Saturday, June 5, 2021

Why The Bakken Excites Me -- Hubbert: Once A Well Starts To Decline, It Won't Reverse -- June 5, 2021

Another example of what makes the Bakken so exciting for me.

This well is tracked here.

  • 20111, 718, Zavanna, Wildcat 1-11H, Stony Creek, short lateral, 20 stages, 2.3 million lbs, t8/11; cum 319K 5/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 4/21; produces small amount over five days, 3/21; cum 322K 4/21;

As noted above, this well was taken off line at the end of May, 2020. It remained off line for almost a full ten months, coming back on line for five days in March, 2021, and then for a full 30 days in April, 2021. 

A lot of mom-and-pop mineral owners would have been disappointed to see this well coming off line almost a year ago, but imagine how excited they must be to see it coming back on line. And it looks like it will be a pretty good well after it comes back on line. Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202130237421453207000
BAKKEN3-2021537431962048535951
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20202983181914261560111414
BAKKEN4-2020301443139816161683114591
BAKKEN3-20203011771165163019521123382

We're Going To Get To 2035 Ten Years Early -- Thank You, China -- June 5, 2021

PTI: before we get started. Wow, am I angry! The big, big, big story in sports today -- Jon Rahm, third round, PGA, Memorial Tournament, running away with the lead, six ahead of whoever was in second place ... and then he tested positive. And had to withdraw at the end of three rounds.

No alligator tears for him. Just plain anger. Aren't sports figures supposed to be role models? Haven't they learned anything this past year? Aren't they giving PSA's encouraging Americans to get vaccinated?

It turns out the threesome in which Rahm was playing, none of the three were vaccinated. Link here

In case that article is edited or removed, I've copied and pasted the key paragraphs and posted them elsewhere

Memo to self: file under self-made idiot.

Now, back to what I was going to say. Sorry for the interruption.

One of the themes of the blog: the Covid-19 pandemic compressed 2020 - 2035 into 2020 - 2025. 

Where "we" would have been in 2035, the pandemic accelerated things and by 2025 -- maybe sooner -- we'll be there (2035), ten years early. 

I've provided examples for weeks now. Here's another.

Retailers know that some customers want to "get in, get out" to minimize exposure. And sure enough, I saw it in action today at Target.

Every other week or so I stop by Target to pick up a bag of candy to give to one of our apartment managers as a "thank you" gift for all they do to make my life wonderful here in the complex. 

Target was as busy as I've seen it. Really, really busy. The check out lines were moving fast; I had no complaints. Then "Valerie" walked up to me, saw me with a single bag of candy, and asked me if I was paying "by card." I said, "yes," and she invited me over to her "pop-up" table where I swiped my credit card through the little smart-phone-device. I said, "no receipt, no bag" and simply walked out the door. 

Target has it figured out. They're taking a page out of the Apple store. Color me impressed.  

"Get in, get out." And that mindset will continue long after Covid-19 is in our rear view mirror.

**************************************
2035 Will Be Here Ten Years Early

If you can accept that, it changes everything.

Including investing. 

I don't know if folks have been following their mutual fund investments, but my hunch is some folks have never seen their investments grow so fast. 

*****************************

Why Rigs Don't Matter -- June 5, 2021

Link here

CLR Is Starting To Report Production On The Simmental Federal / Angus Federal Wells -- June 5, 2021

These wells are tracked here.

CLR is just starting to produce these wells. There are way too many to post tonight. I may eventually get to them, but for newbies, this is a great example of "money in the ground." These wells have been drilled to depth for quite some time; and are now just being completed. They were spud in late 2019. 

Oil prices were very, very low all last but recently have trended toward $70 (WTI). What a great time to frack and complete these wells. 

Folks keep talking about the need for more rigs and more drilling, in fact, what many operators could use are frack spreads and completing these DUCs

Go to the link and look at all the wells that CLR will bring on line at the same time. And although these are not monster wells, they look like they are going to be very nice wells.

For example, some of the wells:

  • 37058, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Angus Federal 9-9H, Elm Tree:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20212524812246621405140629387721857
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-2021430030012327370737
  • 37057, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Angus Federal 10-9N, Elm Tree,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20212525920257631349240769389071862
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-2021452352315696660666
  • 37060, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Angus Federal 7-9H, Elm Tree,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021241717717073928834261326911570
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20214682682298000
  • 37059, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, CLR, Angus Federal 8-9H1, Elm Tree,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021241381413730117642155820574984
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20213161161242112011CLR

Wow, Wow, Wow -- We Have IPs -- The MRO L-O-T-V Wells -- June 5, 2021

This parent well shows a great halo effect:

  • 18693, 560, MRO, Betty Shobe USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, 9/10; cum 343K 3/20; off line 1/19; back on line 2/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 10/20; cum 361K 4/21; huge halo effect; see this post;

These wells are tracked here with graphics. We've been watching these wells for four months and finally we have their IPs. One word: huge.

  • 36921, 4,453, MRO, Vickall USA 41-5H, 33-061-04593, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t11/20; cum 192K 4/21; fracked 9/16/20 - 9/29/20; big frack, 10.4 million gallons; but again, note the "low fresh water": 65.2% (no typo) water by mass but also produced water, 18.3% water by mass; extrapolates to 69,780 bbls over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021169752963471742641425079673
BAKKEN3-20211918070181501152134605334840
BAKKEN2-20212828996294612280360638578411020
BAKKEN1-20213159335587613574496795932620
BAKKEN12-20202829028296182188841010392720
BAKKEN11-2020204652045615445045955356518271
BAKKEN10-202020088989188
  • 36922, 5,055, MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, 33-061-04594, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 245K 4/21; fracked 9/16/20 - 9/28/20; moderate frack, 9.8 million gallons; but again, note the "low fresh water": 66.3% (no typo) water by mass; extrapolates to 113,832 bbls over 30 days; for the record, 26K bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 98K bbls over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213015664153732191257477518654490
BAKKEN3-20213123673236312904075221736390
BAKKEN2-20212827922279882452762227592511254
BAKKEN1-20213131653317823043447235453630
BAKKEN12-20203055580554865119873570702600
BAKKEN11-2020826150265392202530526289830
BAKKEN10-202017645056360767387679184402020158
  • 36923, 4,806, MRO, Thorson USA 41-8H, 33-061-04595, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 226K 4/21; fracked 9/16/20 - 9/29/20; big frack, 10.5 million gallons; but again, note the "low fresh water": 66.2% (no typo) water by mass; extrapolates to 68,196 bbls over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021301767917417137993880036655983
BAKKEN3-2021312119321178151164386142100408
BAKKEN2-20212822299222861546541129397460
BAKKEN1-20213133596337702420050432484180
BAKKEN12-2020316195061982457477814874423117
BAKKEN11-2020214773747558409116226759299342
BAKKEN10-2020821575212821914721302188861146

  • 37323, 4,252, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, 33-061-04659, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 228K 4/21; fracked 9/16/20 - 9/26/20; moderate frack, 7.5 million gallons; but again, note the "extremely low fresh water": 59.6% (no typo) water by mass; but 25.1% produced brine water by mass; 49,879 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 83,117 bbls over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2021301842818185198823999937804986
BAKKEN3-2021312417424228236775167049621498
BAKKEN2-20212831160311312924756126541990
BAKKEN1-20213145678457324344669958672150
BAKKEN12-20202958376579616089476880734710
BAKKEN11-2020006760000
BAKKEN10-202018498704919471407629074352516447

The MRO A-J-2K-S pad:

  • 36919, 3,212, MRO, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20, t11/20; cum 175K 4/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213029575295933327071299679131528
BAKKEN3-20213132820326733721957616556390
BAKKEN2-20212618695186662938227100248141150
BAKKEN1-20213126124261404324737667361080
BAKKEN12-20203028054282964867038494368160
BAKKEN11-20202240073394988963853394510190
BAKKEN10-2020200308000
  • 36918, 4,547, MRO, Kolbo USA 34-5H, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; 18K; t10/20; cum 280K 4/21; 54K over 20 days extrapolates to 81K bbls over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20211818861191891347236197336831362
BAKKEN3-20213041959419532479395857932620
BAKKEN2-2021193376233987193234703544861122
BAKKEN1-20213170051697194264699144949700
BAKKEN12-20202843615438733437457226546260
BAKKEN11-20202054049541026704267815646250
BAKKEN10-2020717778169492789417695149011764
  • 18692, IA/781, MRO, Jasper L USA 34-5H Reunion Bay, t11/10; cum 368K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 10/20; 
  • 36920, 4,336, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t11/20; cum 271K 4/21; 60K over 21 days extrapolates to 86K over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213031750317992846860796572961559
BAKKEN3-20213137204372322936954912527030
BAKKEN2-20212731676316192477555989515472476
BAKKEN1-20213143625438824268363465608600
BAKKEN12-20203166239663207175386498825510
BAKKEN11-20202160451595837136064793612630
  • 18693, 560, MRO, Betty Shobe USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, 9/10; cum 343K 3/20; off line 1/19; back on line 2/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 10/20; cum 361K 4/21; huge halo effect; see this post;

Federal Judge Overturns California's 32-Year Assault Weapons Ban -- June 5, 2021

Updates

June 6, 2021: the judge's decision here. The judge's biography.

Original Post

How does this not end up in the US Supreme Court? And isn't the court's agenda "set" for this next year? 

If the judges "seen" as "conservative" vote to uphold this ban, expect to see President Biden move on the Progressive agenda for the US Supreme Court.

******************************
Jim O'Neill, Baron O'Neill Of Gatley

BRICs, N-11,  and MINT. 

Link to wiki here

***************************
Nigeria

Link to wiki -- Nigeria

Kingdom of Benin.  

Benin.

Oneowrld, Barnaby Phillips, c. 2021.

Our new neighbors are Nigerian. Time to learn a bit about the "old country."

  • population
    • most populous country in Africa
    • seventh-most populous country in the world
  • largest economy in Africa:
    • 27th largest in the world
    • often referred to as the "Giant of Africa"
    • a member of the MINT group of countries; one of the N-11; member of OPEC
  • language and ethnic groups
    • official language: English.
    • 250 ethnic groups
    • 500 distinct languages
  • population:
    • one-half: Muslim, to the north
    • one-half: Christians, to the south

Lagos (not the capital): one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world; largest city in Africa.

Covid-19:

  • total number of cases: well down the global list; #82
  • total cases per million population: 791
    • compare with:
      • Sweden: 106,135
      • USA: 102,691
      • Israel: 90,021
  • total deaths per million population: 10
    • compare with:
      • UK: 1,74
      • US: 1,838
      • France: 1,679

Frack Spread -- Primary Vision Network -- June 4, 2021

Link here. Interesting to listen to in the background.

****************************
North Face 

From a reader: oil and gas industry trolls North Face in Denver

*************************
Tour of the Moon

Imagine if the moon had not been there to block all these "hits."


Tell me again, there was/is no intelligent designer. Or, if there wasn't, tell me how many "human-hospitable" planets there are in the universe.

Music from the movie Rocketman (2019) is playing in the background and an image of the love of my life flashes across  my frontal lobe. Or parietal lobes. One of those lobes.

Atmospheric CO2 -- April, 2021

Previously posted, but the graphics were not included.

Link here.

One year earlier:

Pemex Piss-Poor Planning -- June 5, 2021

 Re-posting.

***********************************
Pemex: Deer Park

Updates

June 5, 2021: Pemex plans for Deer Park unlikely to work. And from ArgusMedia.

Original Post

Deer Park, Houston, TX, refinery: 50-50 joint venture between Shell and Pemex.

  • Fast forward, to May 24, 2021: Shell accepts unsolicited offer from Pemex for Deer Park. Link at World Oil. Deal:
    • $596 million, cash and debt;
    • Shell will retain its on-site chemical facility

A Perfect Storm Brewing? June 5, 2021

This was posted yesterday, June 4, 2021:

Wouldn't it be ironic if there is a perfect storm brewing? The Dems' worst nightmare.

Overnight:

All we need:

  • a normal hurricane season;
  • ransomware attack on US refiners