Thursday, August 15, 2019

Idle Rambling On A Thursday Night -- August 25, 2019

The price of crude oil to natural gas is 25 to one. The fact that the USPS did not convert its blue-and-white mini-van fleet to natural gas (or EVs) years ago, tells me all I need to know about how serious the US government is about CO2 emissions. FWIW.

Let's see what else there is to talk about.

Link here.


And I love those signs on the Walmart doors: no guns allowed. LOL.

Wow, I love the comics. Link here.

Why Renewable Energy Can't Save The Planet

We haven't played this in a long time:

Cruisin', Michael Nesmith

Average Daily Well Production -- North Dakota -- August 15, 2019

Link here.

Current;

All-time record, per well:


In the big scheme of things, is 10 bbls/well/day really significant? Yup. Before jumping to conclusions, check the price of oil in 2014 and the current price of oil.

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Happy Birthday


The celebration began last weekend, continues through this next weekend. Will culminate in a barbecue: lamb and salmon.

A Thought While Poolside -- August 15, 2019

Clintons - Cuomo - DeBlasio -- Epstein Kashoggied In NYC. HBO movie out by the end of the year. Working title: "Make It Look Like Suicide." Producer: Breitbart. Director: Coen Bros, another dark comedy. Technical advisors: Quentin Tarantino; Prince Salman; and, Stevie Wonder.

From social media today:

Flaring In The Bakken: The Big Story #0OTT Missed -- August 15, 2019

Updates

August 16, 2019: one day later, #OOTT re-tweets it. 

Original Post 

From the Director's Cut for June, 2019, flaring:
  • with natural gas at $1.77 / mcf (it was $.195 last month), the oil-to-gas price ratio at Watford City, ND, is 25 to 1
  • statewide gas flared volume increased 154,966 mcfpd month-over-month (it decreased month-over-month in May, 2019, so this increase is disturbing)
    • produced, April, 2019: 2,833,131 mcfpd
    • produced, May, 2019: 87,471844 mcf for the month
    • produced, May, 2019: 2,821,672 mcf/day
    • produced, June, 2019: 86,330,660 mcf/month
    • produced, June, 2019: 2,876,689 mcf/day
  • 57,246 / 2,876,689 = about 2%; last month it was 0.554% or about half a percent; so in one month we went from half a percent to a 2% increase in production of natural gas
  • capture rate:
    • statewide capture: 76% (last month: 81%)
    • non-FBIR Bakken: 80% (last month: 85%)
    • FBIR Bakken: 63% (last month it was 69%)
    • goals: a capture rate of 88%
Glad to see the BLM all over this one.

I have no idea what the "new rules" regarding flaring are but if interested, there is a tag, flaring_new rules.

Time to build that petrochemical plant. The amount of natural gas production is only going to increase.

North Dakota At #4 -- But Well Above Texas, Oklahoma, Alaska -- Doing More With Less -- August 15, 2019

Link here.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) State Energy Data System (SEDS), every state saw increased total energy expenditures and total energy expenditures as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 compared with the previous year. Only the District of Columbia had a decrease in total energy expenditures. States such as Louisiana, Mississippi, and Wyoming, which tend to have relatively more energy-intensive industries, have a much higher percentage of energy expenditures per dollar of GDP. The District of Columbia and states that have concentrated urban areas with less energy-intensive industries, such as Massachusetts and New York, have the lowest expenditures per GDP.
U.S. total energy expenditures (the amount of money spent to consume energy in the United States) increased in 2017 for the first time since 2014, reaching $1.14 trillion. U.S. GDP, calculated as the total value of goods and services produced in the United States including energy, totaled $19.5 trillion in 2017, 4% more than 2016 levels in nominal terms and 2% more in real terms (adjusted for inflation).
In 2017, U.S. energy expenditures per GDP reached 5.8%, up from a record low of 5.6% in 2016, after its first annual increase since 2011. These increases are primarily a result of increased average U.S. energy prices, up almost 9% nationally from 2016 to 2017. Average U.S. prices for petroleum and natural gas increased by 14% and 13%, respectively, and electricity prices increased by 2%. Total U.S. energy consumption increased by less than 1% during the same time.

Louisiana had the highest energy expenditures per GDP of any state in 2017 at 13.5%. In this ranking, Louisiana has been the highest every year since 1997, the earliest year for which EIA has state data. In 2017, 50% of the state’s total energy expenditures occurred in the industrial sector, which includes its energy-intensive petrochemical industry. Overall, Louisiana’s total energy expenditures increased by nearly 21% from 2016 to 2017, the largest percentage increase of any state during that period. 
Much more at the link. 

Resonance To Drill A Wildcat -- Bless Those Wildcatters -- August 15, 2019

Active rigs:

$54.618/15/201908/15/201808/15/201708/15/201608/15/2015
Active Rigs6157563174

Two new permits, #36857 - #36858, inclusive:
  • Operator: Resonance Exploration, Slawson
  • Fields: Big Bend (Mountrail); wildcat;
  • Comments: 
    • Resonance will drill a wildcat, a horizontal, in section 23-163-80; well east and north of the Bakken core 
    • Slawson has a permit for a Shakafox well in section 33-152-92, Big Bend oil field;
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34350, 19 (no typo), XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19C, Bear Den, t7/19; cum --;
  • 34349, 92 (no typo), XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19F2, Bear Den, t7/19; cum --; yup, a Three Forks second bench; seven miles southeast of Johnsons Corner; pad already has three producing wells at the time this well was drilled; dolomite; a 30-foot target zone; 2' from the base of the Chocolate Shale and 7 feet above the top of the third bench; background gas ranged as high as 3,350 units; highest was 5,166 units at 20,843 feet.
  • 34864, 3,659, Hess, BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-10, Blue Buttes, t7/19; cum --;
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The Book Page
New book, just arrived:
CRU Oyster Bar Nantucket Cookbook, Erin Zircher, Jane Stoddard and Carlos Hidalgo, c. 2019; Amazon; $25
If you have three shelves of cookbooks and vowed never to buy another cookbook: buy CRU Oyster Bar Nantucket Cookbook. Period. Dot. 

Rigs Don't Matter -- North Dakota Sets All-Time Crude Oil Produciton Record As Well As BOE Production Record -- Despite Low Rig Count -- August 15, 2019

Stayin' alive -- the Bakken theme song. LOL.

Stayin' Alive, The Bee Gees

Posted. Data being updated now.

Director's Cut released. See link above.

I'm going swimming.

Good luck to everyone.

But "we're" gonna set a record 'cause rigs don't matter.

Wow, we're having fun now.

1.424625 - 1.394648 = 0.030 million bopd = 30,000 bopd increase month-over-month.

That's about a 2% increase, in crude oil production, month-over-month.

So, if rigs don't matter, what matters?
  • total number of producing wells
  • new wells coming on line each month
  • frack spreads
For flaring data, see this post. June, 2019, flaring data at this post.


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June, 2019 
Data Pending

Disclaimer applies: I do this quickly; no time for proofreading. There will be factual and typographical errors.

Over at twitter it's being reported that North Dakota oil production:
  • June, 2019 (preliminary): 1.424625million bopd
  • May, 2019 (final): 1.394648 million bopd
  • April, 2019 (final): 1.392485 million bopd
Crude oil production:
  • June, 2019: 1.424625 million bopd (preliminary) (all-time high -- new record)
  • May, 2019: 1,394,648 bopd (final)
  • April, 2019: 1,392,485, bopd (final) (see above: I predicted: 1,392,810 -- off by 385 bopd -- whoo-hoo!)
    • April crude oil production "increased" by 2,347 bopd or 0.1688%
Crude oil production:
  • June, 2019 (preliminary): 1,424,625 bopd (it will be revised upward when the final numbers come out next month)
  • May, 2019 (final): 1,394,648 bopd
  • April, 2019 (final): 1,392,485 bopd
  • January, 2019, all-time high: 1,403,808 bopd
Delta, crude oil:
  • June, 2019 (preliminary):  1,424,625 bopd
  • May, 2019 (preliminary):1,394,648 bopd
  • April, 2019 (final): 1,392,485
  • delta, month-over-month, bbls: 29,977 bopd increase
  • delta, month-over-month, percent: a 2.15% increase
Natural gas production:
  • June, 2019 (preliminary): 2,876,689 (new all-time high)
  • May, 2019 (final): 2,819,443 mcfpd
  • April, 2019 (final): 2,833,131 mcfpd (this is now the all-time high)
BOE:
  • June, 2019: 2,876,689 MCF/day ( all-time high) = 479,368 boe (new all-time high) + 1,394,648 = 1,874,116 boepd
Producing wells:
  • June, 2019: 15,741 (preliminary - new all-time high)
  • May, 2019: 15,703 
  • April, 2019: 15,503 
  • March, 2019: 15,353 -- well below the all-time high of 15,409 in January, 2019
  • February, 2019: 15,154
  • January, 2019: 15,409
 Permitting:
  • July: 141
  • June: 127
  • May; 140
  • April: 129
  • March: 133 
  • February: 109
DUCs
  • waiting to be completed (DUCs): 983 (down 2)
  • inactive wells: 1,553 (down)
Gas capture [later: see this post]

  • statewide: 76%
  • FBIR: 63%
  • non-FBIR Bakken: 80%
Time to build that petrochemical plant!

Disregard This Post -- Nothing About The Bakken -- MDW-Unplugged, Part 3 -- August 15, 2019

[To "Mike": sorry. I accidentally rejected one of your comments -- fat fingers on my part -- I re-posted what you said about the bass guitarist and sequins. LOL.]

I am still blown away this week's EIA report on US gasoline demand. Huge.

It's "me-time." If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right. 

Theme songs: I can't decide whether this should be the theme song for the 24 dwarfs or the GOP senators? You decide. LOL.

Let's Stick Together, Bryan Ferry

The bass guitarist is over-dressed.

For those asking, the saxaphonist is Jorja Chalmers. Australian.

Epstein: multiple broken neck bones. Pathologist asking for more information.

Bill Clinton: one was the wingman for the other.

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Wow, What An Incredible Day!

My better half is out shopping and I have the noon hour free.
  • Scotch, Suntori
  • shrimp cocktail
  • Claremont Review of Books, Spring, 2019, issue; the Thomas D. Klingenstein essay
  • Rush Limbaugh
    • and guess what Rush is talking about: the "inverted curve"
    • the two-year Treasury pays more than the 10-year Treasury
What could be better? What a great country!

I wish everyone could read (and understand) the Thomas D. Klingenstein essay on "Patriotism vs Multiculturalism," and the "Symposium" that follows.

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Inconsistencies
And we're worried about UFOs? LOL.

A "complete but still evolving" list of "Epstein inconsistencies," link here:
  • Epstein said he was considering cooperating in “naming names” in his international sex ring
  • he was found unconscious in his prison cell just three weeks earlier
  • two days prior to his death documents released for the first time implicated several top Democrats in his pedo sex ring
  • he was taken off suicide watch after a failed attempt just two weeks earlier
  • he was in isolation (unusual for a suicidal individual)
  • the cameras malfunctioned — there is no video (for me, this is #1)
    • even Mexico had video of El Chapo’s escape from prison
    • then later we hear the cameras showed the guards did not do rounds? Which is it?
  • the prison guards had worked several extra shifts last week
  • one prison guard on his floor was not even a certified guard (for me, this is #2)
  • the prison guards “forgot” to check on Epstein
  • the prison guards slept through their shift
  • the guards did not check Epstein for several hours
  • there were reports of screaming the morning Epstein died
  • the MCC had not seen a successful suicide in 40 years (for me, this is #3)
  • Epstein said he was the victim of attempted murder three weeks ago
  • Epstein’s former cellmate is facing mass murder charges
  • Epstein had dirt on numerous globalist elites
  • Epstein was not given paper sheets (news to me)
  • Epstein had sheets in his cell to hang himself
  • Epstein was not suicidal according to medical professionals
  • Epstein told his lawyers on Friday, a day before his death, “See you Sunday.”
  • Epstein’s former roommate heard nothing
  • Epstein reportedly had to get on his knees to hang himself from his bed
  • Epstein autopsy showed broken bones in neck common in strangulation deaths 
Can't wait to see the pathologist's report.

Disregard This Post -- Nothing About The Bakken -- MDW-Unplugged, Part 2 -- August 15, 2019

Part 1 was here, but I was interrupted by "the gasoline demand" story.

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

Stock market?

Lynn Anderson never promised you a rose garden. LOL.

I Beg Your Pardon, I Never Promised You A Rose Garden, Lynn Anderson

I've finally moved into the 21st century ... at least in one respect: hands-free telephone while driving. Wow. Had it for quite some time. Just "discovered" it yesterday. Had it in the car for the past month or so. Hint: 87.9 in the DWF area and put it on "Pre-set 1."


I thought Alexa was great, but this is the cat's meow.

Huge thanks to my Portland, OR, brother-in-law telling me about this. For an old guy, he sure knows a lot. 

Huge -- Nothing About The Bakken -- US Energy Story Of The Week -- August 15, 2019

This is still "me-time."

If you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right.

This is huge, absolutely huge.

Gasoline demand. Link here.


Most of us will simply note the graph and move on.

But I thought Tesla and Prius and the Bolt and the Leaf meant the end of US demand for gasoline.

Something to think about.

But something else to think about.

Extrapolate that graph to China and India.

9.932 / 9.651 = 3% jump week-over-week.

9.932 / 9.512 = a 4% jump year-over-year.

Rockin' all over the world.

Rocking All Over The World, Night of the Proms

Disregard This Post -- Nothing About The Bakken -- MDW-Unplugged -- August 15, 2019

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

So much going on, but as far as I'm concerned, I'm caught up. Time to do some reading. Maybe some proofreading of the blog. But first, one last check, the Drudge Report and Fox News.

It's "me-time" right now. If you came here for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right.

Oh, by the way, before I get started, I really do appreciate the comments sent to me last evening by "Tom." He was willing to go farther/further out on the proverbial limb explaining current economic/financial events. I find the whole "recession" talk interesting: the Fed; the Treasuries; etc. Wow, I'm glad I don't watch CNBC any more. I assume Liesman, I forget his first name ... Steve? ... is having a field day explaining everything that's going on. I do miss Kudlow. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

Highlight of the past week: getting a better understanding of the geography, especially the waterways in and around NYC, from Long Island, east to Philadelphia west, and then north to Albany and south New Jersey, Trenton, or thereabouts. Two books:
  • The Battle For New York: The City at the Heart of the American Revolution, Barnet Schecter, c. 2002
  • Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution, Nathaniel Philbrick, c. 2016
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20,000 Households To See $23/Year In Tax Revenue With New Turbines 
Wind power: Warren Buffett riding this scam. PacifiCorp replacing "old" wind turbines with "new" turbines. Did anyone do the math on this one:
Portland, Oregon-based PacifiCorp plans to replace 68 wind turbines at the Foote Creek I wind farm with 13 turbines. The wind farm atop the barren and blustery ridge called Foote Creek Rim west of Cheyenne will continue to generate about 41 megawatts, or enough electricity to power nearly 20,000 homes.
Not mentioned in the story:
  • age of "old" turbines (but hints at 20-years old)
  • actual amount of electricity provided vs nameplate capacity
  • tax breaks for Berkshire Hathaway, et al
  • amount of CO2 produced (FWIW) in construction and installation of these massive turbines
  • whether any CO2 savings will actually be realized
  • whether any CO2 savings were realized from the "old" turbines 
A bit more information  here:
  • first commissioned in 1999
  • $14 million in tax revenue for local counties
  • wow, sounds like a lot
  • but that's over 30 years
  • $14 million / 30 years = $500,000 / year
  • 20,000 households: $500,000 / 20,000 households = $23 / year = one cup of Starbucks coffee each month ... each month
Wow, talk about slow. The EIA posted "gasoline demand" yesterday as they do every day but they did not post the updated  "gasoline demand" graph until today. One would think they could post both the data and the graph at the same time. Does the graph below suggest a "recession right around the corner"? The global economy is made up of 1,576,234,353 data points. These data points / pixels make up one large economic mosaic.  One of those data points is "gasoline demand."  Some data points are dark black, some are dark red. The data points, the pixels, the pieces that make up the mosaic change daily. Depending on the color and location of these pixels, the mosaic predicts the future. The really, really cool thing is that the mosaic flashes different things to different folks depending on their world view. The mosaic I see is really, really bullish. I'm with Tom. US Treasuries: flight to safety. Over-subscribed? Rates go down. Pretty simple. Not rocket science. How low do 10-year and 30-year rates go before folks stopping buying them? In Europe, their equivalent rate of return is negative. A past Fed chairman says US Treasuries could go negative. US utility equities, anyone?

Maybe I should post my disclaimer here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

48 Crash, Suzi Quatro


Gasoline demand. I almost forgot. Link here.


It looks like it is a time for a stand-alone post.

Pop Quiz -- MDW-Unplugged -- August 15, 2019

Put on your headphones --

Livin' Thing, ELO

A little quiz.

Connect this song (the original studio version, 1976) with one of the most frequently posted videos on the blog, "Stumblin' In."

Besides liking the song, "Stumblin' In" sort of describes a) my life; b) the blog. 

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Notes From All Over -- Alaska, Norway, London -- August 16, 2019

Alaska: well, this is not good news. Any time a project is delayed for ten years, for all intents and purposes, that project is D.E.A.D. I was wondering why everyone was honking their car horns in celebration in downtown Houston today. [Later: I stand corrected; see first comment. It's only delayed four years, and with FID it's almost "guaranteed" to happen.]


Norway: it's mostly the rich that own EVs in Norway; of course, most Norwegians are rich, too. Link at Bloomberg (paywall but headline says it all) (must be a really, really slow news day):


London, definition of insanity: so let's put up more offshore wind turbines (another paywall, this time at The Financial Times, but tweet says it all). Link to this post on the "The 2019 Great London Array Failure" for background to this story, which by the way, was the top international energy story for last week.


Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- August 15, 2019

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 209K
  • prior revised: 211K
  • forecast consensus: 208K
  • actual: 220K
Peak oil? What peak oil? All that hand wringing about lack of CAPEX for offshore drilling we've been reading about for the past several years? Westwood Global Energy Group says sixteen discoveries estimated to be larger than 100 million boe were made in 1Q19 -- this is already greater than the whole of 2019. For oil, one word: Guyana.

North Sea sale? Exxon reportedly eyes North Sea asset sale. No link. Not interested.

Keeping Texas great: Kinder Morgan to spend almost $200 million near Houston; capital porjects at its Pasadena and Galena Park terminals along the Houston Ship Channel.

Methane leaks: Trump likely won't provide relief the operators want. No link. Not interested.


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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, August 15, 2019: 28 for the month; 77 for the quarter:
  • 35981, SI/NC, Sinclair, Uran 8-15H, Sanish, no production data,
  • 35351, SI/NC, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-3, Alger, no production data,
  • 35342, 633, Kraken Operating, Black Federal 33-28 2TFH, Oliver, t3/19; cum 67K 6/19;
  • 35341, 1,159, Kraken Operating, Black Federal 33-28 3H, Oliver, t2/19; cum 119K 6/19;
  • 35340, 547, Kraken Operating, Black Federal 33-28 4TFH, Oliver, t3/19; cum 42K 6/19;
  • 35339, 1,166, Kraken Operating, Black Federal 33-28 5H, Oliver, t2/19; cum 112K 6/19;
  • 35338, 780, Kraken Operating, Black Federal 33-28 6TFH, Oliver, t2/19; cum 96K 6/19;
  • 34789, SI/NC, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HD, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 32465, SI/NC, BR, CCU Golden Creek 1-1-26TFH, Corral Creek, no production data,
Active rigs:

$54.728/15/201908/15/201808/15/201708/15/201608/15/2015
Active Rigs6257563174

RBN Energy: Columbia gas / gulf expansion boost Louisian gas inflows, part 2.
TC Energy’s Columbia Gas and Columbia Gulf natural gas transmission systems’ recent expansions out of the Northeast — the Mountaineer Xpress and Gulf Xpress projects, both completed in March — are responsible for a large portion of the uptick in Marcellus/Utica production in the last few months and they’ve added an incremental 860 MMcf/d of capacity for Appalachian gas supplies moving south to the Gulf Coast. The two projects join a number of other expansions in recent years that have inextricably tied Marcellus/Utica supply markets to attractive demand markets along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Where is that latest surge of southbound supply ending up? Today, we look at the downstream impacts of the completed projects, namely on Louisiana gas flows and LNG feedgas deliveries.