Saturday, August 20, 2016

Fracking Sand Could Go Parabolic -- Mike Filloon -- August 20, 2016

Mike Filloon: Price of Fracking Sand Could Go Parabolic

  • Frac sand pricing may have hit a bottom as demand is beginning to pick up in better US basins like the Permian
  • Mega-fracs continue to use large volumes of sand per well, with some operators now using up to 3,000 lbs/ft
  • The combination of increased locations completed in the STACK, Delaware and Midland basins with enhanced completions using up to 30,000,000 lbs per well could aid in increasing sand pricing
  • Frac sand producer stock prices have improved, significantly from earlier this year but with demand growing at its current pace there could be extended gains into year end
  • We currently own US Silica (SLCA) and think it has upside over the next twelve months, but the current refined product and crude glut could provide a buying opportunity
By the way, some years ago, Mike had an almost identical -- if not identical -- heading  -- that frack sand could go parabolic -- he predicted that for 3Q14. He also had an almost identical contribution to SeekingAlpha on November 3, 2013. So this is at least the third time, maybe fourth time, Filloon has used "parabolic" when describing where the price of sand might go.

30 million lbs is well beyond what is commonly seen in the Bakken right now. Generally, it seems, we are seeing 4 million to 10 million lbs of sand. There have been rare exceptions where significantly more proppant has been used.

A long lateral is about 9,700 feet. At 3,000 lbs / ft = 29 million lbs of proppant.

Mercedes New EV

Mercedes' new EV.
The Vision 6 has a massive 750-horsepower engine which has a range of about 200 miles on a single charge, and can hit 60 mph in under 4 seconds. It can also charge up to a range of about 60 miles in five minutes—much more efficient than the average quick-charging cellphone—so you’ll never have to worry about range anxiety as you drive from Davos to Monaco, or wherever the one percent need to get to these days.
While this concept car won’t be available for recent Maybach customers like Jay-Z to buy, it’s supposed to reflect what a high-end Mercedes will look like in the next decade or so.
(Past Maybach models, which Mercedes relaunched as a brand in 2012, have cost between $100,000 and $1 million.)
Mercedes executives likened the concept to a prized family heirloom, suggesting that it’s more than just a piece of technology that you’ll passively enjoy for a few years, and then move on to the next shiny new thing.
The high-end Tesla 3? Estimated at 340 horsepower, 300-mile range, but Elon Musk says 762 horsepower. A Supercharger can replenish half the battery in as little as 20 minutes. 0-to-60 in less than 2 seconds.

The Apple Page
OLED Explained

For the past year or so I've been reading many, many postings about "OLED" over at the Macrumors page. I've never understood what OLED was all about. [This is a typical Macrumors post on OLEDs.]

This short article in the weekend edition of The WSJ explains it all in a way that an eighth grader could understand.
They were trying to make a better organic light emitting diode. OLEDs are made up of thin layers of carbon-based molecules and conductors that emit light when an electrical current passes through them. Because screens made of OLEDs can be thinner, with higher color contrast and reduced power consumption, they are quite likely the future of displays.
The problem is, it’s tough to find molecules that can efficiently emit blue light without breaking apart from the relatively high energy demanded by blue photons. Yet blue molecules are crucial because OLEDs combine red, green and blue light to produce the colors of the rainbow. To get around this issue, companies have resorted to adding expensive metals, such as iridium, to bolster their blue OLED molecules, although stability issues persist.
That is why the scientists wanted more than a million carbon-based molecules to answer the question, “Am I blue?” Because so many molecules might give off blue light in response to electricity, and because molecules don’t sing, the chemists teamed up with computer scientists to find a way to sift through them faster.
In a published report on their results, the team says that it has found more than 1,000 new molecules that emit blue light without costly additional metals—and could make for better, cheaper OLEDs. While they were at it, the team also demonstrated how computing power can turbocharge science to enable practical advances in technology.
Alán Aspuru-Guzik, one of the scientists involved, explained that his team was able to shave several years off the laborious process of testing molecules for color and brightness. By harnessing massive computing power, he says, they were able to start lab testing molecules just four months into the project, which took about two years overall.
Much more at the link to complete the story. Very interesting.

If we're reading about it today in The WSJ, my hunch is that Tim Cook knew about this last year. 

Many, many story lines. 

But the best is this: The Wall Street Journal picked the wrong song to feature. This is so much better:

Blue, LeAnn Rimes

Quick Notes -- Including A Link To An Article On The Permian -- Nothing About The Bakken -- August 20, 2016

Politics. This is a very, very good "analysis" with regard to the current presidential campaign, Hillary vs Trump. I've always enjoyed Scott Adams. This article explains quite a bit. It's over at The Wall Street Journal.

North Dakota agriculture. Farmers in North Dakota never cease to impress me. This story is from The Bismarck Tribune.

GMO? Nope, a hybrid. Also from near Bismarck, North Dakota, but this one from KFYR-TV:
We've all heard of people who wait for hours, even days, for concert tickets, the latest video gaming system or the newest iPhone. During harvest season in North Dakota, folks line up early in the morning for Mary Graner's produce.
August 9 was one of the last days to get your hands on her famous sweet corn.
Every morning during harvest season when Mary Graner drives up with her pickup loaded with sweet corn, customers are waiting with cash in hand long before the tailgate opens.
"It's fresh, it's good, it's home grown, it's ready to eat," says Gayle Weigel, Bismarck.
Gayle Weigel shows up three times a week to buy a special variety that's only available here.
"We're the ones that called last night for 20 dozen," says Weigel.
Mary Graner has been planting a hybrid from Minnesota that customers are crazy for.
"I'm the only one that sells it, so basically it's a top secret. I don't reveal what it is," says Graner.
NBC coverage of the Olympics. It's all about streaming. This story is over at Yahoo!Finance. For the record, I watched a fair amount of the 2016 Rio Olympics, and 90% of it was through "streaming." I do not recall any commercials, although when "streaming" first came up, there was an introductory ad or two. I simply went back to blogging until the ads were over.

Bison. The Grand Canyon has a problem with a growing herd of bison on the north rim. The article is technically correct on one point, but there are some subtleties. See if you can spot what I'm talking about. If not, the answer is in this article. I'll come back to this later, if I remember.

True GRIT wheelchairs. Incredibly interesting story from the Boston Globe with some innovative wheelchairs for underdeveloped countries.  Google true grit wheelchairs MIT to get past the paywall, if necessary. In addition, that search will lead to many other articles on same subject, but I found The Boston Globe article one of the better ones.

The Mideast: Syrian bombers hit US sites, apparently injuring some Americans. The Pentagon warns Assad to "avoid" action near US and allied forces. From The Wall Street Journal.

Catching up, better late than never. Back in December, 2014, I posted links to the first and second parts of a 3-part series on the Permian. The third part had not been posted. I forgot all about it. Today, I found that third part today: