Monday, January 13, 2020

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 13, 2020

The other day I mentioned that I did not know what the current Amazon Prime was costing me.

I got my reminder today:
This is a reminder that your Prime membership will be renewing soon. On January 17, 2020, your account will be charged $12.99 (plus any applicable taxes) for another month of Prime.
You'll keep enjoying your Prime benefits, including unlimited FREE Two-Day Shipping, unlimited streaming of thousands of movies and TV episodes, ad-free access to over two million songs, free unlimited photo storage, exclusive 30-minute early access to Lightning Deals, free Kindle books, and more.
If you do not wish to continue your membership, please visit the Manage Your Prime Membership page. You will lose access to your Prime benefits and your card will not be charged.
Thanks for being a member of Amazon Prime.
They could have added free two-hour grocery shipping.


No link. Google key words. 
A political hobnobber who featured prominently as a key witness in former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation faces at least a decade in prison after pleading guilty to charges of child sex trafficking and possessing child pornography.

Lebanese-American businessman George Nader, 60, entered a plea deal Monday in federal court in Alexandria, Va., admitting to transporting a 14-year-old boy from the Czech Republic to Washington, D.C., in 2000 to engage in sexual activity with him. He also admitted to possessing child pornography depicting infants or toddlers.

Nader is still separately under indictment in Washington along with seven others on charges of conspiring to conceal the source of more than $3.5 million in political donations to Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential campaign.
Nader allegedly was reporting to an unnamed Middle Eastern government on that operation, which was intended to curry favor with Clinton.
It's been my impression that charges -- worked out with a plea deal -- are only the tip of the iceberg. 

New National Poll Released Earlier Today -- Quinnipiac -- January 13, 2020

Link here.

I haven't looked at it but the Quinnipiac is much more credible than the Economist poll, the previous poll.

Now, we'll look at the new polls.

Quinnipiac, 1/8 - 1/12 (2020), national:
  • Biden still in the "20s", but for the front-runner, pretty lousy numbers: 25% nationally;
  • Sanders: 19%; pretty much unchanged from where he's been all along
  • Warren: 16%; she remains interesting only because she is still in third place, but 16% is pretty much "done"; at a brokered convention, she will release her delegates to support Sanders, with a quid pro quo for her support
  • The rest are all irrelevant, but for the record:
    • Buttigieg: 8%; for all the press he gets, he hasn't moved a bit in the polls
    • Bloomberg: 6% - about where he was in the Harris poll in late December; his comments in the past 48 hours already suggest he is ready to concede that he's not going to get the nomination;
    • Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, 4% and will be stuck in the US Senate when Articles of Impeachment come up;
    • Steyer: 1%; which is better than 0%;
Also, a new Iowa poll since the very liberal DMR/CNN poll, the Monmouth poll, 1/9 - 1/12 (2020):
  • Biden at 24% and should improve when his competition is listening to Articles of Impeachment up in the US Senate starting next week;
  • Sanders (18%), Buttigieg (17%) and Pocahontas (15%) all in a statistical tie for second place;
  • Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, at 8%;
  • Steyer, 4% -- this speaks volumes about how the Iowa caucuses work;
And a new New Hampshire poll, the Boston Herald, 1/8 - 1/12 (2020):
  • Biden (26%) and Sanders (22%) pretty much tied;
  • Pocahontas: 18% in her own region; she's not going anywhere;
  • Klobuchar, a legend in her own own mind, at 2% tied with Steyer 
  • Buttigieg? Almost forget: 7% 
At some point we'll talk about delegates and that will take us to Super Tuesday, and California. An old poll, but the most recent poll:
  • Pocahontas (23%) and Sanders (26%) combined, out-poll Biden by 49% to 19%
  • again, that suggests to me that Pocahontas will throw her support to Sanders on the second vote
More Politics

I'm getting a kick out of watching Nancy Pelosi defend her decision to delay the Articles of Impeachment.

Had this been a Republican speaker of the house, the mainstream media would have skewered the Republican. But this being Pelosi and a Democrat, the mainstream media buys into her explanations.

She didn't gain a thing. Worse, with all that happened in the couple of weeks, the Articles of Impeachment seem really, really weak and irrelevant.

But Nancy's correct: Trump will go down in history as an impeached president and no one can ever take that away from him. LOL.

A reader opined, and others have said the same thing, she did this to "help" Biden. At first I agreed, but on further reflection, I don't think Pelosi is that smart. But it will be interesting to watch. Senators Biden, Sanders, and Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, will hope for a quick acquittal so they can get back to campaigning.

Regardless, world events have certainly altered things. Since this whole thing began a few months ago, Trump has simply gotten stronger:
  • the economy remains on a tear; getting better if anything
  • the market remains on a tear; all-time records for major indices
  • China - US relations seem much better than six months ago
  • takes out the world's #1 terrorist
  • mainstream media immediately tried to sow seeds of doubt in American public regarding timing, legality
  • then: Iran shoots down a commercial airliner; lies about it; and then finally admits it
  • all of a sudden, the #1 global terrorist becomes the face of the mullahs, and Trump gets a twofer

WTI Plummets; Down Almost 2%; Barely Hanging On To The $58-Handle -- January 13, 2020

Reminder: college football tonight. Clemson and some other team. Geaux Tigers. President Trump and First Lady Melania have just arrived ... to chants of "USA! USA! USA!" What a wonderfully warm reception for the first lady. Mike Bloomberg couldn't buy that kind of photo op for $1 billion. Live video shots of US military serving overseas. 

Dow futures: up 14 points but to some extent that's an "overhang" from today's market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

 Back to Oil and Back to the Bakken

"Plummets" may be too strong a word, but considering how far it had already fallen; and, despite tensions in the Mideast, for WTI falling almost 2% in one day seems to be a bit noteworthy.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5467553651

Five new permits, #37335 - #37339, inclusive
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Dollar Joe (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for a 3-well Miller pad in section 10-153-92, Sanish oil field
    • Whiting has permits for a 2-well Ark pad in section 15-155-97, Dollar Joe oil field
Five permits renewed:
  • EOG (3) two Sidonia permits and one Parshall permit, all in Mountrail County
  • RimRock (2): two Charging Eagle permits, both in Dunn County

Re-Posting: Longest Uninterrupted Expansion In History -- January 13, 2020

Market: NASDAQ and S&P 500 hit all-time records.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Business news chatter: I'm bedridden, as they say, so watching a bit more business news than usual. Again, lots of talk of "how long can this bull market go on?" Over ten years now, this is the longest uninterrupted expansion in modern history. I would argue that the charts show/suggest something different.

Previously posted:
One wonders if the current expansion actually began in late 2016; if so, this expansion could be just beginning. Maybe the current expansion can be measured from sometime in 2016. It's subtle, but ....

Link here.

Some might argue the boom is just beginning, especially if one sees the graphic below in the graph above:

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 13, 2020

Cory Booker: suspends 2020 presidential campaign.

Refinery: it's hard to believe I missed this one but I'm not sure I have previously reported this. Shell is looking to sell its Washington refinery. If the sale takes place, it would leave Shell's refining operations in North America concentrated along the Texas/Louisiana gulf coast.
  • Shell sold its US refinery in Martinez, CA, last year
  • another Shell refinery, this one in Canada, is also up for sale: the 75,000 bpd Sarnia refinery, Ontario
  • the Washington state refinery: 144,000 bpd Anacortes facility
  • Shell will be left with three refineries in the US; two in Louisiana (combined: 500,000 bopd) and one in TX (340,000 bpd)
Drones: Trump to stop civilian drone program due to China tech concerns.
The US Interior Department is considering halting about 1,000 drones over potential spying risk. The U.S. government is planning to permanently halt its civilian drone program due to the devices being made at least partly in China.
The Interior Department is considering halting about 1,000 drones after deciding that the risk of the drones being used by Beijing for spying was too high. 
Interior Secretary David Bernhardt has not signed an official policy but is planning to pull the fleet from action, with exceptions for emergencies like fighting wildfires and training.
 The Brits:

Idle Rambling

Yesterday about 10:00 a.m. I started noting some vague muscle pain. Not much else, but I could tell that I "was coming down with something."

By 2:00 p.m. it was quite obvious that I was coming down with "the flu."

No nausea, vomiting, or any real respiratory compromise except for a lot of coughing during the night, but wow did I have severe muscle aches (not really pain, just generalized aches).

I went to bed early. I did not take my temperature but I certainly felt I had a high fever. Most interesting was the delirium I experienced during the night. It was really very, very interesting. I don't ever recall such an experience in the past.

This morning I took some aspirin/ibuprofen and am now 100% better. Not back to completely normal, but much improved. Now clear liquids, toast and honey, and I assume by tomorrow this should all be behind me.

North Dakota's Active Rig Count Down To 53; CLR And Enerplus Report Nice Wells -- January 13, 2020

Sorry for the delay in posting this morning. More on that later.

Earnings season begins: off to the races and right out of the gate -- BAX --
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5367553651

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, Monday --

Monday, January 13, 2019: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter; 35 for the year:
  • 36626, SI/NC, XTO, Haustveit 42X-10DXA, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 35906, 2,178, CLR, Honolulu 4-15H, Indian Hill, t7/19; cum 117K 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Sunday, January 12, 2019: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter; 33 for the year:
  • None. 
Saturday, January 11, 2019: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter; 33 for the year:
  • 35890, 257, Enerplus, Typhoon 149-93-07D-12-TF, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 78K 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 35889, 257, Enerplus, Lightning 149-93-07D-12H, Mandaree, t7/19; cum 84K 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

RBN Energy: western Canada 2020 gas supplies to expand on TC Energy's Nova system. 
This year looks like it could be a better one for many Canadian natural gas producers. Like their brethren in the U.S., they have been forced in recent years to increasingly spend within — and even less than — cash flow as other sources of financing have dried up and investors have prioritized better returns over production volume growth. With Canadian gas producers having also faced some of the worst natural gas pricing conditions on record in 2019, far worse than those in the U.S., it is no wonder that Canadian natural gas supplies pulled back in 2019, marking the first down year for overall gas supplies since 2012. Despite what is likely still to be a cash flow and spending constrained environment in 2020, there is the potential for real upside for Western Canadian natural gas supplies this year, especially for the supply that flows into TC Energy’s Nova pipeline system. Today, we consider what may be setting the stage for gas supply gains on the Nova system in 2020 after a somewhat dismal 2019.