Morning Note: February 4, 2019

The wall: tea leaves suggest negotiators have found a solution. 

OPEC: oil princes are fighting for survival. Good luck. 

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: data posted here.

Active rigs:

$53.63	2/4/2019	02/04/2018	02/04/2017	02/04/2016	02/04/2015
Active Rigs	64	58	40	44	140

RBN Energy: part 3, structural shifts propel US gas demand. Even more so after the polar vortex. Archived.

Lower-48 natural gas demand surged in 2018, managing to offset ballooning production volumes and putting the gas market on the razor’s edge going into this winter.

Demand growth occurred across all domestic sectors as well as export markets, but was led by increased demand from power generators.

Some of that was weather-related. However, there also was a level-shift up in demand on a per-degree basis, meaning more gas was burned than historically at the same temperatures, signaling a gain in gas market share. What were the drivers, and can we expect this growth pace to continue? Today, we take a closer look at the demand components behind the recent growth trends.

The Lower-48 gas supply-demand balance in 2018 was especially tight. The combination of the tighter balance and an enormous deficit in storage compared with 2017 and the five-year average had the market unsettled going into the coldest months of this winter. At the time, we looked at the annual average balance for the January-November period in 2018 versus the prior years going back to 2010.