Sunday, December 22, 2019

The Graphic Without Definitions Or Narrative -- December 22, 2019

Everyone is concerned that the current US expansion, the longest in US history, simply cannot last any longer. Expansionary cycles simply don't last this long.

I've talked about this just the other day. 

One wonders if the current expansion actually began in late 2016; if so, this expansion could be just beginning. Maybe the current expansion can be measured from sometime in 2016. It's subtle, but ....

Link here.

Some might argue the boom is just beginning, especially if one sees the graphic below in the graph above:

  • cheap money -- really cheap money
    • Fed cuts rates again -- and telegraphs unequivocally there will be no increase in rates through 2020
    • Fed injects billions of dollars into the banking system to keep things going
  • no government shut down -- $1.4 trillion "budget" to avert government shutdown
    • DOD -- budget increased -- will drive lots of jobs
    • new Space Force -- new growth engine for DOD?
  • current pro-business attitude in Washington 
    • lots of overseas jobs moving back to the US
  • the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is still only two years old; benefits continue to work through the economy; those pro-business tax cuts in 2018 and 2019 will continue into 2020
    • current administration looking for new/more tax cuts
    • in election year, neither party likely to push back on new tax cuts
  • low unemployment: more money circulating through economy
  • FICO credit card score said to be highest in eleven years in some studies; one link here
  • discretionary income could increase in 2020
    • both parties looking to relieve student aid debt
    • Americans could spend smallest amount, as a percentage of their income, on gasoline in modern history in 2020
    • punitive ObamaCare taxes being eliminated
    • huge amount of IRA money could be "freed up" in 2020 
  • avoided
    • global warming taxes and economy-killing policies
  • tectonic trade shifts
    • USMCA passed
    • China-US trade, phase 1 passed 
  • Boeing [Five minutes after posting this, I see that the Boeing Spaceliner nailed it; perfect landing; maybe Boeing can be removed as a headwind.]
Other links:
Note: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy.

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