison, ChatGPT vs the internet is absolutely astonishing. ChatGPT is only one of many chatbots and chatbots are only a minor sector on the internet, and yet it took ten years for the internet to record the number of users ChatGPT has recorded in three years. Absolutely astonishing.

I pretty much use ChatGPT exclusively. 

I have been re-reading Andrew Hodges' 1983 biography of Alan Turing who predicted this back in the 1920s / 1930s.

I've been having discussions with ChatGPT regarding chatbots.  

ChatGPT's market dominance: YouTube link here.

ChatGPT holds a commanding lead in chatbot market share, with recent reports placing its share between 60% and 90% of the AI chatbot market. 

The remaining market is shared among competitors, with Perplexity, Microsoft Copilot, and Google Gemini holding the next largest shares, though their relative positions can vary depending on the analysis.

Microsoft's Windows 10 is "obsoleted" as of October 14, 2025 -- this next week. Apple will be the natural beneficiary.

Chatbot and LDC chokepoints:

  • right now: access to blades;
  • the next twelve months: putting blades on-line; 
    • Nvidia, AMD, copper, fiberoptics
  • next few years with the large data center build-out: cooling;
  • five to seven years: access to affordable electricity.

Comparing the chatbot revolution to the Bakken revolution is striking

In the early days of the Bakken revoluion, time was way more important than money. Operators were willing to pay whatever it took to get "the acres" the fastest. Then, once they got the acres, the operators said money was more important than time. Same thing is happening with in the chatbot / LDC revolution. Get the best sites as fast as possible; get the blades as fast as possible, get contracts for energy as fast as possible. Don't worry about the money. Time is money. 

In fact, I wonder if this might be the sine qua non of a revolution: time. Time and timing are most important. Time: how fast one does it. Timing: first out of the gate is critical. 

The discussion continues here.

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- October 12, 2025

Locator: 49355WELLS.

The wells:

  • 41378, conf, Petro-hunt, Hoiby 158-94-5A-17-1HS, Tioga, npd,
  • 41072, conf, Zavanna, Olympia 36-25 4TFH, Epping, 

    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    8-20252806733076
    7-20253645536920
    6-20251256812604
  • 41490, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 2436-2BHR, Daneville, npd, 
  • 41379, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hoiby 158-94-4B-3-2H, Powers Lake, npd, 
  • 41365, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 2402-1BH, Daneville, npd, 
  • 41284, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 2436-3BH, Daneville, npd, 
  • 41080, conf, Oasis, Sapphire 5000 21-31 2BX, Arnegard, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20252385333101
7-20252659325123
6-20252188814412
5-20252708228227
4-202585948838
  • 41071, conf, Zavanna, Olympia 36-25 3H, Epping, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20253420035064
7-20252894629400
6-20252853326735
5-202540713854
  • 41611, conf, Kraken, Roundtop 5698-36 1H, Wheelock, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20253823229166
7-20254632156006
  • 41321, conf, Grayson Mill, Falcon 25-27F 4HR, Sixmile, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20252458222281
7-20252492821450
6-20251378910623
5-20251944814845
4-20252034011937
  • 40885, conf, Zavanna, Olympia 36-25 2TFH, Epping, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20251973922326
7-20252406323744
6-20252859527022
5-202546614485
  • 40881, conf, Oasis, Bitterroot 5000 21-30 5B, Arnegard, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20252402131275
7-20252657830610
6-20253092032252
5-20252785331698
4-202577718101

41612, conf, Kraken, Roundtop 5698-36 2H, Wheelock, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20253674027317
7-20254397651359
  • 40399, conf, Hess, EN-Starla-157-93-0904H-4, Sorkness, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20251795324617
7-20251770721911
6-20251270114419
5-20251168014762
4-20251591113936
  • 41070, conf, Zavanna, Olympia 36-24 1H XW, Epping, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20254117344823
7-20254079936264
6-20253816833030
5-202524302657
  • 38109, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, LFM2 19-31 161-93 BTF, Leaf Mountain, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20257011283
  • 41605, conf, CLR, Klepp 2-1H, West Capa, npd, 
  • 38111, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, LFM2 18-06 161-93 BMB, Leaf Mountain, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20250326
  • 41606, conf, CLR, Klepp 3-1H, West Capa, npd, 
  • 41395, conf, CLR, Vachal FIU 12-27HSL, Alkali Creek, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20251328732711
7-20251836443842
6-20251058117989
  • 41642, conf, CLR, Klepp 4-12H, West Capa, npd, 
  • 40827, conf, Grayson Mill, Falcon 25-27F 3H, Sixmile, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20252430621800
7-20252891722558
6-20253177426463
5-20251887413680
4-20252902716321
  • 41643, conf, CLR, Klepp 512H, West Capa, npd, 
  • 41112, conf, Hess, BL-Ray-155-95-0503H-5, Beaver Lodge, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20251352219119
7-20251942521603
6-20252350325842
5-20252717439661
4-20252367639541
  • 41111, conf, Hess, BL-Ray-155-95-0503H-4, Beaver Lodge, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20251851429815
7-20252476032209
6-20252297026034
5-20251091019027
4-20252310524764
  • 40982, conf, Hess, EN-Starla-157-93-0904H-6, Sorkness, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20251728031681
7-20252046528967
6-20251853918411
5-20251722620457
4-20252555818358
  • 40788, conf, Oasis, Bitterroot 5000 21-30 4B, Arnegard, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20252377529199
7-20252246325838
6-20251664619179
5-20252220025987
4-20251734218330