Monday, February 4, 2019

Four Counties In Western North Dakota Will Outproduce Venezuela -- Wood Mac -- February 4, 2019

Link here.

Wood Mac.

But Will It Offer Free Wi-Fi And All-Gender Bathrooms? February 4, 2019

The Ad Page

Ranked #2 by some, I think this was the #1 Super Bowl LIII ad although the Harrison Ford / Alexa / dog food ad was certainly a close #2.

The Four Words Most Feared By A Democratic Governor: Dramatic Drop In Tax Revenue -- February 4, 2019


February 6, 2019: someone agrees with me. Stuart Varney on Fox Business -- the tax exodus has just begun; it will become a flood. 
It’s official.
The governor of New York confirms it. The tax exodus has begun.
We've been expecting this.
In New York, a $2.3 billion shortfall in state revenues. Gov. Cuomo blames the new tax law. You can only deduct $10,000 worth of state and local taxes. In high-tax states, that’s a pittance.
Result: Even middle-class people end up paying more tax, and the one-percenters are getting socked. Some of them are moving, and taking their money with them. 
February 5, 2019: Governor Cuomo changed his story overnight. Am I missing something here? No one is talking about this: Governor Cuomo's earlier complaint was the the Federal "SALT" tax deduction caused the problem. Helloooo! The SALT tax deduction / law was changed in 2018. Folks have not yet filed their 2018 returns. Unless the NY state revenue number that Governor Cuomo is talking about is an estimate he misses the bigger story. I don't know if his 2018 deficit is an estimate or if based on actual figures. Let's assume his comments were based on actual figures If so, those revenue receipts were made in calendar year 2017, not 2018. Again, payments for CY2018 are still coming in. Of course, the excessively rich were paying quarterly estimates. But the bottom line is this: rich New Yorkers were moving out of state well before 2018 and the change in the Federal "SALT" deduction. This did not happen overnight. Rich New Yorkers started their migration some years ago, probably during the Obama administration when the expectation was that Hillary would be elected president. [The New Yorkers knew Hillary much better than the rest of the country.]

So, Cuomo realizes that it was NOT the Federal SALT tax that caused the CURRENT problem. That's why he is changing his story. He does not want to go down that road, now, to increase taxes on the rich because he knows wealthy New Yorkers were leaving even before the change in the Federal tax law.

That was the first of two knock-out punches. Here's the second one.

And on this one, Governor Cuomo is correct. The Federal tax law regarding SALT goes into effect this past year, 2018, and the state will start to see the effects of that law this year, in 2019.

Cuomo sees the past: wealthy New Yorkers leaving the state because NY taxes too high.

Cuomo sees the future: it will get worse. Wealthy New Yorkers now affected by
  • high NY taxes
  • a NY federal representative that wants to increase taxes on the rich [Rep Occasional-Cortex (D)]
  • the state legislature will want to increase taxes on the wealthy before they will make spending cuts
  • the Federal "SALT" law
Original Post 

The Big Stories.

The Obama years.

The Doomsday Chronicles.

US States.

From Newsday:

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Monday announced a dramatic drop in state income tax revenue of $2.8 billion, which he says will prompt him to revise his 2019-20 budget and reconsider spending on schools, health care and repairs to roads and bridges.
Cuomo, a Democrat, blamed the shortfall on a federal tax plan backed by Republican President Donald Trump. Cuomo said the law's cap on deductions for state and local taxes at $10,000 was to blame and suggested it is, anecdotally, triggering high-earners to leave New York. 
“At this point there is no doubt that the budget we put forward is not supported by the revenues,” Cuomo said at a State Capitol news conference. “It’s as serious as a heart attack.”
Cuomo said he’s not certain what areas might need to be cut, but said the biggest spending areas now are education, health care, infrastructure and another phase-in of a previously approved middle-class tax cut.
North Dakota Legacy Fund: growing by at least $50 million / month.

Meanwhile, Governor Cuomo bans fracking in upstate New York.

This is not rocket science. 

Who Saw This Coming? -- February 4, 2019

Patrick Kennedy: our grandchildren will never see snow. Wow, this gets tedious.

From KTLA:

Another MRO Re-Frack -- February 4, 2019; A New MRO Well Producing At 104K Bbls/Month?

Record IPs are tracked at this post.

Another MRO re-frack:
  • 19838, 1,069, MRO, Debbie Baklenko USA 12-26H, Antelope-Sanish, t6/11; cum 245K 12/18;
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

And typical of MRO re-fracks, a very small amount of proppant was used: 3.2 million gallons of water; 77% water by mass --

The graphic:

The wells: pending
  • 33636, 4,405, MRO, Irish USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum --
  • 33637 4,181, MRO, Snowman USA 41-25H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 27K over 8 days, extrapolates to 103,691 bbls/month;
  • 33638, 4,402, MRO, Four Dances USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 34K over 14 days, extraplates to 72,707 bbls/month

Eleven New Permits -- February 4, 2019

Active rigs: pending

Active Rigs63584044140

Eleven new permits:
  • Operators: Rimrock Oil & Gas (8); Equinor (3)
  • Fields: South Fork (Dunn); Last Chance (Williams)
  • Comments: Rimrock has permits for an 8-well pad in 10-148-93; Equinor has permits for a 3-well Marcia pad in 3-153-100 (see this post for a graphic of the area)
One permit canceled:
  • Equinor: a Jarold permit in Williams County.
Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31801, 1,703, CLR, Jensen 5-8H1, Chimney Butte, t12/18; cum 47K over 20 days; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 33638, 4,402, MRO, Four Dances USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 35K 12/18; (see this post)
  • 33636, 4.405, MRO, Irish USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum --; (see this post)
  • 33637, 4,181, MRO, Snowman USA 41-25H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 28K 12/18; (see this post)
  • 32532, 586, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-5H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 3K over 6 days;
  • 32530, 308, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4A-9-7H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 3K over 2 days;

Global Warming Hits SoCal: Gas Company Asks Customers To Curb Use Of Natural Gas -- Apparenlty Wind, Solar Not Dispatchable -- February 4, 2019

Another self-inflicted wound on the Southern Californians.

Link to SeekingAlpha.
  • Overnight temperatures in Los Angeles are expected to drop as low as 39 degrees F during Monday-Wednesday, ~10 degrees below normal at this time of year, before rising to near normal levels later in the week.
  • Gas supplies have been tight in Southern California this winter because of limitations on several SoCalGas pipelines and reduced availability of the Aliso Canyon storage field following a massive leak three years ago.

Update On An Incredible Re-Fracked CLR Rattlesnake Point Well -- February 4, 2019

Note: this was done quickly. There will be factual and typographical errors. It has not been proofread. I was interrupted by family commitments.

I have purposely not been updating the CLR wells in Rattlesnake Point because:
a) I have updated them often; and,
b) the folks on Wall Street will tell me I'm cherry-picking my wells to post.
But I have no choice but to post this one.

I don't have time to write my own note, and I couldn't write it any better, so here is the note I received from the reader who alerted me to this well:
If you are impressed with the Bridger well what do you think about Mountain Gap 31-10H #17100?

Mountain Gap well is a Continental re-frac that runs parallel to and about a mile west of the Bridger well.

As memory serves the initial frac on both were similar and the initial production for the several years prior to the re-frac was similar. Based on permit numbers it looks like they were permitted about the same time.

The difference? Mountain Gap was re-fracked after CLR had some history from the re-frac of Bridger. So is the difference in results based on knowledge or geology?
My notes follow:

The CLR Mountain Gap wells are tracked here, but have not been updated recently.

Okay, so before you look at the production profile of this well, note a couple of things:
  • the lousy 24-hour IP of 240, following the original open hole frack back in 2008
  • look at the production in 6/18 (June, 2018)
  • this is a 50K-well: tagged
  • compare that production with production one year earlier, 6/17 (June, 2017)
  • from the well file:
    • the plan was to extend the existing lateral by 677' to a TVD of 11,246' and a MD of 21,247'
    • introduction: COP originally drilled the Mountain Gap 31-10H .... within the Rocket prospect...the well was drilled to completion from its start on April 4, 2008, and completed on May 3, 2008. 
    • CLR acquired the well from COP and, with changing laws, was able to secure permission to drill more lateral footage in order to increase productivity of the well.
    • This report primarily concerns re-entry drilling information only, but an entirely different operator. Where available, salient points from the original drilling events have been included. [The geologist then goes into great detail about how much more they learned during the re-drill -- between the first well and the re-drill.] [It appears the geologist wanted to drill a bit longer but "due to hard-line TD restrictions, we were unable to proceed far enough to ....]
    • background gases were generally between 2600 - 3200 units over the short course of the well, with a 10,000-unit peak circulated up as reaming began
    • all three samples contained significant levels of frack sand (note how the geologist spells "frack"], though the TD sample indicated a sharp drop in the level of frack sand included. As this well was fracked in open-hole fashion by the initial operator, this is neither unexpected nor alarming
    • [the geologist believed] that we finished at least nine feet under the Upper Bakken, with the bit likely finishing in the final peak above zone
    • [by the way, some of the best writing by geologists I have seen in many, many reports that I have read -- two geologists signed off on this report, September 23, 2017]
    • the original well was drilled back in 2008; that wellbore was 8,617' total lateral: 6,364' (74%) in the target zone; 2,253' (26%) was above the target zone
    • open hole frack with 1 million lbs of sand;
    • data for the re-frack was not at the NDIC file, but according to FracFocus: 10 million gallons of water; 85% water by mass; which is a typical frack completion in 2018
So, with all that, here is the production profile (I recommend that for folks that are over the age of 56 and disciples of Art Berman -- they should be sitting down). Recent production below (full production profile at this post):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Remember, the reader who sent me this, asked me this question:
So is the difference in results based on knowledge or geology?
Here is my reply:
To answer your question, I think it's a bit of both.

I don't have the knowledge or resources to do a statistical review, but it's my impression that some fields (some locations) in the Bakken are much better for re-fracks. It may have to do with natural fracks or the geologists may have better knowledge of certain areas, for example, North Dakota's micro-seismic array may be better in some areas than others.

In addition, there is no question that, geologists and roughnecks have learned a lot over the years. The geologists have learned a lot about the geology but the roughnecks need to keep the wellbore in the  hole and now screw things up by dropping tools down the hole, etc. The roughnecks in the Bakken, I would bet, are among the best in the world. Scratch that. The best in the world.
Note: the first well, 76% of the time within the zone. I'm sure Harold Hamm's expectation is 95%+ time within the zone. I did not see that data for the second well; it's probably there if one has time to read the graphs.

But this is an incredible well.

Oasis Crane Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- February 4, 2019

This page will not be updated.

The Oasis Crane Federal wells in Willow Creek are tracked here.

Something Going On With CLR's Phenomenal Hawkinson Wells In Oakdale Oil Field? One Hawkinson Well Coming Up On 2 Million BOE -- Drilled Eight Years Ago -- February 4, 2019

This page will not be updated.

The Oakdale oil field and Hawkinson permit are tracked here.

These are spectacular wells.

Many were taken off line as of 6/18; another group were taken off line as of 10/18; and, yet another group was taken off line as of 11/18.

Two new wells on DRL status are now on the 18858-18861 pad:
  • 35272,
  • 35273,
Two wells of interest on this pad. Two wells with huge jump in production; one was re-fracked; the other was not.
  • 20208, IA/960, CRL, Hawkinson 2-27H, Oakdale, Bakken; t9/11; cum 452K 12/18; off line as of 6/18;
  • ******20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, t9/11; cum 1.629573 million bbls/112/18; FracFocus/NDIC: no record of refrack; huge jump 9/18;
  • 20211, AB/263, CLR, Hawkinson 3-27H, Oakdale, Bakken; t9/11; cum 385K 10/17; 
  • **** 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, Bakken; t9/11; 308K 12/18; re-fracked 9/17;
Full production profile for #20210 can be found here.

Meanwhile, the production profile for #20212 after the re-frack can be found here.

Back to #20210:
  • crude oil: 1,629,573 bbls
  • natural gas: 1,688,509 MCF = 281,371 boe
  • total: 1,910,944 boe; or 89,000 boe short of 2 million boe, drilled less than eight years ago; this well will continue to produce for 35 years

CLR's Uhlman Federal / Pittsburgh Wells In Banks Oil Field Have Been Updated -- February 4, 2019

CLR's Uhlman Federal / Pittsburgh wells have been updated.

A Rose By Any Other Name Is Still A Rose -- Tunnel? This Is A Pipeline -- February 4, 2019

"Political correctness" ruined the Super Bowl LIII ads; now political correctness over in Norway.

Next to "ranking" Norwegian/Scandinavian names, this might be the best story of the day. Sent to me by a reader. I would have definitely missed it. I don't follow:
  • fjiord stories
  • floating tunnel stories
  • ABC News

With that said, here's the link.
Highway E39 in Norway is one of the most beautiful drives in the world, hugging the country's rugged west coast from Kristiansand to Trondheim.
It is 684 miles of unending scenery, including rivers and lakes, waterfalls and mountains and numerous fjords. 
But if you look carefully at a road map, E39 is something of a dotted line. Each of the breaks occurs at seven fjords -- where drivers must put their cars on a ferry to get across.
This stop-and-start, sea-and-land journey takes 21 hours.
But the government of Norway has a plan.
"Ferry-free E39" would cut the driving time almost in half with a series of bridges and tunnels across the fjords.
Video at the link.

I'm waiting for Elon Musk to weigh in on this one.

As long as I've rambled this long, some personal notes: my grandfather came from Trondheim.

From another site:

"Paul" is/was my paternal grandfather. Born in Inderøy Municipality, he always called it "Trondheim." He homesteaded near Newell, SD, that "dry, flat, empty northwestern corn of South Dakota.

The Physics Page 

Quick! Without looking, who coined the term, "black hole"? I was sure I knew. I was wrong.

From Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman, James Gleick, c. 1992, page 94:
Compared to the hydrogen atom, the stark kernel with which [Niels] Bohr had begun his quantum revolution, the uranium atom was a monster, the heaviest atom in nature, bulked out with 92 protons and 140-odd neutrons, so scarce in the cosmos that hydrogen atoms outnumber [uranium] by seventeen trillion to one, and unstable, given to decaying at quantum mechanically unpredictable moments down a chain of lighter elements or -- this was the extraordinary news that kept Bohr at his portable blackboard all though the North Atlantic voyage [from Copenhagen to Princeton] -- splitting, when slugged by a neutron, into odd pairs of smaller atoms, barium and krypton or tellurium and zirconium, plus a bonus of new neutrons and free energy.
Krypton. Who knew?

From wiki: Superman is a fictional superhero created by writer Jerry Siegel and artist Joe Shuster. He first appeared in Action Comics #1, a comic book published on April 18, 1938.

Oasis To Report Huge Well In Early May -- February 4, 2019


May 16 2019: another big Aagvik well was reported today --
  • 34239, 605, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 9B, 50 stages; 6 million lbs; Banks, t12/18; cum 207K 10/19;  note the small amount of proppant for a middle Bakken well; that's the amount of proppant one would expect for a Three Forks well;
#34239 is another huge Aagvik well --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

May 14, 2019: more Aagvik wells reporting -
  • 34238, 640, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 8T, Banks, t12/18; cum 141K 10/19;
  • 34237, 576, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 7B, Banks, t12/18; cum 197K 10/19;
May 5, 2019: Aagvik wells coming off the confidential list this week.

March 9, 2019: see this post for update.

Original Post

I'm going to have to start a page ranking "best" Norwegian names. We might have to start with Aagvik but Kjorstad would be a close second. The best name, of course might be a surname with either of these letters:
  • å
  • ø 
But I digress.

Huge thanks to the reader who alerted me to this well:
  • 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 BX, Banks, t11/18; cum 296K 10/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Note: this is a 50K_well (tagged). The reader also notes that this is "section line well" -- the reader suggests that Oasis often uses a bit more proppants on such wells. 

According to the NDIC, this well will come off the confidential list on May 5, 2019.

The Banks oil field is tracked here

The graphic:

Off-line: #17986. I'll bet a six-pack of tuna (for the Kat) and/or a six-pack of Coke (for Steve) and/or a new English dictionary (for one reader in New Mexico) that this well will show a huge bump in production once it comes off line. [It did.]

The wells in the graphic:
  • 17986, 501, Oasis, Aagvik 1-35H, Banks, t12/09; cum 232K 10/19; came off line 7/18; back on line as of 1/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34038, dry, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 4T,
  • 34811, 685, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 15T, t11/18; cum 158K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34036, 543, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 2TX, 50 stages, 4 million lbs; Banks, t11/18; cum 139K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35BX, t11/18; cum 296K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34039, 810, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, t12/18; cum 206K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34040, 613, Oasis, Aagik 5298 41-35 6T, Banks, t11/18; cum 155K 10/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34039, see above, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 5B, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  •  34037, see above, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 3BX, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Norway's Problems -- Won't Amount To A Hill Of Beans -- February 4, 2019

Let's re-write that headline: Norway to see biggest year-on-year increase in production output since the 1980s.

Norway: it's a non-story but Bloomberg is milking it for what it's worth. Link here.
Norway has built a reputation as one of the calmest and most predictable corners of the global oil industry, but lately it’s been full of surprises.
During the worst downturn in a generation, from 2014 to 2016, companies would regularly exceed official forecasts as oil production rose in defiance of falling prices. More recently, with crude surging back to multiyear highs, they’ve run into trouble.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate now expects output to fall to a 31-year low in 2019, with production expected to be almost 60 million barrels short of its previous forecast for this year and in 2018. That’s 80,000 barrels a day less than expected.
Bloomberg then looks at "what happened?"
  • maintenance
  • glitches, delays
  • hubris and tiny fields
And then this, but you have to read to the end of the article:
To be sure, the abrupt slump in Norway’s oil production is temporary. The Nordic country will enjoy a spectacular bump in oil production in 2020 thanks to Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup field, which is scheduled to start production in November this year.
With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.
This is one of those stories where the millennial thought she saw a good story but then had to admit:
With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.
I was mislead also some months ago when I fell for the "31-year" headline.

The Art Page 


Sophia drew a cartoon a few weeks ago to "record" her two days in ski school and her one day of skiing with her Dad at Angel Fire, east of Taos, New Mexico, this past Christmas.

It should be noted that her legs/skis are straight downhill; parallel; and, proportionate to her body size; compare with her dad.

I found the drawing among some discarded paper when we got home. I do not know who annotated the drawing; it was not me; that's not my handwriting and it's not Grammy's. It looks like it might have been Olivia's printing.

Morning Note: February 4, 2019

The wall: tea leaves suggest negotiators have found a solution. 

OPEC: oil princes are fighting for survival. Good luck. 

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: data posted here.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs64584044140

RBN Energy: part 3, structural shifts propel US gas demand. Even more so after the polar vortex. Archived.
Lower-48 natural gas demand surged in 2018, managing to offset ballooning production volumes and putting the gas market on the razor’s edge going into this winter.
Demand growth occurred across all domestic sectors as well as export markets, but was led by increased demand from power generators.
Some of that was weather-related. However, there also was a level-shift up in demand on a per-degree basis, meaning more gas was burned than historically at the same temperatures, signaling a gain in gas market share. What were the drivers, and can we expect this growth pace to continue? Today, we take a closer look at the demand components behind the recent growth trends.
The Lower-48 gas supply-demand balance in 2018 was especially tight. The combination of the tighter balance and an enormous deficit in storage compared with 2017 and the five-year average had the market unsettled going into the coldest months of this winter. At the time, we looked at the annual average balance for the January-November period in 2018 versus the prior years going back to 2010.